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The Swamp

  • #121,681
  • Mar 17, 2025 9:26am Mar 17, 2025 9:26am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} EA looks promising {image}
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  • #121,682
  • Mar 17, 2025 9:40am Mar 17, 2025 9:40am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I partly share the same view. Until E/U 930, I知 trying some longs, but I also have shorts that I知 holding, so I知 mostly hedging. On US equities, I think the drop is over, and we're heading up. Until now, every time US stocks rallied last week, the euro weakened. Today, I see both moving together. As long as it stays above 900, I think I have a chance to close my longs at 930. If I see 890, then I値l close them and wait again. I知 not closing the shorts yet. I値l keep them, even past the FED. On the short side, until it breaks 870, it...
EUR new HOD, so there's a chance I can exit my longs at 930.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,683
  • Mar 17, 2025 11:04am Mar 17, 2025 11:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{image}
This one worked out, although I closed early.
Pending short may be coming
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,684
  • Mar 17, 2025 11:18am Mar 17, 2025 11:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This one worked out, although I closed early. Pending short may be coming {image}
Possible top are here 1.0929/4.095x. If not here, the next best stronger place is 1.0975/1.10xx
If you miss "here". It may run back to 1.0921.5
yR1 at 0935.. interest at 1.0929.

If here dont hold. The strongest interest is probably 1.0996 or 1.0993. Below these are likely bearish to test 0929, then 0877 0702
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,685
  • Mar 17, 2025 11:19am Mar 17, 2025 11:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This one worked out, although I closed early. Pending short may be coming {image}
also manually closed mine, did not hit 930, naked short now.
let's see 905 now if it holds.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,686
  • Mar 17, 2025 11:32am Mar 17, 2025 11:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Possible top are here 1.0929/4.095x. If not here, the next best stronger place is 1.0975/1.10xx If you miss "here". It may run back to 1.0921.5 yR1 at 0935.. interest at 1.0929. If here dont hold. The strongest interest is probably 1.0996 or 1.0993. Below these are likely bearish to test 0929, then 0877 0702 {image}
We also have the FED on Wednesday, and I don't think they can cut rates with the uncertainty surrounding tariffs. I also don't think the BOE will cut. I would say that EG could also be shorted if it doesn't close above 0.843, although the chart doesn't really look like a short.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,687
  • Mar 17, 2025 11:39am Mar 17, 2025 11:39am
If pa dont stay sustained above 1.0906.. It losses some bullish edge. Of course a LL today may be a bearish sign. This area can be a decent R and a possible top
I doubt 0835 is coming today.. But if it does, it may support, or be a b/o drop sustained below.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,688
  • Mar 17, 2025 11:41am Mar 17, 2025 11:41am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} We also have the FED on Wednesday, and I don't think they can cut rates with the uncertainty surrounding tariffs. I also don't think the BOE will cut. I would say that EG could also be shorted if it doesn't close above 0.843, although the chart doesn't really look like a short.
The gbp should be softer because of outflow
During Asia if eu pa is sustained below 0876, that can be a b/o drop.
No matter how it looks now. To fall, a start is a slip below 0906. That just makes it neutral, until its below 0835 in a capitulating fall. 'Pa is above 1.0606, the bull side into 0929 35 R
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,689
  • Mar 17, 2025 11:55am Mar 17, 2025 11:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The gbp should be softer because of outflow During Asia if eu pa is sustained below 0876, that can be a b/o drop. No matter how it looks now. To fall, a start is a slip below 0906. That just makes it neutral, until its below 0835 in a capitulating fall. 'Pa is above 1.0606, the bull side into 0929 35 R
The GU may be setting up the better short.
GBP/USD (GU): With UK equities experiencing continued outflows and investor sentiment toward the UK remaining weak, GBP/USD could face further downside pressure. If the U.S. continues to see increased capital inflows, it may strengthen the dollar further against the pound. Any break below key support levels, particularly near the 1.2650 region, could trigger additional selling.
EUR/GBP (EG): Given that European markets are attracting capital while UK markets are seeing outflows, EUR/GBP is likely to trend higher in the near term. This reflects a relative preference for European assets over UK assets. However, if the Bank of England signals a more hawkish stance or economic conditions improve in the UK, we could see a temporary pullback.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,690
  • Mar 17, 2025 12:31pm Mar 17, 2025 12:31pm
adding back longs at 910 and also at 890 area if we get there.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,691
  • Mar 17, 2025 12:34pm Mar 17, 2025 12:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The GU may be setting up the better short. GBP/USD (GU): With UK equities experiencing continued outflows and investor sentiment toward the UK remaining weak, GBP/USD could face further downside pressure. If the U.S. continues to see increased capital inflows, it may strengthen the dollar further against the pound. Any break below key support levels, particularly near the 1.2650 region, could trigger additional selling. EUR/GBP (EG): Given that European markets are attracting capital while UK markets are seeing outflows, EUR/GBP is likely...
I think tomorrow is an important day -> Trump is speaking with Russia, and then we have the Fed.
The stock market is holding up well, and that should help the USD, but there are many factors to consider.
I still believe that both GBP and USD will perform better than EUR over the next few months, but who knows in the short term.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,692
  • Mar 17, 2025 1:18pm Mar 17, 2025 1:18pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I think tomorrow is an important day -> Trump is speaking with Russia, and then we have the Fed. The stock market is holding up well, and that should help the USD, but there are many factors to consider. I still believe that both GBP and USD will perform better than EUR over the next few months, but who knows in the short term.
yeah its holding up because he hasn't run his mouth today, yet. You just dont know when he will tweet some crazy shit. That instability of people getting burned after planning. Will keep money outflowing to other markets
So far he stopped at a 10% drop. But he can only shut his mouth for a limited amount of time. He need to feel he is the center of attention. He will open his mouth and burn us again.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,693
  • Mar 17, 2025 1:28pm Mar 17, 2025 1:28pm
The Dow is testing the 200 Day from under.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,694
  • Mar 17, 2025 1:54pm Mar 17, 2025 1:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
If pa dont stay sustained above 1.0906.. It losses some bullish edge. Of course a LL today may be a bearish sign. This area can be a decent R and a possible top I doubt 0835 is coming today.. But if it does, it may support, or be a b/o drop sustained below.
for now we are staying above 0906
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #121,695
  • Mar 17, 2025 2:01pm Mar 17, 2025 2:01pm
The cad broke down from 4364.. So it may be resistance now. Tuesday 4300 may attract. Possible short 4364 to 4300
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,696
  • Mar 17, 2025 3:35pm Mar 17, 2025 3:35pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} for now we are staying above 0906
Yeah, it wasn't top on the list of probabilities. But if this 0929/35 area holds. Then those can come into play quickly. Trend wise if it does breaks up. The 0996 could be even tougher than the 0929/38 area. Because its about 3X stronger in the queue
What 0935 has that 0996 does not is YR1.
Also a older high.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,697
  • Mar 17, 2025 3:51pm Mar 17, 2025 3:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah, it wasn't top on the list of probabilities. But if this 0929/35 area holds. Then those can come into play quickly. Trend wise if it does breaks up. The 0996 could be even tougher than the 0929/38 area. Because its about 3X stronger in the queue What 0935 has that 0996 does not is YR1. Also a older high.
In case here 0926/35 area, or 1.0975/1.10x make a double top. If the right leg is shorter it gains some %
A double top pattern where the right peak is lower than the left peak is often considered a weaker version of the traditional double top. It suggests early selling pressure and potential bearish continuation. Here are some percentage stats based on historical data and backtesting studies

  1. Breakout Success Rate Standard double tops: 65-80% probability of price decline after neckline break.
  2. Lower right peak: 70-85% success rate (higher reliability due to increased bearish pressure).
  3. Average Decline After Breakout
    Standard double tops: 15-25% from the neckline.Lower right peak: 20-30%, since the sellers show more aggression.
  4. False Breakout Rate
    Standard double top: ~20-35%Lower right peak: ~15-25% (more conviction behind the move).
  5. Time to Completion
    Typically takes 1.5 to 3 times the distance between peaks to reach a target.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,698
  • Mar 17, 2025 6:42pm Mar 17, 2025 6:42pm
Key Failure & Success Levels for Double Tops
1. Right Peak Height Relative to Left Peak
0% to -2% lower → Highest failure rate (~50% or more may break back upward).
-3% to -7% lower → Sweet spot for successful double top (~70-85% breakdown probability).
-8% or more lower → More aggressive selling, often an early breakdown before neckline break.
2. Pullback from the First Peak (Depth to "Crotch")
Shallow pullback (<30% retrace from peak) → High failure rate (~60%), price often makes new highs.
Medium pullback (30-60% retrace from peak) → Sweet spot (~70-80% breakdown success) if the second top is lower.
Deep pullback (below 60% retrace, near neckline) → May already be confirming the bearish move.
3. Rejection at the Right Peak
If the right peak retraces 55-75% of the drop from the left peak, the double top is most likely to confirm.
If it retraces more than 78.6%, failure risk increases, as buyers regain control.
Final Threshold Before Double Top Fails
If price breaks above the left peak by 1-2%, the double top has likely failed.
If price stays under left peak and breaks the neckline with high volume, the pattern has confirmed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,699
  • Mar 17, 2025 7:02pm Mar 17, 2025 7:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
Key Failure & Success Levels for Double Tops 1. Right Peak Height Relative to Left Peak 0% to -2% lower → Highest failure rate (~50% or more may break back upward). -3% to -7% lower → Sweet spot for successful double top (~70-85% breakdown probability). -8% or more lower → More aggressive selling, often an early breakdown before neckline break. 2. Pullback from the First Peak (Depth to "Crotch") Shallow pullback (<30% retrace from peak) → High failure rate (~60%), price often makes new highs. Medium pullback (30-60% retrace...
Let's apply these double top failure vs. success levels to EUR/USD.
Recent EUR/USD Price Action & Double Top Potential
Left Peak: 1.0946-1.0955 (March 14 high)
Pullback ("Crotch" or neckline area): Around 1.0876 (recent support & weekly volume POC)
Right Peak: 1.0935-1.0940 (tested March 15-18)
Analyzing Right Peak vs. Left Peak
Right peak is about 0.1% to 0.2% lower than the left peak (very minor difference).
This small drop (below 2%) means a higher chance of failure, meaning price may push above the left peak.
The key level to confirm the pattern is a close below 1.0876, which aligns with major volume levels.
Sweet Spot Confirmation Zone
If EUR/USD fails to break 1.0946-1.0955 and falls under 1.0876, the double top could confirm.
If it retraces 55-75% of the drop from 1.0955 to 1.0876, the pattern aligns with a successful double top.
Failure & Bullish Risk
If EUR/USD closes above 1.0955, the double top fails, and price could target 1.0975 1.1000 or higher.
If price hangs around 1.0900-1.0935 too long, buyers may regain control.
Verdict:
Bearish case: If price stays under 1.0946 and breaks below 1.0876 with volume, we could see a drop toward 1.0836 or even 1.0800 (your major support levels).
Bullish risk: If it closes above 1.0955, double top is invalid, and a push toward 1.1000+ is likely.
Key Levels to Watch
1.0955: If price closes above, pattern likely fails.
1.0876: If price closes below, double top confirms.
1.0836: Long-term fib level, potential first major support.
1.0935: Year R1 it and 1.0929 can be major resistance.
That out flow needs to equalize to fall

Without anything else showing. PA didnt retract that far lower atm.
Given this bullish momentum and the shallow consolidation, the likelihood of a double top pattern forming is reduced. Instead, the pair may continue its upward trajectory, especially if it breaks above the immediate resistance levels.home.saxo
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Resistance: 1.0930-1.0950Support Levels: 1.0880 and 1.0850
Monitoring these levels will provide insights into potential bullish continuation or bearish reversal scenarios.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,700
  • Mar 17, 2025 7:22pm Mar 17, 2025 7:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Let's apply these double top failure vs. success levels to EUR/USD. Recent EUR/USD Price Action & Double Top Potential Left Peak: 1.0946-1.0955 (March 14 high) Pullback ("Crotch" or neckline area): Around 1.0876 (recent support & weekly volume POC) Right Peak: 1.0935-1.0940 (tested March 15-18) Analyzing Right Peak vs. Left Peak Right peak is about 0.1% to 0.2% lower than the left peak (very minor difference). This small drop (below 2%) means a higher chance of failure, meaning price may push above the left peak. The key level to confirm...
should the neckline be 0836?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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