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The PriceBob Strategy

  • #281
  • Mar 18, 2025 1:26pm Mar 18, 2025 1:26pm
Quoting turnip15
As mentioned before I am looking at UK and US Mebobs on the SP500 ( keeps it simple and only one data feed to pay for the Futures - if I tried dax as well that would be extra cost for dax feed) Seems UK was okay and US mebob was not so good today. Putting twenty of these pages together going forward. Blue - I can also look at 5 min OR breakout on same charts - why do you torment me with more homework {image}
Good plan. I'm going to go back and look over more past data. See if fixed targets work better and moving the stop to BE after x points etc etc
  • #282
  • Mar 18, 2025 1:54pm Mar 18, 2025 1:54pm
Quoting turnip15
As mentioned before I am looking at UK and US Mebobs on the SP500 ( keeps it simple and only one data feed to pay for the Futures - if I tried dax as well that would be extra cost for dax feed) Seems UK was okay and US mebob was not so good today. Putting twenty of these pages together going forward. Blue - I can also look at 5 min OR breakout on same charts - why do you torment me with more homework {image}
Hahaha lo siento T !!

Just a after a or ...
Keeps our minds sahrp!
(Misspell on purpose)

I hope I have your report on my desk by the EOD !

Cheers T !
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #283
  • Mar 18, 2025 3:16pm Mar 18, 2025 3:16pm
First off i have to give a to Vidvad for starting this thread, nice and clean and simply (fairly) and the clips are probably better than sliced bread
I hardly post anything and i one would be very hard pressed to find any trace of me online.
Maybe it's the avg age of (some) of the posters on this thread but i kinda feel at home with my official age of 61 (despite a lack of proper gray hair )
I have done my share of programming and currently trade on the MT5 platform (no arguing about taste ).

Currently i'm writing a bar coloring tool that colors the IB and OB so that it is easier to spot the IOI, IOO and II. I'll share the code once i'm happy with it.
However, i'm wondering whether it makes sense to use decimals whilst looking for the particular bars, or just use 1 decimal.
Why? Simple if it looks like a IOI but is off by 0.17 should we not still look at it as an IOI? Personally i would strip the decimals but i would appreciate some additional views on this.

Looking fwd to participating and sharing ..
Cheers,
  • #284
  • Mar 18, 2025 3:27pm Mar 18, 2025 3:27pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} The only way I have ever tested anything.. is by going through the historical charts on the 5 minute bar by bar.. my last test was three or four years of the ES testing the 1hr initial balance with a close outside of that IB and the probabilities of rage expansion from there.. As for the OR.. I do know of some that use the 5 minutes successfully.. I have used the 15 minute OR successfully. And the old pit traders use the 30 second OR.. As we all know it's more likely just a matter of trade management risk etc... I will be sitting down at...
Thank you bluesteele for sharing this.

Could you tell me what are your parameters when it comes to take profit when you get an OR break? It would be very helpful
  • #285
  • Edited 4:18pm Mar 18, 2025 3:44pm | Edited 4:18pm
Quoting Andy1trades
{quote} Interesting, thanks for sharing. Do you trade them in the same way as the MEBOB method, ie enter on confirmed closed bar that breaks the 5min candle?
You are welcome buddy. I trade on 1 min charts and enter by the break of the range. SL mid of range, TP 2.5 and move to BE 1:1.
I only trade the first 30 min, thats it! Only take one trade per ticker, so say 1. trade is over, no more trading on that ticker. Also no trades Friday, as the market range more...

PC

PS: The sharp eye will note that the losing trade on UBER ranged back and forth exactly within yesterdays 5M opening breakout range, probably not a coincidence?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: TSLA.png Size: 28 KB
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Less is more...
  • #286
  • Mar 18, 2025 4:11pm Mar 18, 2025 4:11pm
Today's MeBob review

Inserted Video
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #287
  • Mar 18, 2025 9:23pm Mar 18, 2025 9:23pm
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} You are welcome buddy. I trade on 1 min charts and enter by the break of the range. SL mid of range, TP 2.5 and move to BE 1:1. I only trade the first 30 min, thats it! Only take one trade per ticker, so say 1. trade is over, no more trading on that ticker. Also no trades Friday, as the market range more... PC PS: The sharp eye will note that the losing trade on UBER ranged back and forth exactly within yesterdays 5M opening breakout range, probably not a coincidence? {image} {image} {image}
Great stuff PipCruiser ! Love the charts and your approach !
Kudos...

Cheers
Blue
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #288
  • Mar 18, 2025 9:57pm Mar 18, 2025 9:57pm
Quoting fream1
{quote} Thank you bluesteele for sharing this. Could you tell me what are your parameters when it comes to take profit when you get an OR break? It would be very helpful
Hola Fream1,,

Espero que todo esté bien y gracias por tu pregunta.

I had planned on making a post(s) in regards to this.. But I will say let me say at mi corazon yo soy un momentum trader..
I am a momentum trader..thats my sweet spot.. Traditional scalping is not my deal,,nor swing trading..
I aim to capture chunks of daily moves...and a big part of that is using the 8 ema channel... I got that idea from
Laura and her thread Roadmap in the systems forum... I will say now I think that is one of the best threads on FF and her journal.

Laura is a very smart talented trader... Alot to learn from her posts. And I have posted in the past a few times about the 8ema channel.
But to be honest I haven't wanted to draw much attention to it... I will make this all relevant soon with chart examples etc.

I consider many things in my head when the opening bell rings and much of it is Al Brooks based and that ties into the 8ema channel
and how I use it as a gauge of momentum and as a dynamic TP tool and as well for entries...(another story)

Follow along the thread and I will post more on this subject as it is so important. SO I am glad you asked

But at a minimum I am looking for 10pts with my initial position... I want to "ring the register" asap
then I am looking to peel off at 20 and the last 3rd a runner to 40+ pts...and that will be decided by time and momentum. (8 ema)

I don't like to just give a simple answer lol... like 10-20 and 40+pts.... since you asked my "parameters"

My parameters IMO need some explanation to be understood fully,,,,,

So I will leave it at that for tonight and I will post charts and more explanations...
Despite my seemingly lengthy reply I do like to keep things simple .

Buenas Noches
Blue
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #289
  • Mar 18, 2025 10:07pm Mar 18, 2025 10:07pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote}and a big part of that is using the 8 ema channel... I got that idea from Laura and her thread Roadmap in the systems forum... I will say now I think that is one of the best threads on FF
I agree 100%. If there were an FF "Hall of Fame" forum, her Roadmap Thread and Journal Thread would have to be the first inductees.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #290
  • Mar 18, 2025 11:13pm Mar 18, 2025 11:13pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Hola Fream1,, Espero que todo esté bien y gracias por tu pregunta. I had planned on making a post(s) in regards to this.. But I will say let me say at mi corazon yo soy un momentum trader.. I am a momentum trader..thats my sweet spot.. Traditional scalping is not my deal,,nor swing trading.. I aim to capture chunks of daily moves...and a big part of that is using the 8 ema channel... I got that idea from Laura and her thread Roadmap in the systems forum... I will say now I think that is one of the best threads on FF and her journal. Laura...
Thank you very much for your reply bluesteele, I look forward to seeing your next posts!
  • #291
  • Mar 19, 2025 2:13am Mar 19, 2025 2:13am
I've been trading the first 5min ORB on nasdaq for a while now with great success. The only issue I have is with fakeouts. It can break the ORB and then immediately reverse, and I havent figured out a good way to account for this other than risk management. Also keeping the charts completely clean with no indicators. But the success rate is quite high and quite quick. So any ideas on fixing the fakeout problem would be a great help.
  • #292
  • Edited 5:36am Mar 19, 2025 5:04am | Edited 5:36am
Guys I had some DMs regarding how I trade the 5M ORB, I will start another thread later in order not to mess up Vidvads great thread here.

PC

Here it is: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5m-orb-trading
Less is more...
  • #293
  • Mar 19, 2025 5:06am Mar 19, 2025 5:06am
UK session Mebob on SP500
One 5 minute ORB ( Bluesteele)
And two Mebobs -one long one short during my two hour session.
Back for NY open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #294
  • Mar 19, 2025 5:19am Mar 19, 2025 5:19am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} I agree 100%. If there were an FF "Hall of Fame" forum, her Roadmap Thread and Journal Thread would have to be the first inductees.
Like you, in her journal she set an exercise to stick to the rules regarding breaks of channel for opening and closing trades. Add some skin to the game and many will find just how quickly the rational mind is attacked by fear and greed etc. Don't dismiss fear and, especially greed, as easily vanquished demons. They are always there, looking for a way in the back door (if not already resident.)
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #296
  • Mar 19, 2025 7:32am Mar 19, 2025 7:32am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} what about adding a filter like one below. 1. A moving average...only long break above MA, short below. 2. Longs only if price is above overnight range, shorts below, careful if overnight range is tight and price still within. 3. Futures open price - is price above or below, same logic.
And this is where most systems threads at FF jump the shark. Nothing personal Danger-Mouse, but this post leads to a path 100% opposed to what we're doing here.

Read Post 1 and 2.

The introduction of anything other than a fixed bar reference or price action on the 5 minute bars is not part of this thread.

No filters.

Anyone who feels they can never trust his or her ability to learn to read price and instead must rely on indicators to supplant judgement can go to any of the thousands of systems threads available here at FF.

This is a Filter Free Zone.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #297
  • Mar 19, 2025 7:54am Mar 19, 2025 7:54am
Quoting MoochMooch
I've been trading the first 5min ORB on nasdaq for a while now with great success. The only issue I have is with fakeouts. It can break the ORB and then immediately reverse, and I havent figured out a good way to account for this other than risk management. Also keeping the charts completely clean with no indicators. But the success rate is quite high and quite quick. So any ideas on fixing the fakeout problem would be a great help.
In my journal here at FF I refer to my "roulette" or "Gonzalo" method. It isn't an ORB method but it is quite similar in that it trades breakouts of ranges, the rnages are based on time intervals, and the size of the interval based on volatility.

The only way I've found is, as you mention, money management. Simply take your loss when a quick reversal occurs. Use position size to your advantage if you can. For example, instead of trading a full sized NQ, you can size down using MNQ.

I also found I had a better win rate when simply riding out the reversal because the initial break on the NQ for my approach often was the so-called "right direction." But the drawdowns were uncomfortable.

One observation on the NQ, if a breakout of a range quickly reverses, especially if it occurs at a previous daily or weekly OHLC, then it is usuually bets to SAR with price, as the "breakout" wasn't a breakout, but a test.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #298
  • Mar 19, 2025 8:06am Mar 19, 2025 8:06am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} And this is where most systems threads at FF jump the shark. Nothing personal Danger-Mouse, but this post leads to a path 100% opposed to what we're doing here. Read Post 1 and 2. The introduction of anything other than a fixed bar reference or price action on the 5 minute bars is not part of this thread. No filters. Anyone who feels they can never trust his or her ability to learn to read price and instead must rely on indicators to supplant judgement can go to any of the thousands of systems threads available here at FF. This is a Filter...
Off the rails indeed .. Speaking for myself this is probably the biggest trap created by the improved infrastructure due to computers etc. Adding all kinds of 'stuff' to charts is done because it can be .. it has become too easy to muck everything up, eye-candy does not equal better trade performance!
I was already working on on a couple of tools but have decided to not go there this time around. First make it work manually and then, maybe, add some tools.
Manual practice will register much better than glancing over the pictures created by tools .. we all (~95%?) go like " looks good so lets put it on" without doing the proper due diligence .. but it takes effort and dedication, not something that can be found in abundance anymore.

Excellent call Vidvad to keep things nice and tidy.
  • #299
  • Mar 19, 2025 8:06am Mar 19, 2025 8:06am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} And this is where most systems threads at FF jump the shark. Nothing personal Danger-Mouse, but this post leads to a path 100% opposed to what we're doing here. Read Post 1 and 2. The introduction of anything other than a fixed bar reference or price action on the 5 minute bars is not part of this thread. No filters. Anyone who feels they can never trust his or her ability to learn to read price and instead must rely on indicators to supplant judgement can go to any of the thousands of systems threads available here at FF. This is a Filter...
Ok, no probs...feel free to minimize
  • #300
  • Mar 19, 2025 8:10am Mar 19, 2025 8:10am
In this thread, we are exploring the use of the following:

Defining set ups based on patterns observed to repeat with regularity on the 5 minute candle chart, primary market of interest is the S&P 500.

Fixed bar entry methods based on the range of a particular 5 minute bar between 9:30 AM and 3:00 PM Eastern time, with the primary such bar known as the MeBob, which is the 5 minute bar that opens at 10:05 AM and closes at 10:10 AM Eastern. Opening Range Breakouts is an example of an acceptable fixed bar strategy.

Support and Resistance levels such as previous daily OHLC, previous weekly OHLC, the current day's OHLC, and intraday swing highs and lows on the 5 minute bar chart.

We do not use any derivative indicators to define or "filter" set ups. The presence of a moving averge is the choice of the individual trader. It can be used as a reference tool or sight aid. It is not to be used in this thread as a "filter," e.g. I will only take a long MeBob trade if price is above the xyz moving average" is not acceptable in this thread. It is acceptable in your own trading or in your own thread, but that is not how we want to approach the solving the problem of trading by price alone in this thread. One can note price pulled back to the moving average of their choice, however, if a trade set up is being discussed, the set up must exist independently of the presence of the moving average, i.e. two traders trading the same defined set up would both have taken the same trade based on price, even though one trader had the MA plotted on his graph and the other trader doesn't even know what a moving average is.

Filter Free Zone:

Note the difference between the following two trading entry rules:

1) I go long when a 5 minute bar closes above the open, and I sell short when a 5 minute bar closes below the open.

2) I go long when a 5 minute bar closes above the open, but only if price ia above the MA, and I sell short when a 5 minute bar closes below the open, but only if price is below the MA.

Rule one is the sort we are looking to develop here in this thread. Rule two might be a fine rule, but it belongs in a different thread.

I am not anti-indicator. I don't want to ban indicators from chart pics shared in this thread (within reason). But for the purposes of this thread, we are not at all interested in derivative indicators as either filters or as variables used to define entry set ups.

Thank you for your consideration.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
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