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  • #121,701
  • Mar 17, 2025 8:58pm Mar 17, 2025 8:58pm
Quoting gatorinla;15184414[S
]If pa dont stay sustained above 1.0906..[/s] It losses some bullish edge. Of course a LL today may be a bearish sign. This area can be a decent R and a possible top I doubt 0835 is coming today.. But if it does, it may support, or be a b/o drop sustained below.
New numbers for a day trade. A break of -0876 sustained may be a bearish breakout. What makes it important is pa may be at a possible high point 0926/35. There is yr1 at 0935, another past Nov high 0937. high. This leg is slightly above the past one at 937. The pp associated with 935 at 635 610
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  • #121,702
  • Mar 17, 2025 9:16pm Mar 17, 2025 9:16pm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,703
  • Mar 17, 2025 9:21pm Mar 17, 2025 9:21pm
PA will usually run back to 0925. If it does not, and breaks below sustained 0876. That could be the real deal. -835 is stronger it can also support. st 0899 can support when above.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,704
  • Mar 17, 2025 10:45pm Mar 17, 2025 10:45pm
In 2007. before the crash in 2008. We had a problem with liquidity. Eventually it led to July 2008. Years later congress grilled Bernanke. I wonder if this is why Buffet cashed out. If equities rise again. The bond rates will be close to where they were in 2007. If they dont rise again, we were near the same place already. I'm already hearing about a car loan bubble. If you lose a job. Car loans get worse. I assume home loans are in the mix to a degree. Tariffs could push this over the edge.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2009/10/10/788333/-

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,705
  • Mar 17, 2025 11:22pm Mar 17, 2025 11:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
In 2007. before the crash in 2008. We had a problem with liquidity. Eventually it led to July 2008. Years later congress grilled Bernanke. I wonder if this is why Buffet cashed out. If equities rise again. The bond rates will be close to where they were in 2007. If they dont rise again, we were near the same place already. I'm already hearing about a car loan bubble. If you lose a job. Car loans get worse. I assume home loans are in the mix to a degree. Tariffs could push this over the edge. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2009/10/10/788333/-...
AI said monitor it.

In 2007, the Federal Reserve extended approximately $500 billion to foreign central banks to alleviate a global liquidity crisis. At that time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered around 5%, and the EUR/USD exchange rate was on the rise. Today, we observe certain parallels, including rising consumer debt and potential liquidity constraints, prompting concerns about a recurrence of a 2008-like financial crisis.
Current Indicators of USD Liquidity and Economic Stress:

  1. Household Debt and Delinquencies:

    1. Total household debt increased by $93 billion (0.5%) in Q4 2024, reaching $18.04 trillion. Federal Reserve Bank of New York
    2. Serious credit card delinquencies (90+ days past due) are projected to rise for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, reaching 2.76%. TransUnion Newsroom

  2. Corporate Default Risk:

    1. The leveraged loan default rate is expected to remain elevated, ending 2025 between 7.3% and 8.2%. Moody's

  3. Liquidity Conditions:

    1. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) has decreased reserves by approximately $2 trillion since its peak in 2022. Despite this, financial markets currently perceive sufficient liquidity, allowing the Fed to continue its balance sheet drawdown into 2025. Reuters

  4. Impact of Tariffs and Inflation:

    1. Lower-income consumers are facing financial strain due to persistent inflation and tariff uncertainties, leading to reduced savings and increased delinquencies in student loans and FHA mortgages. MarketWatch

Potential Triggers for a Financial Crisis:

  1. Consumer Debt: Elevated levels of household debt and rising delinquency rates could constrain consumer spending, a critical driver of the U.S. economy.
  2. Corporate Defaults: High default rates in leveraged loans may signal broader corporate financial distress, potentially impacting employment and investment.
  3. Monetary Policy and Liquidity: Ongoing quantitative tightening reduces liquidity, which, if coupled with external shocks, could lead to financial instability.
  4. Trade Policies: Uncertainties stemming from tariffs may disrupt global trade, affecting corporate earnings and economic growth.

Conclusion:
While current economic indicators show some stress, such as rising consumer delinquencies and corporate default risks, they do not yet mirror the systemic vulnerabilities observed in 2007-2008. However, the combination of high debt levels, potential liquidity constraints, and external economic pressures warrants close monitoring, as these factors could converge to trigger financial instability reminiscent of the previous crisis.
Concerns Rise Over Consumer Debt and Bank Strains Amid Inflation and Tariff Uncertainties
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d....wsj.com&sz=32WSJ
Consumers Keep Bailing Out the Economy. Now They Might Be Maxed Out.
6 days ago
https://images.wsj.net/im-23482290?resize=500&size=1.33
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d...atch.com&sz=32MarketWatch
Banks are feeling the strain as lower-income consumers struggle with inflation and tariff chaos
3 days ago

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,706
  • Mar 18, 2025 1:14am Mar 18, 2025 1:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah its holding up because he hasn't run his mouth today, yet. You just dont know when he will tweet some crazy shit. That instability of people getting burned after planning. Will keep money outflowing to other markets So far he stopped at a 10% drop. But he can only shut his mouth for a limited amount of time. He need to feel he is the center of attention. He will open his mouth and burn us again.

900 support for EUR bulls
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,707
  • Mar 18, 2025 1:45am Mar 18, 2025 1:45am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 900 support for EUR bulls
Line in the sand for EUR bulls 900 big support
I am going to play the long side if we stay above
adding above 913
-----

if we break 900 we may see today/tomorrow 830.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,708
  • Mar 18, 2025 3:23am Mar 18, 2025 3:23am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Line in the sand for EUR bulls 900 big support I am going to play the long side if we stay above adding above 913 ----- if we break 900 we may see today/tomorrow 830.
Out of all longs again. this 950-1.1 should be a big resistance medium term.
buying back 925/930 if possible.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,709
  • Mar 18, 2025 3:54am Mar 18, 2025 3:54am
ATM at 1.0954. I started selling toward 1.1
I need pa back below 1.0934 an 929 and so forth below 21.5 899 876
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  • #121,710
  • Mar 18, 2025 4:46am Mar 18, 2025 4:46am
Quoting gatorinla
ATM at 1.0954. I started selling toward 1.1 I need pa back below 1.0934 an 929 and so forth below 21.5 899 876
I tried one with tight SL relying on 1.0955 and Anything can happen...
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  • #121,711
  • Mar 18, 2025 4:57am Mar 18, 2025 4:57am
Quoting gatorinla
EU 2025 pivots The close was between PP and S1 First 6 month 2025 Q1 2025 The close is near center pp and S1 on all of these {image} {image} {image}
Lets if it gets back below to 921.5 (within the next 6 hs).. If so its below 929 and 934. As of right now it looks bullish with a 12h close above these. You never know what will happen when back below
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  • #121,712
  • Mar 18, 2025 5:02am Mar 18, 2025 5:02am
951.5 has light R value. Support above.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,713
  • Mar 18, 2025 5:14am Mar 18, 2025 5:14am
It all appears bullish here. I see this 30 min red engulfing candle after the doji. I need some larger red candles closing below 0877 to start. I'm just reading tea leaves. I dont see evidence of it falling. If/when I do see evidence, it would of already fell. We call that hindsight. So in foresight somebody will post that got in at the top. after it falls 50 pips. The point I'm making is, I dont know where the top is exactly in this case. I have a lot of things excluding the outflow telling me its close. 0929/1.1. Allow a little slippage into 1.10x.. When is this area. Find something to look for. I think it in this area any time now.
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  • #121,714
  • Mar 18, 2025 5:17am Mar 18, 2025 5:17am
I see a possible short R leg under that gray line.
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  • #121,715
  • Mar 18, 2025 5:21am Mar 18, 2025 5:21am
Back to the late eighties is coming.. Is it 980s or 880s?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,716
  • Mar 18, 2025 5:34am Mar 18, 2025 5:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Lets if it gets back below to 921.5 (within the next 6 hs).. If so its below 929 and 934. As of right now it looks bullish with a 12h close above these. You never know what will happen when back below {image}
The pheromones are at 921.5 where the tail extends
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  • #121,717
  • Mar 18, 2025 5:46am Mar 18, 2025 5:46am
back to 1982.. and holding the rest of the week below 877 may be a sign. Some smaller closes below 871.5 would impress me. These would not be good for longs. But it's bullish those same levels may support. See chart. Just know ifs it gets below 871 its harder to come back.
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The attraction to 0921.5 can make one get doubt, or even change it all. It brings pa back below a breakout.
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  • #121,718
  • Mar 18, 2025 6:48am Mar 18, 2025 6:48am
The past dont ensure the future. From the past I can see 1.0410 this month. With about a 73% chance
First stop may be 1.087x. PA needs to be below
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  • #121,719
  • Mar 18, 2025 7:44am Mar 18, 2025 7:44am
She's trying
If she gets under 871.5. Hide women and children. Shoot the dogs.
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  • #121,720
  • Mar 18, 2025 7:47am Mar 18, 2025 7:47am
Quoting gatorinla
The past dont ensure the future. From the past I can see 1.0410 this month. With about a 73% chance First stop may be 1.087x. PA needs to be below {image}
This post cleared the room..
Should I have waited for mid week before seeking 1.0871? I guess I could had. But pa was in the area it may fall. Its mid month. So its about time to seek 1.0410 ish
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