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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #221
  • Mar 29, 2025 10:20am Mar 29, 2025 10:20am
Antifragility vs Fragility
(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

Antifragility is a unifying mathematical modeling framework transferring properties from the functional domain of dose-response into the probabilistic one in distribution of outcomes, and vice-versa.

Consider the following seemingly disconnected or loosely connected classes of natural and human phenomena:

Class 1 Upregulation: Effects related to benefiting from stressors. These include hormesis and hypertrophy in medicine, post-traumatic growth in psychology, tumor resistance in oncology, hydra-like outcomes in mythology, as well as popular beliefs about rebounds from adversity.

Class 2 Philostochasticity: Effects related to benefiting from variance and dispersion. These include stochastic resonance in physics and signal processing, intermittent fasting and variable dosing in medicine, ”long” volatility in finance. Evolutionary processes require a certain dose of noise, variance, or replication error to satisfy a diversity of outcomes, with the hope that some of the resulting offspring will be more adapted to the environment.

Class 3 Scaling: Effects related to allometry. These include optimal size of animals, cities, and corporations, the fragility induced by an increase in size (stochastic diseconomies of scale), the behavior of biological entities at different scales.

Now note the property of items with opposite qualitative attributes (for antifragility is not the mirror opposite of fragility):

Class 4 Fragility: Effects related to breaking or rupturing under shocks and stressors at some intensity.

Class 5 Short volatility: harm by dispersion of outcomes and second order effects at some window or time interval. For example eating continuously might be
harmful, but intermittently can only benefit at some time window (while a daily or alternate day occurrence may help, a monthly one can be deadly).

Class 6 Effects linked to hazards associated with the passage of time: it includes decay from memoryless shocks, aging, ruin probabilities, and absorbing barriers.
Attached File(s)
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  • #222
  • Mar 29, 2025 10:36am Mar 29, 2025 10:36am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} No, you are simultaneously exhibiting both the Dunning-Kruger effect for somebody and you are the Anti-Dunning-Kruger effect in body. So the result is neutral.
I guess I beat the system
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #223
  • Edited 1:25pm Mar 29, 2025 10:46am | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} I guess I beat the system
That means you are taking a position that is not extreme, so you remain neutral. Being neutral is good within a certain range. However, if something becomes too extreme, the antidote position must sometimes be extreme as well.

Like the wisdom in the trading world, if there is no verified trading proof over a certain period, it is merely an illusion and hallucination—no matter how great or extensive the books, coaching industry, and wise words of psycho madness may be.

I have already presented many of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's thoughts to you, one of the GOAT traders on par with Jim Simons (his science team is very large) and Warren Buffett (a bit mellow and bit good psycho) —verified and authentic records, not just his books or training, and babbles.

And they ultimately agreed on one conclusion. They had extreme luck in the end.
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  • #224
  • Mar 29, 2025 11:41am Mar 29, 2025 11:41am
Quote
A word on my X lexicon. 1) When I reply "fucking idiot", it is because I suspect the person to be part of a (organized or spontaneous) group smear campaign. 2) "imbecile" means the person is a troll. 3) "I disagree but did you consider..." means the person is a genuine poster.

Lel

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1738233919714066496
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  • #225
  • Edited 1:07pm Mar 29, 2025 12:46pm | Edited 1:07pm
Quote
6/ Some misinterpretations of the idea. A- Studying the anatomy of economic life is important: national accounting, money creation, balance of payment, money flow, institutional finance, trade, etc. But that's NOT what academic economists do. They theorize, often with bad math. B- That someone like Warren Buffett, Elon Musk,... studied economics is a fake argument. that's not what they do in their function. I know plenty of gold traders who were dentists: you don't study dentistry to trade gold.

Quote
As a general rule, whenever your intuition conflicts with that of an economist, bet on your intuition. Economists are reverse indicators: they are ~always wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1810328390915784984
https://x.com/nntaleb/status/992769230855602176
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  • #226
  • Mar 29, 2025 1:24pm Mar 29, 2025 1:24pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} {quote} Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1810328390915784984 https://x.com/nntaleb/status/992769230855602176
Lol. Revers indicators is wild
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  • #227
  • Mar 29, 2025 1:29pm Mar 29, 2025 1:29pm
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} Lol. Revers indicators is wild
That is indeed the reality and truth in every country. Just like politicians and psychologists. None of their work is beneficial for humanity—well, except for a few who are very smart and actually do what they say. They practice, but it's no longer economics or politics or basic noobie psycho; it's science.
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  • #228
  • Mar 29, 2025 1:38pm Mar 29, 2025 1:38pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} That is indeed the reality and truth in every country. Just like politicians and psychologists. None of their work is beneficial for humanity—well, except for a few who are very smart and actually do what they say. They practice, but it's no longer economics or politics or basic noobie psycho; it's science.
You mean my Psychologist won't help with my mental/psychological problems?
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #229
  • Mar 29, 2025 1:45pm Mar 29, 2025 1:45pm
Quote
In the wisdom of trading, it is undeniably certain that when one wins big and sustains it over a long period, even their fart will be praised. But when they lose, especially heavily, they may fall silent or laugh nervously without reason. Yet nothing lasts forever—everything rises and falls in cycles. A rare few are blessed with immense luck, while the other 90% are plagued by extraordinary misfortune. Such is the random world, and randomness often reigns.

- Anonopoulos -
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  • #230
  • Edited 3:45pm Mar 29, 2025 1:50pm | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} You mean my Psychologist won't help with my mental/psychological problems?
They do not study science, except for clinical psychologists who are required to observe mentally ill patients in hospital wards for approximately one or two years to qualify them to educate others about mental health. We, as General Practitioners, were previously trained and required to spend six months in that ward because the credit system to graduate from that field was quite significant in the past. However, those with comprehensive knowledge and the authority to provide therapy are Psychiatrists, or Mental Health Specialists. They are trained in the fundamentals of biological science. Psychiatry is one of the branches/fields of medical science.

Psycho problems? There’s no such thing as ‘psycho problems’ in scientific terms. Only 3 out of 1,000 psychology studies can be reliably replicated annually in the real world practices—so where’s the problem? You are You. You’re only considered ‘troubled’ if there’s a diagnosable mental disorder, like neural short-circuiting or neurotransmitter deficiencies due to specific causes. We are also in a mentally disturbed state when we experience the shock of deep sorrow or commit an evil act, something like that, sometimes, it can last for a long time. Now, due to pressure from many parties, they have updated the DSM-5-TR Manual and added many new modified criteria for various things. In the past, it was not actually that complicated.
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  • #231
  • Mar 29, 2025 1:57pm Mar 29, 2025 1:57pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} They do not study science, except for clinical psychologists who are required to observe mentally ill patients in hospital wards for approximately two years to qualify them to educate others about mental health. However, those with comprehensive knowledge and the authority to provide therapy are Psychiatrists, or Mental Health Specialists. They are trained in the fundamentals of biological science. Psychiatry is one of the branches/fields of medical science. Psycho problems? There’s no such thing as ‘psycho problems’ in scientific terms....
__________ grogol[rumah gila] = are you from Bogor , Depok or Jakarta ?
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #232
  • Mar 29, 2025 2:03pm Mar 29, 2025 2:03pm
Quoting profits7
{quote} __________ grogol[rumah gila] = are you from Bogor , Depok or Jakarta ?
Aha Bro! Jumpa orang Se-Negeri. Lol Saya pernah tinggal di Bogor dulunya, kerja ngamen diseputaran klinik se-Jabodetabek. Saya asal dari wilayah paling Barat, Nanggroe Atjeh Darussalam. Atjeh Moorden -
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  • #233
  • Mar 29, 2025 2:10pm Mar 29, 2025 2:10pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Aha Bro! Jumpa orang Se-Negeri. Lol Saya pernah tinggal di Bogor dulunya, kerja ngamen diseputaran klinik se-Jabodetabek. Saya asal dari wilayah paling Barat, Nanggroe Atjeh Darussalam.
Aha Bro! Meet people from all over the country. Lol I used to live in Bogor, busking around clinics in Jabodetabek. I come from the westernmost region, Nanggroe Atjeh Darussalam.
_____________ I've a feeling that you R a Doctor of sume sort ! ? !
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #234
  • Mar 29, 2025 2:16pm Mar 29, 2025 2:16pm
Quoting profits7
{quote} Aha Bro! Meet people from all over the country. Lol I used to live in Bogor, busking around clinics in Jabodetabek. I come from the westernmost region, Nanggroe Atjeh Darussalam. _____________ I've a feeling that you R a Doctor of sume sort ! ? !
The translation is still not quite accurate, but it's okay.
Quote
Aha Bro! Met someone from the same country. Lol. I used to live in Bogor and worked as a street performer around clinics across Jabodetabek. I'm originally from the westernmost region, Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam. Aceh Moorden.

I am a General Practitioner, just an ordinary one.
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  • #235
  • Edited Mar 30, 2025 7:50am Mar 29, 2025 2:22pm | Edited Mar 30, 2025 7:50am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} The translation is still not quite accurate, but it's okay. {quote} I am a General Practitioner, just an ordinary one.
________ you R Very Modest = I like that 4sure !
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  • #236
  • Mar 29, 2025 2:37pm Mar 29, 2025 2:37pm
Quoting profits7
{quote} ________ you R Very Modest = I like that 4sure ! I was born in Bogor , then my Parents had to go back to Holland {image}
Oh! Maybe you’re of mixed (blasteran) — could be Indo, huh? With European blood. Awesome, bro! I’ve read some of your posts, and it sounds like you’re a profitable trader now, and fighting those psycho bullshitty cartels. Love to see it. Ahahaha! Wishing you endless success, bro, and don’t forget souvenirs if you ever come back to Indonesia!
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  • #237
  • Edited 6:31pm Mar 29, 2025 6:17pm | Edited 6:31pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Oh! Maybe you’re of mixed (blasteran) — could be Indo, huh? With European blood. Awesome, bro! I’ve read some of your posts, and it sounds like you’re a profitable trader now, and fighting those psycho bullshitty cartels. Love to see it. Ahahaha! Wishing you endless success, bro, and don’t forget souvenirs if you ever come back to Indonesia!
"if you ever come back to Indonesia!"

________ I dont think ppl with a Dutch family Name are Very Welcome in Beautiful Indonesia , even
if they do NOT hav Blue eyes = when Indonesia was still a colony , da Dutch government stole tooo Much2 otherwise my Family was able to stay and me still Enjoyin petjil oelek ect2
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #238
  • Edited 7:22pm Mar 29, 2025 7:07pm | Edited 7:22pm
Quoting profits7
{quote} "if you ever come back to Indonesia!" ________ I dont think ppl with a Dutch family Name are Very Welcome in Beautiful Indonesia , even if they do NOT hav Blue eyes = when Indonesia was still a colony , da Dutch government stole tooo Much2 otherwise my Family was able to stay and me still Enjoyin petjil oelek ect2
That was in the past; now it's a different story. In Lamno, on the west coast of Aceh, you can find girls of Portuguese and Dutch descent, all with blue and green eyes but speaking the local language. In the Indonesian national football team, most players today are naturalized from the Netherlands. The memory remains, but the pain is gone. After all, in the province of Aceh, the only region where the VOC did not last long due to continuous war for (only just) 30 years, it caused the VOC to suffer enormous losses, and many soldiers, both from the Netherlands and (bastardo) Marechaussee mercenaries, were killed. Only a few regions were not colonized for long; the rest were all foolish, colonized for hundreds of years because they were weak and unwilling to die in war. There has never been a company as profitable as the VOC until now, not even Saudi Aramco or Apple Inc. So, don't be fooled by the wrong media - out there.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mos...nies-all-time/
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  • #239
  • Mar 29, 2025 7:27pm Mar 29, 2025 7:27pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} That was in the past; now it's a different story. In Lamno, on the west coast of Aceh, you can find girls of Portuguese and Dutch descent, all with blue and green eyes but speaking the local language. In the Indonesian national football team, most players today are naturalized from the Netherlands. The memory remains, but the pain is gone. After all, in the province of Aceh, the only region where the VOC did not last long due to continuous war for (only just) 30 years, it caused the VOC to suffer enormous losses, and many soldiers, both...
__________ Trima kassi Banjak for ur Reply = You stayedUp All NITE or that was ur shift

#23 ist my Nepfew = just kiddin
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #240
  • Mar 30, 2025 1:28am Mar 30, 2025 1:28am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} They do not study science, except for clinical psychologists who are required to observe mentally ill patients in hospital wards for approximately one or two years to qualify them to educate others about mental health. We, as General Practitioners, were previously trained and required to spend six months in that ward because the credit system to graduate from that field was quite significant in the past. However, those with comprehensive knowledge and the authority to provide therapy are Psychiatrists, or Mental Health Specialists. They...
That is interesting info. Also that is a joke, I do not take psychology seriously and certainly do not have a psychologist.
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