Weekend Guess Game (GBPUSD W1)

Let’s play a quick market guessing game.

I think the next candle will have a big range. Not necessarily a big body, but a wide high to low.

Which direction do you think it will go, and why?

Sell to the downside 161.8 Fibo level
See the attachment

Thanks for the analysis. I wonder if others have a prediction, let’s see.

For the ones that voted breakout above, I wonder if they could share their reasoning too?

I guess on their reasoning side Tho in fairness there is a clear bull trend observed on the Monthly, but am sure if we can get a yearly graph, it will be better to conclude

Weekly, Pin Bar, Engulfing Bar, Key Reversal, everything says lower, but anything could happen, especially if I analyzed it.

The best I can do is guess the next candle, maybe up to three. After that, it's hard to tell, so I just wait for the next pattern to show up. For this one, I'm looking at a coiling of three candles that shows up from time to time. Based on how this same three candle coil has looked before, it should lead to an upward move. If anyone is interested, I can look for past examples of this same three candle coil and post them.

but anything could happen, especially if I analyzed it.

come over to the dark side and join me on telegram. you dont have to stay just have a quick lookaround

Have you heard of SimpleX Chat groups? From what I understand, it allows unlimited users, unlike Telegram and other apps that limit how many people can join a group. It’s also more private since it doesn’t require a phone number, active SIM, etc.

If your group were on SimpleX Chat, I’d join. The other apps reveal too much about the user.

to be honest i have never heard of it. am a bit useless with tech really so i kinda stick with what im familiar with
But you are welcome to join my tg... you dont need to stay just watch a few videos that might help you

I appreciate the invitation. I’m just concerned about the privacy issues with Telegram. Check out SimpleX Chat and gradually consider moving your group there. It's an easy to use app, the same as any any other app like Telegram or WhatsApp.

I’m just concerned about the privacy issues with Telegram

what issues. im not aware of any but im 61, bit of an oldbugger

Let’s ask AI:

Here is a clear and structured comparison of the privacy issues between Telegram groups and SimpleXChat groups:

1. Identity and Metadata Exposure

Telegram Groups

1. Telegram accounts are tied to phone numbers, which can expose identity if not properly hidden
2. In groups, usernames and profile pictures are often visible to all members
3. Metadata such as message timestamps, group participation, and interaction patterns can be collected by Telegram

SimpleXChat Groups

1. Does not require a phone number or email for registration
2. No usernames are shared in group messages
3. Uses private, anonymous identifiers for routing messages
4. Metadata is minimized since messages are relayed through intermediate nodes and not tied to identities

2. Message Encryption and Server Trust

Telegram Groups

1. Group messages are not end-to-end encrypted
2. Messages are stored on Telegram’s servers, which are centrally operated
3. Users must trust Telegram to manage access and maintain server security

SimpleXChat Groups

1. All group messages are end-to-end encrypted
2. Messages are never stored on central servers
3. Group participants cannot be identified through server logs

3. Data Retention and Access

Telegram Groups

1. All messages are stored unless deleted manually
2. Telegram can theoretically access message content in groups due to lack of end-to-end encryption
3. Deleted messages may still persist in server backups for some time

SimpleXChat Groups

1. Messages are not stored beyond the delivery window
2. Only participants with the correct group key can access messages
3. There is no central storage of group messages

4. Group Member Discovery

Telegram Groups

1. Group member lists are often public or semi-public
2. Members can be contacted directly unless privacy settings are adjusted
3. Group administrators have access to all member information

SimpleXChat Groups

1. Group members are not visible to each other by default
2. Direct messaging between group members is not possible without sharing private contact codes
3. Group creators do not gain access to participant metadata

5. Platform Control and Logging

Telegram Groups

1. Telegram controls and logs group activity through its infrastructure
2. It can enforce content moderation and access logs if legally required

SimpleXChat Groups

1. Operates on a decentralized routing model
2. No central authority has access to message content or full routing data

Conclusion

Telegram groups expose significantly more metadata, have weaker message encryption in group chats, and depend on centralized infrastructure. SimpleXChat groups provide stronger anonymity, decentralized encryption, and reduced exposure of identity and metadata.

Anything is possible, especially in this environment.......these are times where trading discipline is tested. holding, firmly committed to previous analysis. this daily chart has been marked up since January, it is well documented in my previous posts. PA almost reached the 2nd target level but is untested ATM. good probability of previous daily highs to be tested (yellow horizonal rays), buyers expected at these levels, expect all to be tested with return to upside @1.2486 area.

As of now, the candle has a 120 pips range in the up direction, but it's a weekly candle so it'll take a while to form.

We are back to see that the selling is playing out

A few hours under W1 candle close but it looks to be as expected.