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The Swamp

  • #121,901
  • Mar 25, 2025 9:36am Mar 25, 2025 9:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That close weakens above some. I can't ignore several things have not occurred, and this higher lc close weakens it further. Also If I wanted to short. I think raising my entry closer to 868 with come sort of exhaustion is better than 854 now. I do have 1h dynamic R at 0853. There or higher may be a better entry than 36. On normal day trading generic wise. +65 pips is a good generic entry above 803.
With LC below 1.0806, it hasn't broken the bearish structure. The structure is still bearish, but weaker looking. That weakness may allow a test of the high at 858 area. That 868 area is often a good trade back to 803. Exhaustion or some other reversal sign may help. There is a high there. So that's some sort of resistance. My 1h dynamic is there at 853. It breaks with a 1h close above.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,902
  • Mar 25, 2025 11:40am Mar 25, 2025 11:40am
this may be a infant b/o 15/30min
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,903
  • Mar 25, 2025 12:31pm Mar 25, 2025 12:31pm
hitting the light support
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,904
  • Mar 25, 2025 7:40pm Mar 25, 2025 7:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I will just fall back to day trading. But may hold some if it runs. I could enter 825/36.. but trying to wait for 85x. 877 was/is a interest point on the weekly. This pair loves 100 pip moves. the low 777.. But the high 954.. Either 854 area, or 877 area. The optimal place to tp 0793 if it can retake 806 as a day trade. Is about 65 pips from 793 or 85X area
It didnt trigger my pending.. Its since fell below 806. Maybe there is a sweet spot 803 to 806 to short
803 may attract, 806 may resist
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,905
  • Mar 26, 2025 12:19am Mar 26, 2025 12:19am
Quoting LoneTrader1
Perhaps a revisit to the lows
  • #121,906
  • Mar 26, 2025 12:21am Mar 26, 2025 12:21am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote}
Revisit 1.0810
  • #121,907
  • Mar 26, 2025 3:19am Mar 26, 2025 3:19am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} We’ve reached around 770 and jumped toward 820 and even above. As long as we don’t go over 870, I think it’s still okay. However, some indicators are showing there’s still potential for it to go higher. It might reverse, but based on how things look right now, I wouldn’t be fully exposed on the short side. But also no longs for me
I'm very busy.
For now, we’re okay, we haven’t dropped since I last wrote, we’re still holding at the same support level.
However, some indicators are now showing again that it might fall, compared to yesterday.
So around this zone, I’m reloading a bit, right now at 800, maybe even 810.
It would be great to see even 820, with the indicators still showing the same signals.


And from there, new lows.
I’ll read everything that’s been posted in the next few days.
Good luck to everyone!
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,908
  • Mar 26, 2025 3:47am Mar 26, 2025 3:47am
A falling wedge pattern into that 1.0765 support. Let's see how they play it. Incase of breakdown and continuation downward, the orange trendline would be the trajectory of price I would expect.
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  • #121,909
  • Edited 4:10am Mar 26, 2025 3:51am | Edited 4:10am
I did expect a large drop to 1.0398. I found another place with another broker. That stays open longer in December. I would have to decrease the target level (increase drop size) to 1.0354. That looks too deep in the time remaining. Another spot I found is 1.0672 as a possible bounce point. A 4h/day close below 672 bearish. Above may be bullish for a test of 1.0806. A 4h/day close above 806 may be bullish again. I'm short and may add 803/06. Looking to tp near 672. Once there I need to consider the options. The same if pa breaks above 806. My stops are above 806 atm
I have a long term bearish outlook. I believe the repatriation hurt the usd since Jan with the tariffs. That's mostly temp. 806 is smaller than 672 and 354.. They all may become tough R when below.. 354 may be the last S and later R. It may end up a long term R
If wrong on timing. And the usd bears come in force. 1.1047 can be a long term R. The EU loves 100 pips. The high was 100 below. I didnt see this until I used this new brokers numbers. The new broker keeps the feed open through the holidays. So i dont lose days of pa. So my info is closer to what the banks have. On the way up 672 didnt mean anything. I would had caught the move was extra strong if i had known. On the way down we may see a reaction to judge move .
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,910
  • Mar 26, 2025 4:39am Mar 26, 2025 4:39am
A buy opportunity
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  • #121,911
  • Mar 26, 2025 4:52am Mar 26, 2025 4:52am
GU if......
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  • #121,912
  • Mar 26, 2025 5:09am Mar 26, 2025 5:09am
EU if like this the gate to the downside is open
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  • #121,913
  • Mar 26, 2025 5:14am Mar 26, 2025 5:14am
Quoting LoneTrader1
EU if like this the gate to the downside is open {image}
But it can also do something like this... Waiting game
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  • #121,914
  • Mar 26, 2025 6:11am Mar 26, 2025 6:11am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} Bear Flag with alternative scenario if the ranging continues.... {image}
EA @ The Bear Flag
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  • #121,915
  • Mar 26, 2025 8:00am Mar 26, 2025 8:00am
Quoting gatorinla
I'm short and may add 803/06. Looking to tp near 672. Once there I need to consider the options. The same if pa breaks above 806. My stops are above 806 atm I have a long term bearish outlook.
Normal would be anytime now, into the next 60 min.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,916
  • Mar 26, 2025 9:04am Mar 26, 2025 9:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Normal would be anytime now, into the next 60 min.
It never went back since 817. That normally is a bearish sign so I added a short. 806 looks to be a good R again
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,917
  • Mar 26, 2025 9:10am Mar 26, 2025 9:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It didnt trigger my pending.. Its since fell below 806. Maybe there is a sweet spot 803 to 806 to short 803 may attract, 806 may resist {image}
Pa missed by a pip. Pa being below 806 is probably bearish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,918
  • Mar 26, 2025 9:49am Mar 26, 2025 9:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Pa missed by a pip. Pa being below 806 is probably bearish {image} {image}
Another smaller place for a possible break out is anything sustained under 785, -80 better
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,919
  • Mar 26, 2025 10:26am Mar 26, 2025 10:26am
that 740/750 area looks tough on paper. But if it does blow past it and 672. I dont know. My targets are unlikely to be reached 410, etc. They are just too far. But the 10 year probability 2 weeks back were 73%. So its not impossible, just not likely. I also changed the q target 398 to 354. It also would of had the 73% probability
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,920
  • Mar 26, 2025 10:32am Mar 26, 2025 10:32am
Back on track to target if we get a couple of 2X adr days
Back to the dotted line lines. Is back on the 354 trajectory
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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