Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

XNG/USD Analysis: Natural Gas Price Drops to March Low



On 27 January, our analysis of the natural gas chart highlighted the formation of an ascending channel. Later, on 10 March, we noted that the sharp price increase had created technical conditions for a correction.
Since then, as indicated by the arrow on the XNG/USD chart, natural gas prices have declined by approximately 19%.

Why Is the Price of Natural Gas Falling?
Unseasonably Warm Weather: Atmospheric G2 reported on Wednesday that forecasts now indicate significant warming across the eastern half of the U.S. from 31 March to 4 April. This could reduce demand for natural gas used in heating.
Rising Inventories: According to the EIA’s forecast, weekly natural gas storage levels are expected to increase by +33 billion cubic feet over the past week.



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Announcement of New Tariffs Boosts the US Dollar



Yesterday, it was revealed that Donald Trump plans to introduce new 25% tariffs on cars not manufactured in the United States. This duty will be added to existing tariffs and is set to take effect on 2 April. The White House believes that these measures will support the US economy and, in the long term, create new jobs.
At the same time, critics warn that the new tariffs could trigger inflation and lead to a recession. Currently, markets are responding to the news with a strengthening of the US dollar.

USD/JPY



Following the formation of a bullish engulfing pattern on 11 March, USD/JPY buyers have managed to hold above the key resistance level of 150.00.
Technical analysis suggests that if the pair continues trading above 149.30–149.00, further growth towards the 152.00–151.20 range is possible. A break below 149.00 could trigger a new downward move, potentially leading to a retest of the March lows at 146.60.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

How to Perform Order Flow Analysis in Forex



In trading, understanding the mechanics behind market movements is crucial. This article delves into the concept of order flow analysis, focusing on its unique challenges in the decentralised forex market, and offers alternative strategies rooted in supply and demand dynamics.

Order Flow Analysis and Its Limitations in Forex
Order flow analysis serves as a powerful lens through which traders examine the buying and selling activity in a market. In conventional markets like stocks or commodities, it involves scrutinising various data points sourced from a centralised exchange, such as bid-ask spreads, volume, and types of orders, to gauge the market’s direction.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Price Hits Record High



On 19 March, we reported that gold had surpassed $3,000 per ounce for the first time in history and suggested this psychological level could be tested.
As shown on the XAU/USD chart, the price briefly dipped below $3,000 but quickly rebounded. According to the Smart Money Concept methodology, this may have been a liquidity sweep triggered by stop-loss orders placed below the key level. Regardless, the test occurred (as indicated by the arrow), and the bulls resumed the rally. The new all-time high is now around $3,080 and could be broken again today.

Why Is Gold Rising?
➝ Uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans
➝ Expectations of lower interest rates
Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty and tends to perform well in a low-rate environment. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have raised their year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,300.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Ford (F) Share Price Drops Following Trump's Tariffs



President Trump has fulfilled his promise to impose tariffs on foreign car manufacturers, introducing a 25% tariff on all cars and light trucks not made in the United States, as well as on "certain auto parts."
As reported by Yahoo Finance: "This will continue to drive growth like you've never seen before," Trump stated from the White House on Wednesday while signing the tariff order. The 25% tariffs are set to take effect on 2 April, adding to existing duties. The White House announced that $100 billion in annual tariffs would be collected.

Why Have Ford (F) Shares Fallen?
Trump’s decision has led to a sharp drop in car manufacturers’ share prices, particularly in Europe. However, shares of American automakers have also declined. Ford (F) shares, according to the price chart, fell by approximately 4% yesterday.
This decline is due to the fact that Ford (as well as GM and Stellantis) has manufacturing facilities in Canada, Mexico, and China, which now means higher costs due to the impact of tariffs on supply chains.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Does Lump Sum Investing Mean for Investors and Traders?



Lump sum investing is when an investor or trader commits a significant amount of capital to the market in one go rather than spreading it over time. This approach is believed to provide strong long-term returns but also comes with risks, particularly in volatile markets. This article explores how lump sum investing works, why investors and traders use it, potential risks, and strategies to manage exposure in different market conditions.

What Is Lump Sum Investing?
Lump sum investing is when an investor puts a significant amount of capital into the market at once, rather than spreading it over time. This approach is common when someone receives a windfall—such as an inheritance, bonus, or proceeds from closing an effective position—and decides to invest the full amount immediately.
Unlike dollar-cost averaging (DCA), which involves dividing an investment into smaller, regular parts, lump sum investing seeks to maximise market exposure from day one. The key argument of investors is that markets tend to rise over time. By investing upfront, capital has more time to grow, rather than sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Stock Markets Decline Amid Trump Tariff News



Comparing the approximate difference between last week's opening and closing prices on stock index charts:
➝ The US S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) fell by 2.4%.
➝ The European Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe 50 on FXOpen) dropped by 2%.
Why Are Stocks Falling?

The bearish sentiment in stock markets is largely driven by news surrounding White House tariff policies, as reflected in Federal Reserve statements late last week:
➝ Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that tariffs will "inevitably" fuel inflation, at least in the short term.
➝ Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that rapid shifts in US trade policy have created uncertainty for businesses.

US developments are also weighing on European stock markets, which were already under pressure following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on foreign cars. Trump has also threatened further tariffs on the EU and Canada, heightening trade tensions.
Today, the Euro Stoxx 50 index opened with a bearish gap, hitting its lowest level since early 2025, falling below the previous yearly low of 5,292. This reflects growing market concerns ahead of 2 April, when Trump is expected to confirm the implementation of new tariffs.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock Hits 2025 Low



As seen on the Alphabet (GOOGL) stock chart, the price has dropped close to $156—a level not seen since September 2024.
Since the start of 2025, the stock has fallen by more than 18%.

Why Is GOOGL Falling?
As mentioned earlier today, overall market sentiment remains bearish due to the White House’s tariff policies.
For Alphabet (GOOGL), the situation has worsened today due to the following developments (as reported by the media):
➝ Google has admitted liability and agreed to pay $100 million in cash to settle a US class-action lawsuit accusing the company of overcharging advertisers, according to Reuters. Alphabet shares dropped 4.4%.

➝ Google’s division was found guilty of anti-competitive behaviour in India related to its app store billing system.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Struggle to Sustain Gains—What’s Next?



AUD/USD declined below the 0.6320 and 0.6300 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.5700.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

1. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6320 level against the US Dollar.
2. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6300 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
3. NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.5760 resistance zone.
4. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5715 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6330 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6300 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.
The pair even settled below 0.6280 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6270. A low was formed at 0.6269 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 31 March - 4 April


Market Insights with Gary Thomson: UK & US Inflation, US Durable Goods Orders, and Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode, we discuss:
- RBA Interest Rate Decision
- US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
- Unemployment Rate in Canada
- Corporate Earnings Statements

Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.

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Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

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Disclaimer: This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Are the Most Popular Momentum Indicators for Trading?



Want to master the art of momentum trading? Look no further. In this FXOpen article, we’ll explore how to use momentum indicators, the signals they generate, and five most popular momentum indicators for trading.

What Is a Momentum Indicator?
Momentum in technical analysis refers to the rate at which an asset's price accelerates or decelerates, helping traders identify potential trend continuations or reversals.
A momentum indicator is a tool used in technical analysis to measure the speed and strength of an asset’s price movements. By analysing changes in price over a specific period, these indicators provide insights into the underlying force driving market trends.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Brent Crude Oil Price Rises Above $71



Brent crude oil is trading above $71 per barrel today, marking its highest level since late February. As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price surged by approximately 2.6% on the last day of March.

Why Has Oil Risen?
Bullish sentiment in the market is driven by the US President’s stance on Russia and Iran. According to Trading Economics:
➝ Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of 25–50% on buyers of Russian oil if he believes Moscow is obstructing his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. This could put pressure on key importers such as India and China.

➝ He has also threatened Iran with further tariffs and airstrikes until the country agrees to abandon its nuclear weapons programme.
The rise in Brent crude prices appears to reflect traders’ concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply chains.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Moderna (MRNA) Shares Plunge Nearly 9%



Moderna (MRNA) shares tumbled by approximately 8.9%, falling below $29—marking their lowest level since April 2020, when global markets were shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since the start of 2025, MRNA’s share price has declined by around 32%.

Why Did MRNA Shares Drop?
On Monday, MRNA led the decline among US biotech stocks following the resignation of Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. Marks had held this position for over a decade.
During Trump’s first term, Marks oversaw the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and established guidelines for emerging treatments such as cell and gene therapy.
However, in Trump’s second term, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. now serves as Health Secretary. According to The Wall Street Journal, Marks criticised Kennedy’s stance on vaccines in his resignation letter, calling it “misinformation and lies.”

The pharmaceutical industry was already under pressure amid speculation that Trump’s tariff plans could extend to prescription drugs, which are typically exempt from such measures. Marks' departure has further intensified uncertainty regarding regulatory decisions under the new administration.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is Random Walk Theory and Its Implications in Trading?



Random walk theory argues that market prices move erratic, making it difficult to analyse past data for an advantage. It suggests that technical and fundamental analysis provide little to no edge, as prices instantly reflect all available information. While some traders embrace this idea, others challenge it. This article explores the theory, its implications, criticisms, and what it means for traders navigating financial markets.

What Is Random Walk Theory?
Random walk theory reflects the idea that financial markets move erratic, making it impossible to analyse past price data for an advantage. The theory argues that price changes are random and independent, meaning past movements don’t influence future direction. This challenges both technical and fundamental analysis, arguing traders who attempt to time the market are essentially guessing.

The concept was first introduced by Maurice Kendall in 1953, who found no meaningful patterns in stock prices. Later, Burton Malkiel popularised it in A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1973), arguing that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a stock list would perform as well as professional traders. The underlying principle is that markets are efficient, instantly reflecting all available information.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Eyes Fresh Gains While USD/CAD Dips



GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2900 zone. USD/CAD declined and now consolidates below the 1.4350 level.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

 

1. The British Pound is eyeing more gains above the 1.2970 resistance.
2. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2935 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/CAD started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the 1.4415 resistance.
4. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.4310 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above the 1.2870 level. The British Pound started a steady increase above the 1.2900 resistance zone against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

The pair surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2972 swing high to the 1.2879 low. The pair is now consolidating near the 1.2925 zone and the 1.2420 level and the 50-hour simple moving average.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Braces for Increased Volatility Ahead of New Tariffs



Amid global economic uncertainty and anticipation of new tariffs, major currency pairs continue to test key levels. In recent weeks, market participants have been exercising caution, awaiting potential changes in trade policy that could significantly impact exchange rates. The introduction of new tariffs by the Trump administration could also put pressure on European currencies, adding another layer of uncertainty and volatility to the market. In the coming days, investors will focus on which tariffs will take effect from April and how this might influence the trajectory of leading currency pairs.

EUR/USD



The euro, after rebounding from 1.0950, tested key support at 1.0730 and is currently trading within a narrow range of 1.0850–1.0750. Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests a possible continuation of the downward trend, as a series of bearish reversal patterns has formed on the daily chart.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Prices Hover Near Record Highs Ahead of Trump’s Tariff Announcement



As shown on the XAU/USD chart today, gold prices are fluctuating near their all-time high, set when the price of an ounce surpassed $3,140 for the first time in history.
Gold has risen by approximately 19% in the first three months of 2025.

Why Is Gold Rising?
On 2 April, traders' sentiment is driving gold prices higher in anticipation of US President Trump’s tariff announcements, expected later this evening.
This event enhances gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, as concerns grow that Trump’s aggressive trade policies could slow global economic growth and fuel inflation.
Additionally, media reports highlight strong demand for gold from central banks, while exchange-traded funds linked to the precious metal are seeing capital inflows from investors concerned about geopolitical uncertainty.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Shares Drop Over 7%



As the chart shows, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shares declined by approximately 7.6%, reaching their lowest level since late February. This marked one of the worst performances in the stock market yesterday.

Why Did JNJ Shares Fall?
Two major bearish factors contributed to the decline:
A Texas judge rejected Johnson & Johnson's third attempt to settle lawsuits related to allegations that its baby powder and other talc-based products harmed consumers.
On Tuesday, Johnson & Johnson announced that its upcoming acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies is expected to dilute adjusted earnings per share by approximately $0.25 for the full year 2025. Investors appear to have reacted negatively to this outlook, despite the company’s expectation that the deal will generate around $700 million in additional sales.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Currency Risks in International Stock Investment



In the realm of international stock investment, understanding and managing currency risks is pivotal. This risk can substantially influence the returns on global investments, making it essential for investors to grasp its nuances and develop strategies to mitigate its impact. Today, we’ll delve into different types of currency risks, factors influencing these risks, and effective ways to manage them.

Understanding Currency Risks
Currency risks, sometimes known as foreign currency exchange risks, are inherent in international stock investment. This currency exposure risk arises when the value of a foreign currency fluctuates, affecting the position’s value when converted back to the domestic currency.

To use an example of currency risk, consider an American investor who buys stocks in a European company. If the euro weakens against the US dollar, the value of these stocks in USD decreases, even if the stock's price in euros remains unchanged.

It's crucial for investors to understand these risks, as they can significantly impact the returns on global investments. Effectively managing this exposure may help in protecting and potentially enhancing returns in a globally connected market.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Interest in the Dollar Declines Amid Trump's Escalating Trade Wars



The tariffs introduced by Trump yesterday on imports from various countries—20% on the EU, 34% on China, and 46% on Vietnam—have heightened uncertainty in the currency markets. As expected, these measures have contributed to increased volatility in major currency pairs. The actions of the White House administration have led to losses for the dollar, causing concern among investors. The tariffs also affect countries such as Taiwan (32%), Japan (24%), and South Korea (25%), which could significantly impact exchange rates. Amid global economic instability, market participants are focused on how these changes will affect the world economy.

USD/JPY
Yesterday, before Donald Trump's speech, the USD/JPY currency pair was trading near 150.00. Better-than-expected preliminary labour market data and a rise in US industrial orders for February (0.6% versus the forecast of 0.5%) contributed to a slight strengthening of USD/JPY. However, the US President’s announcement of trade tariffs led to sharp market fluctuations and a loss of more than 150 pips for USD/JPY within just a few hours. At present, the pair is trading below 148.00. A technical analysis of USD/JPY suggests a possible test of this year's March lows in the 147.20–146.70 range.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.