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The PriceBob Strategy

  • #601
  • Edited 9:49am Apr 15, 2025 4:04am | Edited 9:49am
Today trades
DAX: 1 (winner)
ES: 1 (loser) SL was set at previous resistance level.

Observation: so far, the mebob system performs much better on DAX than on ES*. Question: Am I picking the correct reference bar om ES?

*Exact numbers to follow after my 20 trades plan.

BT
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  • #602
  • Edited 9:47am Apr 15, 2025 7:17am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting bluesteele
Stop doing more. Start doing less, better. Master one setup Execute it with as little emotion as you possibly can Review your trades Repeat for 1 month... Repeat for 3 months That alone will take you further than 90% of traders Because you don’t need more confidence You need more evidence. Follow your system for 30 days. And watch confidence show up from focused execution of your plan. We as humans want to Overcomplicate things..Its in our DNA ! WHY ? Because we always want to control outcome and in this business that will cause you to fail 100%...
Comment below is a friendly comment.

Maaan, you are ranting for sure, show us your consecutive 20 live trades and then rant. Basically start executing on your rant.

I have been a bit more quiet for the past month making money as volatility is off the hook. Volatility is the best friend to a trader. Unbelievable times in the markets. For the hopefuls in this and other threads, these are great times to test your techniques.

Dow Futures 5 Min TF. This week ORB reference bar is most statistically viable bar at 5:55 am PST, based on stats of the last 4 weeks. +125 points.
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  • #603
  • Apr 15, 2025 9:27am Apr 15, 2025 9:27am
Hello friends, I hope you are well, today Tuesday after several weeks of testing and statistics, I have started an prop firm account trading the ORB, obtaining 15.7 profit points (ORB candle size).
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Great start, hope you have a great day
  • #604
  • Apr 15, 2025 9:44am Apr 15, 2025 9:44am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Comment below is a friendly comment. Maaan, you are ranting for sure, show us your consecutive 20 live trades and then rant. Basically start executing on your rant. I have been a bit more quiet for the past month making money as volatility is off the hook. Volatility is the best friend to a trader. Unbelievable times in the markets. For the hopefuls in this and other threads, these are great times to test your techniques. Dow Futures 5 Min TF. This week ORB reference bar is most statistically viable bar at 5:55...
Maaan,,,, thats my favorite part lol....ya sometimes I rant on...the passion and love for trading sometimes just bursts out !
I've posted and shared lots publically and privately...and the thing is...oh oh I feel a rant coming on lol..

No no,, no rant... But yes I encourage others to share their trades.. but we need to remember the way Blue trades or Driven or Vidvad
or anyone else...doesnt matter to the person looking at our charts.

It's all about how each individual executes and then manages themselves(their trade). As youve said many times the "mindfu##" whilst in a trade.
Thats the gamechanger IMO...

Anyways I'm catching myself...but just to be a good sport here ya go.

10pts and 8pts....Done

Other thoughts come to mind..... on these trades

My first ORB trade long...wicked my tp at +15....I observed the previous candles were not strong bullish candles..Wicks and bodies...
So i happily bailed at +10 and just like that price turned.... Experience ? Nuance ? call it what you will I call it just reading the PA
Then I took a single short MeBob....and price started to move quickly and into the previous days Settlement/ Close..
Having took a 1k trade...no need to be greedy and quickly took 8 pts for $400 dineros

anyways thanks for the comment
Cheers
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #605
  • Apr 15, 2025 9:45am Apr 15, 2025 9:45am
Quoting fream1
Hello friends, I hope you are well, today Tuesday after several weeks of testing and statistics, I have started an prop firm account trading the ORB, obtaining 15.7 profit points (ORB candle size). {image} Great start, hope you have a great day
Now that's Awesome ! Well done !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #606
  • Apr 15, 2025 9:49am Apr 15, 2025 9:49am
[quote=bluesteele;15218050]{quote} Maaan,,,, thats my favorite part lol....ya sometimes I rant on...the passion and love for trading sometimes just bursts out ! I've posted and shared lots publically and privately...and the thing is...oh oh I feel a rant coming on lol.. No no,, no rant... But yes I encourage others to share their trades.. but we need to remember the way Blue trades or Driven or Vidvad or anyone else...doesnt matter to the person looking at our charts. It's all about how each individual executes and then manages themselves(their trade). As youve said many times the "mindfu##" whilst in a trade. Thats the gamechanger IMO...

Controlling "mindfu##"is 50% of this business.

A small reminder, percentages assigned as to the importance to this business.

Entry - almost not important - 10%
Money Management - 40%
Mindfu##, Controlling Fear and Greed - 50%
  • #607
  • Apr 15, 2025 9:53am Apr 15, 2025 9:53am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Now that's Awesome ! Well done !
Thank you bluesteele, I have learned a lot from you
  • #608
  • Apr 15, 2025 10:00am Apr 15, 2025 10:00am
Quoting driven18
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Maaan,,,, thats my favorite part lol....ya sometimes I rant on...the passion and love for trading sometimes just bursts out ! I've posted and shared lots publically and privately...and the thing is...oh oh I feel a rant coming on lol.. No no,, no rant... But yes I encourage others to share their trades.. but we need to remember the way Blue trades or Driven or Vidvad or anyone else...doesnt matter to the person looking at our charts. It's all about how each individual executes and
...
Whatever percent it is...I agree it's a large percent...

And here's what I like about simple... Simple should be easily executable... And when a trader starts to execute simple setups over and over...fear lessens and confidence gains.

All part of that mindf###... And when one gets positive results from religiously executing the confidence grows and thst voice in our head quiets down a bit and is easier to manage... As we know from experience now ..it's entry stop loss take profit...

So if mindf### is 60% 70% 80% or whatever we best learn to deal with that.... But first we need to execute and execute something with edge or discover edge as we are executing....

We can't have one without the other... Get our minds all straight means nothing without ruthlessly pulling the trigger every single day to gain that confidence...

Maaan don't trigger me cuz I just can't help myself yapping lol..... Love the business long time

Cheers
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #609
  • Apr 15, 2025 10:04am Apr 15, 2025 10:04am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote}{quote} Whatever percent it is...I agree it's a large percent... And here's what I like about simple... Simple should be easily executable... And when a trader starts to execute simple setups over and over...fear lessens and confidence gains. All part of that mindf###... And when one gets positive results from religiously executing the confidence grows and thst voice in our head quiets down a bit and is easier to manage... As we know from experience now ..it's entry stop loss take profit... So if mindf### is 60% 70% 80% or whatever we best...
Wrong. Edge is your MM and Control of Fear and Greed.

That is the edge that 95% of the hopefuls will never get. Takes years of hard work and especially working within yourself/within your mind.
  • #610
  • Apr 15, 2025 10:25am Apr 15, 2025 10:25am
I posted this a few weeks ago...I will defer any discussion of edge to Lance B. He's made verifiable $60 mill +++ mostly trading a 2min chart from what I understand..

Lance you have the floor




I am sharing this from Lance Breitstein's Magnus Opus course. This is from the free membership area where he has a lot of great great info(videos)..

I am not an affiliate just a trader who recognizes Lance's talent and performance...So no link to the Magnum Opus
....let Google do the work.

There has been much chatter regarding Edge from many on the forum and I have seen no one assemble any type of qualified information on it.

So if you don't like what I share or question it's legitimacy go talk to Lance and tell him he's wrong.
I have assembled the below from several different videos of Lance's to have all the pertinent info on edge in one place.

MeBob traders take note and read carefully what Lance says...
see how focusing on trading a fixed TF setup can set you in the correct direction.

And how Vidvad has structured this thread and his videos to reflect or should I say follow in some resemblance what Lance is referring to.

MeBob can help you find your edge.. If you understand that then you are on your way


What is Edge?


In trading, having an "edge" means your trades have positive expectancy, meaning over time they should be profitable. However, many new traders fail because they lack a true edge and confuse random market fluctuations with skill. Success or failure often feels random, like flipping a coin, with wins attributed to good trading and losses blamed on vague factors like lack of discipline. The real issue is that many strategies are either break-even or unprofitable, and traders misinterpret streaks of wins or losses as indicators of their abilities. It's important to regularly assess whether your strategies actually have a long-term edge or if you're just getting lucky

LACK OF EDGE = BEING FOOLED BY THE RANDOMNESS OF THE MARKET

Developing Strategies with Edge Comes First

Lance emphasizes the importance of prioritizing strategy development over psychology and risk management for beginner traders. Many novices mistakenly attribute their failures to emotional factors like overtrading or tilt, while the real issue often lies in a lack of a well-defined strategy or trading edge. The analogy of a poker player learning the psychology of the game before understanding hands and odds illustrates this point. Without a proven edge, no amount of psychology or risk management can yield success. Beginners are encouraged to first define, playbook, and backtest specific trades, ensuring they have a reliable foundation before focusing on other aspects.

Once a strategy with edge is developed, traders can begin paper trading or trading small sizes while collecting and analyzing data. Only after accumulating data points and refining execution can they assess their performance objectively, focusing on rule adherence rather than blaming emotions or randomness.

The overarching message is clear: edge is the cornerstone of trading success. Psychology and risk management, while important, should only be addressed meaningfully after a trader has mastered the foundational strategies that generate consistent profitability.

Types of Edge in Trading

The phrase "the house always wins" refers to the advantage casinos have over players due to the odds being stacked in their favor, much like how traders need an edge to be consistently profitable. An edge is a factor that increases the long-term expectancy of success, and there are several types of edges that traders can exploit, stemming from market inefficiencies and dynamics.

These include:

Information edges
Having access to exclusive news, data or analysis insights
Having access to proprietary research
The ability to process, analyze large amounts of Data
Insider trading

Technological edges
Using advanced trading systems for faster execution
Low latency trading platforms
Co-located servers
Algorithmic trading systems
Keyboard hotkeys

Analytical edges
The ability to analyze market patterns, trends, new stories or data better than others
Developing proprietary trading strategies
Developing advanced statistical analysis
Having a Deep understanding of Market Dynamics

Psychological edges
Strong discipline, Emotional Control/Management , Risk management
Trade without being influenced by Fear, Greed or Cognitive Biases

Other edges include liquidity edges (access to deeper liquidity pools) and structural edges (exploiting market inefficiencies like arbitrage).

Traders often combine several different edges to gain a competitive advantage, as financial markets are not perfectly efficient, and small advantages can lead to significant profits.


How to Test for Edge

Key strategies for testing edge include backtesting (using historical data), forward testing (gathering data in real time), and identifying variables with predictive power (such as news, volatility, and volume). Lance also highlights the significance of structural edges, such as access to unique trading opportunities or information. By combining these methods and using experience and pattern recognition, traders can evaluate their strategies and improve their chances of success.



I think Lance makes some very good points in the above and perhaps sheds some light on "edge" and the different types of edges there are.

MeBob=Gathering Data in real time and identifying performance variables. We take the trades in a very rule based systematic way and analyze FIRSTLY our PROCESS....Not the OUTCOMES of the trades....
Are we following the Rules ? Are we executing properly? Perhaps using Hotkeys ?

The simplicity of the Basic MeBob can help your discipline when you have easy rule based entries etc. It's easier to follow simpler methods and thus keep them rinse and repeatable/duplicatable.

Which is why VidVad encouraged traders to take 20 trades .or 20 days and just trade the setups as they come.....
Tom Hougaard uses several different setups that are time based much like MeBob...simple If this then that type of scenarios....
Money mgmt is a big part of any method like this and most likely where you will find edge that you can manipulate...


All the best as always !
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #611
  • Apr 15, 2025 10:33am Apr 15, 2025 10:33am
Quoting bluesteele
I posted this a few weeks ago...I will defer any discussion of edge to Lance B. He's made verifiable $60 mill +++ mostly trading a 2min chart from what I understand.. Lance you have the floor I am sharing this from Lance Breitstein's Magnus Opus course. This is from the free membership area where he has a lot of great great info(videos).. I am not an affiliate just a trader who recognizes Lance's talent and performance...So no link to the Magnum Opus ....let Google do the work. There has been much chatter regarding...
The only GURU I respect is Mark Douglas. I studied him relentlessly as he preaches(d) the edge, if achieved, is a "success" in this business.

The record that 95% of traders will eventually be loosers or quit, is very accurate.

95% look for indicators, 5% can control "mindfu##", the Edge.
  • #612
  • Apr 15, 2025 10:40am Apr 15, 2025 10:40am
Does’t this belong in the Trader Lounge section or Trader Discussion section?
  • #613
  • Apr 15, 2025 8:49pm Apr 15, 2025 8:49pm
Pricebobbing for oil ... a little back test of the 60 minute CL chart using the 8 AM to 9 AM Eastern time bar as the reference range.

Inserted Video
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #614
  • Apr 15, 2025 11:09pm Apr 15, 2025 11:09pm
PriceBobbin'

I like that moniker

Just watched Vidvad's latest video,,,,and thought I would share a few of my notes in regards to Pit Opens.
I have used these Pit Opens successfully the last number of years for trading OR(Opening Range) IB (Initial Balance) setups
of various futures/commodities.

So in Mebob and the "spirit of the thread" we are using a fixed bar... So now what if the bar is a 60 min bar like the Oil video above.
Or a 5 min bar like MeBob... Nothing is set in stone..and maybe you want to use a 5min Mebob bar as your setup and you trade off
the 1min chart.. Once the 5min range is set you use the close of a 1min bar that closes outside of the 5 min range.

Or you use a 60 min range...1hr bar...and that 1 hr in futures trading is considered the IB Initial Balance...and maybe you use that
60 min range but execute off a 5 min chart...Say for ex..the 5 min close outside of that range is your trigger.

Many many ways to trade...as TimeTells always says ...There is no right or wrong way,,,, If it works for you thats all that matters.
The idea here though is to keep it simple using a fixed bar setup..with a trigger bar...

And generally a BO type of system like this is often best done when the markets move..volume comes in,,,That typically is the open
and there are other times of the day as well that will work.... But for this post I am referencing the Pit Open times.

Even though the pits for the most part have closed and all is electronic... There Opens still to this day are when volume heats up.
So for a trader to take advantage of this .... It may be wise to structure a method a setup around the open...whether its a 5 min range
15 min range 30 min range...or a 60 min range.... They all work tbh...but you are the determing factor,

Anyways here are some Pit opening times for those not familiar with them.. These can be ideal times to frame a fixed bar method around.
What this does is give you structure to only trade at certain times...and for those not trading US sessions.. The same applies for UK and Asia.
They all have their own open times.

Here's a couple different lists from my notes on the various opens..Even some currencies too.. Note the Aussi ..Strange eh ! lol


Coffee 8:00 am
Cocoa 8:00 am

Copper: 8:10 am
Sugar: 8:10 am

Gold: 8:20 am
30-Year Bonds: 8:20 am
5-Year Bonds: 8:20 am
10-Year Bonds: 8:20 am

Silver: 8:25 am

Crude oil: 9:00 am
Heating oil: 9:00 am
Natural Gas: 9:00 am
Unleaded: 9:00 am

Indices : 9:30 am

Wheat: 9:30 am
Soybeans: 9:30 am
Corn: 9:30 am

Pit Session Times

  1. E-Mini S&P 500: 9:30 am – 4:15 pm ET
  2. E-Mini Nasdaq: 9:30 am – 4:15 pm ET
  3. E-Mini Dow: 9:30 am – 4:15 pm ET

After market hours: 4:30 pm – 5:15 pm ET; 6 pm – 9:30 am ET

  1. Gold: 8:20 am – 1:30 pm ET
  2. Silver: 8:25 am – 1:25 pm ET
  3. Copper: 8:10 am – 1:00 pm ET

  1. Crude oil: 9 am – 2:30 pm ET
  2. Crude oil – Heating oil spread: 9 am – 2:30 pm ET
  3. Heating oil: 9 am – 2:30 pm ET
  4. Natural Gas: 9 am – 2:30 pm ET
  5. Unleaded: 9 am – 2:30 pm ET

  1. Dollar Index: 8:00 am – 3:00 pm ET
  2. Euro: 8:20 am – 3:00 pm ET
  3. British Pound: 8:20 am – 3:00 pm ET
  4. Australian Dollar: 8:00 am – 3:00 pm ET

  1. Treasury Bonds: 8:20 am – 3:00 pm ET
  2. Treasury Notes: 8:20 am – 3:00 pm ET

  1. Wheat: 9:30 am – 2:15 pm ET
  2. Soybeans: 9:30 am – 2:15 pm ET
  3. Corn: 9:30 am – 2:15 pm ET



So if you want to trade for example a 5min ORB use these times to frame your 5min Open. Some of these markets do tend to perform
better with a 5min orb than others... Check them out

Tues night ramble done
Blue

Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #615
  • Edited 9:32am Apr 16, 2025 4:35am | Edited 9:32am
Today Trades
DAX: 1 trade (loser)
ES: just entered short, based on reference candle. *Update*: losing trade, refer to chart.
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  • #616
  • Apr 16, 2025 8:27am Apr 16, 2025 8:27am
@vidvad, funny story, I was listening to Vivaldi on youtube, doing my market prep and when I looked at the open bookmarks on top of the Google bar, instead of Vivaldi, I thought I saw vidvad...I was like, WTF? gave me a little pause
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  • #617
  • Apr 16, 2025 8:53am Apr 16, 2025 8:53am
ORB long, reversed to short on the confirmed ORB failure. Added on confirm lower, took profits at 4 ticks above the opening pivotal level.

Now back to the work-a-day grind. Good trading to all, fellow Pricebobbers!

Inserted Video
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #618
  • Apr 16, 2025 9:36am Apr 16, 2025 9:36am
Quoting vidvad
ORB long, reversed to short on the confirmed ORB failure. Added on confirm lower, took profits at 4 ticks above the opening pivotal level. Now back to the work-a-day grind. Good trading to all, fellow Pricebobbers! https://youtu.be/CJHrp6buRdM
Hi Vidvad, are you and I trading the same reference candle on ES?
  • #619
  • Apr 16, 2025 10:00am Apr 16, 2025 10:00am
Quoting vidvad
ORB long, reversed to short on the confirmed ORB failure. Added on confirm lower, took profits at 4 ticks above the opening pivotal level. Now back to the work-a-day grind. Good trading to all, fellow Pricebobbers! https://youtu.be/CJHrp6buRdM
Very nice to see and learn from. Nothing wrong with taking 4 / 5 points if they are handed to you.
As i wrote in reply to Blue, 2x5 = 1x10, ie. small steps get you there as well and are easier to accomplish.
Patience and stepping aside if things don't move along .. Looking at my screen there are already 23pts (3+5+5+10) on the meBob M1-table

Currently i'm looking at the meBob level in conjunction with the round numbers (5 multiples) enter on the 5 level closest to the meBob level and ride to the next 5.
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  • #620
  • Apr 16, 2025 1:07pm Apr 16, 2025 1:07pm
Quoting vidvad
ORB long, reversed to short on the confirmed ORB failure. Added on confirm lower, took profits at 4 ticks above the opening pivotal level. Now back to the work-a-day grind. Good trading to all, fellow Pricebobbers! https://youtu.be/CJHrp6buRdM
Hi Vidvad, were you entering a trade on the first 5 minute candle? Maybe I am seeing this all wrong but I get confused after seeing this trade in relation to your first post.

Can you elaborate?

Quote
A more detailed explanation follows below:
Quote
1. The US stock market index opens at 09:30am New York local time.
2. The 5-min reference bar to wait for is the 10:05am–10:10am bar.
3. This is the 8th 5min bar into the regular trading session.
4. Observe the high and the low of the reference bar.
5. Draw a horizontal line through the high of the reference bar.
6. Draw a horizontal line through the low of the reference bar.
7. If the SP500 closes above the high of the reference bar “highest line”, it is a BUY signal.
8. If the SP500 closes below...
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