What happen in the market today?

Gold prices still hold above $3000

Although yesterday the gold price drew a bearish candle, the gold price still holds above the $3000 price level. Yesterday the price drew a small-bodied bearish candle with movement within the previous candle price range. The price has formed a high of 3033, a low of 3002, closing of 3011.

The USD seems to still maintain its short-term broad strength, causing this precious metal to trade slightly above the lowest level in the previously mentioned daily trading. The dollar index (DXY) drew a bullish candle extending its previous increase and has reached a high of 104,444. The RSI is at level 42, increasingly leaving the oversold zone level.

Expectations of Trump's more targeted tariffs than previously threatened provide support for the strengthening of the dollar index. Most recently Trump will announce tariffs on cars, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals in the near future.

Meanwhile, the US PMI data for March was released yesterday, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, lower than expected at 51.9 from the previous revision of 52.7. Meanwhile, the Service PMI rose to 54.3, higher than the expected 51.2 and the previous revision of 51.0.

There are no relevant economic data releases today, but the US will release the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) figure on Friday. The PCE is a key indicator that the Fed prefers when making interest rate decisions.

Waiting for UK inflation data, GBP/USD rose slightly above the middle band

The GBPUSD pair has still been moving in the price range of 1.28705 - 1.30144 since March 11 between the middle band and the upper band line. Yesterday the pair drew a small-bodied bullish candle with a little shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.29669 low of 1.29020, closing at 1.29431, although slightly up, but generally still moving in the previous week's range.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, fell slightly yesterday at a low of 103.944 from the previous high of 104.467. DXY closed at 104.211. The DXY movement is still below the EMA 20, which may be a dynamic resistance. While the RSI is at level 41 with the potential for a downtrend that may continue.

In the US, according to Adriana Kugler, the Governor of the Federal Reserve, stated that in certain categories, there is evidence that inflation has increased again in recent months. Another Fed official, New York Fed President John Williams, said that businesses and households are experiencing increasing uncertainty about the future of the economy.

US inflation concerns may increase and push the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, which may increase USD adoption. According to the CME group Fedwatch tool, the Fed's likelihood of leaving interest rates unchanged in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% is 87.1%, and the possibility of a 0.25% cut is only 12.9% at the May 7 meeting later.

Today, investors will focus on UK inflation data, CPI year-on-year is estimated to remain at 3.0% the same as the previous revision. The BoE also maintained the latest interest rate of 4.50% issued in March 20. Besides CPI, investors will also pay attention to the Annual Budget Release, which will outline the government's budget for the year.

EUR/USD is more down ahead of US economic data

Yesterday, EURUSD crossed the middle band line and drew a bearish candle extending the previous decline since March 19. The price formed a high of 1.08027, a low of 1.07440, and a close of 1.07537. The economic outlook in several European countries with negative sentiment seems to be the reason for the weakening of the Euro against the US dollar lately. The trade war echoed by US President Donald Trump is expected to also have an impact on Europe. Trump has repeatedly hinted that he will impose tariffs on Europe because it does not buy enough American goods.

The dollar index (DXY) still maintained its strengthening yesterday after dropping to a low of 103.944. Yesterday, DXY rose to 104.683, trying to cross the EMA 20 from the downside. The RSI indicator drew an upward channel pointing to level 47, indicating that the price is increasingly leaving the oversold zone level.

In Europe, expectations of central banks to lower interest rates are increasing, amid economic risks caused by Trump's tariffs on the continent. With low interest rates, it is hoped that it can boost the domestic economy when external conditions are not supportive.

Germany, one of the developed countries in Europe, has extended the borrowing limit to increase defense spending and create a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund. This could support the circulation of the Euro in the European region, which in turn supports the domestic economy.

On the other hand, ECB President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns and stated that the inflationary impact of the trade war was only temporary and would subside in the medium term.

Investors and traders today will pay attention to US economic data. According to Forexfactory, there will be a release of the Final GDP per quarter, which is estimated to be the same as the previous revision of 2.3%. The Final GDP Price Index is estimated at 2.4%. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Claims data is expected to be 225k from the previous revision of 223k.

Trump's tariffs threaten the auto industry, USD/CAD slightly up, seeking a new balance.

The USDCAD pair drew a bullish candle yesterday, the Canadian dollar weakened amid US President Donald Trump's new tariff threat on cars manufactured outside the US to be subject to a 25% tariff. Trump's new tariffs will certainly get a response from his trading partner countries, including Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said his cabinet was considering all kinds of retaliatory measures.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called Trump's tariffs a direct attack on workers in his country. He said the cabinet would meet on Thursday to discuss retaliatory measures.

In line with Trump's statement, the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, briefly rose to 104.653 but fell later to a low of 104.070 with a close of 104.279. The DXY is moving near the 20 EMA, which seems to act as dynamic resistance at a given time.

US final quarterly GDP data showed a value of 2.4% higher than the expected 2.3%, but the Final GDP Price Index fell 2.3% from the expected 2.4%. While unemployment claims fell 224 from the expected 225k.

Today, investors and traders will focus on the Core PCE Price Index data, which is the Fed's most preferred inflation data for interest rate policy. The PCE index is estimated at 0.3%. On the other hand, Canada will release GDP which is estimated to increase 0.3% from the previous 0.2%.

Gold prices hit new record highs amid trade war fears

On Friday, gold prices soared higher, extending gains by drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. Prices formed a high of 3086, a low of 3054, and a close of 3084.

Investors appear to still be fearful of the impact of the trade war caused by President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Market sentiment is pessimistic as traders prepare for April 2, which was dubbed Liberation Day by US President Donald Trump, who signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all cars imported into the US. This has sparked reactions around the world, especially in Canada and the European Union (EU), which have begun preparing retaliatory measures against the move.

Looking at the PCE data released on Friday, it showed actual 0.4% higher than expected 0.3%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by $87.8 billion (0.4%). Despite the increase in core PCE, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expects the Fed to make two interest rate cuts in 2025.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against six other major currencies, dropped to 104.011 in response to US data on Friday. Previously, the DXY was at a high of 104.498. Meanwhile, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, at the Fed's May 7 meeting, the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% with a probability of 83.8%, and a cut probability of 4.%-4.25%, only 16.2%.

Today's economic data that may be of concern to investors is the China Manufacturing PMI, which is estimated to be the same as the previous period at 0.5%.

AUD/USD drops ahead of RBA rate announcement

The AUDUSD currency pair depreciated ahead of the RBA rate announcement, the price has fallen drawing a long-bodied bearish candle across the lower band with a wick at the bottom of the candle. The price has formed a high of 0.63003 low of 0.62188, and closed at 0.62474.

The Australian dollar's decline was the worst in four weeks against other currencies ahead of the RBA monetary policy meeting due to be released today. Investors expect the RBA to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at the current level of 4.1%. Therefore, investors will be paying close attention to the RBA's monetary policy guidance.

In the latest developments, President Donald Trump's tariff policy has brought economic fears and is expected to affect the Chinese economy. Trump's "Liberation Day" will announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2 could affect the Chinese economic outlook, given that the world's second-largest country has the largest trade surplus with the US. Here, Australia will be affected by the Chinese economy. This fear seems to have caused the Australian dollar to underperform.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, is trying to recover after weakening. DXY rose to 104.392 from a low of 103.752.

Today, investors will focus on several fundamental data points from the US and Australia. In the US, investors will be waiting for manufacturing PMI data and job openings data. Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be the same as the previous revision of 49.8, while ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 49.5 from the previous 50.3. JOLTS Job Openings are expected to be 7.69 M from the previous 7.74 M.

USD/CAD is volatile amid Trump's tariff policy

Yesterday, the USDCAD pair drew a long-bodied bearish candle with a wick on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.44148, a low of 1.42979, and a close of 1.42994. Previously, USDCAD drew a bullish candle with a body of almost the same length.

One possible cause is Trump's tariff policy which triggered a trade war, causing market fears of global economic uncertainty. On the other hand, demand for safe havens seems to be increasing, as seen from the price of gold, which continues to rise.

Trump also threatened to impose large tariffs on Russian oil, and the potential for bombing Iran further raises uncertainty in geopolitical risk.

Meanwhile, investors now seem convinced that slowing US economic growth amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade tariffs could force the Fed to continue its interest rate cut policy soon. However, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% at the May 7 Fed meeting with a probability of 84.5%.

On the other hand, the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is still in doubt, drawing a doji candle yesterday. DXY formed a high of 104.180 low of 104.019, closing at 104.199 with an open of 104.180. Visually, DXY is moving below the EMA 20, indicating a bearish sentiment.

The US JOLTS job openings data released yesterday showed lower than expected figures raising speculation of a weak US economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI of 49.0 was lower than expected, 49.5 providing negative support to the USD.

Today, traders and investors will focus on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to rise to 118k from the previous 77k.

USD/CNH surges after Trump tariff announcement

Financial markets have been volatile since Trump’s tariff announcement. White House report says studies have repeatedly shown tariffs are an effective tool for achieving economic and strategic objectives

The report claims that in 2024, studies found that Trump’s tariffs strengthened the US economy and led to reshoring in sectors like manufacturing and steel production.

A 2023 report by the US International Trade Commission found that Trump’s tariffs reduced Chinese imports and stimulated more US production of affected goods.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, President Trump's tariffs during his first term “have shown no apparent correlation with inflation” and have had only a temporary impact on overall prices.

The White House report stated that the media's prediction was wrong, unlike what has been feared so far about high inflation.

Despite the positive report from the White House, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed at its May 7 meeting is still expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% with a probability level of 91.1%.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, dropped, drawing a bearish candle with a low of 103.366, a high of 104.314, and a close of 103.802.

Today, investors will focus on US economic data on Unemployment Claims and PMI, which may get a market response.

Significant USD/CAD drop due to Trump tariffs

The Canadian dollar rallied sharply after the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. USDCAD hit a 3-month low at 1.40376 by drawing a long-bodied bearish candle and a fairly long wick at the bottom of the candle. Yesterday, the price made a high of 1.43189, a low of 1.40276, and a close of 1.40822.

The Trump administration’s tariff announcement received a surprising response from the market. The USD came under pressure, instead of acting as a safe-haven in the past. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, plunged with a wide gap to a low of 101.267 from a high of 103.379. The gap was quite deep, from the previous close of 103.691 to open at 103.148. The RSI shows that the DXY is currently in the oversold zone.

Unlike normal times, the USD often acts as a safe-haven currency with investors rushing to buy USD, but these are not normal times. The US Dollar is under pressure from the Trump administration's latest tariffs, which will be implemented in a gradual but rapid period.

The Trump administration will impose a 10% across-the-board tariff on all goods imported into the US starting April 5. The “reciprocal tariffs,” calculated as the ratio of US imports to exports on a per-country basis, will go into effect on April 9.

Canada has retaliated with its own potential tariffs if US trade falls outside its own USMCA limits, although Canada and Mexico have been granted additional tariff relief.

Fed officials, on the other hand, have been outspoken in warning that the tariffs could hurt expectations of a rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates on hold at its May 7 meeting has fallen from 91% to 75.4%, according to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, given the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff opening report.

The forex market, however, is highly sensitive to recent news updates. Investors will be looking ahead to the release of US and Canadian economic data due later today, including the NFP and Unemployment Rate, as well as any subtle hints from Fed Chair Powell's speech on the outlook for US interest rates and the US economy.

Trump Tariff Impact, WTI Prices Plunge to Low 60.21

WTI oil prices have declined consecutively for four days, with two days of long declines. On Friday, April 4, WTI oil prices plunged, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with a wick at the bottom of the candle. WTI oil formed a high of 66.56, a low of 60.21, and a closing of 62.03. The decline in prices for four consecutive days even managed to cross the lower band line, indicating very high volatility.

The decline in oil prices aligns with the implementation of the reciprocal tariff policy announced by the Trump administration, which has sparked concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Although the Trump administration has prohibited affected countries from retaliating against the tariff policy, a trade war may be inevitable which in turn worsens the international trade environment.

A potential tariff war between the US and China will further worsen the outlook for oil demand. China has taken retaliatory steps against Trump's tariff policy by imposing a 34% tariff on American goods starting April 10 in retaliation after President Donald Trump imposed high tariffs on goods from China.

On the other hand, Trump considered his policies to have worked effectively and was proud of the US employment, which he said had soared. The US Department of Labor said there were 228,000 jobs last month, far more than the predicted 130,000. On the other hand, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, with average earnings growing 0.3% in March to USD 36, or slightly higher than February.

Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged the US and its trading partners to work constructively to resolve trade tensions and reduce uncertainty. She warned that the higher import tariffs announced by President Trump were clearly a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth.

Another reason for the decline in oil prices was that OPEC+ surprisingly announced that they would increase production by 411 thousand barrels per day in May.

Gold price plunges amid trade war and global risk sentiment

Trump's reciprocal tariff policy has had a tremendous impact on the financial market. Many stocks have plunged after President Donald Trump implemented tariffs. Gold has depreciated for three consecutive days, drawing bearish candles. Yesterday, gold closed lower at 2956 near the 50 MA, which could be a support zone in this area. The price has formed a high of 3054, a low of 2956, and a close of 2982 on the FXOpen platform. The long body of the candlestick reflects the high volatility that has occurred.

The impact of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday brought the US dollar and other safe-haven currencies after the USD hit a six-month low. The dollar index (DXY) is now at a high of 103.584, up from a low of 102.540, which had reached its lowest level at 101.267.

Last Friday, China retaliated by imposing 34% tariffs on all US imports, triggering turmoil in financial markets as most global equity indices posted losses. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs appear to have caused most markets to plunge, but on the other hand, US Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year bond up almost fifteen basis points to 4.15% at the last update on April 7. The 20-year bond also rose by 0.15% and the 30-year by 0.17%.

Ahead of the week, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, followed by the release of consumer and producer inflation data.

Tariff-related developments and trends across all assets will dominate the scene over the next few days. At the moment, the USD is still likely to see some uptick in demand, but that could change given the main fear is that tariffs will lead to higher inflation along with an economic recession. Markets are predicting a bleak future for the US, which will have implications for all other major economies.

USD/CNH hits record high amid Trump's reciprocal tariffs

CNH, the symbol for China's Renminbi currency traded offshore outside mainland China, weakened against the USD to its lowest at 7.4288. This exchange rate is higher than the USDCNH exchange rate in history. Yesterday, USDCNH drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 7.4288, a low of 7.3361, and a close of 7.4239.

The offshore yuan hit a record low amid the trade war triggered by President Donald Trump's massive tariffs that have rocked financial markets. Many stocks plunged after Trump's reciprocal tariffs were announced to several countries.

Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs provided more benefits for the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen, which are considered safe-haven currencies. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, showed a decrease in value at 102.753, down from 103.441 on Tuesday. USD has weakened more since January 2025 although its value is always fluctuating. DXY is now still moving below the EMA 20 indicating that there is still potential for bearish sentiment.

The increasingly uncontrolled trade war between China and the US seems to be the trigger for the weakening of the Chinese currency. US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, China will impose a 34% tariff on US goods starting April 10, 2025, tomorrow. The Tariff Commission of the State Council of China said that what the US did was not in line with international trade rules. It was also called an intimidation practice.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Scott Bessent said that 70 countries had asked to enter into negotiations with the US. This will directly involve President Donald Trump in trade.

The market turmoil caused by Trump's trade tariffs seems to provide hope for a Fed interest rate cut. According to the Fedwatch tool of CME Group, the potential for an interest rate cut to 4%-425% has increased to 55.6%, while the potential for an unchanged interest rate has decreased to 44.4%.

Today, the RBNZ will announce interest rates, which are expected to fall by 3.50% from the current interest rate of 3.75%. Investors will also be paying attention to a speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda that could provide hawkish or dovish hints on Japan’s economic outlook.

China will release today the value of new yuan-denominated loans issued to consumers and businesses during the previous month, which is expected to have risen to 3,020 billion from 1,010 billion previously.

Australian dollar strengthens as Donald Trump suddenly delays tariffs for 90 days

Donald Trump's tariff retort has rocked financial markets again. United States (US) President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on implementing new tariffs for several countries on Wednesday local time.

The delay has caused the USD to weaken again, the AUD/USD pair is seen rising, drawing a bullish candle that is longer than the previous bearish candle. The price formed a high of 0.61758 low of 0.59134, closing at 0.61473.

In Trump's post on Truth Social, he decided to delay the implementation of tariffs in full to more than 75 countries because these countries have contacted US officials to negotiate to find the right solution to the trade problems that he has conveyed in the implementation of the new duties.

Trump also wrote that he would raise tariffs on imported goods from China to 125%, effective immediately. The tariff increase for China was imposed because Beijing was considered to be less respectful of the World Market.

On the other hand, China has again retaliated by raising import tariffs on US goods to 80% from 34%, which will take effect on April 10.

Fed officials noted that uncertainty surrounding trade dynamics and inflation limits their ability to move quickly on interest rates. Barkin of the Richmond Fed and Musalem of the St. Louis Fed emphasized that tariffs complicate the policy landscape and could delay future interest rate adjustments.

According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged has increased by 83.0%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 17.0%, which had previously increased due to Trump's reciprocal policy.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, had fallen to a low of 101.837, which then rose to close at 102.993 in response to the tariff delay. Visually, DXY is still moving below EMA 2,0, reflecting bearish sentiment.

Today, investors will focus on several US economic indicators for CPI and unemployment claims, and RBA Gov Bullock Speaks Due to speak at the Chief Executive Women 40th Anniversary Melbourne Annual Dinner.

The Swiss Franc is getting stronger amidst the trade war, which triggers uncertainty

The USD/CHF currency pair plunged to its lowest level from 20024 to 2025 at 0.82311 amidst global economic uncertainty amid the US-China trade war. As the country with the largest economy in the world, this tension has led to concerns because the economic downturn of the two countries could affect the economies of other countries.

Yesterday, USD/CHF drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 0.85747, a low of 0.82311, and closed at 0.82456. The upper band and lower band that are increasingly moving apart reflect the very high market volatility in Swiss Franc trading, which is one of the safe-haven currencies supported by Trump's tariff policy retiroca.

During the European session, the USD weakened against the Swiss Franc (CHF) amidst increasing trade tensions between the two largest economies, the US and China. The trade war started by Donald Trump with his tariff policy get a response from China.

More than 70 countries affected by Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs have contacted Trump and are hoping for negotiations, prompting Trump to announce a 90-day pause on many new tariffs on trading partners to 10% to allow for trade negotiations with those countries.

However, US-China trade relations have reached crisis levels, with Trump raising tariffs to 125% on Chinese imports on Thursday, up from 104% imposed just a day earlier.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell sharply amid the poor US CPI data. The DXY declined sharply to a low of 100.700 from a high of 103.027, reflecting the dollar’s continued decline since President Donald Trump took office in the White House. The DXY has fallen from a high of 110.176 to a recent low of 100.700 in January-April 2025.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) fell 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the past 12 months, the all-goods index has risen 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustments. The energy index fell 2.4 percent in March, as the gasoline index dropped 6.3 percent, more than the electricity and natural gas index rose. In contrast, the food index rose 0.4 percent in March as the food at home index rose 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month. The all-goods index, except food and energy, rose 0.1 percent in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Meanwhile, unemployment claims were as expected at 223k, up from the previously revised 219k.

Today, investors will be waiting for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to release its Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which is expected to rise 0.3 percent from -0.1 percent. This index measures changes in prices of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy.

USD/CNH volatility increases amid the US-China trade war

The Chinese Yuan currency pair has experienced increased volatility amid the US-China trade war since President Trump implemented a reciprocal tariff policy against all countries considered detrimental to US interests.

Last week, USDCNH experienced increased market volatility, along with President Trump's implementation of the tariff policy. Yuan Chona weakened and reached a high of 7.4288 on April 8. However, the weakening of the Chinese Yuan did not continue and turned stronger against the USD after Trump announced a 90-day delay in the tariff policy following 70 countries requesting tariff negotiations. This policy seems to be decreasing investor confidence and causing the USD to weaken. USDNH has been bearish for three consecutive days. On Friday, the pair formed a high of 7.3354 and a low of 7.2784, closing at 7.2784, trying to cross the middle band line from the upper side.

The dollar index and dollar index futures each fell about 0.7% in Asian trading, continuing the sharp decline overnight. The dollar index also fell below 100 points, approaching the lowest level last seen in April 2022.

Investors appear to be worried about the possibility of a US recession, especially when President Donald Trump raised tariffs on China to 145%, while China imposed tariffs of 125% on Friday, April 1,1, from the previous 84% announced on Wednesday, April 9, on US goods.

The USD was further pressured by weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data for March. The dollar index (DXY) that tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies fell below the 100-day low of 99.014, closing at 99.783 on Friday.

The Fed is likely to show a very cautious stance on Trump's policies, even though analysts expect the Fed to cut interest rates sooner than expected due to the increasing economic pressures from the trade war.

The continued decline in US Treasury prices, amid doubts about the US economy under Trump, also added pressure on the dollar. Yields jumped after a massive sell-off in US Treasuries. The sell-off of US bonds is estimated to have reached US$29 trillion. This massive sell-off has rekindled the Bond Vigilante trend, which reflects a massive sell-off in the bond market due to investor concerns over inconsistent government policies. Their actions have caused yields to rise, which makes government borrowing more expensive. Their actions are a kind of warning from the market.

New Zealand Dollar Strengthens for Fourth Day in a Row amid Weakening US Dollar

The NZDUSD currency pair experienced a four-day bullish streak last week, which continued on Monday. Yesterday, NZDUSD drew a long-bodied bullish candle, extending the previous rally. The price formed a high of 0.58914 and a low of 0.50090, closing at 0.58747.

The New Zealand Dollar had depreciated to a low of 0.54851 on April 9 amid news of Trump's reciprocal tariffs and the US-China trade war.

Buying interest in the New Zealand Dollar has not subsided throughout the first half of trading amid a generally weaker US Dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) is still under selling pressure even though it tried to recover at a high of 100.163 yesterday, but closed at 99.725. The DXY is far below the 20 EMA, indicating strong bearish sentiment.

The New Zealand dollar gained some positive traction as the US dollar weakened after US President Donald Trump announced late Sunday less aggressive tariffs on Chinese imports, including semiconductors and electronics. Trump explained that these goods would still be subject to a 20% tariff on fentanyl rather than the initially rumored 145%.

According to Warketwatch, the 30-year US Treasury yield rose higher than last year, meaning the US government is taking a bigger hit to its fiscal position. Yields are inversely related to prices. Rising yields indicate that bond prices are falling as investors rush to sell them. Friday's sharp rise is evidence that the strategic role of US Treasuries as a safe-haven asset is no longer valid.

This has given rise to the term "Bond Vigilante" which indicates investors punish governments by selling their bonds when they feel they are being too wasteful or fiscally irresponsible.

Trump's seemingly reasonable policies are due to investors being confused about where the Donald Trump administration is headed after the tariff announcement and then the 90-day tariff delay. And the China-US trade war, because Trump took a different policy on China, which increased US tariffs to 145%. This has triggered a trade war, and China retaliated on Friday, raising tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%.

New Zealand benefits from China's economy because of its economic ties with the country. Good Chinese economic data supported the strengthening of the New Zealand Dollar. China's trade surplus, measured in Yuan, jumped to CNY 736.72 billion from CNY 122 billion in February. Exports rose 13.5% year-on-year, accelerating from 3.4% in February, while imports fell 3.5%, a smaller decline compared to the previous 7.3% decline.

China's General Administration of Customs said that foreign trade has shown growth both quantitatively and qualitatively. Officials reiterated China's determination to take necessary measures to counter US actions and protect national sovereignty.

Gold consolidation is not over yet, but positive traction may support it

Yesterday, gold was traded with a small-bodied bullish candle, which was almost the same as the previous bearish candle. Gold consolidated near its all-time high above 3200. XAUUSD formed a high of 3233, a low of 3207, a close of 3228.

Gold selling is still ongoing, but buying is also within normal limits. Investors seem to still be worried about the potential economic impact of the escalating US-China trade war, which in turn supports safe-haven assets such as Gold.

China increased tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation for Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 145%. This keeps Gold prices close to their all-time highs reached on Monday.

Analysts are concerned about the development of the US-China trade war as the US still imports some hard-to-replace materials from China which has weakened US economic confidence and increased fears of a US recession along with bets that the Fed will soon resume its interest rate cut cycle and reduce the interest rate on loans at least three times through 2025. Low interest rates are beneficial for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Global risk sentiment improved after the White House announced on Friday that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be temporarily exempted from reciprocal tariffs. Trump said on Monday he was considering a possible exemption for the automotive industry from the 25% tariffs because companies need more time to switch to parts made in the US.

The temporary exemption has fueled market uncertainty, as Trump also threatened to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical products in the near future.

The performance of the US dollar showed a slight recovery near the low of 99.014 formed on April 11. DXY on April 15 rose to a high of 100.276 low of 99.479 and closed at 100.159. Despite the recovery, the transaction volume has not been able to reverse the situation; DXY is still moving below the EMA 20.

Today, investors will wait for US economic data, retail sales are expected to rise 1.3% from the previous 0.2%. Elsewhere, the BOC will release the overnight rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.75%.

AUD/USD extends gains, could it reach the 200-day MA?

The AUDUSD currency pair on Wednesday drew a bullish candle with a lower high. The price formed a high of 0.63911 low of 0.63222, and closed at 0.63727. This increase extended the bullish sentiment of AUDUSD that started on April 9, where AUDUSD collapsed at a low of 0.559134.

The bullish sentiment on AUDUSD gives hope that it can reach the resistance level based on the 200-day MA at 0.64795. However, it must be able to pass the resistance of 0.63084, which is the high price on February 21. The previous increase was driven by optimism around China's GDP, which grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q1, beating estimates. However, this rebound remains fragile amid ongoing US-China trade tensions and the Aussie's role as a proxy for Chinese demand.

The trade war remains a key issue for the Australian dollar, given Australia’s close economic ties with China and its heavy reliance on commodity exports, which increases its exposure to these tensions. President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of between 10% and 50% has sparked talk of retaliatory measures, raising fears of a full-blown trade war. Such a development could dampen global growth, push up consumer prices, and complicate central bank policy decisions.

The US-China trade war has been the most in the spotlight for economists, with President Trump imposing tariffs of 145% on certain Chinese goods. China retaliated shortly after with tariffs of 125% on US goods imported into China, up from 84%. This has again angered the US, which has threatened to impose tariffs of 245%, as China has retaliated with increased tariffs.

Australia’s strategists say the Australian dollar remains a barometer of the US-China trade dispute. The RBA is likely to ease policy in May, but the main driver of the AUD will be developments in the commodity trade. Domestically, the Australian economy is facing pressure from global decoupling, and an expected RBA interest rate cut in May could limit upside potential.

The dollar index, which is the benchmark for the USD against six major currencies, is still weakening. The DXY shows a bearish sentiment with a bearish candle with a low of 99.174 failing to extend its recovery after reaching a high of 100.104. The DXY is moving away from the 20-day MA, which reflects a strong bearish sentiment.

US retail sales showed an increase of 1.4% MoM in March, slightly above expectations, while retail sales YoY rose 4.6%. On the other hand, China's Q1 GDP surprised to the upside at 5.4% YoY; March activity indicators also beat estimates.

The RBA is expected to cut rates in May, although China's proxy status makes the AUD vulnerable to external headwinds. However, Governor Michele Bullock highlighted the challenge of bringing inflation back within the 2-3% target. This decision is generally considered hawkish, reducing the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May 20 meeting from 80% to 70%.

Today, investors will highlight some important economic data, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate in Australia, which may trigger the movement of AUD today. On the other hand, the US will also release Unemployment Claims data, which is expected to increase slightly. And what is awaited is the speech of Fed Chair Powell, who speaks on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, which may give subtle hints that are hawkish or dovish and can trigger market speculation.

Oil prices rise in response to US sanctions on Iran

WTI oil prices rose, breaking out of the consolidation zone, extending the previous bullish candle, and successfully breaking through the resistance zone of 61.28. Yesterday, WTI oil prices with the symbol XTIUSD drew a long-bodied bullish candle with few shadows. Oil prices formed a high of 64.17, a low of 61.95, and a closing at 63.65.

Oil prices plunged to a low of 54.72 on April 9 but quickly rebounded to a high of 62.49 on the same day. Fluctuations in oil prices occurred along with Trump's tariff policy, which had an impact on several financial markets. Another reason is a rumour that OPEC+ will increase supply in May.

Recently, oil prices rose due to concerns about a tighter supply chain following new US sanctions on Iran. On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, including measures against a "teapot" refinery based in China. The US move is aimed at suppressing Iranian exports amid rising tensions over its nuclear program. According to a statement from the US Treasury Department, the sanctions are intended to prevent Chinese imports of Iranian oil as President Trump ramps up his “maximum pressure” campaign, which aims to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero.

Elsewhere, OPEC said it had received new plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other producers planning additional production cuts to offset previous overproduction.

On the oil demand side, crude oil prices are supported by optimism amid US-China trade negotiations. China has shown a willingness to engage in talks, provided several key conditions are met. Oil prices have risen more than 2% this week, positioning themselves for the first weekly gain this month.

However, despite the support from the oil price increase, analysts are still skeptical about further gains as OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan have all lowered their oil demand forecasts due to trade tensions caused by the trade war. Elsewhere, the WTO has also lowered its global trade forecast from previously projecting a 3.0% expansion to a 0.2% decline this year.

Market sluggish due to bank holiday, EUR/USD slightly up in weekend trading

The weakening dollar index (DXY) impacts the EURUSD currency pair following the rising channel. In Friday's trading session, EURUSD drew a bullish candle with a body almost the same as the previous bearish candle. The price formed a high of 1.13978, a low of 1.13573, and a closing of 1.13929.

The EURUSD price movement on Friday tended to be flat, which was seen on the hourly timeframe from the emergence of the Bollinger band squeeze, which reflected very low market volatility. Many European and Australian banks were closed to commemorate Good Friday, which has significantly reduced forex trading volume and caused the market to be sluggish. Today, many banks are mostly closed to commemorate Easter Day, which is predicted to have an impact on the sluggish currency market.

Although there was no high-impact news release today, investors' focus is still more on the United States' (US) controversial trade policies. Although the dollar index (DXY), which is used as a benchmark for the USD against six major currencies, has weakened significantly, the Trump administration seems to be moving forward with imposing tariffs on Chinese ships docked in US ports, further escalating the China-US trade war. The two largest economies could cause a global economic downturn.

Trump’s massive tariffs on many countries, including Europe, could change the international trade landscape in the long term. As stated by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who asserted that the traditional idea of a united West is a thing of the past. She indicated that the European Union (EU) no longer sees the United States (US) as its most important trading partner, following the massive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

Ursula’s comments came after the Trump administration imposed a massive 20% tariff on all EU goods and a 25% tariff on all car imports in an attempt to eliminate what Washington sees as a large trade deficit. The EU responded by introducing a series of retaliatory tariffs of 25% on US imports. Trump then announced a 90-day pause on most global tariffs last week.

The impact of Trump’s tariffs has been that more countries are trying to approach the EU as their trading partners. Ursula said that trade with the US is only 13%, and 87% of world trade is done with other countries.

Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron urged European companies to halt new investments in the US, asking, “What message are we sending by investing billions of dollars… while they keep hitting us?”

Meanwhile, the US also appears to be experiencing political turmoil, with Trump even threatening to dismiss Powell over his dissenting views on tariffs and interest rate policy. While market participants did not react much to this statement, recently, White House Senior Advisor Kevin Hassett confirmed that “Trump is studying whether firing Powell from the Fed is an option.”

The dollar index (DXY) is currently trading at a low of 99.229, although still within its previous low range but is well below its 20 EMA, indicating strong bearish sentiment, with the DXY likely to fall further if it breaks the low of 99.104.