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The Swamp

  • #122,241
  • Apr 11, 2025 2:46pm Apr 11, 2025 2:46pm
"Euro FX COT 4/8/25: Non-Commercial net long climbs to 43k (+8.8k), adding longs. Commercial shorts hit 551k, net -73k. OI jumps 23k—biggest move since March. Non-Reportable steady. EUR/USD breakout or trap? What’s your read?"
  • #122,242
  • Apr 11, 2025 2:53pm Apr 11, 2025 2:53pm
Quoting FT.Trader
"Euro FX COT 4/8/25: Non-Commercial net long climbs to 43k (+8.8k), adding longs. Commercial shorts hit 551k, net -73k. OI jumps 23k—biggest move since March. Non-Reportable steady. EUR/USD breakout or trap? What’s your read?"
That looks bullish to me. Taking my longs home for the weekend
  • #122,243
  • Apr 11, 2025 5:52pm Apr 11, 2025 5:52pm
The close was above 1.1240.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,244
  • Apr 11, 2025 6:49pm Apr 11, 2025 6:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
The close was above 1.1240. {image}
Unless something crazy happens the top of that blue box may act like 1313 did. It looks like 1442 will be challenged. As long as pa stays above 1303 1313. The week average range is over 200 pips, this week almost 3X at 594. 11 days into this month and already 2X the average month. An average quarter (649) was at 1.1436. An average 6 month at 864 pips.. we are at 1296 pips so far. Needles to say pa is well past average. 1691 is a year average. That's 1.187X area.
Next week if the upper blue box 1570ish stops a rise. 1340 may be a tp. It may be a place to long later too. EU pa like 100 pips. 1340 and 1442 are in that 100 pip range. 1440 can resist. There is likely liquidity in the larger institutions being mopped up here in that blue box. It can pop out any direction and not look back
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,245
  • Apr 11, 2025 7:45pm Apr 11, 2025 7:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Unless something crazy happens the top of that blue box may act like 1313 did. It looks like 1442 will be challenged. As long as pa stays above 1303 1313. The week average range is over 200 pips, this week almost 3X at 594. 11 days into this month and already 2X the average month. An average quarter (649) was at 1.1436. An average 6 month at 864 pips.. we are at 1296 pips so far. Needles to say pa is well past average. 1691 is a year average. That's 1.187X area. Next week if the upper blue box 1570ish stops a rise. 1340 may be a tp. It may...
closed above 1340 and 1300. Could be potential h&s on short time frame?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,246
  • Apr 11, 2025 8:33pm Apr 11, 2025 8:33pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} closed above 1340 and 1300. Could be potential h&s on short time frame?
Yess, 1234 -1240 legs, Them North
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #122,247
  • Apr 11, 2025 8:48pm Apr 11, 2025 8:48pm
Quoting fxcontest
{quote} Yess, 1234 -1240 legs, Them North
max 1.11 though i doubt it
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,248
  • Apr 11, 2025 9:21pm Apr 11, 2025 9:21pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} max 1.11 though i doubt it
This 1/4 can reach for 802 still. A top is needed. Plus the tariffs dont favor the usd with equities and treasuries dropping. 4.5% was trump's uncle level earlier this week. He is playing with fire. In 1980 the prime rate was above 20%. If it gets away from him in a market drop capitulation. It could quickly get out of hand well above 4.5. By the time congress acts it could be a lot higher. Think about it. If it got away to 9%. The s/p may lose 1/2 its value. China will just sell that much faster to make a point. Millions of U.S. business would close the doors. Laying off tens of millions. Congress needs to take the keys away. Not to mention stagflation. This would destroy the world economy for a decade or more.
This usd drop is because the world lost confidence in the U.S. Because we have a moron leader. Its reflected in the drop in treasury demand. A layup normally when stocks drop. He fucked up the system that made to usd a reserve currency. We are viewed as unstable. This wasn't me saying it. it's the price.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,249
  • Apr 11, 2025 9:33pm Apr 11, 2025 9:33pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} max 1.11 though i doubt it
Buy 1230 - 1240, TP about 1416 - 1440
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #122,250
  • Apr 11, 2025 9:41pm Apr 11, 2025 9:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This 1/4 can reach for 802 still. A top is needed. Plus the tariffs dont favor the usd with equities and treasuries dropping. 4.5% was trump's uncle level earlier this week. He is playing with fire. In 1980 the prime rate was above 20%. If it gets away from him in a market drop capitulation. It could quickly get out of hand well above 4.5. By the time congress acts it could be a lot higher. Think about it. If it got away to 9%. The s/p may lose 1/2 its value. China will just sell that much faster to make a point. Millions of U.S. business...
Another view. The tariffs will bring prices up on many things we buy from other countries. Example just to have one. Let's say a tariff of 10 %. At the same time the usd has lost near 9% this year. In this example thats a 19% price increase, Or your 1 dollar is worth 19% less when buying a EZ import. You get 19% less with the same dollar
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,251
  • Apr 11, 2025 9:53pm Apr 11, 2025 9:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Another view. The tariffs will bring prices up on many things we buy from other countries. Example just to have one. Let's say a tariff of 10 %. At the same time the usd has lost near 9% this year. In this example thats a 19% price increase, Or your 1 dollar is worth 19% less when buying a EZ import. You get 19% less with the same dollar
Each eu rise has that E-vacation cost more. It has a 19% or whatever the tariff is + 9% (eu drop). That makes Beamers cost more. EZ suffers.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,252
  • Apr 11, 2025 10:18pm Apr 11, 2025 10:18pm
Death cross Nasdaq Day
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,253
  • Apr 11, 2025 11:59pm Apr 11, 2025 11:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This 1/4 can reach for 802 still. A top is needed. Plus the tariffs dont favor the usd with equities and treasuries dropping. 4.5% was trump's uncle level earlier this week. He is playing with fire. In 1980 the prime rate was above 20%. If it gets away from him in a market drop capitulation. It could quickly get out of hand well above 4.5. By the time congress acts it could be a lot higher. Think about it. If it got away to 9%. The s/p may lose 1/2 its value. China will just sell that much faster to make a point. Millions of U.S. business...
unless us has settled the trade war with the world and the world agrees to buy more bonds at a lower rate.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,254
  • Apr 12, 2025 12:21am Apr 12, 2025 12:21am
Quoting johncen
{quote} unless us has settled the trade war with the world and the world agrees to buy more bonds at a lower rate.
yeah, but it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle. China knows the balance point. The fuse is lit. DT needs to approach China. He can talk big all he wants. When you see the tariffs on China easing or removed. You will know he was full of shit. He just likes attention and sent the world to the edge. The damage already done is not measurable. Its trillins and still rising. The damage already may cost the u.s. and all americans. More it borrowing rates than it otherwise would had been. For a much longer period of time. Doing exactly opposite what he claims he wants. A higher deficit over stupidity. Causing the entire economy to slow down. Business expanding, lay workers off, or buying home/car. Thats already damaged. Consumer sentiment is already showing people not spending.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,255
  • Apr 12, 2025 2:30am Apr 12, 2025 2:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah, but it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle. China knows the balance point. The fuse is lit. DT needs to approach China. He can talk big all he wants. When you see the tariffs on China easing or removed. You will know he was full of shit. He just likes attention and sent the world to the edge. The damage already done is not measurable. Its trillins and still rising. The damage already may cost the u.s. and all americans. More it borrowing rates than it otherwise would had been. For a much longer period of time. Doing exactly...
yup confidence in the US has dropped. China said no and the world sees it. That is irreversable. EU and the rest of the world has option now to partner with China as Trump refused to be the world leader like before.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,256
  • Apr 12, 2025 8:10am Apr 12, 2025 8:10am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yup confidence in the US has dropped. China said no and the world sees it. That is irreversable. EU and the rest of the world has option now to partner with China as Trump refused to be the world leader like before.
That may work for a while. Eventually Americans will force a change. But what's already done will lower standards. Taking away the guys picking the produce has already given us inflation since 2017. My labor cost to renovate is about 3X higher now. The farmers in my area are having a similar problem. We benefited from the labor that is now being removed. That's a system shock we are still absorbing. Because that labor pool is still shrinking. That is a underline inflation maker. We have benefited from this for 100+ years. It's now being removed costing us more. A 5$ apple may be near. Everything we do has a cost. Populist have long gained telling people there being screwed and they can fix it. It always ends the same way
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,257
  • Edited 7:22am Apr 13, 2025 6:50am | Edited 7:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That may work for a while. Eventually Americans will force a change. But what's already done will lower standards. Taking away the guys picking the produce has already given us inflation since 2017. My labor cost to renovate is about 3X higher now. The farmers in my area are having a similar problem. We benefited from the labor that is now being removed. That's a system shock we are still absorbing. Because that labor pool is still shrinking. That is a underline inflation maker. We have benefited from this for 100+ years. It's now being...
TetherUSD

Inserted Video
  • #122,258
  • Apr 13, 2025 5:19pm Apr 13, 2025 5:19pm
I think if it breaks 1.136, the bulls are back in control.
Very confusing weekend from Trump
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,259
  • Apr 13, 2025 9:27pm Apr 13, 2025 9:27pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} TetherUSD https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgZaT-OriO8
Tucker Carlson is a moron. He says outrages crap for clicks. He was a lefty doing the same thing before. He is a commentator. Thats not factual crap he spills it just click bait
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,260
  • Apr 13, 2025 9:37pm Apr 13, 2025 9:37pm
I was supposed to take a shot at 1341 from 1406ish. I just turned is on.
1442 was the other place to look
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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