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C-Trader 4% a month for 3 months - results live

  • #81
  • Jul 26, 2007 2:13pm Jul 26, 2007 2:13pm
Hey Chart Guy,

How's your system doing today?
  • #82
  • Jul 26, 2007 5:07pm Jul 26, 2007 5:07pm
Quoting zek132
Hey Chart Guy,

How's your system doing today?
Better than one would think. I stated on the other board this week that folks should go into safe mode. If that is the case, they are down about 2.5%. I am not with the demo as I want to stress test it. It is down about 4.5% without using the safe mode...... which obviously one should be in as of yesterday. So down only 2.5% in the face of 700 pips of unwind (almost as much as February) is not bad at all in my opinion. There may be a lot more to go obviously, which is why de-leveraging and safe mode are so important. Hopefully the guys who were geared up on the leverage or wanting to can now understand why it's still risky shooting for 1% a week. Demo account at this moment not using safe mode is still up 13 in under 4 months. Would be up 16% in safe mode.

Still hanging strong though. I got word a lady who was raising money to trade Freedom Rocks at One World (The Captain's Fund) had raised about $5-$10 million. she got whacked with a 30% drawdown today and is closing shop after being up and running only a few months.

Oops!
  • #83
  • Jul 26, 2007 5:12pm Jul 26, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting bhale
I broke it down to find out where you are long and short. Here is the results. I think it may be too heavy long USD and short CHF.

Long Short
EUR 2 3
USD 5 1
AUD 2 1
GBP 2 1
CHF 0 4
JPY 1 2
CAD 0 1
NZD 1 0

If you eliminate the USDCAD and NZDUSD, you are then long USD 4 lots and short 0.

I'm not criticizing the basket, just trying to make sense of it. It should probably be adjusted when interest rates and swap amounts change, but those changes are like a cruise ship truning around, takes a while.
I agree there are many different baskets one could implore. You can go more for swap or more for safety. with hundreds of potential pairs, any basket could be created. I am testing 3 different ones. So far this one I show publicly is the middle one of the three in regards to risk/reward.
  • #84
  • Jul 27, 2007 1:38am Jul 27, 2007 1:38am
and so far it seems to be geting it's ass kicked
good thing there is a safe mode....
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #85
  • Jul 27, 2007 1:40am Jul 27, 2007 1:40am
Quoting chartguy
I got word a lady who was raising money to trade Freedom Rocks at One World (The Captain's Fund) had raised about $5-$10 million. she got whacked with a 30% drawdown today and is closing shop after being up and running only a few months.

Oops!

Damn ...I hate it when that happens
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #86
  • Jul 27, 2007 2:36am Jul 27, 2007 2:36am
Quoting johnedoe
and so far it seems to be geting it's ass kicked
good thing there is a safe mode....
Yeah safe mode is down about 2.5-3% as of this writing. My demo which I am stress testing is down 8% without using safe mode. It is just buying each 1% per unit drop.

All things considered, we have a yen unwind of 600-900 pips, and it's only down 3%? I wouldn't call that a butt whoopin just yet.
  • #87
  • Jul 27, 2007 4:42am Jul 27, 2007 4:42am
Chartguy,
Woke up this morning during early European trading caught the basket dropping 1000 added safety lot of .02, 2hours later basket back up to 100000 closed previous which in 2 hours put $500 into balance. Guess it was a lucky catch but great system so far. Thanks again!!!
  • #88
  • Jul 27, 2007 6:24am Jul 27, 2007 6:24am
So who's started working on the EA?
Any idiot can take profit, real traders know how to take losses!
  • #89
  • Jul 27, 2007 10:03am Jul 27, 2007 10:03am
Quoting johnedoe
and so far it seems to be geting it's ass kicked
good thing there is a safe mode....
Yeah, I'm down a whopping 4.2%, can hardly stand the pressure!

Especially since this current situation is just about the worst of the worst. Or maybe more bad is coming up ahead with further unwinding. Oh no, I might sink to an unbearable "ass kicking" drawdown of, maybe, 8%?

Let's get a grip here, and put it in perspective, shall we?
  • #90
  • Jul 27, 2007 12:09pm Jul 27, 2007 12:09pm
I think it is important to note that if the carry trade continues to unwind, all "carry trade" systems will continue to produce compounded losses. While having said that it will be interesting to see if the "carry" moves to other pairs. If interest rate inbalances begin to move closer to parity than further apart, then the "carry trade" would have to continue to unwind for an extended period of time before producing new "carry" opportunities. I guess what I am saying is that this system is as good as I have ever seen for trading the carry trade, but when the carry quits working, this system will quit working. It will be interesting to see what happens.


Pemby
  • #91
  • Jul 27, 2007 12:16pm Jul 27, 2007 12:16pm
I do believe that all systems "quit working" after awhile and suffer drawdown. It is just a question of how much drawdown can we handle before the system begins working again.

Quoting bigpemby
I think it is important to note that if the carry trade continues to unwind, all "carry trade" systems will continue to produce compounded losses. While having said that it will be interesting to see if the "carry" moves to other pairs. If interest rate inbalances begin to move closer to parity than further apart, then the "carry trade" would have to continue to unwind for an extended period of time before producing new "carry" opportunities. I guess what I am saying is that this system is as good as I have ever seen for trading the carry trade, but when the carry quits working, this system will quit working. It will be interesting to see what happens.


Pemby
  • #92
  • Jul 28, 2007 9:26am Jul 28, 2007 9:26am
Quoting Dreamliner
I do believe that all systems "quit working" after awhile and suffer drawdown. It is just a question of how much drawdown can we handle before the system begins working again.
Agree Dreamliner. The carry trade will never quit working forever. It will change for sure as interest rates change. The key is money management and risk tolerance. In safe mode the core position is still only down 3-5%. YEs we may only be in the first inning of the game, but the concept of this method and the betting style can work many ways. I am currently testing a basket of currencies, grains, gold, oil etc. Buy a basket of uncorrelated markets and treat them all as one trade as well.

But as I stated in the rules of the system, the Carry trade will blow up and it is starting to now. This method gives one the best chance of staying in the game long enough to keep playing as long as financial disaster is not upon us. IMO - it just may be
  • #93
  • Jul 28, 2007 10:32am Jul 28, 2007 10:32am
chartguy, what do you mean by financial disaster? If I get time, I would like to research past interest rates of the major currencies to find a time when they were all within a point or two from each other. This would mean lower swap rates, but I wonder how your system would work under these circumstances. It seems that it might be more stable.
  • #94
  • Jul 28, 2007 10:36am Jul 28, 2007 10:36am
Not meaning to answer for Chartguy, but I would imagine that he means the unwinding of the carry trade, plus the worst week in the US stock market in a long time. These two are a powerful combination, and may indicate further unwinding and further stock plummeting, possibly indicating we are on the verge of International financial disaster.

Or the carry trade could resume and the stocks go up . Such is life as a trader.
  • #95
  • Jul 28, 2007 11:04am Jul 28, 2007 11:04am
Well I have a sizable short trade in GBPUSD that I've had to weather the whole month of July. I need it to get to 2.0000 so I can get out. I sure hope that happens next week. I also trade a dollar hedge (buy GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY) that has been working like a champ till this carry trade meltdown. SO I have 3 down and 1 up instead of the usual 2 down 2 up. I'm not sure how to get out of this one. Maybe wait till I see a bottom or change in the 4HR USDJPY and double up on that one. Then all four should equal out. It makes about $16 a day on 1 standard lot swaps.
  • #96
  • Jul 29, 2007 8:20pm Jul 29, 2007 8:20pm
Chartguy,

Are you running the demo account in safe mode? The demo account looks like it is drawn down around 15% from its equity high right now. Is that accurate?
  • #97
  • Jul 30, 2007 6:31pm Jul 30, 2007 6:31pm
Quoting bigpemby
Chartguy,

Are you running the demo account in safe mode? The demo account looks like it is drawn down around 15% from its equity high right now. Is that accurate?
Correct on the -15%. The demo is NOT in safe mode. I want to run it normal to stress test it. We don't get many opportunities to stress test the method in carry trade unwind. Unwinds are few and far between, but violent. Over at Forex-TSD i stated before the unwind by about 2 days that normal accounts should be in safe mode as the carry was about to unwind, but that my demo would not go into safe mode. Safe mode accounts would be down from 3-5% during this mess..... not too bad imo.
  • #98
  • Jul 31, 2007 3:12pm Jul 31, 2007 3:12pm
Hi ppl,

I'm using this system last 3 weeks and i'm only 6% DD and recovering very well.

Rodrigo
  • #99
  • Aug 1, 2007 4:11pm Aug 1, 2007 4:11pm
Well that was crazy! The stress test survived barely and now just made new highs. This test affirms the need for lower leverage and the safe mode. I saw the account equity drop to $66k or $52k during the unwind and not using the safe mode. Safe mode may have saw 1 add and maybe 10% drop, I haven't figured it out yet. You can see though that it popped back nicely and is at new equity highs!
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc C-Trader.doc   103 KB | 347 downloads
  • #100
  • Aug 1, 2007 6:28pm Aug 1, 2007 6:28pm
Wow! That is impressive. I wished this could be done with 10K or 20K acct and mini lots
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