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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #401
  • Apr 17, 2025 8:28pm Apr 17, 2025 8:28pm
Just one trade today Short USD/JPY. It might head back to the last bottom, but it’s tough—too much intervention from The Fed these days. Will they be able to maintain that rate forever?

1 Unit Risk (SL) 66 pips (0.5%)
TP 3x 198 pips (1.5%)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iDaily.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15.png Size: 27 KB
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #402
  • Apr 17, 2025 10:55pm Apr 17, 2025 10:55pm
Add here
GBP/NZD today will be a good trade textbook in Range 1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.iM15.png Size: 29 KB
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #403
  • Apr 17, 2025 11:05pm Apr 17, 2025 11:05pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Just one trade today Short USD/JPY. It might head back to the last bottom, but it’s tough—too much intervention from The Fed these days. Will they be able to maintain that rate forever? 1 Unit Risk (SL) 66 pips (0.5%) TP 3x 198 pips (1.5%) {image} {image}
Exit this one. Small Loss.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-1.png Size: 27 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #404
  • Apr 17, 2025 11:34pm Apr 17, 2025 11:34pm
Someone reminded me about consolidation—thanks to them—
So today’s trade, once I came to my senses, is all about consolidation above or below the trend.
Lol

So Open:
USD/JPY Long: Risk 66 pips (0.5%), TP 198 pips (1.5%)
EUR/USD Short: Risk 45 pips (0.5%), TP 135 pips (1.5%)
USD/CHF Long: Risk 40 pips (0.5%), TP 120 pips (1.5%)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iM15.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iH1.png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iH1.png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iH1.png Size: 23 KB
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #405
  • Apr 18, 2025 12:54am Apr 18, 2025 12:54am
Houston, we are ready for takeoff, requesting permission...

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15X.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15X.png Size: 27 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #406
  • Apr 18, 2025 1:43am Apr 18, 2025 1:43am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Houston, we are ready for takeoff, requesting permission... {image} {image}
It appears the space shuttle has suffered extensive damage, the fuel hasn’t arrived yet, the shipment from Saudi Arabia is still pending, so the market is set to consolidate over a 24‑hour period.
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #407
  • Edited Apr 19, 2025 3:40am Apr 18, 2025 8:29pm | Edited Apr 19, 2025 3:40am
1/3 of The Kelly Criterion for Fx
1/3 of The aDtr 21 Days (ADR/ATR) for Fx

Continuing from this post: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15206274 we will use the latest revision of the loss risk table along with the daily target and its limits. Some regions/countries around the world use 1/3, while others adopt 1/4. For the aDtr nothing change, 1/3 of The aDtr 21 Days is max one trade Target Profit or Loss. The rough average daily movement for 28 currency pairs might be around 0.5% to 1.5% over the past 21 days, and this risk level is significantly lower than the standard Kelly criterion for Forex (Fx). So this is wisdom of this current period.

R = Remarks
How to convert pips risk & percentage risk (1 unit) into lot size : https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15183237
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aDtr.png Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 5 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #408
  • Apr 19, 2025 7:12am Apr 19, 2025 7:12am
Mix Parlay Bet365 Vs Gaming Prop Firm Challenges

A $20 mix‑parlay bet on Bet365 could turn into $400 (a 20× return), and a $100 challenge with a gaming prop firm could turn into $2,000 (also a 20× return).

Ever seen similarity like this? Yup How many trials?
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #409
  • Apr 19, 2025 9:42pm Apr 19, 2025 9:42pm
Quote
The central problem w/testing: 6 h to expound on a sentence, ŕ la Chinese Imperial examination. It favors someone fast but shallow produces competent bureaucrats & teachers. A real scholar would "sit" w/the pbm for 6 months, walking slowly, sleeping on it & plumbing the depth.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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  • #410
  • Apr 20, 2025 10:27am Apr 20, 2025 10:27am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Good info from propfirmmatch: Static 1-Step Challenges {image}
Up to this week, the keywords for existing gaming prop firm FX challenges remain #static #1-step #MT4&MT5 and #priceunder$150for25k — while there still hasn’t been any challenge offering 7% Max DD and 7% TP. Other criteria are just expensive for the sake of being complicated.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #411
  • Edited 11:01pm Apr 20, 2025 10:44pm | Edited 11:01pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Someone reminded me about consolidation—thanks to them— So today’s trade, once I came to my senses, is all about consolidation above or below the trend. Lol So Open: USD/JPY Long: Risk 66 pips (0.5%), TP 198 pips (1.5%) EUR/USD Short: Risk 45 pips (0.5%), TP 135 pips (1.5%) USD/CHF Long: Risk 40 pips (0.5%), TP 120 pips (1.5%) {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
This just consolidations attempt failed because it wasn’t aligned with the Dragon or current strategy. The trading rules were to only enter after London Open in Range 2, use a 1:1 risk-reward (RR) ratio, and limit to 2 simultaneous positions with 0.5% risk each. This time, clearly, opening 3 positions resulted in a -1.5% loss. Discipline and patience with the rules don’t guarantee wins, but without strict adherence to the rigid rules established through long-term study, losses are almost certain. The initial analysis turned out to be correct. USDJPY is still continuing to decline toward its bottom level. The statistics of a system (or method) are no longer accurate when traded/applied outside its rules.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iM15.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 7 KB
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #412
  • Edited 11:26pm Apr 20, 2025 11:10pm | Edited 11:26pm
Let’s go again Today, producing trades that comply with the most recently updated rules (with discipline and patient)

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15215450
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15217344
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15221692

Below aDtr Today, 21 pairs
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aDtr 21.png Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 4 KB
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  • #413
  • Apr 21, 2025 1:45am Apr 21, 2025 1:45am
Quote
Wait for the London Open and watch the 15 to 30 minutes that follow. It’s a timeframe rife with tricks and deception. Watch how ‘The Markets,’ this advanced supercomputer engine with a continuous auction algorithm, works.
- Anonopoulos -
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  • #414
  • Apr 21, 2025 1:54am Apr 21, 2025 1:54am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} - Anonopoulos -
Ya thanks ... I do...
Zkuld Pepper
  • #415
  • Edited 3:00am Apr 21, 2025 2:41am | Edited 3:00am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2
After London Open

EUR/AUD Long, 1 unit 0.5%, 95 pips -----> BE+1 if gain 32 pips
NZD/JPY Long, 1 unit 0.5%, 49 pips -----> BE+1 if gain 17 pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-1.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY.iM15-1.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #416
  • Apr 21, 2025 5:15am Apr 21, 2025 5:15am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 2 After London Open EUR/AUD Long, 1 unit 0.5%, 95 pips -----> BE+1 if gain 32 pips NZD/JPY Long, 1 unit 0.5%, 49 pips -----> BE+1 if gain 17 pips {image} {image}
Both trades are risk-free with narrow space from BE +1
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-2.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY.iM15-2.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #417
  • Apr 21, 2025 5:55am Apr 21, 2025 5:55am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Both trades are risk-free with narrow space from BE +1 {image} {image}
EUR/AUD hit BE+1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-3.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #418
  • Apr 21, 2025 7:36am Apr 21, 2025 7:36am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2

EUR/NZD Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 88 pips -----> BE+1 if gain 30 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iM15-1.png Size: 29 KB
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  • #419
  • Apr 21, 2025 9:19am Apr 21, 2025 9:19am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Both trades are risk-free with narrow space from BE +1 {image} {image}
NZD/JPY hit BE+1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY.iM15-3.png Size: 27 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #420
  • Apr 21, 2025 9:40am Apr 21, 2025 9:40am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 3

GBP/NZD Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 90 pips -----> BE+1 if gain 30 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.iM15-1.png Size: 31 KB
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