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MePip 5M ORB Trading

  • #21
  • Edited 12:34pm Mar 20, 2025 12:09pm | Edited 12:34pm
pipcruiser, if you you do not mind, I will name my bot(ea) a "pipcruiser"?

I posted few question for you on DM, answer it via DM, if you can
  • #22
  • Mar 20, 2025 12:15pm Mar 20, 2025 12:15pm
Quoting driven18
pipcruiser, if you you do not mind, I will name my bot(ea) a "pipcruiser"? I posted few question for you on DM, answer it via DM, if you can {image}
Haha knock yourself out buddy will check DM later.

PC
Less is more...
  • #23
  • Mar 20, 2025 1:48pm Mar 20, 2025 1:48pm
why aren't trading Nasdaq or US30?
  • #24
  • Mar 20, 2025 11:42pm Mar 20, 2025 11:42pm
Quoting FxDora
why aren't trading Nasdaq or US30?
I trade QQQ and XLK, same same but different...

PC
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  • #25
  • Edited 11:48am Mar 21, 2025 11:37am | Edited 11:48am
My main bread and butter is Dow Futures, today I decided to use 2 methods, pipcruiser for the very first live trade, and my personal..it looks like they worked out well, pipcruiser worked out for + 100 points.

Pipcruiser, mate, I own you a pint.
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  • #26
  • Mar 21, 2025 12:08pm Mar 21, 2025 12:08pm
Quoting driven18
My main bread and butter is Dow Futures, today I decided to use 2 methods, pipcruiser for the very first live trade, and my personal..it looks like they worked out well, pipcruiser worked out for + 100 points. Pipcruiser, mate, I own you a pint. {image}
Awesome Driven, I love beers!

PC
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  • #27
  • Mar 21, 2025 12:15pm Mar 21, 2025 12:15pm
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Awesome Driven, I love beers! PC
Cheers mate! (check out the alc content)
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  • #28
  • Mar 21, 2025 12:34pm Mar 21, 2025 12:34pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Cheers mate! (check out the alc content) {image}
OMG, love IPA! With that % 10 should do the trick for a great night...

PC
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  • #29
  • Edited 6:57pm Mar 22, 2025 6:16pm | Edited 6:57pm
Hi Guys

I find the 5 minute ORB a nice setup but it has to accept the VWAP normally controls direction of liquidity on many days of the week.
Below is the ES 2 minute chart from Friday first and then Thursday - includes 5 Min ORB.
On Most days, price on ES will break the ORB in the direction of VWAP for US indices if you trade them.

This is just something I notice regularly - take it any way you like.
But we can't ignore many institutional traders are only allowed to Buy near VWAP & Sell near VWAP because they promise clients only to buy near Average Weighted Price to protect their clients interests. An interesting example is where Buffet was trying to unload a heap of shares in a falling market. He passed on his order to another institution who had an Average Price guarantee. He managed to Sell out his position with a higher profit because this institution took a loss as it had no choice but Sell way below VWAP and had to make up the difference to Buffet.

Buffet won again.

Cheers

PS. 80% of institutional Algorithm program turnover including HFT models use VWAP coding to purchase stocks or trade Future contracts. Food for thought when taking the next ORB breakout.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #30
  • Edited 7:23pm Mar 22, 2025 7:05pm | Edited 7:23pm
Quoting RickM
Hi Guys I find the 5 minute ORB a nice setup but it has to accept the VWAP normally controls direction of liquidity on many days of the week. Below is the ES 2 minute chart from Friday first and then Thursday - includes 5 Min ORB. On Most days, price on ES will break the ORB in the direction of VWAP for US indices if you trade them. This is just something I notice regularly - take it any way you like. But we can't ignore many institutional traders are only allowed to Buy near VWAP & Sell near VWAP because they promise clients only to buy near Average...
Here comes my friend RickM , I say well researched and interesting stats about VWAP, but even that is TMI, and as usual I will disregard anything to do with volume.
I will just say, it either go my way(s) or not and rest is up to my MM and controlling Mindfuck(Fear and Greed).
  • #31
  • Mar 23, 2025 3:43am Mar 23, 2025 3:43am
Quoting RickM
Hi Guys I find the 5 minute ORB a nice setup but it has to accept the VWAP normally controls direction of liquidity on many days of the week. Below is the ES 2 minute chart from Friday first and then Thursday - includes 5 Min ORB. On Most days, price on ES will break the ORB in the direction of VWAP for US indices if you trade them. This is just something I notice regularly - take it any way you like. But we can't ignore many institutional traders are only allowed to Buy near VWAP & Sell near VWAP because they promise clients only to buy near Average...
Thanks for your insight Rick. VWAP is just another lagging indicator and hence I do not use it.

PC
Less is more...
  • #32
  • Edited 7:31am Mar 23, 2025 7:10am | Edited 7:31am
There are some misconceptions on FF about trading ORB disregarding R:R 1:to infinity concept.

I have been trading live last 3 years with profitability of about 8-12% per month and heavily rely on using MM to achieve/squeeze as much reward as I possibly can out of PA momentum.

My motto is "You will go broke taking small profits", unless you trade similar to pipcruiser working with 8-10 different instruments/stocks to increase R:R.

I prefer to work with very few instruments, therefore RR 1:to infinity works very well.
  • #33
  • Edited 6:58pm Mar 23, 2025 5:35pm | Edited 6:58pm
Quoting Schinken
{quote} I guess that was poor wording from me. I did not mean the "reason why the market moved up", I'm completely happy with supply vs. demand as an explanation for all moves up or down. My question was, do we have reason to believe that a breakout from a certain range at a certain time will return results that don't simply follow a normal distribution ("normal" as a math term, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution). Because in order to show positive expectancy for the setup, this distribution will have to be...
Hi guys, I see good people on this thread.

Here's the best post on both threads posted so far. Honest post to think about, so I highlight it here.

I asked a similar question 3 years ago that was ignored and Shinken's ignored again.
It's an important question to answer to ourself, whatever our method may be that'll improve our trading to the next level.

If the answer is supply and demand then you need volume data pointing to RickM's approach.

Cheers.
Know what you trade
  • #34
  • Edited 9:39pm Mar 23, 2025 8:30pm | Edited 9:39pm
Quoting driven18
There are some misconceptions on FF about trading ORB disregarding R:R 1:to infinity concept. I have been trading live last 3 years with profitability of about 8-12% per month and heavily rely on using MM to achieve/squeeze as much reward as I possibly can out of PA momentum. My motto is "You will go broke taking small profits", unless you trade similar to pipcruiser working with 8-10 different instruments/stocks to increase R:R. I prefer to work with very few instruments, therefore RR 1:to infinity works very well.
Hi Driven, another difficult and controversial topic that have different opinions.

Driven wrote long time ago, it's the edge that's the most important.

Example, if you trade with a 1:5 risk reward, you perform a higher than 20% winrate, you're trading with an edge.
If you trade with a 1: 1 risk reward, you still have to perform a winrate higher than 50%.

Whatever we belief comes down to our individual knowledge, what we know about this market.

If we have the knowledge to scalp for 5pips risk with 5pips reward, performing above 50% winrate, that's our knowledge and skill about this market.

Similarly, if we have the knowledge to trade 5pips risk with 25pips reward, performing above 20% winrate, that's our knowledge and skill about this market.

It doesn't change the fact that we need to trade with an edge.

What really happen in trading that we don't see, that traders don't tell are,
Sometimes the risk is 5pips which regularly change to 15pips and more, cost averaging during live trading.
The reward is suppose to be 5pips but in live market it change to 3pips or widen to 17pips and so on.
There're also multiple entries on one trade signal. Reduced size, full size and increased lotsize.

Here we declare our belief about risk reward, but in live market we do something else. What's the point arguing about hypothetical beliefs that we don't adhere to?

I like what Driven wrote, we must trade with an edge whatever our belief may be. And however we trade in live market.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #35
  • Mar 23, 2025 8:47pm Mar 23, 2025 8:47pm
Dear bwilliam
pls reply in inbox
  • #36
  • Mar 24, 2025 5:53am Mar 24, 2025 5:53am
My tickers for this week:

PC
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  • #37
  • Mar 24, 2025 7:04am Mar 24, 2025 7:04am
Hi Guys

Just one example where Volume data confirms ORB breakout.
I'll bugger off after this post

Took the ORB breakout on ES with a 87% probability of achieving a nice win on the opening move.

Delta was running around 1200 Buyers advantage on first move - LONG
Ask/Bid imbalance was running at about 19% imbalance to Asks - LONG
Ask/Bid imbalance on each candle was between 14% to 40% favouring Asks - LONG
Cumulative Delta was running nicely Bullish - LONG
DOM shows nice stacked Ask orders nicely above Bid orders - LONG

Even with the first pullback, the DOM was yelling go LONG
After 14 Minutes the Sellers started to attack - it failed
Stay in
After 24 Minutes it has become a 50 /50 bet ................................CLOSE POSITION

What's the point of my post in regard to this ORB trade.
Ask/ Bid Imbalances often allows a 10 second glimpse into the FUTURE - that's enough time to stay on the correct side of the market on big moves.

I'll disappear back into my hole now

Cheers
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #38
  • Edited 8:12am Mar 24, 2025 7:31am | Edited 8:12am
NO volume, NO indicators, NOT any TMI crap. NO "guru said" crap, MM - YES, no Mindfuck to control Fear and Greed- YES.

RickM, I appreciate you, stay around buddy(do not bugger off and do not disappear into your hole)

Took Profit +100.
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  • #39
  • Mar 24, 2025 8:03am Mar 24, 2025 8:03am
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} I trade QQQ and XLK, same same but different... PC
Not quite the same today.
On NQ, this strategy failed, got whipped.
On YM and ES, it works
  • #40
  • Mar 24, 2025 9:36am Mar 24, 2025 9:36am
I have few accounts and I Money Managed Beautifully and without MindFuck to +175 points on a second account. Look where PA moved after my TP.

Controlled Mindfuck(Fear and Greed) in the circle.
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