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The Swamp

  • #122,301
  • Apr 15, 2025 8:46pm Apr 15, 2025 8:46pm
Leaving a tight short here in case that wedged pops.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,302
  • Apr 15, 2025 10:29pm Apr 15, 2025 10:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
Leaving a tight short here in case that wedged pops. {image}
seems like it is happening!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,303
  • Edited 5:51am Apr 16, 2025 5:39am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting johncen
{quote} seems like it is happening!
I'm curious about 1442 too. The tariff issue is not over. The issue with following the law is another. Too many things to say. Money leaves with a wanna be king violates law. The stability of the government is being voted on with investors leaving. American investors are also putting money in other markets. The u.s. equity markets may have hit a top for a while. As long as we got an unstable guy. Who would want to build a factory? When at any moment he changes the tariffs in a deal with another country.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,304
  • Apr 16, 2025 6:05am Apr 16, 2025 6:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm curious about 1442 too. The tariff issue is not over. The issue with following the law is another. Too many things to say. Money leaves with a wanna be king violates law. The stability of the government is being voted on with investors leaving. American investors are also putting money in other markets. The u.s. equity markets may have hit a top for a while. As long as we got an unstable guy. Who would want to build a factory? When at any moment he changes the tariffs in a deal with another country.
we didnt see pa rising like before but still above 1350 bull might still in charge unless bear took us back under 1300 1275 then mayb lower
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,305
  • Apr 16, 2025 6:11am Apr 16, 2025 6:11am
Quoting johncen
{quote} we didnt see pa rising like before but still above 1350 bull might still in charge unless bear took us back under 1300 1275 then mayb lower
It took back 303 and 1313. It's also above 1340. The high in a week statistically, has a better chance on Thursday. The odds are, the high has not been reached this week yet
The odds are 1424, is not the high this week. The high or low each week has its best chance on Thursday. 68% for low, 72% for high
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,306
  • Apr 16, 2025 12:03pm Apr 16, 2025 12:03pm
328 may attract pa. But it may catch support 1336/40. Possible long if one get some verification
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,307
  • Apr 16, 2025 1:10pm Apr 16, 2025 1:10pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I’m already buying a bunch of stuff I don’t need, just in case. By the way, the whole world is watching the 10Y yield and selling dollars when the stock market drops. These correlations work for a while, until everyone starts doing the same thing, then the lights go out and there's no way out. For the newcomers.
First time when US Market drops and EUR/USD holds. Also 10yy down.

tick tock
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,308
  • Apr 16, 2025 2:21pm Apr 16, 2025 2:21pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} First time when US Market drops and EUR/USD holds. Also 10yy down. tick tock
EU 4h green pushing on the adr. Nasdaq the same on the 4h push against adr.. S/p red and below awr, testing adr.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,309
  • Apr 16, 2025 2:27pm Apr 16, 2025 2:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} EU 4h green pushing on the adr. Nasdaq the same on the 4h push against adr.. S/p red and below adr
either recession levels (/nq around 15) or buy fear makes the most sense to me personally would love to hear second opinions

can sentiment really get that much worse?
rennstimp
  • #122,310
  • Apr 16, 2025 3:12pm Apr 16, 2025 3:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Declining employment and persistent inflation make it difficult for the Fed to justify rate cuts. In fact, they may even be forced to hike, which would be bullish for the USD. However, if equity markets continue to fall, some investors will liquidate positions, reducing demand for the USD and weakening it. At the same time, declining equities push investors toward bonds, which allows bond sellers to offer lower yields. A falling yield might mislead people into thinking it's a positive signal, but it’s not. This kind of rate drop isn’t the...
Who would of thunk? Now the FED agrees with me

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powel...173002914.html
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,311
  • Apr 16, 2025 3:14pm Apr 16, 2025 3:14pm
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} either recession levels (/nq around 15) or buy fear makes the most sense to me personally would love to hear second opinions can sentiment really get that much worse?
Yeah it can get worse. The job loss is coming. We didnt lose the reputation of the U.S. in 1929. DT has done that to people in his country. Even the red state are showing doubt. Its worse out the country. Treasuries are less of a safe haven.. If that's lost the Great Depression can seem mild. The world in the 1920s was a lot more rural agricultural. Now the world sells stuff to other parts of the world. People in many places have moved to cities. They depend on commerce. City people have lost farm land and farm skills. DT pissed in the bed
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,312
  • Apr 16, 2025 3:26pm Apr 16, 2025 3:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah it can get worse. The job loss is coming. We didnt lose the reputation of the U.S. in 1929. DT has done that to people in his country. Even the red state are showing doubt. Its worse out the country. Treasuries are less of a safe haven.. If that's lost the Great Depression can seem mild. The world in the 1920s was a lot more rural agricultural. Now the world sells stuff to other parts of the world. People in many places have moved to cities. They depend on commerce. City people have lost farm land and farm skills. DT pissed in the bed...
DT's economic advisor wrote a book about tariffs. It was all fake, the quoted expert he used, was his alter ego. DT is following a fantasy based book.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,313
  • Apr 16, 2025 3:38pm Apr 16, 2025 3:38pm
Here research this. USA soybean production 2018. DT tariffs cause U.S. farmers to lose China sales. U.S. farmers were the number 1 in the world producer of soybeans. Farmers get a subsidy bailout (welfare). The tariffs left China make soybean deals with Brazil. Brazil is now the number 1 producer of soybeans. In fact they produce 2X more. What works with soybeans, can work with other exports. China is searching for U.S. replacements in other exports. Plus likely selling treasuries.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,314
  • Apr 16, 2025 3:56pm Apr 16, 2025 3:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
Here research this. USA soybean production 2018. DT tariffs cause U.S. farmers to lose China sales. U.S. farmers were the number 1 in the world producer of soybeans. Farmers get a subsidy bailout (welfare). The tariffs left China make soybean deals with Brazil. Brazil is now the number 1 producer of soybeans. In fact they produce 2X more. What works with soybeans, can work with other exports. China is searching for U.S. replacements in other exports. Plus likely selling treasuries.
so you think the nas will drop a 40-60% (from what its lost) in what time frame and what would the odds be that buying portions now would be a bad idea if not weighed against the possibility of a potential deal a decent bargin?
rennstimp
  • #122,315
  • Apr 16, 2025 7:51pm Apr 16, 2025 7:51pm
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} so you think the nas will drop a 40-60% (from what its lost) in what time frame and what would the odds be that buying portions now would be a bad idea if not weighed against the possibility of a potential deal a decent bargin?
Its possible. But before that happens I'm sure the tariffs will be lowered. The stated purpose of the tariffs is to bring industry back to the U.S. So there should be no deals to lower tem once placed. The deal crap is a guy trying is double talk bullshit. As he has done his entire life. He was seldom was called out on his bullshit. A rich kid allowed to do anything he wanted. A bully who never had a street fight. A con artist. That bond market will cut his nuts off. If the bonds are dropping causing interest rates to rise. It will dry up cash. When you are having problems selling treasuries (liquidity). That means fewer people trust you to pay the money back. This big cluster-phuck he created is causing the USA to pay more in interest (the Fed will buy treasuries, and they will sit on it's books until/if things improve). That raises borrowing cost for everyone in the USA. It means the U.S. government is paying more in interest. It means the deficit rises.. It means the DOGE 150 billion (a bullshit made up number) will be eaten up in higher interest. I dont know what damage is already done. But if it was you? Would you loan money to a 6X bankrupt con artist?
I suspect many feel they will not in the world.
His fu will dry up liquidity for everyone. That means everyone who wants to finance anything. the chain reaction is people stop buying, and countless people lose their job.
If this dumb shit dont stop. this is the future
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,316
  • Apr 16, 2025 8:08pm Apr 16, 2025 8:08pm
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} so you think the nas will drop a 40-60% (from what its lost) in what time frame and what would the odds be that buying portions now would be a bad idea if not weighed against the possibility of a potential deal a decent bargin?
He panicked about 4.5%.. Normally this isn't a reason to panic. But it this case the usd was weakening as treasuries demand was falling. Causes rates to rise. Money leaving the u.s.a. fast.
Thats drop was the pause, but in 90 days there supposed to come back.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,317
  • Apr 17, 2025 12:42am Apr 17, 2025 12:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} EU 4h green pushing on the adr. Nasdaq the same on the 4h push against adr.. S/p red and below awr, testing adr. {image} {image} {image}
Maybe we start a bit of correction. 1.12 ? back to sleep
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,318
  • Apr 17, 2025 12:43am Apr 17, 2025 12:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} DT's economic advisor wrote a book about tariffs. It was all fake, the quoted expert he used, was his alter ego. DT is following a fantasy based book.
Peter's imaginary friend ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,319
  • Apr 17, 2025 7:08am Apr 17, 2025 7:08am
6 min till euro news
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,320
  • Apr 17, 2025 7:33am Apr 17, 2025 7:33am
lol from 50 in January - Trumpoonomics

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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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