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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #281
  • Edited 1:47pm Apr 2, 2025 1:33pm | Edited 1:47pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Last test. Trying to take back what USDCAD has already taken. This pair has been consolidating mostly above the trend and above the whole level. The range is still around 46, compared to the usual 98, so there might be further decline. SL 33 pips (0.5%, 1 unit), No TP. {image}
Range 3 is about to end, and USDCAD still hasn't dropped, now forming an Ascending Flag. TP set at 66 pips. It seems unlikely to succeed.
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  • #282
  • Apr 2, 2025 2:53pm Apr 2, 2025 2:53pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Range 3 is about to end, and USDCAD still hasn't dropped, now forming an Ascending Flag. TP set at 66 pips. It seems unlikely to succeed. {image} {image} {image}
The price won't go down anymore, and soon Trump will speak. Lol what are they doing at my selling price?
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  • #283
  • Edited 4:02pm Apr 2, 2025 3:16pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} The price won't go down anymore, and soon Trump will speak. Lol what are they doing at my selling price? {image}
And then... See? Lel
No Trade during High Impact News, Alas!
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  • #284
  • Edited 8:53am Apr 3, 2025 8:18am | Edited 8:53am
The extraordinary impact, may be some "little Grey Swan" - of the implementation of the Reciprocal Tariff by Trump on countries worldwide has caused a global weakening of the USD, during the Asian session (Range 1) and the European session (Range 2) - 16 hours. In Range 3 (American session) - 8 hours to go, the USD may bounce back. Maybe with the help of Red News soon, but of course, We never know for sure.

No one knows anything, yet acting like they know something is a massive phenomenon on this extraordinary day. They guess, then a minute later they're wrong, yet they keep humming along with all their psychobabble.

Anyway, Lol and Cheers to everyone!
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  • #285
  • Edited 1:13pm Apr 3, 2025 12:29pm | Edited 1:13pm
Personal Trade Copier from Fx Blue seems to be a good copy trading tool right now...

Quote
The Personal Trade Copier duplicates trades between any installations of MT4 or MT5 on the same computer - simply use the MT4 EA in MT4, and the MT5 EA in MT5. Supports any broker. Copying is almost instant, limited only by your broker's speed. Hundreds of settings, including the ability to change lot sizing and risk, invert trade direction, control which trades are copied, and even extend the copier with your own MQL code.

https://www.fxblue.com/appstore/personal-trade-copier
https://www.fxblue.com/appstore/2/mt...l-trade-copier
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  • #286
  • Apr 3, 2025 1:08pm Apr 3, 2025 1:08pm
Revisiting Gaming Prop Firms

Looking back at the challenge data from so many gaming prop firms out there, thanks to Prop Firm Match, the available data is now easy to sort. Currently, the two cheapest challenges for a 25k account, 1-step, static drawdown, and offering MT4 or MT5 platforms are from Blueberry Funded and Instant Funding, still under $150—others are quite expensive. Then, looking again at the challenge rules to see which are simpler, Blueberry Funded and Instant Funding seem much simpler compared to Funding Pips, Finotive Funding (which has a bad reputation out there), and Funded Next (personal experience here was unimpressive, really bad).

Another thought is to stick with what was previously uncomplicated; all challenges created beyond one step are less useful, though they represent a variation of the business. Also, a challenge account above 100k is actually far from realistic—it serves more as a marketing promotion for influencers. Challenges can simply be divided into three or four groups, whether three groups of 33k, 67k, or 100k, or four groups of 25k, 50k, 75k, and 100k. Beyond that, it might be suitable for traders who have managed to consistently profit for three or four consecutive months, and who perhaps deserve a live account, salary, and bonus—to hedge the risk of the prop firm's own gaming. A 10k account might be suitable for practice or trial purposes. Instant accounts should be redeemed at a high price, as they are unsuitable from any investment standpoint.
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  • #287
  • Apr 3, 2025 2:25pm Apr 3, 2025 2:25pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
The extraordinary impact, may be some "little Grey Swan" - of the implementation of the Reciprocal Tariff by Trump on countries worldwide has caused a global weakening of the USD, during the Asian session (Range 1) and the European session (Range 2) - 16 hours. In Range 3 (American session) - 8 hours to go, the USD may bounce back. Maybe with the help of Red News soon, but of course, We never know for sure. No one knows anything, yet acting like they know something is a massive phenomenon on this extraordinary day. They guess, then a minute later...
I know nothing for certain except that NFP may be quite interesting
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #288
  • Edited 7:39pm Apr 3, 2025 6:12pm | Edited 7:39pm
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} I know nothing for certain except that NFP may be quite interesting
So, how was the last game of the week? Did it go up as much as it went down? 7x fold? Lol I guess reverse polarity. Then in the end off course Red News.

On Friday, try buying and selling after the first 2 hours (initial balance range), just use small risk — one unit at 0.5%, who knows, it might work. There's still 13 hours until the long Red News. USDJPY 1/3 aDtr 48 pips. EURUSD 1/3 aDtr 31 pips. Lol
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  • #289
  • Edited 7:30pm Apr 3, 2025 7:12pm | Edited 7:30pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} So, how was the last game of the week? Did it go up as much as it went down? 7x fold? Lol I guess reverse polarity. Then in the end off course Red News. On Friday, try buying and selling after the first 2 hours (initial balance range), just use small risk — one unit at 0.5%, who knows, it might work. There's still 13 hours until the long Red News. USDJPY 1/3 aDtr 47 pips. EURUSD 1/3 aDtr 31 pips. Lol {image} {image}
USDJPY progress Good, SL to BE
EURUSD still there

Note:
This is just Demo. Not Reality.
Not Gaming Propfirm Demo (which has skin in the game, too).
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  • #290
  • Apr 3, 2025 8:11pm Apr 3, 2025 8:11pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} USDJPY progress Good, SL to BE EURUSD still there Note: This is just Demo. Not Reality. Not Gaming Propfirm Demo (which has skin in the game, too). {image} {image}
USDJPY BE hit. Then the price quickly reversed direction. +56 pips turned to dust.
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  • #291
  • Apr 3, 2025 9:21pm Apr 3, 2025 9:21pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} USDJPY BE hit. Then the price quickly reversed direction. +56 pips turned to dust. {image}
EUR rising and hit Stop. Loss -0.5%.
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  • #292
  • Apr 4, 2025 3:03am Apr 4, 2025 3:03am
After the London Open, the southward trade direction becomes clear, making it easier with less stop hunting. Sayonara! Lol
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  • #293
  • Apr 4, 2025 3:37am Apr 4, 2025 3:37am
Sell again EU, 1 unit 0.5% risk, 31 pips
Lower and lower (descending) wicks ...
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  • #294
  • Apr 4, 2025 10:46am Apr 4, 2025 10:46am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Sell again EU, 1 unit 0.5% risk, 31 pips Lower and lower (descending) wicks ... {image} {image}
Hit BE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #295
  • Edited 11:51am Apr 4, 2025 11:05am | Edited 11:51am
Some pairs moved insanely today, above 333 pips
GBPJPY, GBPNZD, EURNZD, GBPAUD, EURAUD, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, AUDCAD

Extremely Extreme Day!
EURAUD: 848 pips / 48 pips (1/3 aDtr, 1 unit). It would be 17.7x (if 0.5%, 8.85% move).
Insane! Lol
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  • #296
  • Edited 12:06pm Apr 4, 2025 11:23am | Edited 12:06pm
EURUSD Short again! Risk 0.5%, 31 pips.
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  • #297
  • Apr 4, 2025 12:30pm Apr 4, 2025 12:30pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} So, how was the last game of the week? Did it go up as much as it went down? 7x fold? Lol I guess reverse polarity. Then in the end off course Red News. On Friday, try buying and selling after the first 2 hours (initial balance range), just use small risk — one unit at 0.5%, who knows, it might work. There's still 13 hours until the long Red News. USDJPY 1/3 aDtr 48 pips. EURUSD 1/3 aDtr 31 pips. Lol {image} {image} {image}
Some candles at 6 am ET went against me hard on Nas in gaming prop. I was out for the rest of the day. Excited for the new week though.
Still learning to be fine with losses and not pushing to recover immediately.
I see your pairs were exceedingly well behaved today! 333 pips is nice movement.
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #298
  • Edited 1:14pm Apr 4, 2025 1:02pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} Some candles at 6 am ET went against me hard on Nas in gaming prop. I was out for the rest of the day. Excited for the new week though. Still learning to be fine with losses and not pushing to recover immediately. I see your pairs were exceedingly well behaved today! 333 pips is nice movement.
Today was an extremely rare day—let's call it a grey swan for some currency pairs, not a black swan, but still, it was hard to anticipate. Who would have thought that today, certain forex pairs could move nearly 1,000 pips, not yesterday?

I’m documenting all these observations to help me develop a long-term trading methodology, particularly for the Forex market, complete with daily risk percentage calculations. Trading on a regular live account is almost free rules, but the challenge here lies in targeting a prop firm’s gaming account with its extensive set of rigid rules.

When analyzing risk, the math supports a solid reachable, modest monthly target limit of 7.0% with risk levels of 1.0%, 0.5%, and 0.33%. For context, Darwinex Zero uses 6.0% per month in its risk calculations. To achieve median 0.5% daily through 1, 2, or 3 trades a day with patience. Beyond that, maintaining the discipline to trade only when the London Open arrives is incredibly tough.
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  • #299
  • Apr 4, 2025 1:27pm Apr 4, 2025 1:27pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Today was an extremely rare day—let's call it a grey swan for some currency pairs, not a black swan, but still, it was hard to anticipate. Who would have thought that today, certain forex pairs could move nearly 1,000 pips, not yesterday? I’m documenting all these observations to help me develop a long-term trading methodology, particularly for the Forex market, complete with daily risk percentage calculations. Trading on a regular live account is almost free rules, but the challenge here lies in targeting a prop firm’s gaming account with...
I was interested in the move today that was before news and News and Fed chair speech had not much effect as compared to that move. I usually look at CoT so I'm interested to see what will be happening this week. I think the impact of the speeh and the red folder will be seen next week.
On trading London, I have the same issue. How I trade I'm supposed to engage during the open of Asia, London and NY, whichever I choose but sometimes I lack the patience usually regrettably. I think 7% is reasonable. I've never really considered monthly return vs monthly risk and I think I am going to start doing that. From what I have observed though with a few tweaks to what I'm doing I think I will be able to achieve that soon. When I do I will increase my target.
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #300
  • Apr 4, 2025 1:44pm Apr 4, 2025 1:44pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
EURUSD Short again! Risk 0.5%, 31 pips. {image}
End of the day.
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