The Swamp

The tariffs were mostly priced in. Now some of that pressure is gone. That probably distorts some of the usd weakness. At least until he changes his mind. That leads me to think gu 2939 has reduced odds than before.

Somebody was dumping treasuries. Or several countries. We nearly had a 2008 + again. It was bad yesterday. Equities and bonds were falling at the same time. That was usd being removed. This ain't over. China now knows this works. We look like idiots, we lost brand. That was worth trillians

Holding 61.058. but for how long. WTI

closed gu

Bonds rule! Without it, crash. 4.5 is the uncle. Now China knows.

I closed out eg. Kinda late. i gave 1/2 back. But its may be reaching for .8651 this morning.. It has a high close. So it may come back and hit .8490 still.

With 15 min left, bulls may had run out of clock. I had it running to .8490 before Friday closed. I got it reaching 1h dynamic R at 8622.

dynamic 1h broken, the close 8630
Treasury on the 30y is still rising. He may have already broke the system. New 30y auction in 2hs

EU took out the 2024 high today

USD/CHF Monthly

With all the bullishit Banks and other CEOs fed us. The market reflect their actions. If stocks are dropping, and bonds dropping (% rising) The 6 time bankrupt stable genius hurt the U.S.A. brand around the world. That can be generations of hurt. What could go wrong putting a moron in charge? We will find out.

Safe haven out the usd

Another hostage press conference atm like they do in North Korea. Where everyone says how great the leader is.

I asked this? I already knew the answers, but this gives others take.
1. Are credit default swaps widening? 2. What evidence do you have they are? 3. Is this often a precursor of a liquidity problem? 4. What is the most often result? 5. In other market turndowns such as the 2008 liquidity crises, that lead to the 2008 Financial Crisis. How far ahead of the meltdown did these smaller widening cds occur? 6. Is there a chance current conditions are on the same path with the unknown about tariffs? 7. With what you currently see can a downturn this time be worse than 2008. Since the Fed has the employment and inflation mandate. Their hands will be tied.?

Response 1
Recent developments in credit default swaps (CDS) and tariff policies have raised concerns about potential economic implications. Here's an analysis addressing your questions:Reuters
1. Are credit default swaps widening?
Recent reports indicate that CDS spreads have experienced fluctuations. Following President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on new import tariffs for most countries (excluding China), global credit default spreads tightened. For instance, the iTRAXX Crossover index, which tracks default insurance for 75 low-rated European companies, decreased to 376 basis points from 427. However, these spreads remain near their recent 30-month highs, suggesting underlying market concerns persist.The Atlantic+2Reuters+2The Atlantic+2
2. What evidence do you have they are?
The tightening of CDS spreads is evidenced by the market's reaction to the tariff pause. Despite the relief rally, the fact that spreads are just below their recent highs indicates that investors remain cautious about credit risk. The AtlanticReuters
3. Is this often a precursor of a liquidity problem?
Yes, significant movements in CDS spreads can signal potential liquidity issues. Widening spreads often reflect increased perceived risk of default, leading investors to demand higher premiums for credit exposure. This can result in higher borrowing costs and reduced access to capital, potentially leading to liquidity constraints for borrowers.
4. What is the most often result?
The typical outcomes of widening CDS spreads include:Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

1. Increased Borrowing Costs: Entities may face higher interest rates when issuing new debt due to heightened perceived risk.
2. Reduced Market Confidence: Investors may become more risk-averse, leading to decreased market participation and potential sell-offs.
3. Potential Credit Rating Downgrades: Persistent widening of spreads can prompt credit rating agencies to reassess and possibly downgrade the credit ratings of affected entities.

5. In other market turndowns such as the 2008 liquidity crisis that led to the 2008 Financial Crisis, how far ahead of the meltdown did these smaller widening CDS occur?
During the 2008 financial crisis, CDS spreads began widening months before the peak of the crisis. For example, the collapse of Bear Stearns in March 2008 was preceded by a significant widening of its CDS spreads, indicating growing concerns about its creditworthiness. This suggests that widening CDS spreads can serve as an early warning signal, occurring several months prior to a full-blown financial meltdown.en.wikipedia.org
6. Is there a chance current conditions are on the same path with the unknown about tariffs?
The current economic environment shares some similarities with past crises, particularly concerning policy-induced market uncertainties. President Trump's aggressive tariff policies, including a steep 145% levy on Chinese goods, have introduced significant market volatility and raised fears of stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and high inflation. While it's challenging to predict with certainty, the potential for escalating trade tensions and their impact on global markets could set conditions reminiscent of previous financial crises.The Atlantic+3Politico+3Reuters+3
7. With what you currently see, can a downturn this time be worse than 2008, since the Fed has the employment and inflation mandate? Their hands will be tied.
The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. The current scenario presents a complex challenge: aggressive tariff policies are contributing to inflationary pressures, while also threatening economic growth. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee referred to the tariffs as a "stagflationary shock," highlighting the difficulty in addressing simultaneous inflation and stagnation. If the Fed tightens monetary policy to combat inflation, it could exacerbate economic slowdown; conversely, easing policy to spur growth might fuel further inflation. This delicate balancing act could constrain the Fed's ability to respond effectively, potentially leading to a downturn with complexities that differ from, and could be more challenging than, those faced during the 2008 crisis.Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland+1Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago+1Politico
In summary, while there are parallels to past financial crises, the unique factors at play—particularly the current trade policies and their global ramifications—create a distinct set of challenges that warrant close monitoring and proactive policy responses.
Recent Developments in Tariff Policies and Economic Implications
https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/...z/original.jpg
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d...ntic.com&sz=32The Atlantic
The Cost of Chaos
Today
https://www.reuters.com/resizer/4V8t...FFGUMARJQU.jpg
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d...ters.com&sz=32Reuters
Fed chair nears second chance to channel his hero
Today
https://static.politico.com/4e/74/aa...sbee-62635.jpg
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d...tico.com&sz=32Politico
Fed official calls tariffs 'stagflationary shock,' in stark comment on Trump policy
Today

The same question with the second response.


Response 2
Recent developments in credit default swaps (CDS) and current economic conditions have raised several pertinent questions. Here's an analysis based on your inquiries:
1. Are credit default swaps widening?
Yes, there is evidence indicating that CDS spreads are widening. For instance, as of April 2023, the cost of insuring U.S. sovereign debt via five-year CDS reached its highest level since 2011, reflecting increased market unease. KTWB Big Country 92.5+1Shore News Network+1
2. What evidence do you have they are?
The widening of CDS spreads is evidenced by data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, which showed U.S. five-year CDS spreads increasing to 62 basis points in April 2023, up from 59 basis points the previous day. This surge was driven by concerns over the U.S. potentially hitting its debt ceiling sooner than expected. Shore News Network+1KTWB Big Country 92.5+1
3. Is this often a precursor of a liquidity problem?
Yes, widening CDS spreads can be indicative of potential liquidity issues. An increase in CDS spreads suggests that investors perceive a higher risk of default, which can lead to reduced market confidence and tighter liquidity conditions. During the 2008 financial crisis, for example, significant widening of CDS spreads was observed prior to major liquidity shortages.
4. What is the most often result?
The typical outcomes of widening CDS spreads include:Cambridge University Press & Assessment

1. Increased Borrowing Costs: Entities may face higher costs when issuing new debt due to perceived higher default risk.
2. Reduced Market Confidence: Investors may become more risk-averse, leading to decreased market participation and further liquidity constraints.
3. Potential Credit Rating Downgrades: Persistent widening of spreads can prompt credit rating agencies to reassess and potentially downgrade the credit ratings of affected entities.

5. In other market turndowns such as the 2008 liquidity crisis that led to the 2008 Financial Crisis, how far ahead of the meltdown did these smaller widening CDS occur?
In the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis, CDS spreads began widening several months before the collapse of major financial institutions. Notably, the CDS spreads for entities like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers increased significantly in the months preceding their failures, indicating growing market concerns well ahead of the actual events.
6. Is there a chance current conditions are on the same path with the unknown about tariffs?
The current economic environment, characterized by aggressive tariff policies and trade tensions, shares some similarities with previous periods of financial instability. The recent imposition of steep tariffs has led to market volatility and concerns over economic growth, which could potentially contribute to financial instability. PoliticoThe Atlantic+1The Atlantic+1
7. With what you currently see, can a downturn this time be worse than 2008, since the Fed has the employment and inflation mandate? Their hands will be tied.
The Federal Reserve's dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable inflation adds complexity to its policy responses in the current environment. The recent tariff-induced economic conditions have been described as a "stagflationary shock," presenting challenges for the Fed's policy decisions. While it's difficult to predict the exact severity of a potential downturn, the unique combination of trade tensions, market volatility, and policy constraints could pose significant challenges, potentially differing in nature but comparable in impact to the 2008 crisis.Politico
In summary, the widening of CDS spreads, coupled with current economic uncertainties, warrants close monitoring as these factors can serve as early indicators of broader financial ins

1.1384

DT destroyed the brand name. Trust is lost.

11 days into this quarter is early to reach 1303. Early up moves in a period like a Monday on a week. Usually form a inverted "V" in the week. On a week period the inverted V ends up back to the weeks lower area most often mid week.
I got 1303. But the answer may lie somewhere around it. If its starts to support in that area. That's one thing. If its starting to act as R thats another. My quarter 802 is one possible attraction off 1303. another place in the way is 1.0925. PA is bullish. The other end of this quarter range can be 1.1436x. It usually would stop near 1.1303. The high is 50 pips above 1303. Today being a Friday closing below 1303 may point to some retrace. So far, the 4h closes are above 1303. The only 6h since being above 1303 closed below 1303. the next one to measure may be a 12h

Unfortunately, you're 100% right.
And not only is he failing to achieve what he set out to do, but this time I think he will lose, it seems that only a few countries are still on his side, while the rest are aligning against him.
I also see that Xi is making visits everywhere, today he's in Spain, and next week it's Vietnam and other countries affected by the tariffs.