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The PriceBob Strategy

  • #561
  • Apr 10, 2025 9:44am Apr 10, 2025 9:44am
Volume is batty isn't it? This is less than half an hour !!
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #562
  • Apr 10, 2025 10:01am Apr 10, 2025 10:01am
Quoting turnip15
Volume is batty isn't it? This is less than half an hour !! {image}
Turnip, if i may ask. Are you entering on the M5 or M1?
Dare i also assume you are going for the short runs (like Vidvad)?

Tia & cheers
  • #563
  • Apr 10, 2025 12:09pm Apr 10, 2025 12:09pm
Got humbled today on es, using the regular mebob rules. Did you guys using vidvads concepts survive?
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  • #564
  • Apr 10, 2025 2:39pm Apr 10, 2025 2:39pm
Quoting turnip15
Volume is batty isn't it? This is less than half an hour !! {image}
Hi Turnip would be interested to see your chart of this
  • #565
  • Edited 3:13pm Apr 10, 2025 2:46pm | Edited 3:13pm
Quoting fkronloff
Got humbled today on es, using the regular mebob rules. Did you guys using vidvads concepts survive? {image}
Hi Fk,
Caveat, i do not do futures (yet) so what i see on my cfd chart might differ, to what extend is difficult to say.
Since there is more than 1 way to skin a cat i opted for the way of the M1 entry .. ;-)
Despite the fact i'm not (currently) looking at the M5 for entries i do like Vidvads suggestion to go for anything between 5-10 points (my interpretation), To me it makes statistically more sense to grab 5 trades making 25 points in total than aiming for one 25 point trade. I will do the numbers someday (not just yet) but something tells me this will probably be quicker and i reckon one will be at risk shorter as well (this is assuming normal mkt behaviour ;-)).

When i pull up the meBox on a M1 chart i can see the following:
- Short around 10:11 for roughly 5-10p (definitely no loss) but may have been a tad close to the creation of the meBox
- Long on box break (strong upward momentum) @ 10:25 that could have yielded a 1-2p plus or scratch
- Long 10:31 or 10:33 at boxbreak again or 'normal' entry would have easily hit 10-15 points
- Short @ 10:56 for another 10p
- Last (monster?) short around 11:13 for another 10p or a home run, depending on your strategy to run a trade (on my chart the first higher high on a bull candle was at 11:26 which could have yielded 25p .. )

Obviously trading is somewhat subjective (to put it mildly judging by the number of threads on FF) but the meBob, small takes and a M1 entry is starting to look pretty decent to me.
My 2c
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  • #566
  • Apr 11, 2025 3:48am Apr 11, 2025 3:48am
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} Hi Turnip would be interested to see your chart of this
Not a Mebob trade but my own approach. I was simply commenting on volatility.
Mebob is great though, don't forget to do twenty trades
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #567
  • Edited 9:24am Apr 11, 2025 3:50am | Edited 9:24am
Today trades
DAX: 1 (winner)
ES: 1 (winner)
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  • #568
  • Apr 11, 2025 3:53am Apr 11, 2025 3:53am
A weeks break for me from today. Enjoy the weekend and be careful out there. Done your twenty trades yet?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #569
  • Apr 11, 2025 4:39am Apr 11, 2025 4:39am
Quoting turnip15
A weeks break for me from today. Enjoy the weekend and be careful out there. Done your twenty trades yet? {image}
Not yet 20 trades. Account up 5%.

BT
  • #570
  • Apr 11, 2025 5:08am Apr 11, 2025 5:08am
What other instruments than es can be traded using the mebob, and what are the mebob candle times for those instruments?

I have possibly found a working variant of the mebob, but it finds trades relatively rarely, therefore trading it on multiple symbols would help.
  • #571
  • Apr 11, 2025 9:19am Apr 11, 2025 9:19am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Not a Mebob trade but my own approach. I was simply commenting on volatility. Mebob is great though, don't forget to do twenty trades
DAX: 12 trades so far, up 6,3%.
  • #572
  • Edited Apr 12, 2025 8:46am Apr 11, 2025 2:32pm | Edited Apr 12, 2025 8:46am
Quoting fkronloff
What other instruments than es can be traded using the mebob, and what are the mebob candle times for those instruments? I have possibly found a working variant of the mebob, but it finds trades relatively rarely, therefore trading it on multiple symbols would help.
Some possible reference ranges I've tested include M15 and M30 NQ before the 9:30 NYSE open, various ranges on M15 and M20 on bonds, and M60 bars on Gold.

This approach is simple has multiple possibilities.

Test, test, test.

But first, have a hypothesis.

The hypothesis is simply identifying and defining a reference bar.

Then test it.

Driven has found some favorable edges on the YM, I believe. Choose a bar, and then test.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #573
  • Apr 11, 2025 2:36pm Apr 11, 2025 2:36pm
Quoting fkronloff
Got humbled today on es, using the regular mebob rules. Did you guys using vidvads concepts survive? {image}
Mebob told me there'd be days like this.

I'd suggest sizing DOWN. These ranges are crazy.

2016 and 2027 we had WEEKLY ES ranges less than many of these five minute candles. This week's ranhe almost 700 points I believe.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #574
  • Apr 11, 2025 5:54pm Apr 11, 2025 5:54pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Mebob told me there'd be days like this. I'd suggest sizing DOWN. These ranges are crazy. 2016 and 2027 we had WEEKLY ES ranges less than many of these five minute candles. This week's ranhe almost 700 points I believe.
Hi Vidvad

Can I mention the reason for this large volatility at present. Many here know I am an Ask / Bid imbalance trader where I trade liquidity before I trade actual price because I see price as a lagging indicator.
Normally on ES during the first hour of trading the New York session, we expect to see anywhere from 30 to 80 limit order contracts sitting on the price ladder at each level. Interesting back in 2010, we used to see 200-400 contracts per level but Algorithmic trading changed that. These are from liquidity providers and Algorithmic trading firms doing their business every day. Presently because of the high VIX number due to Trumps actions, many of these firms have withdrawn liquidity from the markets and are sitting on the back ground only hitting the market with aggressive market orders instead.
Therefore when an average side order on ES (2-10 lots) appears on the tape, it normally doesn’t move the market 1 Tick. However during this week, I witnessed occasions where there was only 4 or 5 contracts per level total. Therefore any retail trader trading say 10 contracts can easily move ES a few ticks briefly.
ES at times was broken.
But it’s better than NQ.

There were times (briefly I admit) when No one had a single contract on the tape. - Zero

I have never seen that before ever.

Therefore it’s not the volume of current markets moving price soo much, it’s the lack of liquidity to support the market that’s causing this wild volatility.

In layman’s terms, if you place a limit order on the tape at present, you will be run over and destroyed.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #575
  • Apr 12, 2025 7:25pm Apr 12, 2025 7:25pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Many here know I am an Ask / Bid imbalance trader where I trade liquidity before I trade actual price because I see price as a lagging indicator.
I've learned a lot from market wizard Linda Raschke. She recently argued in this podcast that there is really no way to know what the order book really has (or doesn't have) at every level up and down.

Inserted Video


"If you think you can see the book you are 100% wrong because 95% of it is hidden," - Linda Raschke

Volume has been running at or above where it was before the Trump Tariff rout began.

Even Navinder Sarao, the alleged "flash crash" trader, who started trading using the ladder in 2003, had realized it was largely corrupted as early as 2008, due to HFT and other professional spoofing and "front running" algorithmic traders. which is why he hired Trading Technologies to program his algorithmic trading capabilities.

I don't agree that price lags. Price is. It is the only thing that is ever real. "Price is truth," - Al Brooks.

If Linda Raschke, trading hundreds of millions of dollars, thinks that strict TA and price action is all we really have, then I'd not argue with her.

What we see now we've seen before: during the Dot com bust, during the great financial crisis of 2007-9, the Covid crash, during brief periods during the baby bear market of 2022-23, and now the Trump debacle. "Volatility" = range expansion. Has nothing to do with the second to second "order book, most of which is hidden from the average market participant.

2016 and 2017 we saw the opposite, massive range contraction. Weekly bars in 2016 were often times smaller in range than 5 minute bars are currently. Nothing to do with the order book. Volumes intraday on the ES very consistent across vol regimes.

Honestly, I'm going to side with Linda Raschke on this one, and assume that we should stick to technical analysis or pure price action for our edges.

It's nice to dream of being able to magically read the second-by-second dances of the DOM, but fixed bar methods are infinitely more likely to yield a tradable, consistently profitable edge.

In this thread we'll stick to what we can see. If 95% of the order book is always and forever hidden until the moment of execution, as Linda Raschke tells us that based on her nearly 50 years of full time trading, then price not only doesn't lag, as you suggest, but price itself is in fact the only leading indicator to which we have access.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #576
  • Edited 8:52pm Apr 12, 2025 7:37pm | Edited 8:52pm
Quoting fkronloff
What other instruments than es can be traded using the mebob, and what are the mebob candle times for those instruments? I have possibly found a working variant of the mebob, but it finds trades relatively rarely, therefore trading it on multiple symbols would help.
I've posted similar charts to this over the past three years here at FF. The basic template is my "Stacey Bruke" template and anyone even the least bit familiar with his youtube channel will recognize the three timing windows.

In this chart of the 6E (eurusd futures) I simply added the M30 OR to each of the three sessions.

Hypothesis = The opening 30 minutes of each of the timing windows might offer a fixed bar reference that cana be used to enter trades in the direction of the breakout of that range.

Experiment: That means you must test your hypothesis, over and over. Twenty days of trades in the live market (SIM account is fine, but you must be doing live execution using live real time data). It is a simple process. Where most of us screw up is that though it is a simple process, following the process, trusting the process, is not so easy. We fight the process. We fight ourselves.

We must be like scientists, applying the scientific method to our research, and we must NOT have a stake in the outcome. Our only interest must be to test our hypothesis so we can discover if our hypothesis is true or is it false.

If it is true, Eureka! we have found it. If it is false, we discard it, and then based on our tests, i.e. our experiments, we compose a new hypothesis, with a new series of tests, and we continue, like Thomas Edison trying out 10,000 different substances to see which if any will work for an incandescent light bulb.

We are scientists here. Our field of study is price action, with a specialty in fixed bar methods and breakout mode formations.
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #577
  • Apr 12, 2025 9:10pm Apr 12, 2025 9:10pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} I've learned a lot from market wizard Linda Raschke. She recently argued in this podcast that there is really no way to know what the order book really has (or doesn't have) at every level up and down. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WILZ...annel=Edgewonk "If you think you can see the book you are 100% wrong because 95% of it is hidden," - Linda Raschke Volume has been running at or above where it was before the Trump Tariff rout began. Even Navinder Sarao, the alleged "flash crash" trader, who started trading...
Great video, thanks. Impressive woman.
  • #578
  • Edited 5:33am Apr 13, 2025 1:26am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} I've learned a lot from market wizard Linda Raschke. She recently argued in this podcast that there is really no way to know what the order book really has (or doesn't have) at every level up and down. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WILZ...annel=Edgewonk "If you think you can see the book you are 100% wrong because 95% of it is hidden," - Linda Raschke Volume has been running at or above where it was before the Trump Tariff rout began. Even Navinder Sarao, the alleged "flash crash" trader, who started trading...
Hi Vidvad

"If you think you can see the book you are 100% wrong because 95% of it is hidden," - Linda Raschke
CME places 100% of all limit orders on their books with ES, there is NO dark pools here.

"Volume has been running at or above where it was before the Trump Tariff rout began"
I don't think many traders here understand liquidity (I didn’t for years either). Volume has been high (Market Orders) but Limit orders have been about 1/5th normal levels or lower. It’s the Low Liquidity that's causing these wild moves not high volume. Volume dues not help us understand liquidity levels basically.


Even Navinder Sarao, the alleged "flash crash" trader, who started trading using the ladder in 2003, had realized it was largely corrupted as early as 2008, due to HFT and other professional spoofing and "front running" algorithmic traders. which is why he hired Trading Technologies to program his algorithmic trading capabilities.

Now you're talking about my trading hero and the first one to prove price actually lags the Order Book. What he was doing was placing large EA Selling orders on one side of the tape to activate the BUYING PROGRAMS from HFT players and then manually place trades on the other side manually of the book which were real trades. The reason he used Algo's was he wanted to place a large order (say $10 Million Sell) about 5 levels higher on the book and ensure it would delete itself about 1 Tick before execution. Only an Algo could do this.
Then he had 1-5 seconds to place a Manual Buy orders on the market and ride it up to his large Sell order.
Price therefore lags Ask/Bid imbalance by 1-5 seconds

"2016 and 2017 we saw the opposite, massive range contraction. Weekly bars in 2016 were often times smaller in range than 5 minute bars are currently. Nothing to do with the order book. Volumes intraday on the ES very consistent across vol regimes"
If there is NO Ask/Bid imbalance on ES, Type A Algrothm's which were coded 20 years ago approx. can't move price. There was obviously no Market Order traders prepared to push their button either so a stalemate occurred. Very Low Volume with high liquidity causes No Execution.

What we see now we've seen before: during the Dot com bust, during the great financial crisis of 2007-9, the Covid crash, during brief periods during the baby bear market of 2022-23, and now the Trump debacle. "Volatility" = range expansion. Has nothing to do with the second to second "order book, most of which is hidden from the average market participant.
Again we are talking about the ES market. ES is all about the Order Book because that is what Future's Markets are all about - Ask's & Bid's which are 100% visible.
I traded ES during the Covid crash and again Liquidity disappeared to levels half we see today. During the Flash Crash, Bids were withdrawn to almost nothing by market makers causing that massive crash on that day. It was the Order Book failure that caused the flash crash.
The failure of the ES Orderbook brought down the whole entire Stock Market on that day back in 2010. There is plenty of agreement on this fact.

"It's nice to dream of being able to magically read the second-by-second dances of the DOM, but fixed bar methods are infinitely more likely to yield a tradable, consistently profitable edge."
No one can claim they can read the tape second by second and do a magical dance. I don't claim that either and spend much of the trading day going "what the fuck" before I see an edge. However the DOM can give us an opportunity to see small trading edges around areas of important levels and also times when there is high ask / Bid Imbalance readings. Look at the videos from SMB Capital where they talk about skills needed to profit from trading with a Tape. They focus only when price is around important levels then use the Tape to time their entry into the market with skill. They are using the Tape data that shows where price is lagging order flow- it may only be for a period but its still enough for a strong edge.
Those guys have made hundreds of millions of dollars with their Tape reading skills - ie. Price lags Order Flow

The important factor here is Price Lags Ask/ Bid Imbalances but it’s not always visible. It’s visible mostly around important levels and when the Ask/ Bid imbalance grows greater than 20%.

The Tape is a beast, but if we fail to dance with wolfs, we fail to be brave enough to see what other don't want us to see - the Algo's actually trading for real
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #579
  • Apr 13, 2025 7:50am Apr 13, 2025 7:50am
Quoting vidvad
I posted this screenshot from Linda Raschke's Streetsmarts book in my journal a few weeks ago and it has relevance here. 1) MeBob is itself not an element of what is generally considered "technical analysis." The MeBob methodology is a precise set up that gets you into and out of the market quickly. It is a "surgical strike" methodology. 2) It is important initially to trade a new concept or patter on paper or with what Al Brooks calls the "Do Not Care" size. You must remove the psychological and emotional pressure of the possibility of losing money...
Couldn't agree more! i have the book as well, care to share which was the strategy that u use on NQ?
  • #580
  • Edited 11:19am Apr 13, 2025 9:13am | Edited 11:19am
Quoting RickM
{quote}"If you think you can see the book you are 100% wrong because 95% of it is hidden," - Linda Raschke CME places 100% of all limit orders on their books with ES, there is NO dark pools here.
Hi rick, from reading just this first sentence from your post I see that you didn't listen to Linda Raschke's explanation. Therefore, you are not accounting for the 95% of bids and offers that she argues isn't showing in the public order book.

And to be honest, this thread here is a simple thread about simply using fixed bar methods and breakout mode formations to identify simple, rule-based surgical strike trading set ups based on nothing but price, so whatever you have to say about liquidity and volume and order flow is not relevant and tbh can only distract us from the focus of this particular thread.

One suggestion I'd like to make to you is that you record a live video of you using the order book to day trade ES and upload it to youtube for us to see what it is you speak of in action, similar to what I've done throughout this thread (using mebob, orb, and breakout mode, as "order flow" is quite beyond the scope of my knowledge and abilities).

In fact, that would make for an interesting systems thread here at FF. I encourage you to start such a discussion thread, with real life examples showing us how you use all this esoteric information to day trade the CME futures.

As for me, I'm just a simple guy, looking for simple methods that don't require any rocket science and alchemy. But I'd watch your live trading videos for sure! As Nike says, "Just do it!"

Swooooooooooooooooosh!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
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