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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #2,061
  • Dec 1, 2006 9:16am Dec 1, 2006 9:16am
is EURCAD the next EURJPY? this thing wont stop
  • #2,062
  • Dec 1, 2006 9:23am Dec 1, 2006 9:23am
"is EURCAD the next EURJPY? this thing wont stop"

Sure it will. Everything does eventually. Have faith. Nothing goes forever. It wasn't that long ago that we were reading about how the GBP and EUR were overpriced. It keeps reversing it seems.
  • #2,063
  • Dec 1, 2006 10:03am Dec 1, 2006 10:03am
Quoting itme
GBP/USD uptrend is headed for 1.9830/35

EUR/USD " 1.3330

USD/CHF " 1.1910, next stop is 1.1820

EUR/CAD " " .9100

USD/JPY " 1.1500
talked with some broker and he said that 1.3360 is the top of the EU do you think itme it can reach so much?
{Link removed, Spam, see rule 2}
  • #2,064
  • Dec 1, 2006 11:00am Dec 1, 2006 11:00am
Friday December 1 at 11:30 ET

The target we gave for CAD/JPY of 100.97 was the most conservative target. With the market being on steroids this morning, the movement was augmented, surpassing this target. Actually, I made an error, and the correct conservative target is actually 100.83, not 100.97. But with the market being on steroids this morning, the modified target is 100.30. It stopped for a pause at the end of wave 3 at 100.55, but after the wave 4 rest is finished it should continue its journey down to 100.30. This adds 67 pips to the original target for Part II of the trade, which increases the RRR for Part II to 4.0 : 1 and the cumulative RRR to 14.5

________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________
Previous comments:

Near miss of entry into winning trade here - Trade Signal #260 Sell CAD/JPY at 103.00 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Friday December 1 at 7:30 ET

When I placed the trade signal for this trade experiment - Trade Signal #260 Sell CAD/JPY at 103.00, I was thinking that the sensible thing would be to place the entry price at the current price (at the time) of 102.98, rather than risk losing the trade over 2 pips.

But, just to be a little nutty, I entered the price of 103.00, only 2 pips higher than the current price, which I thought at the time was the system correct entry price. And sure enough - it didn't even rise 2 pips more to catch the entry price that I thought, according to my analysis, it should meet.

But the inherent error in my analysis is at least 3- 5 pips - so the thinking that underlay my decision was obviously flawed. Anyways, the trade concept was basically correct, except for the fussy entry price 2 pips off of the actual top. A vindication for my trading system, and another lesson learnt - don't try to be a perfectionist! If I hadn't made the stupid error of going for an extra 2 pips, the result would have been: Reward is 150 pips; Reward : Risk ratio is 3.6 to 1.

I just checked my calculations, and the correct entry price according to our system was 102.96 - so the error was in my calculations, not the system, as well as my fussiness and over-confidence in my system , which is pretty amazingly accurate and reliable if I can manage to apply it correctly.

The low so far is 101.12, 19 pips past our target of 101.40. (The corrected target was 101.36. By monitoring the trade carefully and correcting the target, the result would improve to Reward is 154 pips;
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.75 to 1.) The target was deliberately set at the expected bottom of Wave 3. After our target was hit, the price rose in a large, clearly defined A-B-C Wave 4, up to 102.05, which was exactly where our system would have placed the top of Wave C. The correct play would have been to re-enter a sell trade at 102.05, and to trade down Wave 5 with the same stop as before, but with a new target of 100.97.

If Part II of this trade, the trade from the top of Wave 4 to the bottom of Wave 5, is successful, then the result will be a RRR of 2.4 : 1 for Part II. Therefore the cumulative RRR of the two parts of the trade will be 9.0 :1

Note to all the naysayers out there who might be reading this: though my system is not perfect yet, and my execution is less than flawless, this one anaemic trade with a RRR of only 3.6 to 1 in Part I, if I had entered it live, and did everything right, and if it hits its target for Part II, would balance out 6 losing trades.
__________________________________________________ _______
__________________________________________________ _______

Tuesday November 28 at 6:45 ET
Trade Signal #260 Sell CAD/JPY at 103.00
Stop is 103.31
Target is 101.40
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 150 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.6 to 1

For research purposes only.

The price may not rise again to reach our entry price on this trade. Furthermore, the RRR is less than 5.0 to 1. This trade is simply an experiment to test our theory and to practise our skills in implementing it.
  • #2,065
  • Dec 1, 2006 1:39pm Dec 1, 2006 1:39pm
Friday December 1 at 10:00 ET

 Trade Signal #268 Sell EUR/JPY at 154.00

Stop is 154.26

Target is 153.00

Risk is 29 pips

Reward is 151 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

This is a retroactive trade, to test our wave theory. The wave count is somewhat confusing, but the entry point is a very precise and strong high probability reversal value. We are not sure, but this may be a corrective fourth wave down.
_________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________

Previous comment:

EUR/JPY Update for Tuesday November 28 at 4:30 ET

The upwards wave three just completed (presumably) was somewhat larger than expected, because USD/JPY rose in tandem with the strong rise in EUR/USD, instead of falling as is the usual behavior of USD/JPY while EUR/USD rises.

We expect next on EUR/JPY a large Wave 4 A-B-C downwards corrective wave followed by the final upwards impulse wave to about 155.00
  • #2,066
  • Edited 8:04pm Dec 2, 2006 11:56am | Edited 8:04pm
Saturday December 2, 2006 at 12:30 ET

Trade Experiment #246B Sell AUD/CAD at .9100

Stop is .9131

Target #1 is .8500

Risk is 40 pips

Reward is 591 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 14.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note that this is the third attempt to predict the turning point of this massive trend which has carried AUD/CAD up 783 pips so far. At each attempt, the reward : risk ratio increases - from 6.1 to 8.8 and now up to 14.8.

If this third attempt is successful, then the cumulative return on the three trades, based on a Risk Factor of 15%, will be .85 X .85 X 14.8 X .15 = 60%
__________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

Friday December 1 at 10:12 ET

predicting endpoints of current uptrend of GBP/USD , etc.
AUD/CAD " .9100 (hit .9071)
______________________________________________________
Thursday November 30 at 12:15 ET

We were stopped out of Trade Signal #246 due to several data releases that caused a strong rise in AUD/USD, and for some reason a concurrent rise in USD/CAD. If it hadn't been for these influential data releases and the unusual response of the CAD, then the original trade concept would almost surely have been successfull.

Trade Signal #246A Sell AUD/CAD at .9018
Stop is .9061
Target is .8600
Risk is 47 pips
Reward is 414 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.8 to 1
For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->

__________________________________________________ __________
__________________________________________________ __________
Adjust entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8973 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">Wednesday November 29 at 19:00 ET

The entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8930 was missed by only 1 pip. Upon further analysis we feel that this was only the top of Wave 3, and that another rise is possible. Therefore adjust entry price to .8973, and stop to .9006.

Adjust entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD to .8973
Adjust stop for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD to .9006

 The target stays the same, so the reward : risk ratio will be increased to 6.1 : 1
_________________________________________________
_________________________________________________
Wednesday November 29 at 8:45 ET

The trade opportunity that has been predicted for some time is very near now:
Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8930
Stop is .8961
Target is .8700
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 220 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.3 to 1
For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->
__________________________________________________ _________
__________________________________________________ _________

Thursday November 23 at 21:00 ET

I will repost my previous AUD/CAD trade signal. This still looks like a fine opportunity to short at either .8880 or .8890 after a very long trend upwards that has been underway since September 28 and will have carried the price up 590 pips.
_______________________________________ ___________
__________________________________________________ ___________

Monday November 20 at 17:00 ET

Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8890
Stop is .8925
Target is .8660
Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 221 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.0 to 1
For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->

Note: the entry price should be reached in a few days, and as early as November 21.
  • #2,067
  • Dec 2, 2006 8:13pm Dec 2, 2006 8:13pm
According to my model, the market can always move further than expected. That is due to fundamental events and developments that augment technical necessities or natural eventualities.

The good news is that it seems that it is possible to predict a minimum target with considerable confidence. It is also possible to recognise an end of travel, or at least a potential end of travel, with considerable confidence. That's why we try to not so much to predict an entry, as to anticipate and then confirm an entry price. When we enter a trade experiment, we can quite reliably predict the minimum travel or high confidence target. But the price can easily go further than our conservative target, and often does. The target is the minimum travel, not the maximum or most probable reversal point. It is a most conservative minimum target.

So in answer to the question, "I talked with some broker and he said that 1.3360 is the top of the EU do you think itme it can reach so much?" by adsense - YES, by all means, it can easily go farther than our estimated minimum target, which is also our most likely reversal point, especially when it is engaged in an out of control runaway breakout trend like it is now. But it will eventually stop and turn around, as soon as it has sufficiently overshot the price where it should actually be, then it will turn around and keep going until it's overshot in the other direction, as it always does.
  • #2,068
  • Dec 2, 2006 10:41pm Dec 2, 2006 10:41pm
Quote
The implications of perfect success would be that we could more than double our capital daily. If this is achieved, if we started with $10 K, then we would earn all the money in the entire planet in about 5 weeks.

It's been more then a year... So can you make a bilan???
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #2,069
  • Dec 2, 2006 10:47pm Dec 2, 2006 10:47pm
Do you base your forecast over Demark support and resistance/Mouteki method? So what is the ratio of good/bad signal so far did you made some statistic?

Quoting itme
According to my model, the market can always move further than expected. That is due to fundamental events and developments that augment technical necessities or natural eventualities.

The good news is that it seems that it is possible to predict a minimum target with considerable confidence. It is also possible to recognise an end of travel, or at least a potential end of travel, with considerable confidence. That's why we try to not so much to predict an entry, as to anticipate and then confirm an entry price. When we enter a trade experiment, we can quite reliably predict the minimum travel or high confidence target. But the price can easily go further than our conservative target, and often does. The target is the minimum travel, not the maximum or most probable reversal point. It is a most conservative minimum target.

So in answer to the question, "I talked with some broker and he said that 1.3360 is the top of the EU do you think itme it can reach so much?" by adsense - YES, by all means, it can easily go farther than our estimated minimum target, which is also our most likely reversal point, especially when it is engaged in an out of control runaway breakout trend like it is now. But it will eventually stop and turn around, as soon as it has sufficiently overshot the price where it should actually be, then it will turn around and keep going until it's overshot in the other direction, as it always does.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #2,070
  • Dec 2, 2006 10:57pm Dec 2, 2006 10:57pm
is perfect success possible in a flawed world?
  • #2,071
  • Edited 4:34pm Dec 3, 2006 1:21am | Edited 4:34pm
"It's been more then a year... So can you make a bilan???"

- GreatYves

One year....what are you talking about?

"Do you base your forecast over Demark support and resistance/Mouteki method?"

No, not that I know of. But if you know what those things are, then you can compare them to my hundreds of predictions, and answer that question yourself. I have addressed that question dozens of times, and consistently said that I employ my personal method of Elliott Wave analysis, plus another proprietary system that I developed. Also, I have repeated over and over that my method is constantly changing and evolving.

"So what is the ratio of good/bad signal so far did you made some statistic? "

No, there are no statistics, as I have repeated many times. All of my signals are experiments, undertaken solely for the purpose of gaining knowledge and accruing data towards the development of a trading system. That trading system may not involve trying to enter trades at the endpoints of trends, but predicting the endpoints of trends will almost certainly play a role in the trading system.

One protocol which I developed based on my research, when back tested for one month on EUR/USD, earned an average of 100 pips per day - 7 days a week, with a stop size of 20 pips, but it is very, very difficult to implement this protocol. That is why I continue my research - because I am garnering knowledge and skill which I hope to one day apply to developing and implementing a successful trading program.
  • #2,072
  • Dec 3, 2006 1:24am Dec 3, 2006 1:24am
"is perfect success possible in a flawed world?"

- aicccia

As I have said many times, I am striving for perfection, but will consider 50% success rate to be my goal. That way, I can grow $1,000 to about $75 millions in about 2 months, with which I would be very pleased.

<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
  • #2,073
  • Dec 3, 2006 1:30am Dec 3, 2006 1:30am
Quoting itme
"is perfect success possible in a flawed world?"

- aicccia

As I have said many times, I am striving for perfection, but will consider 50% success rate to be my goal. That way, I can grow $1,000 to about $75 millions in about 2 months, with which I would be very pleased.

<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
but you realize that even if you could do that theoretically with your system, there would be factors out of your control such as brokers, banks, and governments that would keep you from doing it. Well maybe you could, if you start out with a very large broker, maybe GAIN capital would work, but I'm sure banks would have a problem. Of course I hope I'm wrong.
  • #2,074
  • Dec 3, 2006 1:40am Dec 3, 2006 1:40am
Are you saying this is a rigged game, like the casinos, which won't allow a person to cash in if they can, for instance, learn how to win at blackjack?

"but you realize that even if you could do that theoretically with your system, there would be factors out of your control such as brokers, banks, and governments that would keep you from doing it. Well maybe you could, if you start out with a very large broker, maybe GAIN capital would work, but I'm sure banks would have a problem. Of course I hope I'm wrong."

What have banks got to do with it? My broker simply has to fill my orders, not kick me out of my trades, and cut me a check at the end of two months. What part of this won't they co-operate with? And won't my bank cash the check or accept the wire transfer from my broker?

Have you personally had difficulties with brokers because you made too much money in the forex market? I understand there is currently about $550 trillion in this market. Is someone going to have trouble with me winning $75 million?

Your signature implies that 5% of forex traders are winners. Why do you believe that? How do you define "winner"? Is earning millions of dollars through trading not possible? If what you seem to be saying above about the banks and brokers frustrating success is true, then nobody can become a real "winner", or at least there is a built-in ceiling as to how much a "winner" will be allow to "win".
  • #2,075
  • Dec 3, 2006 7:21am Dec 3, 2006 7:21am
I am sorry ITME, I was to tired to read the date properly (may 2006 is 7 month now), and too louzy to read the whole thread. Too louzy/buzy again to analyse your forecast/results. Sorry again. I will just keep following your "experiment" silently... Good trading.

Quoting itme
"It's been more then a year... So can you make a bilan???"

- GreatYves

One year....what are you talking about?

"Do you base your forecast over Demark support and resistance/Mouteki method?"

No, not that I know of. But if you know what those things are, then you can compare them to my hundreds of predictions, and answer that question yourself. I have addressed that question dozens of times, and consistently said that I employ my personal method of Elliott Wave analysis, plus another proprietary system that I developed. Also, I have repeated over and over that my method is constantly changing and evolving.

"So what is the ratio of good/bad signal so far did you made some statistic? "

No, there are no statistics, as I have repeated many times. All of my signals are experiments, undertaken solely for the purpose of gaining knowledge and accruing data towards the development of a trading system. That trading system may not involve trying to enter trades at the endpoints of trends, but predicting the endpoints of trends will almost certainly play a role in the trading system.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #2,076
  • Dec 3, 2006 9:50am Dec 3, 2006 9:50am
Quoting itme
As I have said many times, I am striving for perfection, but will consider 50% success rate to be my goal. That way, I can grow $1,000 to about $75 millions in about 2 months, with which I would be very pleased.
I am wondering how you came up with those estimates? Your goal low risk hogh rewards trades but how many trades do you have to enter in order to achieve your 75 million objective in 2 month? Would be currious to hear your mm.

Quoting itme
I have addressed that question dozens of times, and consistently said that I employ my personal method of Elliott Wave analysis, plus another proprietary system that I developed. Also, I have repeated over and over that my method is constantly changing and evolving.
That is excelent. But since you are not reveling any technical aspects of your system how others would benefit from your system? Can they learn it or they have to use a black box approach and rely on you?

Respectfully
Lenny
  • #2,077
  • Dec 3, 2006 2:55pm Dec 3, 2006 2:55pm
Quoting itme
"is perfect success possible in a flawed world?"

- aicccia

As I have said many times, I am striving for perfection, but will consider 50% success rate to be my goal. That way, I can grow $1,000 to about $75 millions in about 2 months, with which I would be very pleased.

<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
According to Sigmund Freud, the definition of insanity is continuing to do the same thing and expecting different results. Why would a trend fighting system that tries to pick highs and lows all of a sudden produce the above results?
  • #2,078
  • Dec 3, 2006 3:41pm Dec 3, 2006 3:41pm
Quoting itme
Are you saying this is a rigged game, like the casinos, which won't allow a person to cash in if they can, for instance, learn how to win at blackjack?

"but you realize that even if you could do that theoretically with your system, there would be factors out of your control such as brokers, banks, and governments that would keep you from doing it. Well maybe you could, if you start out with a very large broker, maybe GAIN capital would work, but I'm sure banks would have a problem. Of course I hope I'm wrong."

What have banks got to do with it? My broker simply has to fill my orders, not kick me out of my trades, and cut me a check at the end of two months. What part of this won't they co-operate with? And won't my bank cash the check or accept the wire transfer from my broker?

Have you personally had difficulties with brokers because you made too much money in the forex market? I understand there is currently about $550 trillion in this market. Is someone going to have trouble with me winning $75 million?

Your signature implies that 5% of forex traders are winners. Why do you believe that? How do you define "winner"? Is earning millions of dollars through trading not possible? If what you seem to be saying above about the banks and brokers frustrating success is true, then nobody can become a real "winner", or at least there is a built-in ceiling as to how much a "winner" will be allow to "win".
To a certain extent, yes the game is rigged. But not necessarily consciously. Put yourself in the position of the top CEO's of mega corporations, heads of major banks and governments. In today's world, a 30%+ return on accounts of 500 million and up every year is the most the best skilled money managers can produce in a year. Anything significantly higher is going to bring the prying eyes of big brother, for two reasons.

First, the reason they'll publicly use. Anything higher than 30%+ a year is simply impossible and so w/e you're doing most be illegal or cheating in some way. I don't know where you live Itme, but in the US, You just have to be doing some overtly suspicious financial activity and the SEC raids your residences with a SWAT team, freezes all your accounts and seizes all of your computers and records, before they ever charge you. And making over 100% a year with hundreds of millions of dollars is definitely overtly suspicious. Just ask the average joe on the street if they think its possible to make that kind of money every year and they'll repeat back, "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is." You won't have a hard time making 75 million in the market, but the fact that you'll be making 75 million over and over again, from practically nothing, will make it impossible for you not to escape big brother. Banks will ask where you're getting all this money too. I doubt they'll be any less suspicious than the government. Especially since it's their reputation they're risking when they take your money.

The second reason that they'll never mention is the ugliest. The leaders of the world enjoy being in charge and as money is power, lots of money very quickly is tremendous power. You'll be a threat to them, especially since you'll be accumulating your wealth in a way they don't understand. And since you're a threat, they'll do everything to attack you, smear your reputation, and constantly monitor you waiting for you to make a legal slip.

Those are the two reasons why big brother and banks will be hampering you, it's simply very suspicious, and it's a threat to their power.

I haven't had problems with forex, but I have had other problems with investing of other kinds. I was in one investing opportunity where a rich individual would collect money from several hundred people and then he'd use it to buy small businesses, and turn them into much larger businesses and then sell them and give us back some of the profit. He was doing well(and so were we)turning businesses around till they worth several hundred million, and he was on the verge of buying a small theme park in the new england area when the SEC caught wind of the returns the hundreds of us were receiving. They raided his home, his office and freezed all his accounts, and ...that’s all. He was never charged with anything, the judge in the court it was taken to admitted he couldn't find anything wrong with the enterprise....the SEC even called each one of the hundreds of investors hoping for a small complaint but they didn't get a single one. And despite all of this, the SEC never allowed his investing business to resume. Anyway, that's my expirence with big brother.

As for the specifics, most regular brokers can't handle 75 million dollars. You'll need to be trading through the currency trading services of a bank. What I've been wondering about is if you'll just an average guy one tax year, and then the next tax year you're worth 200,300,400 million, does the IRS notice? They probably do, and as that's very suspicious, I'm kind of worried about what problems they might make for me, even though it's perfectly legit. Something scary I discovered is the little known fact that tax court is THE ONLY COURT IN THE US WHERE THE DEFENDENT IS GUILY UNTILL PROVEN INNOCENT.


So what is the solution? I'm not entirely sure. Get rid of your US citizenship and move to out of the country? I believe if you keep money in a offshore bank account, its only taxable if you bring it into the US, such as using some to buy a car or house, but I'm not sure about that either. When my forex trading starts working out I'm going to have to take the next few years very carefully.

And I call a winner in forex someone who is able to consistantly, comfortably achieve whatever personal financial goals they've set. If these goals are extremely high, then yes, they could have some major problems.
  • #2,079
  • Edited 8:54pm Dec 3, 2006 3:48pm | Edited 8:54pm

Hi Sigmund,



Another definition of insanity is refusing to accept something to be true, in the face of overwhelming evidence.



I have stated since the very beginning of this thread, and repeated hundreds of times since, that the market predictions that I am performing here do not constitute a trading system, though as a trading system they may in fact perform admirably. (According to my spread sheet analysis, the first 39 predictions (which I generated in a 5 day period with very little sleep, which include about 30% total nonsense signals ; the report is here: http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ice#post57091), with the maximum possible risk factor, would have produced a 15,000 times multiplication of capital, if they had been traded in sequence.) These "trade signals" are experiments to discover market behavior, from which I am gleaning information and insight which I am employing in the development of a trading system.


__________________________________________________



Introduction to the Scientific Method



The scientific method is the process by which scientists, collectively and over time, endeavor to construct an accurate (that is, reliable, consistent and non-arbitrary) representation of the world.



Recognizing that personal and cultural beliefs influence both our perceptions and our interpretations of natural phenomena, we aim through the use of standard procedures and criteria to minimize those influences when developing a theory. As a famous scientist once said, "Smart people (like smart lawyers) can come up with very good explanations for mistaken points of view." In summary, the scientific method attempts to minimize the influence of bias or prejudice in the experimenter when testing an hypothesis or a theory.


I. The scientific method has four steps



1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena.


2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation.


3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations.


4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments.



If the experiments bear out the hypothesis it may come to be regarded as a theory or law of nature (more on the concepts of hypothesis, model, theory and law below). If the experiments do not bear out the hypothesis, it must be rejected or modified. What is key in the description of the scientific method just given is the predictive power (the ability to get more out of the theory than you put in; see Barrow, 1991) of the hypothesis or theory, as tested by experiment. It is often said in science that theories can never be proved, only disproved. There is always the possibility that a new observation or a new experiment will conflict with a long-standing theory.



II. Testing hypotheses



As just stated, experimental tests may lead either to the confirmation of the hypothesis, or to the ruling out of the hypothesis. The scientific method requires that an hypothesis be ruled out or modified if its predictions are clearly and repeatedly incompatible with experimental tests. Further, no matter how elegant a theory is, its predictions must agree with experimental results if we are to believe that it is a valid description of nature. In physics, as in every experimental science, "experiment is supreme" and experimental verification of hypothetical predictions is absolutely necessary. Experiments may test the theory directly (for example, the observation of a new particle) or may test for consequences derived from the theory using mathematics and logic (the rate of a radioactive decay process requiring the existence of the new particle). Note that the necessity of experiment also implies that a theory must be testable. Theories which cannot be tested, because, for instance, they have no observable ramifications (such as, a particle whose characteristics make it unobservable), do not qualify as scientific theories.



If the predictions of a long-standing theory are found to be in disagreement with new experimental results, the theory may be discarded as a description of reality, but it may continue to be applicable within a limited range of measurable parameters.



http://teacher.pas.rochester.edu/phy...AppendixE.html

  • #2,080
  • Edited 8:56pm Dec 3, 2006 4:03pm | Edited 8:56pm
Thanks, Aicccia, for a good answer. I have studied and reflected on these matters for many years, and have developed strategies to avoid the problems you described. I have stated on this and other threads that I have personal knowledge of some of the problems you mention, but there are obvious solutions that have been consistently employed by intelligent people for centuries to avoid the problems you describe. When the money is available, it should be invested in expert advise and consultancy services to manage the financial and legal aspects in a lawful and professional way according to standard financial investment practises of wealthy investors.
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