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The Swamp

  • #122,021
  • Mar 30, 2025 8:49pm Mar 30, 2025 8:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If it cant hold 43.. it may fall back to 825.. I think it will end up in the 867/92 area I dont know if it will retrace. I have to ride it out. 65 pips from low or adr When it manages to get to that 867/92 area. It may be drawn back to 825 once again for a ride down. and probably a later ride back up {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,022
  • Mar 30, 2025 11:32pm Mar 30, 2025 11:32pm
looking for something in the blue box to drop, it make a entry to long. gbpnzd
It was in the box hours ago, it didnt give a exhaustion entry sign. So I may have missed it.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,023
  • Mar 31, 2025 3:58am Mar 31, 2025 3:58am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 4H below 780. Best-case scenario: we retest 780 once more, and then move down towards at least 740.
Good morning.
I haven’t done much since Thursday. On Friday, I stayed short, and I was also short today at 850, and I don’t think I’ll close it.

810 is good for hedging or, for those going long, it’s a good long entry in my opinion, at least up to 850 maybe higher.

In my opinion, it will be hard to drop before the NFP because there’s fear that everything Trump is doing is a mess and might lead the economy into a recession.
I personally think what he’s doing is very interesting for the U.S., but I’m not convinced he’ll succeed, he’s fighting with too many people at once.
Anyway, it’s going to be a very tough week. For those using high leverage, they should urgently reduce any position. I’m expecting some extreme and totally illogical moves this week. A lot of what Trump might announce tomorrow or even a weak NFP is already priced in.
But that’s just my opinion, not investment advice. Good luck.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,024
  • Mar 31, 2025 4:55am Mar 31, 2025 4:55am
Possible interesting bounce points : EU 1.08
GU 1.29
  • #122,025
  • Mar 31, 2025 5:12am Mar 31, 2025 5:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If it cant hold 43.. it may fall back to 825.. I think it will end up in the 867/92 area I dont know if it will retrace. I have to ride it out. 65 pips from low or adr When it manages to get to that 867/92 area. It may be drawn back to 825 once again for a ride down. and probably a later ride back up {image}
no stirring, range. Back to 807 area
If it starts closing below 807. That could turn bearish But Friday lead to believe rise. A bounce to rise needs to close above 843.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,026
  • Mar 31, 2025 5:14am Mar 31, 2025 5:14am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Good morning. I haven’t done much since Thursday. On Friday, I stayed short, and I was also short today at 850, and I don’t think I’ll close it. 810 is good for hedging or, for those going long, it’s a good long entry in my opinion, at least up to 850 maybe higher. In my opinion, it will be hard to drop before the NFP because there’s fear that everything Trump is doing is a mess and might lead the economy into a recession. I personally think what he’s doing is very interesting for the U.S., but I’m not convinced he’ll succeed, he’s fighting...
In order to drop, we’d have to stay below 800. There are many buying here because the futures are going down.
We’ll see, but in my opinion, things have changed.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,027
  • Mar 31, 2025 5:18am Mar 31, 2025 5:18am
Quoting gatorinla
looking for something in the blue box to drop, it make a entry to long. gbpnzd It was in the box hours ago, it didnt give a exhaustion entry sign. So I may have missed it. {image}
No sign Its in the location
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,028
  • Mar 31, 2025 5:24am Mar 31, 2025 5:24am
The market rages more than it trends.
Ranging is 2 to 1 over trending roughly
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,029
  • Mar 31, 2025 6:32am Mar 31, 2025 6:32am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} In order to drop, we’d have to stay below 800. There are many buying here because the futures are going down. We’ll see, but in my opinion, things have changed.
Those tariffs cant help equities. Besides foreigners pulling money from equites (repatriation). Some Americans are taking that money and buying in Europe's equities. Selling usd, and buying euros to do it
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,030
  • Mar 31, 2025 6:41am Mar 31, 2025 6:41am
Quoting gatorinla
The gbp has dropped the usual adr as it consolidated (only 83 adr). Its do for a b/o move. It could go either way. Monday may be a good day to take -1.2777 since its ending the quarter. That could start down pressure on a longer term move. or a test of 1.2550. I actually see it bullish. on a day scale. Bearish in this larger area its already in. Wk month wise. Its close enough to hit that 1.27xx area. St if may hit 1.2958/72 and slam down. It's been sideways for a while Its been bullish R/R may give a small risk comparable to reward. It can b/o...
It did go to the R area and fell. But no break down.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,031
  • Mar 31, 2025 7:57am Mar 31, 2025 7:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Those tariffs cant help equities. Besides foreigners pulling money from equites (repatriation). Some Americans are taking that money and buying in Europe's equities. Selling usd, and buying euros to do it
I believe things like this only hold in the short term.
There's no way you sell U.S. companies to buy some company from Europe.
Absolutely out of the question in my mind, maybe in the short term.
If the U.S. sneezes, then Europe ends up in the madhouse.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,032
  • Mar 31, 2025 9:31am Mar 31, 2025 9:31am
I'm reducing my short positions slightly on this drop ahead of ADP and NFP,
so I can short again at higher levels.
For me, it’s not yet time to go long.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,033
  • Mar 31, 2025 11:27am Mar 31, 2025 11:27am
Quoting LoneTrader1
Possible interesting bounce points : EU 1.08 GU 1.29
EU another possible scenario for bounce...
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  • #122,034
  • Mar 31, 2025 11:28am Mar 31, 2025 11:28am
From Grok. Last weeks Euro FX futures COT summary FWIW

"Euro FX COT 3/25/25: Non-Commercial net long jumps to 48k (+4.6k), cutting shorts. Commercial shorts surge to 538k, net -83k. OI up 5k after last week’s drop. Non-Reportable fades. Euro strength play or hedge wall? Thoughts?"

I'm leaning towards the Long side at this time
  • #122,035
  • Mar 31, 2025 12:52pm Mar 31, 2025 12:52pm
NFP is coming. Pa dont often fall before. It pumps more often. 825 might start some R action. Or support if above. Pa failed to take its 65 pips. That has some weakness in it. 825 acting as R may be a little more. Not making it back to 825 and closing below 802 its likely bearish to me. For the time being. a few failed test at 802 should help prove. I side with below because it didnt make its 65 pips. So if 825 and 802 start to support, bulls have a better shot. That inability to take 843 was weak
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,036
  • Mar 31, 2025 12:59pm Mar 31, 2025 12:59pm
Quoting DMA Trader
I'm reducing my short positions slightly on this drop ahead of ADP and NFP, so I can short again at higher levels. For me, it’s not yet time to go long.
I dont know about today. Cnbc indicated they were 2 wks back. The sample of traders I saw were doing that. They dont speak for everyone
Keep an eye of 802/25. This may be the fork in the road. Once closing under bulls may lose their ability to pass. If bulls loose that ability. The last place they were strong was above 1.0354
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,037
  • Mar 31, 2025 1:26pm Mar 31, 2025 1:26pm
Q closing today.. when below 802, and 783 can't hold/turn it. We could see 733/15. A day close below 802 is probably in that mold. 820 25 slapping it down may give a clue.. Above 825 q close is another beast for 871+.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,038
  • Mar 31, 2025 5:45pm Mar 31, 2025 5:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
Q closing today.. when below 802, and 783 can't hold/turn it. We could see 733/15. A day close below 802 is probably in that mold. 820 25 slapping it down may give a clue.. Above 825 q close is another beast for 871+. {image}
The bastard closed between the 2
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,039
  • Mar 31, 2025 9:57pm Mar 31, 2025 9:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont know about today. Cnbc indicated they were 2 wks back. The sample of traders I saw were doing that. They dont speak for everyone Keep an eye of 802/25. This may be the fork in the road. Once closing under bulls may lose their ability to pass. If bulls loose that ability. The last place they were strong was above 1.0354
The day closed above 802. Its pressing 825. It can be tough. 802 is probably a tougher support now the day closed above 802.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,040
  • Mar 31, 2025 10:35pm Mar 31, 2025 10:35pm
8025 may be breaking
The freaking 6h should have closed above 8025.. Its tough. i think 802 is harder. The least path of resistance looks up to me .. 930 looks like the first Quarter R to beat.
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