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The Swamp

  • #122,221
  • Apr 11, 2025 1:48am Apr 11, 2025 1:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Somebody was dumping treasuries. Or several countries. We nearly had a 2008 + again. It was bad yesterday. Equities and bonds were falling at the same time. That was usd being removed. This ain't over. China now knows this works. We look like idiots, we lost brand. That was worth trillians {quote}
I don’t know if you noticed, but every time we get close to 4.5% on the 10Y, he pops up on TruthSocial and says something ridiculous. Anyway, both China and Europe now know exactly where to hit.

In my opinion, even though I try to understand what Trump is trying to do, it’s almost impossible for him to succeed. And since he’s so stubborn, he might even drag the country into a recession. If he doesn’t reach an agreement with Europe, just watch, we’ll see a disaster in the bond market.
Europe has big leverage on US tech giants.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,222
  • Apr 11, 2025 1:54am Apr 11, 2025 1:54am
Looking at my dynamic week trend at 0983. It's far above it atm. The week high earlier is 400 pips above it. We dont get many 500 pip weeks (this week is 504 so far). I dont recall a 500 pip day. Maybe one or 2 in 2007-2009. Wanna destroy the usd? Do everything that was done in the last few months. Putin's useful idiot has the plan
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,223
  • Apr 11, 2025 1:58am Apr 11, 2025 1:58am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I don’t know if you noticed, but every time we get close to 4.5% on the 10Y, he pops up on TruthSocial and says something ridiculous. Anyway, both China and Europe now know exactly where to hit. In my opinion, even though I try to understand what Trump is trying to do, it’s almost impossible for him to succeed. And since he’s so stubborn, he might even drag the country into a recession. If he doesn’t reach an agreement with Europe, just watch, we’ll see a disaster in the bond market. Europe has big leverage on US tech giants.
Yes, we all noticed including China. China has him by the balls and is toying with him. They can dump and there is nothing he can do about it. He will have to reverse his tariffs. Meanwhile the Fed will but treasuries. He and his stupidity has cost the U.S. uncountable Trillions of dollars.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,224
  • Apr 11, 2025 2:01am Apr 11, 2025 2:01am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Unfortunately, you're 100% right. And not only is he failing to achieve what he set out to do, but this time I think he will lose, it seems that only a few countries are still on his side, while the rest are aligning against him. I also see that Xi is making visits everywhere, today he's in Spain, and next week it's Vietnam and other countries affected by the tariffs.
Xi is lining up stable business relations while the village idiot is destroying friendships. Putin robed us without firing a shot
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,225
  • Apr 11, 2025 2:04am Apr 11, 2025 2:04am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I don’t know if you noticed, but every time we get close to 4.5% on the 10Y, he pops up on TruthSocial and says something ridiculous. Anyway, both China and Europe now know exactly where to hit. In my opinion, even though I try to understand what Trump is trying to do, it’s almost impossible for him to succeed. And since he’s so stubborn, he might even drag the country into a recession. If he doesn’t reach an agreement with Europe, just watch, we’ll see a disaster in the bond market. Europe has big leverage on US tech giants.
Everybody knows the magic 4.5%number.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Somebody was dumping treasuries. Or several countries. We nearly had a 2008 + again. It was bad yesterday. Equities and bonds were falling at the same time. That was usd being removed. This ain't over. China now knows this works. We look like idiots, we lost brand. That was worth trillians {quote}
DT is panicking like all fake tough guys with skid marks in his panties
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,226
  • Apr 11, 2025 3:06am Apr 11, 2025 3:06am
Quoting gatorinla
11 days into this quarter is early to reach 1303. Early up moves in a period like a Monday on a week. Usually form a inverted "V" in the week. On a week period the inverted V ends up back to the weeks lower area most often mid week. I got 1303. But the answer may lie somewhere around it. If its starts to support in that area. That's one thing. If its starting to act as R thats another. My quarter 802 is one possible attraction off 1303. another place in the way is 1.0925. PA is bullish. The other end of this quarter range can be 1.1436x. It usually...
The horse is out the barn on the euro. No auguring about the the momentum and the trend. PA is above 1.1303 and approaching 1.1397. Bulls want to close today above 1.1397. 1.1397/1.1436 are where the institutions are. This is where pa can turn. The damage the tariffs are doing is still a wild card. But potentially this is a top. I sold small positions
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,227
  • Apr 11, 2025 3:33am Apr 11, 2025 3:33am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The horse is out the barn on the euro. No auguring about the the momentum and the trend. PA is above 1.1303 and approaching 1.1397. Bulls want to close today above 1.1397. 1.1397/1.1436 are where the institutions are. This is where pa can turn. The damage the tariffs are doing is still a wild card. But potentially this is a top. I sold small positions
Need some verification. Everything should look bullish trend wise now. Even the tariff usd outflow favors a weaker usd. Verify!
The numbers pulled from were before the tariffs
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,228
  • Apr 11, 2025 3:38am Apr 11, 2025 3:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Xi is lining up stable business relations while the village idiot is destroying friendships. Putin robed us without firing a shot
It wouldn’t be surprising if Trump ends up getting impeached.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,229
  • Apr 11, 2025 3:52am Apr 11, 2025 3:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Need some verification. Everything should look bullish trend wise now. Even the tariff usd outflow favors a weaker usd. Verify! The numbers pulled from were before the tariffs {image}
all green so far
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,230
  • Apr 11, 2025 3:56am Apr 11, 2025 3:56am
Rejection w/ Close below 1.1303 Validates 1.1397 area as likely top
Fail to Close Above 1.1397 on Daily Confirms exhaustion
Bearish divergence on 4H/1D RSI or MACDAdds technical weight to reversal idea
Friday Close under 1.1303 Historical lean toward pullbacks the following week
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,231
  • Apr 11, 2025 3:59am Apr 11, 2025 3:59am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} It wouldn’t be surprising if Trump ends up getting impeached.
He we sided with N.Korea Iran and Russia in a UN vorte. Who are we?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7435pnle0go
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,232
  • Apr 11, 2025 5:21am Apr 11, 2025 5:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} He we sided with N.Korea Iran and Russia in a UN vorte. Who are we? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7435pnle0go
Good question , man......

The revelation that USA and Russia are partners AND allies , since before WW2 is difficult to shallow... isn't it ? . . .?...?

There are many facts Western citizens ignore [ taught to ignore...] but it s time to learn....

Kind regards,

  • #122,233
  • Apr 11, 2025 5:38am Apr 11, 2025 5:38am
Quoting gatorinla
Rejection w/ Close below 1.1303 Validates 1.1397 area as likely top Fail to Close Above 1.1397 on Daily Confirms exhaustion Bearish divergence on 4H/1D RSI or MACDAdds technical weight to reversal idea Friday Close under 1.1303 Historical lean toward pullbacks the following week
If it starts closing below 1303.. It may be weakening. So it clso may support. Its above 1.0354 802 986 and .1303. The bull side. But it has reached a place of significance. A possible top area.
1.1214Shallow, weak retrace — no conviction
1.1026 Typical pause zone
1.0914 High-prob institutional re-test level
1.0802 Matches institutional sweet spot
1.0597Only hit if momentum breaks down hard
1.03547Full roundtrip (rare unless crisis)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,234
  • Edited 5:59am Apr 11, 2025 5:45am | Edited 5:59am
Over the weekend i planned to long 802.. It never got there.. Tp for a week target was 986. I didnt expect to be this high. The quarter target was 1303. Price blew past it too.
The pa before the tariff talk had this 1303 area. But as the year 2024 closed the target on the other end was 0.9490. The year closed with a bearish b/o candle. Those tariffs made a big difference in the usd.
The opposite Q side was met at 1.1303..
The years next level can be met, if this bull continues at 1.2373.9. 1/2 way to it is 1.1442.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,235
  • Apr 11, 2025 6:25am Apr 11, 2025 6:25am
Not much..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,236
  • Apr 11, 2025 8:10am Apr 11, 2025 8:10am
I like trending markets. I pulled 200 pips in the Globex session. Time to reload
  • #122,237
  • Apr 11, 2025 10:39am Apr 11, 2025 10:39am
1313 support tested and held so far. Closing above it and 1341 dont hurt bulls. Below 1313 and 1303 (-1303 today) closes may be the bull slipping
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,238
  • Apr 11, 2025 11:55am Apr 11, 2025 11:55am
PA closed below 1.1303, confirming bearish intent
It is now retesting 1.1303 from underneath, which could act as new resistance
If this level holds as resistance:
It confirms sellers are defending the breakdown
Reinforces continuation projection
Look for bearish price action confirmation on lower timeframes (M15/M30)
Re-entry or continuation setups valid
If price closes back above 1.1303:
Short-term reclaim attempt in play
Watch 1.1340 as upper edge of the re-entry zone
Structure would weaken slightly — no panic, just adapt
Getting a 1h close is better. next h is a 4h
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,239
  • Apr 11, 2025 12:02pm Apr 11, 2025 12:02pm
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1.1303 failed to hold as resistance
4H candle closed above, suggesting short-term reclaim
This opens the door for a push into 1.1340, the upper re-entry zone
Updated Plan:
Scenario A – Bull Trap
Price moves above 1.1303 but fails below 1.1340
Look for lower high + bearish PA in that zone
Best confirmation: strong M30/H1 wick rejection or bearish engulfing
Scenario B – Reclaim & Reversal
Price clears 1.1340 cleanly
A 1H or 4H close above 1.1340 weakens the bearish projection further
Watch for retest of 1.1401 or even a sweep toward 1.1443–1.1473
Bottom line:
This is a reclaim attempt, not a full invalidation — yet.
But it does mean no new shorts here unless we get a proper rejection signal near 1.1340.
Next important candle is the 1H close — let’s watch how it behaves inside this new zone.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,240
  • Apr 11, 2025 1:26pm Apr 11, 2025 1:26pm
Bears need 1303 to hold it. It can go either way here.

Another spot to hold is 1313.
The 4h did close under 1313. but not 1303.
Today closing below 1303 is bearish evidence. It may fall if below and closed -1303 Monday. But A hard fall on a Monday can come right back to 1340 mid week.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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