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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #10,341
  • Mar 29, 2025 3:24am Mar 29, 2025 3:24am
Quoting Nala66
I always trade when the market tends to have to most movement. A flat market makes it very difficult to make any money and I'm not in it to waste my time. I don't know if the market is going to perform or not, I simply assume it will and by far the most times I will be correct. Protection of the account is of paramount importance so if I am wrong in my analysis I get out for very little loss. I can add these losses to my target to get both my losses back plus my profit. It is a rare day when I lose 1% and if I do, I will...Patience is something most traders completely lack....
Regarding what you mentioned above that I highlighted, waiting for the price to hit the proper setup is quite challenging, especially when this waiting follows one or several losing trades—it’s truly a period of painful anticipation. FOMO makes me picture in my head that it’s time to perform a two-bar test or to jump into any div, when in reality the correct approach should be to wait for that div to occur at the ZOO, for instance. The second challenge is recognizing when my analysis is off and exiting the trade early to minimize losses—a skill that requires significant refinement. Sometimes, if I exit too early, it might just be a fake move, and the price continues in the direction I originally predicted. This, in turn, makes me even more impatient when entering trades.
Being truly patient and always accepting when you are wrong are two qualities I believe every trader must attain if they hope to be among the top 5%.
  • #10,342
  • Mar 29, 2025 3:40am Mar 29, 2025 3:40am
Quoting Nala66
Just take a look at this daily chart. How can anyone possibly not make money by simply trading the averages. There is no theory or obscure wordage involved it is simply what you see is what you get. All these magenta circles are great ZOO points paying hundreds of pips. This chart is great for those of us who work and need to be very selective of the opportunities. We can place pending orders together with the appropriate stops. We could easily risk 50 pips ($50) for a reward of 100 pips ($100) or more. {image} When we up the trading distance like...
Due to a lack of screentime I will give the daily chart another looksee. This has got to be tradable and I must leave the trade to run its course instead of tinkering too much. Thanks again Alan
  • #10,343
  • Mar 29, 2025 7:00am Mar 29, 2025 7:00am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Due to a lack of screentime I will give the daily chart another looksee. This has got to be tradable and I must leave the trade to run its course instead of tinkering too much. Thanks again Alan
I was thinking of your situation as I was writing this. Let us know how it pans out. Try it with the smallest amount because the ZOO point on the daily may take a couple of days for the action to begin proper.

A 10c per pip can at worst only be 10c x 50 = 5 bucks.
  • #10,344
  • Mar 29, 2025 9:14pm Mar 29, 2025 9:14pm
To continue with the daily chart...

I have spoken of the Big Breaking Bars (BBB) previously, I think I called them "impulse bars". Well, here on the chart below we see them in action.

Notice only one of them turned around to make the breakout false. All this and we haven't even used the indicators yet.

The thing to do now is to take each of those magenta circles and find where they fit on the 1-hour chart and see what was happening there. This would probably take all day, so I won't be doing much of that myself. You guys need to do some work for yourselves.
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I have removed the higher time frame EMA's to make this as clear as I can and will stick with the candles also because they are thicker than bars to be more easily seen. When you get a quiet couple of hours take the time to study the circles. Let me know if you find something I don't know
  • #10,345
  • Mar 29, 2025 9:58pm Mar 29, 2025 9:58pm
Here is the 1-hour chart for the past week. Look at all those support and resistance levels. All those Big Breaking Bars crashing through the levels.

The grid on this chart (grey and white) is my 40-pip distance. It is not very often that it doesn't make this in a day and most times very much more.

This is why I put a lot of stock into the levels and will look to the lower time frames as each of these levels is approached. This is a lot of work monitoring the different times and drawing the respective levels on each. To try and trade more than one pair we would be better with a team of people and then call ourselves institutional traders. As a bull bar is approaching a level on the hour chart, we look to the lower time frames to gain an idea of what is happening. For example, we may see a divergence forming indicating the hour will not break. We can apply quite a tight stop at the 5 min level and may get multiple entries in our winning trade to compound our profits.

Check it out to see what is so obvious to me from long experience....
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  • #10,346
  • Mar 30, 2025 9:46pm Mar 30, 2025 9:46pm
Just hit the D of the 1-hour ABCD
  • #10,347
  • Mar 30, 2025 10:04pm Mar 30, 2025 10:04pm
Hello Alan, i have a question, will you consider signal at 1 as HD bull ? HD bull according to you is REGULAR DIV bull and price push back before close, but is it also count as HD if signal is RSI fast DIV with RSI slow before bar close ?? As chart below show, before the time bar close, we have RSI DIV bull here, but after bar close, we don't have RSI DIV bull anymore
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  • #10,348
  • Mar 31, 2025 12:23am Mar 31, 2025 12:23am
Quoting eliotjng
Hello Alan, i have a question, will you consider signal at 1 as HD bull ? HD bull according to you is REGULAR DIV bull and price push back before close, but is it also count as HD if signal is RSI fast DIV with RSI slow before bar close ?? As chart below show, before the time bar close, we have RSI DIV bull here, but after bar close, we don't have RSI DIV bull anymore {image}
I couldn't see anything at all in the location you discuss. No bull div and no HD.

The trades came a bit later as shown below...
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The area you refer to is between the two vertical lines.
  • #10,349
  • Mar 31, 2025 10:25am Mar 31, 2025 10:25am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I couldn't see anything at all in the location you discuss. No bull div and no HD. The trades came a bit later as shown below... {image} The area you refer to is between the two vertical lines.
Thank Alan, i got this.
1) BEFORE HTF bar (H1) close, we can play with HD (which is REG DIV on lower timeframe).
2) AFTER HTF bar (H1) close, we can play with REG DIV or RSI fast/low DIV.

I just think maybe BEFORE HTF bar close, if we see a DIV due to RSI fast/slow, maybe we can entry. But look like it is not work.
  • #10,350
  • Apr 2, 2025 8:34pm Apr 2, 2025 8:34pm
Swing high = 1.32xxx on D1 go ahead
  • #10,351
  • Apr 2, 2025 10:40pm Apr 2, 2025 10:40pm
Quoting prohaha
Swing high = 1.32xxx on D1 go ahead
Looks promising hey!
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Might take some time though.
  • #10,352
  • Apr 2, 2025 10:47pm Apr 2, 2025 10:47pm
The next swing high on the 1-hour chart is 1.33966
  • #10,353
  • Apr 2, 2025 10:51pm Apr 2, 2025 10:51pm
Quoting Nala66
The next swing high on the 1-hour chart is 1.33966
Even consolidation at this current level is going to drag the average skywards.
  • #10,354
  • Apr 2, 2025 11:05pm Apr 2, 2025 11:05pm
We can see on this hourly chart we are at the last level before a wide-open space. Let's see if the bulls can break it.
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This is why I expect consolidation of sorts.
  • #10,355
  • Apr 2, 2025 11:24pm Apr 2, 2025 11:24pm
Quoting Nala66
We can see on this hourly chart we are at the last level before a wide-open space. Let's see if the bulls can break it. {image} This is why I expect consolidation of sorts.
With only a 10% discounter tariff from the US, this is good news for the bull, so I expect it to break the last level soon.
  • #10,356
  • Apr 2, 2025 11:42pm Apr 2, 2025 11:42pm
Quoting prohaha
{quote} With only a 10% discounter tariff from the US, this is good news for the bull, so I expect it to break the last level soon.
I don't take much notice of the Trump tariffs. The people who buy the luxury UK cars don't even ask the price and the UK is hardly going to move it's plants to the US just to save a few bob.

In the scheme of things, the US is not such a huge market as Trump would have us believe. I can't see this affecting the Asian markets much at all. We are talking billions of people whereas the us is just millions. Would these companies leave and risk a huge market against a minor one, I think not.

The problem with the US is they have nothing to sell which other countries can produce much cheaper with far better supply chains, much cheaper consumables (Oil, Electricity, Labour etc.)

I stick to the charts and what they tell me, long or short it matters not.
  • #10,357
  • Apr 3, 2025 1:46am Apr 3, 2025 1:46am
Well, I was dead wrong about it consolidating here.
  • #10,358
  • Apr 3, 2025 9:39am Apr 3, 2025 9:39am
Quoting Nala66
Well, I was dead wrong about it consolidating here.
However, it is consolidating here
  • #10,359
  • Edited 11:44pm Apr 3, 2025 9:15pm | Edited 11:44pm
Let's have a bit of a review here because I know the message associated with trading is a complicated business to absorb into our grey matter.

The do nots.

1) I have no faith at all in news, current events or trading theories. These things will play havoc with our minds preconditioning us into thinking trades despite the reality. The charts themselves hold all the reality and the signals to trade them both entries and targets.

2) If there is no signal then there is no trade period. Jumping in on a hunch will invariably lose you money, this is simply a question of luck because it is a gamble.

3) There is no such thing as overbought or oversold these are just assumptions not facts and trading on these can get you into a lot of trouble.

4) Never assume you have read the chart correctly and that it is safe to add to your losing trade. This is by far the biggest account killer. Hold your hand up if you have done this and lost big time. Some people are much more ready to accept the pain than they are to accept the prosperity of winning. I am not a psychologist, so I have no clue why this is, I just know it from past experience.

5) Do not overplay you hand by placing the maximum of your capital on a trade. A loss means you cannot repeat the same amount because you have lost the money to do so. This is why we calculate the pip distance, so we know how much to invest make our profit return say 2%. If it is 2% then our risk should always be an initial half of this = 1%. We cannot say for certain our trade will produce the desired 2% because counter signals may cause us to close early and then place another trade later to make up the difference.

6) Let the charts and the signals within control you're trading not what others are saying in forums and the like. There are millions of experts out there who in reality simply do not have a clue. Your money, your call.

7) Don't assume that price will run directly to the target. The market is adept at chopping and changing direction either in the long or short terms and will signal this event happening. This is why I put arrows or my charts to the suspected target, it reminds me to watch for signals taking price there. I may have to close the trade just to resume it later or even chance a trade in the opposite direction.

8) The most important thing is to not lose too much money that makes it difficult to recoup. Anyone should not find it too difficult to recoup a 1% loss just by trading normally without over doing it with larger lots than we can't readily manage.

Next, I will discuss what we should be doing, maybe tomorrow.
  • #10,360
  • Apr 4, 2025 3:56am Apr 4, 2025 3:56am
Quoting Nala66
Let's have a bit of a review here because I know the message associated with trading is a complicated business to absorb into our grey matter. The do nots. 1) I have no faith at all in news, current events or trading theories. These things will play havoc with our minds preconditioning us into thinking trades despite the reality. The charts themselves hold all the reality and the signals to trade them both entries and targets. 2) If there is no signal then there is no trade period. Jumping in on a hunch will invariably lose you money, this is simply...
Thanks so much for your 'do-not' list. I will add those things to my trading rules.
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