(binned per thread starter’s request) Trading Ideas - What works?

What I know is only about wisdom—there is no trading system that remains great forever. At some point, it excels—let’s say for how long? Seven years. Then, it collapses for the next seven years. Warren Buffett’s method or system, for example, is no longer as impressive. He waited more than 10 years before becoming a billionaire during the 1980s boom, but now he holds a lot of cash, and his CAGR has dropped significantly. Livermore was once on top, but eventually went bankrupt. Richard Dennis was a true GOAT in his prime, undefeated until now, but then faded away and went out like a dead light forever.

Those who managed to save a lot of money during their prime and be frugal in tough times (safety), were fortunate for the future - (Prophet Joseph) -

Thanks for the great post, full of valuable information. I'll forward it to my wife for her approval
Happy wife, happy life

I misread post #23 as you wanted that indicator.

I just post it on one of my own threads then. No problem.

Hi RF, Do you ever sleep?
If you can put a link on this thread to your indicator page then the indicator can be discussed there in detail.
I am interested in seeing how it looks.
Have a great trading week.
Regards
Rob

3 to 4 hours sleep at night. And I use unbelieveble many hours every day at trading issues. That is also why I can make a new robot or anything in less than an hour normally.

OK, I put the link on.

A quick search and found one from another well known forum. James 16 patterns indicator.

Here's an indicator from 2007 (still works) for MT4 that identifies the pattern you mention amongst others, you can select which ones you want to show on your chart.

After reading your message, I searched YT then Google, and only ended finding a Scalping Class Webinar from SMB they make you sign up for the day before. Turned out to be another high pressure "spend thousands to buy my indicators and alerts -- because there's no way I'm giving you anything of real value in this 2 hour time rape."

Where/how did you actually view what you were referring to, if I may ask? Thx.

We shall not use too much time on one single idea here. But I dare to post this to correct a fault and further show the confluences I use.

I put the James16-Patterns indi on a chart.

As I understand the rule for a short signal. 1st bar must be a long bar. Second bar must be a short bar. They have the highs at same level, but second bars low, must be below the first bars low. If that is right, the James indi is wrong. It is the Yellow hands. I add the settings so that you can see I did it right.

I have marked two cases of what I believe is right. The grey boxes. See how nice they catch the top of the pullback. They seems nearly to be repainting, but as I painted them manually, they are not.

Note the confluence by the MA's 34 and 100 as well as the CCI overbought.

This will be discussed further in my own thread on monday, when I release my indicator there.

Maybe not a good example, the indicator below does allow you to adjust the number of points tolerance between highs & lows in a pattern,
I set it at 20 points for M15 chart, gives maybe better results.

Hi pray

Again I have NO commercial interests with this company and was never trying to direct any trader here into any form of payment plan.
If you offer up your email address (use a spare one) and a name, you get to watch the breakdown of there 5 scalps in detail in over a 1 hour 50 minutes webinar on how they train their new traders to start training. I mean their very first trade setup they receive on day one of their internship in full detail.
Everything you need to trade them with Stats. on the setups profitability.

Its the last 10 minutes or so is just the hard sell - so skip that part if you like.

Looks awesome

SOMETHING TO PONDER IF YOU ARE LOSING OR BREAKING EVEN OR JUST FUCKINGBORED


1 ....... NEVER BE WILLING TO SELL A MARKET THATs UP ON THE DAY 2 ....... NEVER BE WILLING TO BUY A MARKET THATs DOWN ON THE DAY


SO lets say your go to currency is up or down 35pips when you log-in. Direction dont matter, its either gone up 35 or down 35

Question to yourself ????? mmmmm why thefuck am i trying to go the other way WHY !!!!???? why not go with the flow and use the 35pips as a stop or a few more

Now lets assume the ADR of said pair is 120pips its leaving you with a possible 85pips to capture, not too Shabby eh !! Hell, even 70pips is double your initial risk.

So now lets assume for the purposes of this review that we get TOTALLYFUCKED on the first 10 trades.... OMG = minus 350pips or $350

Now lets assume we only get the next 5 trades right ----- 5 x 85 = 425 or $425 so a net of $75 or if you only took the 70pips then its breakeven

Either way its not a bad result and any pair can turn at any time it dont have to keep going to its ADR. Obviously nothing works out like this over and over but it should give you something to consider if your bored taefuck
5 (javascript:void(0)

Thats how i take quite a few trades.... Warning it dont always work, strict MM required but does have a good hit rate
1 (javascript:void(0)

Not much change over weekend Guys

30 second fair value gap bounces. I wait for price to bounce off of a 30 second FVG and form another FVG. That bounce FVG is my entry.

i tried james indicator, its not working.

your grey marked area is correct.

You need to adjust the tolerance in points input, try 20 on 15m or even higher for higher timeframes.
measures the gap between the 2 highs or lows in the pattern.

He talks about the James indicator. You cannot adjust anything in that.

Please let us stop talking this indicator. OP want ideas, not endless talks about one idea.

Failed cases, especially the worst ones, are the most interesting.
high > sma(50) and highs_diff should not exceed 35 pips
W/out sma filter it's even more fun...


It should be kind of axiom: don't believe backtesting or any curve in MT4/5

Graph Analysis
The chart displays two lines:

1. Blue Line (FedFunds): Represents the Federal Reserve’s Federal Funds Rate on a daily/weekly basis.
2. Purple Line (Core Inflation YoY): Represents the year-over-year core inflation rate in the United States, excluding energy and food.

By examining historical trends (from the late 1970s–early 1980s to today), we can observe different economic cycles and how the Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy in response to inflation trends.
1. Late 1970s and Early 1980s: High Inflation

1. Core inflation (purple line) exceeded double digits (around 13-14% or higher).
2. Fed Funds (blue line) rose well above 15%, reaching peaks close to 20% to combat inflation.
3. Effect: Such an aggressive monetary tightening helped lower inflation in the following years but also triggered recessions (1980 and 1981-82).

Historical conclusion: To control inflation, the Fed maintained strongly positive real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation), reducing inflationary pressure.
2. 1990s and 2000s: Inflation Stabilization

1. Core inflation remained mostly between 2% and 3%.
2. Fed Funds fluctuated between 3% and 6%, adjusting to economic cycles (1990-91 recession, late-1990s boom, 2000 Dot-com bubble, 2001 crisis).
3. Effect: The Fed sought a balance between economic growth and price stability, using more gradual monetary policies.

Historical conclusion: In an environment of relatively low and stable inflation, interest rates remained moderate.
3. Post-2008 Crisis to 2020: Near-Zero Interest Rates

1. Core inflation hovered around 2%, with some deflationary episodes (2009).
2. Fed Funds were near zero from 2008 to 2015/16, followed by a gradual rise to around 2.5% in 2018-2019.
3. Effect: The Fed adopted ultra-expansive policies (QE, near-zero rates) to support the post-crisis recovery and later, during the Covid pandemic (2020).

Historical conclusion: With controlled inflation and the need to stimulate growth, the Fed kept interest rates very low for an extended period.
4. 2021-2023: Inflation Resurgence and Aggressive Rate Hikes

1. Core inflation (purple line) surged in 2021 due to fiscal stimulus, post-Covid recovery, supply chain disruptions, and energy price spikes.
2. Fed Funds (blue line) increased rapidly from near 0% to above 4-5% in less than a year to combat inflation.
3. Effect: The aggressive rate hikes have somewhat cooled demand, gradually slowing inflation, though core inflation remains relatively high compared to the 2% target.

Considerations and Conclusions
1. Historical Relationship Between Interest Rates and Inflation

1. When inflation rises above target, the Fed tends to tighten monetary policy (raising rates) to curb price pressures.
2. Historically, controlling inflation has often required maintaining positive real interest rates (Fed Funds > inflation) or at least bringing them closer.

2. Risk of "Over-Tightening"

1. Excessively aggressive rate hikes could trigger a recession or a marked economic slowdown.
2. In the 1980s, the Fed accepted short-term recessions to eliminate double-digit inflation.

3. Current Outlook

1. If core inflation remains above 2-3%, the Fed may keep interest rates high or even raise them further.
2. Key indicators include labor market data, wage growth, and consumer spending: if these show signs of cooling, the Fed might slow or halt rate hikes.

4. Risk Management

1. With higher rates, borrowing becomes more expensive, potentially impacting highly leveraged sectors (real estate, tech, etc.).
2. For investors, rate hikes generally favor safer fixed-income instruments (short-term bonds or inflation-linked bonds) while weighing on riskier assets, though market corrections could present opportunities.

Final Thoughts

1. The Fed's Mandate is Price Stability: When inflation rises, history shows that the Fed reacts by raising interest rates until price pressures are contained.
2. A Delicate Balance: The central bank aims to avoid deep recessions but does not hesitate to maintain tight policies if inflation remains persistent.
3. Short-to-Medium-Term Future: As long as core inflation stays above 2-3%, interest rates are likely to remain higher than in the past 15 years. A significant rate cut will only happen once the Fed is confident inflation is under control and the labor market is less overheated.

Conclusion Based on Chart Analysis and Historical Context
By comparing the Fed Funds rate (blue line) and core inflation (purple line), a recurring pattern emerges: when inflation moves away from the Federal Reserve's target, the central bank reacts decisively by raising interest rates. This principle, observed in various historical phases (from the inflation fight of the 1970s-80s to more recent crisis management), still holds true.

1. The Fed Is Willing to Sacrifice Some Growth to Reduce Inflation

1. Historically, the Fed has preferred a sharp economic correction rather than allowing inflation to become entrenched.
2. This was evident in the 1980s when real interest rates (Fed Funds – inflation) remained very high, causing recessions but drastically lowering inflation.

1. Tendency Toward Post-Shock Normalization

1. After periods of very high rates, once inflation subsides, the Fed gradually lowers rates to support recovery.
2. This was seen in the 1990s and post-2008, when rates were cut close to zero to boost economic expansion.

1. Current Situation

1. After years of extremely low rates (sometimes negative in real terms), inflation’s surge in 2021-2022 forced the Fed to adopt aggressive rate hikes.
2. Although core inflation is gradually slowing, the risk remains that it stays above target for longer than expected, which could lead the Fed to keep rates high or even raise them further.

1. Possible Future Scenario

1. If inflation stabilizes around 3-4% and the labor market remains strong, the Fed might maintain "higher-for-longer" rates (4-5%) rather than quickly cutting them.
2. A significant rate reduction will only happen when the Fed is confident inflation is sustainably moving toward 2% and wage pressures are easing.

1. Impact on Investors and the Economy

1. Higher rates dampen credit demand and leverage-based investments, potentially affecting sectors like real estate and tech with high valuations.
2. However, if inflation declines without a severe recession, markets could adjust to a new normal where moderate growth and elevated rates coexist.

In conclusion, the chart confirms that when inflation exceeds the Fed’s target, the central bank responds swiftly and decisively, even at the cost of slowing economic growth. Future rate movements will depend on how quickly core inflation returns to 2%. If inflation remains stubbornly high, we may experience prolonged periods of higher interest rates than the past decade. Conversely, a sharp decline in inflation could open the door to a more accommodative monetary policy, though a return to near-zero rates in the short term is unlikely.