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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #321
  • Apr 8, 2025 5:07pm Apr 8, 2025 5:07pm
1/3 aDtr 21 today
16 Pairs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aDtr Today.png Size: 8 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #322
  • Apr 8, 2025 9:28pm Apr 8, 2025 9:28pm
What are they doing with CHF/JPY? It hasn't gone down for hours, while other JPY pairs have already plunged southwards. This must be the work of a cartel—if it were the Swiss National Bank (SNB), they wouldn’t intervene to this extent.

Lol
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #323
  • Apr 8, 2025 9:42pm Apr 8, 2025 9:42pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
What are they doing with CHF/JPY? It hasn't gone down for hours, while other JPY pairs have already plunged southwards. This must be the work of a cartel—if it were the Swiss National Bank (SNB), they wouldn’t intervene to this extent. Lol
Swiss fanc is also a safe haven. It is strong all across board from last 1 week.
  • #324
  • Apr 8, 2025 10:33pm Apr 8, 2025 10:33pm
Quoting sampat
{quote} Swiss fanc is also a safe haven. It is strong all across board from last 1 week.
Welcome, bro, go ahead.

Yes, the price has been stuck at 172,630 for a long time and still hasn’t been able to break through it. I think it will drop at Range 2 later. I'm just observing, while USD/JPY has been falling continuously—usually, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY follow USD/JPY quickly. This time, it's like a bug.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #325
  • Apr 8, 2025 10:56pm Apr 8, 2025 10:56pm
From Prof. Raphael Douady:

Surprised by the latest market drop? -10% in just 3 business days since April 1, and that's not an April fool! Well, when doing market statistics as of Apr 1, if you live in a Gaussian world, with a 3-day return standard deviation of about 1.6%, the probability of such an event is 1 in 2.5 Billions, or once in 10 Millions years! But with a proper fat tail estimate, the Pareto exponent is 2.6 and such an event may occur twice a year (precisely every 145 days), nothing to be surprised about. The Gaussian 99% expected shortfall is -4.3%, while the Pareto estimate is -8.8%, in line with the actual market drop. Even better: if we made our market statistics at the market peak on Feb 19, the market actually dropped -10% until Mar 13, mere a month. The Gaussian expected shortfall was -6.6%, while the Pareto estimate was -20%.

Markets are volatile, certainly, but those drops, that seem large with respect to the volatility in a Gaussian world, are just business as usual with a proper fat-tailed distribution estimate.

https://x.com/RDouady/status/1909167903129100725
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #326
  • Apr 9, 2025 1:51am Apr 9, 2025 1:51am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Welcome, bro, go ahead. Yes, the price has been stuck at 172,630 for a long time and still hasn’t been able to break through it. I think it will drop at Range 2 later. I'm just observing, while USD/JPY has been falling continuously—usually, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY follow USD/JPY quickly. This time, it's like a bug.
And CHF/JPY Go South... Aye!
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #327
  • Apr 9, 2025 6:12am Apr 9, 2025 6:12am
Lol, one more pip to TP, then the market went chaotic — reverse polarity! What a mess!
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #328
  • Apr 9, 2025 12:52pm Apr 9, 2025 12:52pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Lol, one more pip to TP, then the market went chaotic — reverse polarity! What a mess!
USDCAD and USDJPY messed me up so far. USD just went up wildly and NZDUSD and AUDUSD went up. TF!
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #329
  • Edited 6:22pm Apr 9, 2025 5:27pm | Edited 6:22pm
aDtr 21 Today (10-04-2025)
17 Pairs

Wellcome GBP/CHF

We can easily observe the increased volatility for 28 pairs daily by monitoring the aDtr pairs above the filter >= 99 pips (criteria suitable for daily trading, as the SL or TP percentage (1 unit) requires a minimum of 33 pips or above.

You don’t need to trade many pairs; simply select one pair with a strong setup among the 17 pairs according to this method/system https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15195924 after the London Open to capture your desired percentage gain (in the table). You need to scale risk first here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15183237

Whoever can trade this system with patience and discipline, please send your TE Explorer data here, or your MyFxbook/Fx Blue data. Other than complete statistics (e.g., over one month, 3 months, or 4 months), we have nothing to go on except just tawk, tawk, and tawkz (sorry for My Ass!).

By the way, my data is already mixed with speculative trades this month. Lol. In my opinion, making 10k, 5k, or even 100k a day isn't impressive if the risk taken is elephant-sized when the market is highly volatile. Nothing special, and even ends up highlighting our foolishness.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aDtr.png Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF.iM15.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled xx.png Size: 32 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #330
  • Apr 9, 2025 8:13pm Apr 9, 2025 8:13pm
GBP/CAD Range 1

Test. Become Convex.
Long, Risk 1 Unit 51 pips (0.5%)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.iM15-Range1-1.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.iM15-Range1-2.png Size: 28 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #331
  • Apr 9, 2025 9:43pm Apr 9, 2025 9:43pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
GBP/CAD Range 1 Test. Become Convex. Long, Risk 1 Unit 51 pips (0.5%) {image} {image}
As slow as watching a land snail crawl.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.iM15-Range1-3.png Size: 30 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #332
  • Apr 9, 2025 10:34pm Apr 9, 2025 10:34pm
EUR/USD Range 1

Test. Become Convex.
Long, Risk 1 Unit 35 pips (0.5%)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iM15-Range-1.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 6 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #333
  • Apr 10, 2025 2:46am Apr 10, 2025 2:46am
Quoting RoelsMajor
GBP/CAD Range 1 Test. Become Convex. Long, Risk 1 Unit 51 pips (0.5%) {image} {image}
Quoting RoelsMajor
EUR/USD Range 1 Test. Become Convex. Long, Risk 1 Unit 35 pips (0.5%) {image} {image}
GBP/CAD playing stop hunting. Loss 0.5%
EURUSD OK. Gain +0.5%
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.iM15-Range1-4.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.iM15-Range1-5.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iM15-Range-2.png Size: 27 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #334
  • Apr 10, 2025 2:56am Apr 10, 2025 2:56am
Entries after London Open:

Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Long GBP/CAD 1 unit 51 pips (0.5%)
Short USD/JPY 1 unit 58 pips (0.5%)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.iM15-1.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-1.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 6 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #335
  • Apr 10, 2025 5:11am Apr 10, 2025 5:11am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Entries after London Open: Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Long GBP/CAD 1 unit 51 pips (0.5%) Short USD/JPY 1 unit 58 pips (0.5%) {image} {image} {image}
GBP/CAD Playing Stop Hunting, Hit BE
USD/JPY OK. Gain +0.5%
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.iM15-2.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-2.png Size: 27 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #336
  • Apr 10, 2025 5:18am Apr 10, 2025 5:18am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一

Short AUD/JPY 1 Unit 60 pips (0.5%)
Short NZD/JPY 1 unit 49 pips (0.5%)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.iM15-1.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY.iM15-1.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #337
  • Apr 10, 2025 7:14am Apr 10, 2025 7:14am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Short AUD/JPY 1 Unit 60 pips (0.5%) Short NZD/JPY 1 unit 49 pips (0.5%) {image} {image}
Both Hit BE
15 minutes before Red News
Rest...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.iM15-2.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY.iM15-2.png Size: 27 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #338
  • Apr 10, 2025 8:13am Apr 10, 2025 8:13am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一

Long EUR/AUD, 1 unit 75 pips (0.5%)
Long EUR/NZD, 1 unit 79 pips (0.5%)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-1.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iM15-1.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #339
  • Edited 10:14am Apr 10, 2025 9:38am | Edited 10:14am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Long EUR/AUD, 1 unit 75 pips (0.5%) Long EUR/NZD, 1 unit 79 pips (0.5%) {image} {image}
EUR/AUD, Price retrace back to the base Entry, Hit BE
EUR/NZD, Price near TP then retrace back to the base Entry, Hit BE
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-2.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iM15-2.png Size: 27 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #340
  • Edited 7:42pm Apr 10, 2025 11:26am | Edited 7:42pm
Both of these fortunate trades on AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY saw the price nearly hit the stop loss (SL) but reversed direction quickly, likely due to the price structure, as the curve had become quite concave. Moving the SL to breakeven (BE) after securing decent profits can hinder the price fluctuation process within the range between the take profit (TP) and SL (like cases EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD above). However, it’s better to hit BE than SL, as it allows for re-entry if the market reverses in the desired direction.

Today’s directional predictions were all correct, even though the trading results varied. Then, moving the SL to BE+2 or beyond can increase the winrate even with a 0.0% result (Lol ), but it is not considered a losing trade.

Okay Ladies and Gentlemen, that's today's hypothetical trading story, complete with statistical data and chart images, all for the sake of brighter future performance. Therefore, you can take and study the complete information. I am not a mentor or a teacher—just a fellow trader.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.iM15-1.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.iM15-2.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY.iM15-1.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY.iM15-2.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 21 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
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