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  • #1,621
  • Mar 27, 2025 7:37am Mar 27, 2025 7:37am
Quoting Fadhl
Good day! Despite yesterday strong red candle, price did not provide a change in the retrace up structure. My bias is still price should reach at least 50 Fib. News in a few! Good news is good and bad news is bad. Trump added new tariffs on cars! This is again very bad for equities, dollar and US economy. {image} TA has a bearish flag! A breakout and a bearish retest will confirm the down movement.
Good data, good for equities.
Today's plan:
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  • #1,622
  • Mar 27, 2025 8:07am Mar 27, 2025 8:07am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Good data, good for equities. Today's plan: {image}
Anticipating gap fill first before next move
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  • #1,623
  • Mar 27, 2025 8:42am Mar 27, 2025 8:42am
The opening range was very bearish. Price reached Weekly level. If price closes above the weekly level, it means fresh liquidity jumped in.
We wait for the retest to jump in.
Otherwise, there's a lower TL to be checked.
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  • #1,624
  • Mar 27, 2025 8:48am Mar 27, 2025 8:48am
Quoting Fadhl
The opening range was very bearish. Price reached Weekly level. If price closes above the weekly level, it means fresh liquidity jumped in. We wait for the retest to jump in. Otherwise, there's a lower TL to be checked. {image}
If the retest is bullish, I'm in.
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  • #1,625
  • Mar 27, 2025 8:49am Mar 27, 2025 8:49am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} Anticipating gap fill first before next move {image}
Did a quick scalp
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  • #1,626
  • Mar 27, 2025 9:01am Mar 27, 2025 9:01am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} If the retest is bullish, I'm in. {image}
This is cancelled! I don 't think price will retest the weekly level. Price already went above the opening range. So I'll apply the strategy: breakout and retest.
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EDIT:
- 10:09: I'm not in yet. The retest is bearish.
  • #1,627
  • Mar 27, 2025 9:16am Mar 27, 2025 9:16am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} This is cancelled! I don 't think price will retest the weekly level. Price already went above the opening range. So I'll apply the strategy: breakout and retest. {image} EDIT: - 10:09: I'm not in yet. The retest is bearish.
I'm in now with a modified STP.
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  • #1,628
  • Mar 27, 2025 9:39am Mar 27, 2025 9:39am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I'm in now with a modified STP. {image}
TP1 hit
  • #1,629
  • Mar 27, 2025 9:58am Mar 27, 2025 9:58am
My strategy:
- Strong resistance on 19955.03 to 19942.33 got broken thru
- We had a consolidation zone from 19948.68 to 19828.71 which lasted about 20hrs. This consolidation just got a manipulation to the downside to 19744.92. Now a break thru the resistance on the consolidation confirmed a continuing upwards movement. Possibly for the day.
- Adding to that we have a FvG on the m15 chart from 20216.15 to 20156.62 that wants to get filled so naturally we have a pull upwards to it. A fill of that FvG could (probably will) be followed by a downwards move to new possible lows
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  • #1,630
  • Mar 27, 2025 10:08am Mar 27, 2025 10:08am
Quoting Mehdirastine
{quote} Thanks bro l, but you know, I'm kinda new to this trade things, do you know any good YouTube channel for learning useful stuff?
There are too many. But I found this one serious and he has a similar strategy.
Utube Channel: UCp90hB8_sqLcEEXVgiUCbcw
Inserted Video

Go through his videos and it will help you a lot.
  • #1,631
  • Mar 27, 2025 10:14am Mar 27, 2025 10:14am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I'm in now with a modified STP. {image}
I closed all.
Price broke the channel and it may go south before resuming up.
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Happy with the outcome!
(Also I was busy with other trades: Gold, Oil and EU).

I got in again at the same spot.
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  • #1,632
  • Mar 27, 2025 11:22am Mar 27, 2025 11:22am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I closed all. Price broke the channel and it may go south before resuming up. {image} Happy with the outcome! (Also I was busy with other trades: Gold, Oil and EU). I got in again at the same spot. {image}
TP1 hit
  • #1,633
  • Mar 27, 2025 11:53am Mar 27, 2025 11:53am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} TP1 hit
And stopped out.
  • #1,634
  • Mar 27, 2025 3:13pm Mar 27, 2025 3:13pm
End of day analysis!
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We got another bearish day, but NO change in the structure! Price is making a HL. As long as there is no LL, we can expect anytime a move up to create a new HH.
Tariffs noises are weighing a lot and restraining the move up to 50%.
Tomorrow we have Core PCE.
1- An overshoot, cancel the 50% and price go south;
2- Inline and undershoot, the 50% is reachable and price goes north.

Monday is end of Month and Quarter. Rebalancing portfolios large hands and corporations is in play.
Good evening/night!
  • #1,635
  • Mar 28, 2025 2:12am Mar 28, 2025 2:12am
Yesterday:
We continued the first manipulation with an up move, followed by a second bearish manipulation to the downside. We had good evidence for a liquidity run after the fvg on 15:15 got broken thru with another fvg on 16:30. Whitch got respected very well. The chart then proceeded to bounce on the 19.817,73 lvl from 17:45 to 19:00.
After that we got another push upwards closing at the 19.911,50 lvl. Followed by a strong bearish downward movement and resulting in the consolidation we got now.
Yesterday at abot the same time we also got a consolidation somewhat like the one we got now and bigger movements are also likely to happen at about the same time like yesterday.

Today:
For today i´m expecting a continuing bear market, we have the last day of the week and month, like Fadhl said, so fear/ uncertainty around the reciprocal tariffs is rising. I´m also watching if the same CMD (Consolidation Manipulation Distribution) pattern repeats itself today or if we are just going to fall like a rock. Only way i can see a bullish day would be because of good news (PCE, Tariffs,...) or a liquidation day to grab liquidity on the north side of the chart. Like i also said in my last post, there is a fvg at 20.216,15 to 20.156,62 waiting to get filled eventually, just a question when it will happen.
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  • #1,636
  • Mar 28, 2025 7:32am Mar 28, 2025 7:32am
Quoting Fadhl
End of day analysis! {image} We got another bearish day, but NO change in the structure! Price is making a HL. As long as there is no LL, we can expect anytime a move up to create a new HH. Tariffs noises are weighing a lot and restraining the move up to 50%. Tomorrow we have Core PCE. 1- An overshoot, cancel the 50% and price go south; 2- Inline and undershoot, the 50% is reachable and price goes north. Monday is end of Month and Quarter. Rebalancing portfolios large hands and corporations is in play. Good evening/night!
Good day!
Data came with an overshoot!
Scenario 1 is in play.
  • #1,637
  • Mar 28, 2025 7:43am Mar 28, 2025 7:43am
I was wondering if I could get some help, better understanding of the Core PCE. In the Forex Factory calendar it shows the percentage is higher and it's a green color, so I thought that with it being higher and green, the stocks would go up higher. Me being naive I guess lol. Should we pay attention to the Usual Effect where it says "'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency"?
  • #1,638
  • Mar 28, 2025 8:40am Mar 28, 2025 8:40am
Euro bent the knee to Trump's tariffs. This is a good news for US Equities. Hence the move up we witnessed.
From FA, NQ should drop.
But from Political war, NQ should go up!
The opening range provided a red candle with a large wick and no break to the downside.
So we will follow the strategy: wait for a breakout and retest.
There is consumer confidence data coming soon.
So trade safely.
  • #1,639
  • Mar 28, 2025 8:51am Mar 28, 2025 8:51am
Quoting scapitalllc
I was wondering if I could get some help, better understanding of the Core PCE. In the Forex Factory calendar it shows the percentage is higher and it's a green color, so I thought that with it being higher and green, the stocks would go up higher. Me being naive I guess lol. Should we pay attention to the Usual Effect where it says "'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency"?
Any data should be read taking into consideration the CONTEXT.
In a normal/regular economic context, inflation is low and Central banks would like to push it up with various tools. Hence a green data is considered good and vice-versa.

But in the current context:
1- Inflation is already higher than CB target of 2%;
2- Tariffs will push further up inflation
3- Recession or slowing economy with higher inflation makes consumer in a worse position.

So if the current reading of inflation is higher than expected and along with the worse economic context, it becomes very bad.

In addition, when we have a manufactured recession made 100% by Trump policies in order to make pressure on the FED to print free money and cut rates, the FED will have a tied hands; the FED cannot cut rates if inflation is high.
If you recall, when inflation went up during Covid, the FED increased rates!
So how the FED is going to manage this complex situation. Hence the uncertainty that market is feeling.
  • #1,640
  • Mar 28, 2025 8:58am Mar 28, 2025 8:58am
Quick scalp
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