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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #241
  • Mar 30, 2025 1:33am Mar 30, 2025 1:33am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} {quote} Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1810328390915784984 https://x.com/nntaleb/status/992769230855602176
Quote
FIRST FALLACY—“THESE GUYS KNOW SOMETHING” In 2000 the Wall Street Journal survey of economists revealed that 96 percent of them were bullish. In 2001 the same surveys of economists showed an amazing 99 percent were bullish on the economy. In 2002, the same survey was conducted again, and by now 100 percent of the economists surveyed were bullish. The Wall Street Journal has been doing this survey thing since 1982, and the track record shows the experts have been correct in predicting the future less than 22 percent of the time. This is a worse probability...
I came across this in one of Larry Williams books I remembered the reverse indicators comment right away!
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #242
  • Edited 7:56am Mar 30, 2025 4:35am | Edited 7:56am
Quoting profits7
{quote} __________ Trima kassi Banjak for ur Reply = You stayedUp All NITE or that was ur shift #23 ist my Nepfew = just kiddin
No, it's fine. I rest. I sleep when I'm sleepy and eat when I'm hungry. We are the people who are commanded to test ourselves every year, just a month against the stressors of hunger, anger, discipline, and all undesirable desires once a year. So, on the last day, sometimes our sleep schedule no longer aligns with the body's normal circadian rhythm.
fooled by randomness in art
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  • #243
  • Edited 6:12am Mar 30, 2025 4:37am | Edited 6:12am
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} That is interesting info. Also that is a joke, I do not take psychology seriously and certainly do not have a psychologist.
They have another talent as recruiters for private or government companies. However, their work is usually not as good as law graduates, but some are quite professional and kind-hearted. But when they blacklist you based on an assessment that is 99% nonsense, be prepared to be blacklisted in many similar places (environment). However, in a different environment, you will be just fine or superb with your performance. So many nonsense, randomness.

The new generation now rejects the Floating Market in the Financial World, seeing it as gambling or a casino. In reality, it is a hybrid discipline, a mix of economics and mathematics, with fundamental miscalculations at its core. As a result, it often becomes inaccurate. They have never heard of the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model or the Continuously Random Auction Market or Ergodicity Economics, or what Behavioural Economics is. I think that by gradually tell them something science, they will understand what kind of industry this is.

(00:15:20) - Nassim's 30-minute take on the field of behavioural economics.
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  • #244
  • Mar 30, 2025 4:53am Mar 30, 2025 4:53am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Lel Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1738233919714066496
#dailytips

Quote
Never call someone an imbecile (or fucking idiot) unless he causes harm to others/system; there must be a moral dimension to insults.

- Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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  • #245
  • Edited 7:42am Mar 30, 2025 7:25am | Edited 7:42am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Antifragility vs Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) Antifragility is a unifying mathematical modeling framework transferring properties from the functional domain of dose-response into the probabilistic one in distribution of outcomes, and vice-versa. Consider the following seemingly disconnected or loosely connected classes of natural and human phenomena: Class 1 Upregulation: Effects related to benefiting from stressors. These include hormesis and hypertrophy in medicine, post-traumatic growth in psychology, tumor resistance in oncology, hydra-like...
+Antifragility is a LOCAL property directly linked to convexity, in a RANGE which may or may not include infinities.
+ There is an absence of symmetry between fragile & antifragile

https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1906316294472737098

DeepSeek said:

1. Local vs. Global Properties

  1. Local: The system’s antifragility manifests only within a defined range of stressors. Outside this range, the behavior may reverse (e.g., becoming fragile or collapsing).
    Example:

    1. Muscles grow stronger under moderate exercise (convex response, local antifragility).
    2. But they tear under extreme strain (beyond the local range, becoming fragile).

  2. Global: A property that holds universally, regardless of conditions. Antifragility is not global—no system benefits from all levels of stress.

2. Why "Local" Matters

  1. Range-Specific Design: Systems are antifragile only to stressors they’re calibrated to handle.
    Example:

    1. A startup thrives on market volatility (local antifragility to small shocks) but collapses in a financial crash (outside its range).

  2. Nonlinearity: Responses to stress are nonlinear. Small stressors may trigger growth, while large ones cause breakdowns.
  3. Practical Boundaries: Real-world systems have physical, economic, or operational limits (e.g., a bridge withstands storms but collapses in a tsunami).

3. Mathematical Connection to Convexity

  1. A function f(x)f(x) is convex in a local range if, for stressors xx in that range: f(stress)≥baseline+gains proportional to stress.f(stress)≥baseline+gains proportional to stress.
  2. This convexity vanishes outside the range (e.g., muscles shift from growth to damage).
  3. Jensen’s Inequality: Antifragility exploits E[f(X)]≥f(E[X])E[f(X)]≥f(E[X]), but only if XX stays within the convexity’s domain.

4. Key Implications of "Local"

  1. No Infinite Antifragility: No system is antifragile to all stressors. Even evolution (often cited as antifragile) fails against existential risks like asteroid impacts.
  2. Barbell Strategies: Hedge against extreme downside (fragility) while exploiting upside (antifragility) in the local range.
  3. Misplaced Confidence: Assuming antifragility is global leads to catastrophic failure (e.g., overleveraging in finance).

5. Contrast with Fragility

  1. Fragility is often globally concave (harm accelerates with stress, e.g., glass shatters at any significant impact).
  2. Asymmetry: Fragility is more easily generalized (harm scales with stress), while antifragility is fragile to misdefined ranges.

Summary:
"Local" means antifragility is conditional—a system thrives only in the Goldilocks zone of stressors it’s designed for. Beyond that, it breaks down, reflecting the asymmetry between fragility (universal downside) and antifragility (bounded upside). This underscores the importance of understanding a system’s stressor range to avoid mistaking local robustness for universal resilience.

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  • #246
  • Edited 8:07am Mar 30, 2025 7:37am | Edited 8:07am
Happy Eid Al-Fitr Mubarak for 2025

I sincerely apologize for any mistakes, both physically and emotionally

Note:
This pic taken from: https://x.com/InstantFunding_/status...14786842751427
No intention to promote anything.
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  • #247
  • Mar 30, 2025 9:35am Mar 30, 2025 9:35am
______________ @RoelsMayor =
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Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #248
  • Edited 10:50am Mar 30, 2025 9:55am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting profits7
______________ @RoelsMayor = {image}
I think rather than fighting that psychopathic cartel head-on and constantly debating, you and many honest traders would be better off creating a separate thread. The criteria should be that only live MT4 or MT5 accounts are allowed to post charts, and only trade charts, or if demo accounts are allowed, they must be shown with MT4 or MT5 charts (whether it's a prop firm demo, which has skin in the game, or a recently demo from the strategy tester).

This could help everyone gather better trading statistics for your future. Sometimes, it's better to just ignore those who lack reason and logic—at least for now—until they (maybe) change. Lol Those who do not meet the criteria above should just stay on the sidelines with small comments for now.

Yes, some say that MT4 and MT5 performance can be manipulated, but it is unlikely if Trade Explorer (TE) and Myfxbook, for example, stay every day in real-time and the broker used is reputable.

There are only a few lessons left to learn in the FX world besides (for me):
1. A proven trading track record.
2. A system with a proven track record.
3. Honesty.

That's it.
fooled by randomness in art
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  • #249
  • Mar 30, 2025 11:09am Mar 30, 2025 11:09am
___________ yes , I may continnue Here = need ppl to WIN and share sume $$$ with da RedCross

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ading?page=791
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #250
  • Edited Mar 31, 2025 8:40am Mar 30, 2025 11:30am | Edited Mar 31, 2025 8:40am
Quoting profits7
___________ yes , I may continnue Here = need ppl to WIN and share sume $$$ with da RedCross https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ading?page=791
Good, you have found your ideal place and are in a profitable phase. Wishing you continued success and smooth progress with your humanitarian project. I will join from time to time once I start trading live again—it's been a while, as I've only been doing prop firm demos and demo accounts.

One more from me, the last one—I think that thread doesn't bring much change either, unless all traders are required to have a TE FF or Myfxbook Explorer below their posts, with all data fully open and readable. That's just my opinion, and we already did it in 2016 (so I have the right to speak and have skin in the game).
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  • #251
  • Mar 30, 2025 3:07pm Mar 30, 2025 3:07pm
Alright, Blueberry Markets opens at 5:00 Morning (local time), while data from Netdania is already available 30 minutes before 4:00 Morning (local time), meaning there is a gap of 1 hour and 30 minutes until this broker opens.

https://www.netdania.com/quotes/forex-majors
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  • #252
  • Edited 4:36pm Mar 30, 2025 4:17pm | Edited 4:36pm
aDtr Today
31/03/2025
14 Pairs

Broker Open: 05.00 morning Local (Zone Beijing, GMT +8)
Wait after London Open: after 15.00 afternoon Local

USDCAD seems interesting for a Short after the London Open if the Dragon becomes concave wave over time.

Pic 3: Netdania Interbank Chart M15
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  • #253
  • Edited 7:16pm Mar 30, 2025 7:05pm | Edited 7:16pm
Quote
You are a soldier only if you have been in battle; you are a trader only if you have lost money ... and you are an author only if you have been plagiarized.

Bed of Procrustes
NN Taleb

Quote
A trader is someone who knows how to lose money without getting used to it.

#BedofProcrustes 3rd Ed
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  • #254
  • Edited 7:33am Mar 31, 2025 7:02am | Edited 7:33am
Quoting RoelsMajor
aDtr Today 31/03/2025 14 Pairs Broker Open: 05.00 morning Local (Zone Beijing, GMT +8) Wait after London Open: after 15.00 afternoon Local USDCAD seems interesting for a Short after the London Open if the Dragon becomes concave wave over time. Pic 3: Netdania Interbank Chart M15 {image} {image} {image}
There were many classic good signals after London Open (LO), but I missed taking them today due to the Holiday celebration. USDCAD became Convex over time. GBP-EUR/NZD as well, and also GBP-EUR/AUD. However, the average range was still only 2/3 of the aDTR alias Narrow Range. EURUSD and GBPUSD were not among the chosen pairs today, so just watching them. However, they seemed to become Concave over time. Tried testing 1 unit position 0.5% in EURUSD, Short.
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  • #255
  • Edited 8:03am Mar 31, 2025 7:19am | Edited 8:03am
And one more 1 unit 0.5% Long, USD/JPY, become Convex over time...

Chart where is Chart? and where is the Entry, SL or TP? Lel
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  • #256
  • Mar 31, 2025 7:42am Mar 31, 2025 7:42am
Quote
The most important war is not against fellow traders who sometimes spread misinformation, made many mistakes or have opposing viewpoints. Also towards some who are not traders, who sometimes cause harm to others. But The most important war is against luck and misfortune. Lol

— Anonopoulos and Mark Spitznagel
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  • #257
  • Edited 9:22am Mar 31, 2025 9:02am | Edited 9:22am
Throughout my experience in the local stock market, long-term investing doesn’t necessarily generate substantial profits, may be big loss. Timing is everything and Luck. Warren Buffett waited a very long time until the boom market phase from the 1960s to the 1980s to amass billions of dollars, but after that period, the market frequently crashed. Dividend investing, meanwhile, isn’t popular in America or Europe due to extremely high taxes. In Asia, however, it might serve as a portfolio lifesaver, as companies with consistently growing retained earnings each quarter automatically distribute their profits, sometimes up to 2 or 3 times a year, and the taxes are not as high as in America or Europe.

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  • #258
  • Edited 1:36pm Mar 31, 2025 9:47am | Edited 1:36pm
And the results after, modest gain or modest loss?
And how much percentages?

2 units @0.5% gain (+)
Ready to roar again. Lel

Simple!
And abandoning the classic methods that have been long studied and 'often successful' (with all their rules) might be the cause of many failures, don't you think so?https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15195924
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  • #259
  • Mar 31, 2025 1:22pm Mar 31, 2025 1:22pm
So let's take a look at the key rules of the 2 gaming prop firms that offer the cheapest price for the $25K Fx challenge this month @ https://propfirmmatch.com/prop-firm-rules?page=1 Seem more simple dan many rules have been cut.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #260
  • Mar 31, 2025 1:42pm Mar 31, 2025 1:42pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Throughout my experience in the local stock market, long-term investing doesn’t necessarily generate substantial profits, may be big loss. Timing is everything and Luck. Warren Buffett waited a very long time until the boom market phase from the 1960s to the 1980s to amass billions of dollars, but after that period, the market frequently crashed. Dividend investing, meanwhile, isn’t popular in America or Europe due to extremely high taxes. In Asia, however, it might serve as a portfolio lifesaver, as companies with consistently growing retained...

About to start looking for my passport
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
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