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The Swamp

  • #121,861
  • Mar 24, 2025 12:23pm Mar 24, 2025 12:23pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} Daily Tf EA back below trendline and still acting as resistance. Target 1.67 level probably {image}
Bear Flag with alternative scenario if the ranging continues....
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  • #121,862
  • Mar 24, 2025 12:39pm Mar 24, 2025 12:39pm
A couple (man/women 2 people) has 2 parents each ( thats 4 more people). Lets say 1 generation apart or 20 yrs. The couple at age 20 has *1 child because its so expensive. Now let's say that *child went to college until finding a mate at 24. At age 24 his/her 2 parents are 44. The 4 grandparents 64. Now * he/her have a child. each 20 years you lose a generation. At the same time you not replacing the same amount. That decreases the need for housing. I didnt include the 8 great grandparents who died leaving an empty home/apartment. That candle is lit. Many have invested multiple homes that are now of future to be worthless. Those cities will fall or be torn down for their copper or whatever at salvage prices. With retirement/savings gone and no social net, I see people revolting.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,863
  • Mar 24, 2025 12:50pm Mar 24, 2025 12:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That may take that outflow pressure off the usd A LL after LC {image}
It's sneaking into that 1.0765 level, below could be a free fall, some retracement maybe before that happens!
  • #121,864
  • Mar 24, 2025 12:53pm Mar 24, 2025 12:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I got my same thesis from 2009 as energy U.S. production increased % wise. The value of the eur would decline verse usd, as they have to buy energy. It takes time. But now more than ever. With all the sanctions on rouge oil countries. It will force a even higher percent of purchases from the U.S. to Europe. Granted if the senile Grandpa dont start a war with Europe. That puts a * in it. I think this and the tariffs hurt the usd the past few months. When he shuts up the usd will regain. Back before the u.s. imported 50% of it oil the benchmark...
Yes, I see things similarly, with the addition that often the market makes an initial move in the opposite direction.
If the U.S. is in conflict with Europe, I don’t see a single reason why anyone would invest in Europe or why the European currency would strengthen. Not a single reason.
There is no scenario where the U.S. slows down, contracts economically, or enters a recession, and Europe somehow does well.


But as you mentioned, I remember back in 2009 when QE was announced, the dollar dropped significantly at first, only to recover everything later. And we never returned to those EUR/USD levels of 1.4 or 1.5 after 2012/2013.
So yes, there are probably big interests in this pair and lots of transactions, but buying euros and sitting through that kind of swap loss feels like SCI-FI to me. Still, patience is key, that’s what ultimately makes the difference in this field.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,865
  • Mar 24, 2025 12:55pm Mar 24, 2025 12:55pm
the 4h 792 did break
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,866
  • Mar 24, 2025 1:05pm Mar 24, 2025 1:05pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Yes, I see things similarly, with the addition that often the market makes an initial move in the opposite direction. If the U.S. is in conflict with Europe, I don’t see a single reason why anyone would invest in Europe or why the European currency would strengthen. Not a single reason. There is no scenario where the U.S. slows down, contracts economically, or enters a recession, and Europe somehow does well. But as you mentioned, I remember back in 2009 when QE was announced, the dollar dropped significantly at first, only to recover everything...
What may make a different is the year 2024. Closing below the 2022 close level, after reaching 0.95xx.. -1.0707 besides it was also below 1.05xx another notable close. Without the tariff talk. I dont think pa would of gone past 635, and that was after reaching 1.0085 first. In that drop was where the tweets started.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,867
  • Mar 24, 2025 1:08pm Mar 24, 2025 1:08pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} US500 {image}
I think it could still go up a bit more, but I’ve started selling what I bought 2 weeks ago, when I said, in my view, that was the bottom. Just enough to have some cash in case we drop again.
But I would have expected it to reach 5837 on SPX Cash.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,868
  • Mar 24, 2025 1:10pm Mar 24, 2025 1:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} What may make a different is the year 2024. Closing below the 2022 close level, after reaching 0.95xx.. -1.0707 besides it was also below 1.05xx another notable close. Without the tariff talk. I dont think pa would of gone past 635, and that was after reaching 1.0085 first. In that drop was where the tweets started.
Anyway, it's starting to look good on the daily chart too. I was thinking we might hit 770 today, so I’d reduce a bit of my exposure and try to short again, maybe around 800/820 or a bit lower tomorrow.
For now, we’re dropping slowly because there are still plenty of bulls, but once we fall like a rock, I think we’ll easily drop below 700.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,869
  • Edited 2:35pm Mar 24, 2025 2:22pm | Edited 2:35pm
I would like to see a close below 806, better below 793, better below 790. If above 806. That weakens the bear some. There was a few harmonic patterns in the 950 area. The first target for the 2 is 740 or 720
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,870
  • Mar 24, 2025 3:32pm Mar 24, 2025 3:32pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I think it could still go up a bit more, but I’ve started selling what I bought 2 weeks ago, when I said, in my view, that was the bottom. Just enough to have some cash in case we drop again. But I would have expected it to reach 5837 on SPX Cash.
Month end and quarter end rebalancing, it may reach there. The higher the better for short.
  • #121,871
  • Mar 24, 2025 6:32pm Mar 24, 2025 6:32pm
Short-Term Bearish Setup (Intraday/Swing)
Entry: Below 1.0806 (Confirmed rejection)
Stop-Loss: 1.0822-1.0836
Reasoning: Keeps risk tight, above minor rejections but still within the bearish framework.
Medium-Term Bearish Setup (Holding Days-Weeks)
Entry: Below 1.0806, targeting 1.0700 or lower
Stop-Loss: 1.0850-1.0877
Reasoning: 1.0850 is a key rejection area, while 1.0877 was an important weekly high.
Long-Term Positioning (Weeks-Months)
Entry: Building positions near 806, looking for deeper downside
Stop-Loss: 1.0890+
Reasoning: Gives room for noise but protects against trend invalidation.
Next Confirmation to Watch:
A NY Close Below 1.0806 → Stronger Bearish Confirmation. Check
A NY Close Below 1.0793 → Even More Bearish. Not
If PA reclaims 1.0836+ → Shorts become risky
Dont put all your eggs in one basket. GL
Keeping an eye on 1.0806.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,872
  • Mar 24, 2025 6:43pm Mar 24, 2025 6:43pm
Gator, how old are you if you dont mind? And how much time you trade ? Just courius
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #121,873
  • Mar 24, 2025 8:02pm Mar 24, 2025 8:02pm
Quoting ScalaFX
Gator, how old are you if you dont mind? And how much time you trade ? Just courius
Dinosaurs!
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #121,874
  • Edited 8:27pm Mar 24, 2025 8:08pm | Edited 8:27pm
Quoting ScalaFX
Gator, how old are you if you dont mind? And how much time you trade ? Just courius
Somewhere between 21 and the grave. I'm not always in a trade. I wait for entrees. But the charts are open when I watch the tube all week. Or when I surf. So i see most things when awake. Or a level alarm goes off.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,875
  • Mar 25, 2025 12:15am Mar 25, 2025 12:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Somewhere between 21 and the grave. I'm not always in a trade. I wait for entrees. But the charts are open when I watch the tube all week. Or when I surf. So i see most things when awake. Or a level alarm goes off.
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #121,876
  • Mar 25, 2025 2:17am Mar 25, 2025 2:17am
It may need to break before the 12h close. That may be soon. 1.0793.x, But also 790.
Trajectory I thought it may follow.
I dont know, but a breakdown can be large
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,877
  • Mar 25, 2025 2:25am Mar 25, 2025 2:25am
Quoting gatorinla
It may need to break before the 12h close. That may be soon. 1.0793.x, But also 790. Trajectory I thought it may follow. I dont know, but a breakdown can be large {image} {image}
It was running out of runway.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,878
  • Mar 25, 2025 2:28am Mar 25, 2025 2:28am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,879
  • Mar 25, 2025 2:35am Mar 25, 2025 2:35am
She is trying
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,880
  • Mar 25, 2025 2:41am Mar 25, 2025 2:41am
I dont know what will happen. If pa gets aggressive on a fall. Don't get in the way.
This trendline trajectory schedule may be where it goes
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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