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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #12,581
  • Aug 2, 2007 5:04pm Aug 2, 2007 5:04pm
Next long test will be 244.00 to 244.30.

So my trading plan is to go long should 243.20 break and then short at 244.00 (add at 244.30 if it hits). There are quite a few things lying around there so that should present reasonable resistance (enough to bag a few pips anyway).

Next test will be just below 246.00 and then around 248.00. At the moment it looks like the bulls have the upperhand and that will be confirmed if 243.20 breaks.

Z
  • #12,582
  • Aug 2, 2007 5:11pm Aug 2, 2007 5:11pm
Quoting cyclone35
Long @ 242.62
becareful it could draw down a little here or go up to 244 area
  • #12,583
  • Aug 2, 2007 6:12pm Aug 2, 2007 6:12pm
Quoting tigereye
becareful it could draw down a little here or go up to 244 area
I agree. I don't think longs are confirmed until 243.20 breaks. It could still go south here.

Z
  • #12,584
  • Aug 2, 2007 6:18pm Aug 2, 2007 6:18pm
thinking about entering a long position at 242.15-30 area. This is where the 5 SMA lies on the 4hr and 38.2% from the move down from 250.8s
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #12,585
  • Aug 2, 2007 6:28pm Aug 2, 2007 6:28pm
could be a big night sqauring up for NFP tomorrow if yen unleashes her wrath again

when H1 12 bar lets go we should see 40.90 easily
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #12,586
  • Aug 2, 2007 7:02pm Aug 2, 2007 7:02pm
Quoting OrionsWay
could be a big night sqauring up for NFP tomorrow if yen unleashes her wrath again

when H1 12 bar lets go we should see 40.90 easily
By "12 bar" are you referring to Midnight EST?

M2B
  • #12,587
  • Aug 2, 2007 7:10pm Aug 2, 2007 7:10pm
Present trend lines on the 4H Chart including a potential bottom support channel line. Thoughts anyone?

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4h.jpg Size: 34 KB
  • #12,588
  • Aug 2, 2007 7:24pm Aug 2, 2007 7:24pm
bottom possible have to wait and see if it breaks too the up side if not than could go back down and tests it again
  • #12,589
  • Aug 2, 2007 7:38pm Aug 2, 2007 7:38pm
Quoting my2buoys
By "12 bar" are you referring to Midnight EST?

M2B
M2B, no sorry 12 bar 12 ma 50 bar 50 ma etc. would of said 12 day ma but was using itraday and just acustomed to saying bar meaning day average.or 12 bar average
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #12,590
  • Aug 2, 2007 7:48pm Aug 2, 2007 7:48pm
All of those thinking Long Long-term, I would be cautious... (14,3,3) Stochastics on Hourly and 4-Hour charts appear to be Overbought. It may be a good idea to trade Long on retracements due to elasticity, but between today and tomorrow, I can see a considerable drop happening.

THIS IS ONLY TRUE IF 243.00 HOLDS OUT.

Otherwise, all is fair in forex, love, and war.
  • #12,591
  • Aug 2, 2007 7:56pm Aug 2, 2007 7:56pm
Quoting kharvell
All of those thinking Long Long-term, I would be cautious... (14,3,3) Stochastics on Hourly and 4-Hour charts appear to be Overbought. It may be a good idea to trade Long on retracements due to elasticity, but between today and tomorrow, I can see a considerable drop happening.

THIS IS ONLY TRUE IF 243.00 HOLDS OUT.

Otherwise, all is fair in forex, love, and war.
agree thinking,, short @ 242.40 if goes down and long @ 243.10 either way good with me
  • #12,592
  • Aug 2, 2007 8:02pm Aug 2, 2007 8:02pm
time just ran out for buyers
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #12,593
  • Aug 2, 2007 8:26pm Aug 2, 2007 8:26pm
I dunno, looks like the same (but upside down) double bottom (or double top) that's on all the risky trades, like x/JPY and USD/CAD. Risk fears seem to be tapering, as more fundamental issues (interest rate diffs in the carry sector, commodities in USD/CAD and Aud/USD) reassert. Of course, I have been known to be wrong , and technically unless they either break through the double top/bottom formations, or get back to their pre-crash levels, trading should be lightly geared (FWIW, I'm on the side assuming risk is lessening; I may be a lot poorer next week..)
  • #12,594
  • Aug 2, 2007 8:47pm Aug 2, 2007 8:47pm
The weekly trend is clearly still up. In fact the current move has just bounced off the weekly 30 sma so there are signs it could be returning to the upside.

There is a view that August is generally a Yen month.. which could mean that we still have another week of bear action coming at least. I don't know but certainly it's something to consider...

Last time the weekly touched down to the 50 sma before resuming the bull trend.

If it is going to do the same again it means another 2 weeks of daily bear trend with a bounce back around 23600 ish. If it keeps going past there then we are in an interesting world as the weekly bull trend on the pair starts to be slightly compromised. This is a fundamental issue I guess. I think that it is unlikely while there is such a diffential on interest rates.. but really i have no idea.. (Chaos theory.. big changes often happen suddenly... for those of you who like that sort of thing...)

The current daily bull trend is compromised and slightly bearish. The 4H is clearly bearish and looking like it might turn around to retest the previous low and then who knows? Break out again to complete the move to 23600 over the next couple of weeks?

So what do i think could happen?

I would like to see price move to around 24380. Then bounce off the 38 fib on the daily move that started on 20 July.

I would like to ride it down to retest the low of 30 July (23900) and then either bounce back to resume the weekly bull trend at that point or go down again as it did last time to hit the weekly 50 sma and bounce back up to 26500... (I don't know if the fundamentals will stop this it seems very high.. but I guess everything does until it gets there..)

However, I don't really mind where it goes.. as long as it does it with momentum and doesn't ponce around like some of the other pairs..
  • #12,595
  • Aug 2, 2007 8:50pm Aug 2, 2007 8:50pm
Sorry,

I don't. Try http://forex-indicators.freefxsystem.com/home/index.php


Quoting persian.forex
do u have FRACTALS AND TLT indicator?? for mt?
  • #12,596
  • Aug 2, 2007 8:52pm Aug 2, 2007 8:52pm
Quoting mjolimer
The weekly trend is clearly still up. In fact the current move has just bounced off the weekly 30 sma so there are signs it could be returning to the upside.

There is a view that August is generally a Yen month.. which could mean that we still have another week of bear action coming at least. I don't know but certainly it's something to consider...

Last time the weekly touched down to the 50 sma before resuming the bull trend.

If it is going to do the same again it means another 2 weeks of daily bear trend with a bounce back around 23600 ish. If it keeps going past there then we are in an interesting world as the weekly bull trend on the pair starts to be slightly compromised. This is a fundamental issue I guess. I think that it is unlikely while there is such a diffential on interest rates.. but really i have no idea.. (Chaos theory.. big changes often happen suddenly... for those of you who like that sort of thing...)

The current daily bull trend is compromised and slightly bearish. The 4H is clearly bearish and looking like it might turn around to retest the previous low and then who knows? Break out again to complete the move to 23600 over the next couple of weeks?

So what do i think could happen?

I would like to see price move to around 24380. Then bounce off the 38 fib on the daily move that started on 20 July.

I would like to ride it down to retest the low of 30 July (23900) and then either bounce back to resume the weekly bull trend at that point or go down again as it did last time to hit the weekly 50 sma and bounce back up to 26500... (I don't know if the fundamentals will stop this it seems very high.. but I guess everything does until it gets there..)

However, I don't really mind where it goes.. as long as it does it with momentum and doesn't ponce around like some of the other pairs..
Wow sums everything I was thinking up and a lot better haha! I was looking at 243.20 but now looking more like 243.50 TP of my long. Then short that beast down to the 240 230 range and right on back up.
Craazy
  • #12,597
  • Aug 2, 2007 9:55pm Aug 2, 2007 9:55pm
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...u6w&refer=home
  • #12,598
  • Aug 2, 2007 10:43pm Aug 2, 2007 10:43pm
The Plan:

To make a quick 7-20 pips.

Long GBP/JPY @ 242.69
  • #12,599
  • Aug 2, 2007 11:12pm Aug 2, 2007 11:12pm
According to a posting on the main page of forexfactory (http://forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=41277), there will be a 66% drop in the nonfarm payroll announcement tomorrow. IMHO this might lead to a big demand for JPY which would make the GJ go down considerably.
Just joking..
  • #12,600
  • Aug 2, 2007 11:33pm Aug 2, 2007 11:33pm
Quoting pedro13
According to a posting on the main page of forexfactory (http://forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=41277), there will be a 66% drop in the nonfarm payroll announcement tomorrow. IMHO this might lead to a big demand for JPY which would make the GJ go down considerably.
I second that emotion. ADP Payroll came up about 48k from 143k
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