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The Swamp

  • #121,661
  • Mar 17, 2025 12:37am Mar 17, 2025 12:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Anyone who says something so definitive, I'm skeptical on. {image}
Sorry, I could be wrong. What's your take? Thank you.
  • #121,662
  • Mar 17, 2025 3:41am Mar 17, 2025 3:41am
Quoting gatorinla
If you're sure about shorting. It needs to beat 906x sustained to rise. {image}
Yes, it's surprising that the euro is holding up well against the dollar, considering everything. I expected at least a minor correction today.

Probably only after it breaks 870 downward.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,663
  • Mar 17, 2025 5:41am Mar 17, 2025 5:41am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Yes, it's surprising that the euro is holding up well against the dollar, considering everything. I expected at least a minor correction today. Probably only after it breaks 870 downward.
EUR/USD (EU): Given the strong inflows into European equities, continued repatriation of U.S. investor funds into the Eurozone, and the recent outperformance of European stocks, EUR/USD is likely to remain supported in the near term. However, if U.S. equity markets stabilize and attract capital back, we could see a pullback in EUR/USD—especially near key resistance zones like 1.0935 (Yearly R1)
GBP/USD (GU): With UK equities experiencing continued outflows and investor sentiment toward the UK remaining weak, GBP/USD could face further downside pressure. If the U.S. continues to see increased capital inflows, it may strengthen the dollar further against the pound. Any break below key support levels, particularly near the 1.2675 ion, could trigger additional selling. Near 1.3048 may provide some resistance.
The EG looks very bullish. So to me, the gbp has a better chance to fall over the eu.
I think the rise in the gu and eu is repatriation. USD outflow pressure (less demand) over the fall in equities. If it blows through 1.0929/35.. The level 1.0975 1.10x area look to be the next decent short spot. 1.0929/35 allowing for some slippage can be tough
If the U.S equities markets start to rise. The GU short has more appeal over the eu to me. Based on the outflow reversing. But equities dropped 10%, They can still drop another 10%. This equity bull has been running a long time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,664
  • Mar 17, 2025 5:54am Mar 17, 2025 5:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} EUR/USD (EU): Given the strong inflows into European equities, continued repatriation of U.S. investor funds into the Eurozone, and the recent outperformance of European stocks, EUR/USD is likely to remain supported in the near term. However, if U.S. equity markets stabilize and attract capital back, we could see a pullback in EUR/USD容specially near key resistance zones like 1.0935 (Yearly R1) GBP/USD (GU): With UK equities experiencing continued outflows and investor sentiment toward the UK remaining weak, GBP/USD could face further downside...
I partly share the same view. Until E/U 930, I知 trying some longs, but I also have shorts that I知 holding, so I知 mostly hedging.

On US equities, I think the drop is over, and we're heading up. Until now, every time US stocks rallied last week, the euro weakened. Today, I see both moving together.
As long as it stays above 900, I think I have a chance to close my longs at 930. If I see 890, then I値l close them and wait again.
I知 not closing the shorts yet. I値l keep them, even past the FED.

On the short side, until it breaks 870, it doesn't make sense. Today, the support held well, and then it went straight up.
So, for now, there's nothing I can do with the short.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,665
  • Mar 17, 2025 5:55am Mar 17, 2025 5:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{image}
I followed the chart and longed. I also closed now. I dont know if it will run back to the same place or not. But I expected some trouble getting past 1.0906. Possibly allowing the attraction to 1.0971.5. Bird in hand.
It may run back to 1.0871.5 or not now. It may also do it at 0929/35 ish later if time permits
I think bulls need a 1h close above 1.0910 and 18 to continue.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,666
  • Mar 17, 2025 6:17am Mar 17, 2025 6:17am
If it runs back, 0877 supporting possible. I tend to wait for 0871.5.. A possible chance to buy there in the next 4.75 hs. 0899 also may have light support value, R when below today only
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,667
  • Mar 17, 2025 6:22am Mar 17, 2025 6:22am
I always experiment with stuff. If you like chocolate pudding. This one is decent and easy.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,668
  • Mar 17, 2025 6:58am Mar 17, 2025 6:58am
Quoting gatorinla
If it runs back, 0877 supporting possible. I tend to wait for 0871.5.. A possible chance to buy there in the next 4.75 hs. 0899 also may have light support value, R when below today only {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,669
  • Mar 17, 2025 7:20am Mar 17, 2025 7:20am
do you teach or have a social to contact someone in?
  • #121,670
  • Mar 17, 2025 7:23am Mar 17, 2025 7:23am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I partly share the same view. Until E/U 930, I’m trying some longs, but I also have shorts that I’m holding, so I’m mostly hedging. On US equities, I think the drop is over, and we're heading up. Until now, every time US stocks rallied last week, the euro weakened. Today, I see both moving together. As long as it stays above 900, I think I have a chance to close my longs at 930. If I see 890, then I’ll close them and wait again. I’m not closing the shorts yet. I’ll keep them, even past the FED. On the short side, until it breaks 870, it...
If you right about support. I hope to close shorts and buy 872 ish. 877 could support, and 871.5 attract. At least for the next 3.5 hrs
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,671
  • Mar 17, 2025 7:38am Mar 17, 2025 7:38am
The news is actually bad for the usd. But its falling. That 0871.5/77 area may bounce.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,672
  • Mar 17, 2025 7:43am Mar 17, 2025 7:43am
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,673
  • Mar 17, 2025 7:51am Mar 17, 2025 7:51am
Quoting gatorinla
The news is actually bad for the usd. But its falling. That 0871.5/77 area may bounce. {image}
I added a bit to my longs, so now the short position is twice the size of the long. All good if we go up.
Crazy to see the NY Manufacturing Index at -20.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,674
  • Mar 17, 2025 7:53am Mar 17, 2025 7:53am
Quoting gatorinla
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIuyDWzctgY
Inserted Video
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,675
  • Mar 17, 2025 8:02am Mar 17, 2025 8:02am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I added a bit to my longs, so now the short position is twice the size of the long. All good if we go up. Crazy to see the NY Manufacturing Index at -20.
E/U has already jumped. I think it's one of the indicators pointing towards job cuts or reduced working hours, quite aggressive, just like the declines over the past month.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,676
  • Edited 8:31am Mar 17, 2025 8:19am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} E/U has already jumped. I think it's one of the indicators pointing towards job cuts or reduced working hours, quite aggressive, just like the declines over the past month.
ask you ai machine what is the results on 50% tariffs on canadian steel and aluminum. It may tell you for every manufacturing job gained, 6 others are lost. Also and in the government layoffs. It adds up to millions of lost jobs in the multiples. Since its world wide. The entire world may feel it. That will not help U.S. exports or domestic demand.
The news was eu bullish. But its still has the pull to 871.5 to overcome. 899 looks to be holding support atm
I learned in 2016 you can get blindsided by the next tweet. I closed the short, but left a long pending
People who planned on retiring the last few months may have lost 10% of what they had. They may have to work longer now. That's extra labor supply in a higher inflation market. That's a disaster leading to stagflation. The cure is very high interest rates from the Fed. Or at least thats what happened in the 1980s.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,677
  • Mar 17, 2025 8:39am Mar 17, 2025 8:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ask you ai machine what is the results on 50% tariffs on canadian steel and aluminum. It may tell you for every manufacturing job gained, 6 others are lost. Also and in the government layoffs. It adds up to millions of lost jobs in the multiples. Since its world wide. The entire world may feel it. That will not help U.S. exports or domestic demand. The news was eu bullish. But its still has the pull to 871.5 to overcome. 899 looks to be holding support atm I learned in 2016 you can get blindsided by the next tweet. I closed the short, but...
11,400 people reach 65 each day. That's 342,000 per month. If the 401 k goes down. Less will retire. Add in the talk of SS cuts. This may mean older employees with the better paying jobs sticking around longer. It means more labor than the market otherwise baked in. That could drive down pay some.

  1. Daily Retirements:
    An average of 11,400 Americans turn 65 each day, marking a peak in the number of people reaching the traditional retirement age.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,678
  • Mar 17, 2025 8:46am Mar 17, 2025 8:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ask you ai machine what is the results on 50% tariffs on canadian steel and aluminum. It may tell you for every manufacturing job gained, 6 others are lost. Also and in the government layoffs. It adds up to millions of lost jobs in the multiples. Since its world wide. The entire world may feel it. That will not help U.S. exports or domestic demand. The news was eu bullish. But its still has the pull to 871.5 to overcome. 899 looks to be holding support atm I learned in 2016 you can get blindsided by the next tweet. I closed the short, but...
Well bonds are showing exactly that for now.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,679
  • Mar 17, 2025 8:52am Mar 17, 2025 8:52am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Well bonds are showing exactly that for now.
yep low rates during a drop in stock prices is not a good sign on the economy. Money is fleeing stocks, and buying bonds even as the yield falls. Thats fear.
Also the selling of usd to go to another market, or just repatriation is bad for the usd. Bonds lower, and repatriation are bad news for stock outlook
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,680
  • Mar 17, 2025 9:02am Mar 17, 2025 9:02am
Quoting LoneTrader1
EA {image}
EA looks promising
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