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The Swamp

  • #121,721
  • Mar 18, 2025 7:49am Mar 18, 2025 7:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This post cleared the room.. {image}
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #121,722
  • Mar 18, 2025 7:53am Mar 18, 2025 7:53am
Quoting gatorinla
She's trying If she gets under 871.5. Hide women and children. Shoot the dogs. {image}
If right about 1.0410.. a possible short at 1.0821.5 may be soon.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,723
  • Mar 18, 2025 8:01am Mar 18, 2025 8:01am
Was it something I said?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,724
  • Mar 18, 2025 8:42am Mar 18, 2025 8:42am
Quoting gatorinla
The past dont ensure the future. From the past I can see 1.0410 this month. With about a 73% chance First stop may be 1.087x. PA needs to be below {image}
EA has a good chance of hitting 1.6724 before the month ends.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,725
  • Mar 18, 2025 9:18am Mar 18, 2025 9:18am
Nasdaq USTEC gap vs gap
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  • #121,726
  • Edited 12:48pm Mar 18, 2025 11:53am | Edited 12:48pm
London after 12h close took a shot but missed the fence. Its Tuesday, the chance is still about 73% for 1.0871x. The odds for 1.0410 are there. But it would be very hard to drop the 55 pips average, per day. With 9 days to go. Its past mid month now. London closed below 929 and 935 R. London also closed higher than yesterday. Bears need to make a decisive move, or go home. The drop earlier in London did look like it was real. It didnt follow through with 0877 and 71. PA is back to 0929 and 0935. Earlier it was higher. I still think 1.0929/0994 is a decent place tech wise this week. But 1.0411 is much harder. The outflow seems to be too much to overcome so far. Yesterday pa made a hh. The last 12h was lower than the previous 12h. Today's high at 1.0954x. The 12h low at 892.6. Bulls need a HH, bears need to break that 12h low, and get to 871x. Before Friday that may happen, whenever it is exhausted. Getting below 0871 is not looking probable atm. Just getting to 0871 dont look probable atm. Things can change. 1.0926.6 may attract. The SOS being below 934 and 929. When below those things can change. 877 and -871 can change things also. But it may run out of calendar first. 1.0411 will expire when out of calender
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,727
  • Mar 18, 2025 12:52pm Mar 18, 2025 12:52pm
4h with a HH

Quoting gatorinla
4h with a HH {image}
15 min

day
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,728
  • Mar 18, 2025 1:14pm Mar 18, 2025 1:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
London after 12h close took a shot but missed the fence. Its Tuesday, the chance is still about 73% for 1.0871x. The odds for 1.0410 are there. But it would be very hard to drop the 55 pips average, per day. With 9 days to go. Its past mid month now. London closed below 929 and 935 R. London also closed higher than yesterday. Bears need to make a decisive move, or go home. The drop earlier in London did look like it was real. It didnt follow through with 0877 and 71. PA is back to 0929 and 0935. Earlier it was higher. I still think 1.0929/0994 is...
I expect a revisit to 1.0902 but thinking if that's a revisit what's it for? 1.10 could be....
  • #121,729
  • Mar 18, 2025 1:17pm Mar 18, 2025 1:17pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} I tried one with tight SL relying on 1.0955 and Anything can happen... {image}
SL moved to break even! Next try near 1.10 if this level breaks
  • #121,730
  • Mar 18, 2025 2:45pm Mar 18, 2025 2:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
London after 12h close took a shot but missed the fence. Its Tuesday, the chance is still about 73% for 1.0871x. The odds for 1.0410 are there. But it would be very hard to drop the 55 pips average, per day. With 9 days to go. Its past mid month now. London closed below 929 and 935 R. London also closed higher than yesterday. Bears need to make a decisive move, or go home. The drop earlier in London did look like it was real. It didnt follow through with 0877 and 71. PA is back to 0929 and 0935. Earlier it was higher. I still think 1.0929/0994 is...
A lot depends on this catalyst for either direction. My 1.0411 needs help like this. I dont know if its gonna point in my direction. If it does, it would be sweet.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,731
  • Mar 18, 2025 2:59pm Mar 18, 2025 2:59pm
I dont know the direction FOMC will take pa. The eu target is larger than the GU.. X marks the spot if FOMC turns pa over to the bears. under 1.26 see chart. About 400 pips if FOMC pushes it down. But it would need to retake the 200 day, and 2680 on the week. That would be a trend change. Time line is before the month ends
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,732
  • Mar 18, 2025 3:20pm Mar 18, 2025 3:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
I dont know the direction FOMC will take pa. The eu target is larger than the GU.. X marks the spot if FOMC turns pa over to the bears. under 1.26 see chart. About 400 pips if FOMC pushes it down. But it would need to retake the 200 day, and 2680 on the week. That would be a trend change. Time line is before the month ends {image}
ditto on the eu with the 200 day and also 0736. Those are in the way of 1.0411
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,733
  • Mar 18, 2025 7:40pm Mar 18, 2025 7:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
Things can change. 1.0926.6 may attract. The SOS being below 934 and 929. When below those things can change. 877 and -871 can change things also. But it may run out of calendar first. 1.0411 will expire when out of calender {image}
It may be trying..
If 929 34 become R, it may attempt to flip. But to fall, 0871 needs to give up
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,734
  • Mar 18, 2025 9:51pm Mar 18, 2025 9:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}It may be trying.. If 929 34 become R, it may attempt to flip. But to fall, 0871 needs to give up {image}
They still hold out. The odds are about 73% pa will will reach 0872 this week. It can go to the 0984 area first. I just planned on pa not going to far past 0934 29. Its plain to see pa is above these. A stop loss is a must, unless the chance of rising another 50/70 pips is ok. I usually dont look at indicators. In this case the week 73 and day 76 RSI is above 70.
All will likely dependent on FOMC. I doubt a cut is in hand. If given a chance I will tp some at 1.0872
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,735
  • Mar 19, 2025 2:04am Mar 19, 2025 2:04am
918-920 is a good entry point for me for a long position towards 950 or even higher.
E/U
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,736
  • Mar 19, 2025 2:58am Mar 19, 2025 2:58am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} SL moved to break even! Next try near 1.10 if this level breaks
Have closed.
  • #121,737
  • Mar 19, 2025 3:12am Mar 19, 2025 3:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} They still hold out. The odds are about 73% pa will will reach 0872 this week. It can go to the 0984 area first. I just planned on pa not going to far past 0934 29. Its plain to see pa is above these. A stop loss is a must, unless the chance of rising another 50/70 pips is ok. I usually dont look at indicators. In this case the week 73 and day 76 RSI is above 70. All will likely dependent on FOMC. I doubt a cut is in hand. If given a chance I will tp some at 1.0872 {image}
Missed 0871.5 last hour. 1.0411 has about the same 73% odds for the month. Over the last 5 years. So it still has decent odds to reach 0871.5. There may be a bounce there, if lost. I personally will not be longing. I will add toward 1.0411.. By then things will be looking bearish again. But it may bounce trying to cross 410..386 is another target that may have more power. I may tweak some later
I honestly thought this drop would happen yesterday. But its more likely Wednesday or Thursday in that 73% number
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,738
  • Mar 19, 2025 3:27am Mar 19, 2025 3:27am
Quoting DMA Trader
918-920 is a good entry point for me for a long position towards 950 or even higher. E/U
out of longs -15p loss
I think I could have closed on BE 920 area but will short if it gets there and increase my short
But for the short will be a tight SL since I am already short

So now naked short.

We have a few hours to stay below 920 for a bigger move down to at least 850 but this one was quite big.
3:30 hours if we stay above 920

But since it's FED ....
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,739
  • Mar 19, 2025 3:31am Mar 19, 2025 3:31am
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,740
  • Mar 19, 2025 5:08am Mar 19, 2025 5:08am
Since price came less than 2 pips from 851.5. I will just except it as a win. Since 871.5 can support. I do have ys1 at 934, and heavy interest at 929. I have several other things in the 984 area. If i accept that near miss on 851.5, where it can support. There is still a limited amount of time pa can reach the 984 area and it act as R, with enough time to reach 411. I dont want to get screwed. I know 984 attracts, but its possible 929 and 934 is cock blocking enough. I left some pending shorts up there 975+ into 1.100x. i will mainly watch if FOMC gets it there for a entry. If it makes it there today. If I dont get stopped out. I plan to target 411 this month. Starting will 871.5 again. My problem being 934 29 area blocking. Its been to 954. I'm including that in this area. I think 871.5 will happen this week, and by the same rules 411 this month. What I dont have a finger on is, will 984 happen first. Its so close...
Regardless of making 984. 871.5 for the week, and 411 for the month I target. I put those odds at 73% based on 5yr pa. If it went to 984.. i will be loaded for bear
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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