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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #121
  • Edited 2:04pm Mar 1, 2025 12:30pm | Edited 2:04pm
Major Currencies M2 Supply
Inflation - Deflation Data
Jan 2025

Inserted Code
+---------+------------------+---------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+---------------------+-----------------------------+
| Currency| Country/Region   | M2 Nov 2024   | M2 Dec 2024             | M2 Jan 2025             | Monthly Growth (MoM)    | Inflation/Deflation | Notes                       |
+---------+------------------+---------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+---------------------+-----------------------------+
| CHF     | Switzerland      | —             | 972,092 M               | 969,979 M               | -0.22%                  | D                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| EUR     | Euro Area        | —             | 15,575,663 M            | 15,582,889 M            | +0.05%                  | I                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| USD     | United States    | —             | 21,549 B                | 21,561 B                | +0.06%                  | I                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| JPY     | Japan            | —             | 1,257,684 B             | 1,258,835 B             | +0.09%                  | I                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| GBP     | United Kingdom   | 3,069,877 M   | 3,081,847 M             | ?                       | +0.39%                  | I                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| CAD     | Canada           | 2,625,309 M   | 2,638,116 M             | ?                       | +0.49%                  | I                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| AUD     | Australia        | —             | —                       | —                       | -0.40                   | D                   | Data from CEICDATA          |
| NZD     | New Zealand      | —             | —                       | —                       | +0.76                   | I                   | Data from CEICDATA          |
+---------+------------------+---------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+---------------------+-----------------------------+

GBP Next Update: March 3, 2025
CAD Next Update: March 7, 2025
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #122
  • Mar 2, 2025 12:50am Mar 2, 2025 12:50am
World Money Supply M2
Jan 2025 Data
https://tradingeconomics.com/country...oney-supply-m2

Inserted Code
+-----------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+---------------------+---------+
| Country                     | Last      | Previous  | Reference | Unit                | Change  |
+-----------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+---------------------+---------+
| Swaziland                   | 24484     | 26382     | Dec-24    | SZL Million         | -7,19%  |
| Liberia                     | 230921    | 246457    | Sep-24    | LRD Million         | -6,30%  |
| Azerbaijan                  | 34752     | 36652     | Jan-25    | AZN Million         | -5,18%  |
| Serbia                      | 2551036   | 2685364   | Jan-25    | RSD Million         | -5,00%  |
| Belarus                     | 49767     | 52222     | Jan-25    | BYN Million         | -4,70%  |
| Mongolia                    | 41827275  | 43333960  | Jan-25    | MNT Million         | -3,48%  |
| Armenia                     | 3930097   | 4058650   | Jan-25    | AMD Million         | -3,17%  |
| Botswana                    | 118333    | 122195    | Nov-24    | BWP Million         | -3,16%  |
| Georgia                     | 26901047  | 27730405  | Jan-25    | GEL Thousands       | -2,99%  |
| Libya                       | 158108    | 162819    | Dec-24    | LYD Million         | -2,89%  |
| Comoros                     | 233100    | 239100    | Sep-24    | KMF Million         | -2,51%  |
| Kazakhstan                  | 38324394  | 39254671  | Jan-25    | KZT Million         | -2,37%  |
| Qatar                       | 718208    | 735477    | Dec-24    | QAR Million         | -2,35%  |
| Paraguay                    | 84510459  | 86487853  | Jan-25    | PYG Million         | -2,29%  |
| Iraq                        | 173686    | 177417    | Nov-24    | IQD Billion         | -2,10%  |
| Macedonia                   | 505821    | 515464    | Jan-25    | MKD Million         | -1,87%  |
| Latvia                      | 21494     | 21860     | Jan-25    | EUR Million         | -1,67%  |
| Dominican Republic          | 2145174   | 2181475   | Jan-25    | DOP Million         | -1,66%  |
| Angola                      | 16186903  | 16420421  | Jan-25    | AOA Million         | -1,42%  |
| Colombia                    | 820874    | 832716    | Jan-25    | COP Billion         | -1,42%  |
| Uganda                      | 31720     | 32155     | Dec-24    | UGX Billion         | -1,35%  |
| Greece                      | 247063    | 250336    | Jan-25    | EUR Million         | -1,31%  |
| Bahrain                     | 14777     | 14924     | Nov-24    | BHD Million         | -0,98%  |
| Morocco                     | 1572733   | 1587916   | Jan-25    | MAD Million         | -0,96%  |
| Romania                     | 734829    | 741796    | Jan-25    | RON Million         | -0,94%  |
| Lithuania                   | 57609     | 58107     | Jan-25    | EUR Million         | -0,86%  |
| Croatia                     | 68912     | 69500     | Jan-25    | EUR Million         | -0,85%  |
| Estonia                     | 29071     | 29318     | Jan-25    | EUR Million         | -0,84%  |
| Guatemala                   | 391906    | 395104    | Jan-25    | GTQ Million         | -0,81%  |
| Namibia                     | 157722    | 158892    | Dec-24    | NAD Million         | -0,74%  |
| Russia                      | 116590    | 117256    | Feb-25    | RUB Billion         | -0,57%  |
| Poland                      | 2458764   | 2469096   | Jan-25    | PLN Million         | -0,42%  |
| Czech Republic              | 6784818   | 6804466   | Jan-25    | CZK Million         | -0,29%  |
| Slovenia                    | 39914     | 40029     | Jan-25    | EUR Million         | -0,29%  |
| Switzerland                 | 969979    | 972092    | Jan-25    | CHF Million         | -0,22%  |
| Lesotho                     | 17306     | 17341     | Sep-24    | LSL Million         | -0,20%  |
| Costa Rica                  | 16204968  | 16236908  | Jan-25    | CRC Million         | -0,20%  |
| Senegal                     | 9543900   | 9557000   | Nov-24    | XOF Million         | -0,14%  |
| Bulgaria                    | 168128    | 168280    | Jan-25    | BGN Million         | -0,09%  |
| Tanzania                    | 37140     | 37172     | Dec-24    | TZS Billion         | -0,09%  |
| Togo                        | 2961900   | 2964200   | Nov-24    | XOF Million         | -0,08%  |
| Thailand                    | 23078     | 23089     | Dec-24    | THB Billion         | -0,05%  |
| Netherlands                 | 1120794   | 1120723   | Nov-24    | EUR Million         |  0,01%  |
| Moldova                     | 126236    | 126183    | Jan-25    | MDL Million         |  0,04%  |
| Euro Area                   | 15582889  | 15575663  | Jan-25    | EUR Million         |  0,05%  |
| United States               | 21561     | 21549     | Jan-25    | USD Billion         |  0,06%  |
| Oman                        | 24828     | 24808     | Nov-24    | OMR Million         |  0,08%  |
| Malaysia                    | 2481134   | 2478860   | Jan-25    | MYR Million         |  0,09%  |
| India                       | 64729     | 64667     | Dec-24    | INR Billion         |  0,10%  |
| Japan                       | 1258835   | 1257616   | Jan-25    | JPY Billion         |  0,10%  |
| South Africa                | 4479904   | 4473221   | Jan-25    | ZAR Million         |  0,15%  |
| Seychelles                  | 16674     | 16649     | Dec-24    | SCR Million         |  0,15%  |
| Italy                       | 1906565   | 1903303   | Dec-24    | EUR Million         |  0,17%  |
| Kuwait                      | 40707     | 40634     | Jan-25    | KWD Million         |  0,18%  |
| Pakistan                    | 36987192  | 36911570  | Dec-24    | PKR Million         |  0,20%  |
| Indonesia                   | 9232800   | 9210800   | Jan-25    | IDR Billion         |  0,24%  |
| Chile                       | 190211    | 189746    | Jan-25    | CLP Billion         |  0,25%  |
| Lebanon                     | 109310    | 109028    | Nov-24    | LBP Billion         |  0,26%  |
| Spain                       | 1591741   | 1587145   | Dec-24    | EUR Million         |  0,29%  |
| Bangladesh                  | 20408     | 20335     | Nov-24    | BDT Billion         |  0,36%  |
| Germany                     | 3910      | 3896      | Dec-24    | EUR Billion         |  0,36%  |
| United Arab Emirates        | 2278877   | 2270705   | Nov-24    | AED Million         |  0,36%  |
| United Kingdom              | 3081847   | 3069877   | Dec-24    | GBP Million         |  0,39%  |
| South Korea                 | 4157037   | 4136954   | Dec-24    | KRW Billion         |  0,49%  |
| Canada                      | 2638116   | 2625309   | Dec-24    | CAD Million         |  0,49%  |
| Austria                     | 443183    | 440888    | Dec-24    | EUR Million         |  0,52%  |
| Jordan                      | 45283     | 45035     | Dec-24    | JOD Million         |  0,55%  |
| Malta                       | 28491     | 28329     | Dec-24    | EUR Million         |  0,57%  |
| Belgium                     | 662000    | 658100    | Nov-24    | EUR Million         |  0,59%  |
| Macau                       | 783979    | 778947    | Dec-24    | MOP Million         |  0,65%  |
| Singapore                   | 833774    | 828324    | Jan-25    | SGD Million         |  0,66%  |
| Trinidad And Tobago         | 93789     | 93168     | Nov-24    | TTD Million         |  0,67%  |
| Niger                       | 1924000   | 1910700   | Nov-24    | XOF Million         |  0,70%  |
| Brunei                      | 16725     | 16600     | Oct-24    | BND Million         |  0,75%  |
| Portugal                    | 326848    | 324405    | Dec-24    | EUR Million         |  0,75%  |
| Hong Kong                   | 18458425  | 18302050  | Dec-24    | HKD Million         |  0,85%  |
| Sweden                      | 4915709   | 4872539   | Jan-25    | SEK Million         |  0,89%  |
| Slovakia                    | 91        | 90        | Dec-24    | EUR Billion         |  0,89%  |
| Taiwan                      | 64458727  | 63884877  | Jan-25    | TWD Million         |  0,90%  |
| Finland                     | 162308    | 160761    | Dec-24    | EUR Million         |  0,96%  |
| Israel                      | 1407393   | 1393499   | Dec-24    | ILS Million         |  1,00%  |
| Brazil                      | 6590081   | 6517936   | Dec-24    | BRL Million         |  1,11%  |
| Sierra Leone                | 28319     | 27998     | Aug-24    | SLL Million         |  1,15%  |
| Kenya                       | 4231      | 4180      | Dec-24    | KES Billion         |  1,22%  |
| Congo                       | 46392210  | 45815409  | Dec-24    | CDF Million         |  1,26%  |
| Ghana                       | 247762    | 244129    | Dec-24    | GHS Million         |  1,49%  |
| Luxembourg                  | 395       | 389       | Jan-25    | EUR Billion         |  1,54%  |
| China                       | 318459    | 313607    | Jan-25    | CNY Billion         |  1,55%  |
| Saudi Arabia                | 2664861   | 2619437   | Jan-25    | SAR Million         |  1,73%  |
| Belize                      | 4864      | 4780      | Dec-24    | USD Million         |  1,76%  |
| Cyprus                      | 51185     | 50284     | Dec-24    | EUR Million         |  1,79%  |
| Sri Lanka                   | 12660564  | 12436535  | Dec-24    | LKR Million         |  1,80%  |
| Iceland                     | 2193      | 2154      | Jan-25    | ISK Billion         |  1,81%  |
| Tunisia                     | 123326    | 121090    | Dec-24    | TND Thousand        |  1,85%  |
| Nigeria                     | 110972270 | 108946684 | Jan-25    | NGN Million         |  1,86%  |
| Rwanda                      | 4006      | 3932      | Dec-24    | RWF Billion         |  1,88%  |
| France                      | 3053814   | 2997220   | Dec-24    | EUR Million         |  1,89%  |
| Ireland                     | 364774    | 357946    | Dec-24    | EUR Million         |  1,91%  |
| Cape Verde                  | 254158    | 249310    | Dec-24    | CVE Million         |  1,94%  |
| Albania                     | 1073300   | 1052681   | Jan-25    | ALL Million         |  1,96%  |
| El Salvador                 | 19445     | 19070     | Dec-24    | USD Million         |  1,97%  |
| Bolivia                     | 155257990 | 152256842 | Jun-24    | BOB Thousand        |  1,97%  |
| Hungary                     | 43939     | 43086     | Dec-24    | HUF Billion         |  1,98%  |
| Bhutan                      | 236334    | 231480    | Nov-24    | BTN Million         |  2,10%  |
| Ecuador                     | 88485     | 86666     | Dec-24    | USD Million         |  2,10%  |
| Peru                        | 344028    | 336802    | Dec-24    | PEN Million         |  2,15%  |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina      | 39135     | 38275     | Dec-24    | BAM Million         |  2,25%  |
| Norway                      | 3258285   | 3183034   | Jan-25    | NOK Million         |  2,36%  |
| Burundi                     | 5712286   | 5577443   | Oct-24    | BIF Million         |  2,42%  |
| Denmark                     | 1825743   | 1780695   | Jan-25    | DKK Million         |  2,53%  |
| Egypt                       | 11636422  | 11341909  | Dec-24    | EGP Million         |  2,60%  |
| Jamaica                     | 1093067   | 1060979   | Dec-24    | JMD Million         |  3,02%  |
| Mexico                      | 15609628923|15115481443| Dec-24    | MXN Thousand        |  3,27%  |
| Gambia                      | 78596     | 75906     | Dec-24    | GMD Million         |  3,54%  |
| Djibouti                    | 227030    | 219134    | Dec-23    | DJF Million         |  3,60%  |
| Turkey                      | 17500661653|16880614659| Dec-24    | TRY Thousand        |  3,67%  |
| Uruguay                     | 614792    | 592462    | Dec-24    | UYU Million         |  3,77%  |
| Honduras                    | 567824    | 546275    | Dec-24    | HNL Million         |  3,94%  |
| Philippines                 | 18333404  | 17624904  | Dec-24    | PHP Million         |  4,02%  |
| Tajikistan                  | 45667     | 43883     | Dec-24    | TJS Thousand        |  4,07%  |
| Maldives                    | 61609     | 59199     | Jan-25    | MVR Million         |  4,07%  |
| Ivory Coast                 | 19196400  | 18353400  | Nov-24    | XOF Million         |  4,59%  |
| Zimbabwe                    | 87448957  | 83226828  | Dec-24    | ZWL Thousands       |  5,07%  |
| Ukraine                     | 3487858   | 3315458   | Dec-24    | UAH Million         |  5,20%  |
| Nicaragua                   | 214773    | 204066    | Nov-24    | NIO Million         |  5,25%  |
| Malawi                      | 5329      | 5026      | Dec-24    | MWK Billion         |  6,03%  |
| Kyrgyzstan                  | 489407    | 452545    | Dec-24    | KGS Million         |  8,15%  |
| Venezuela                   | 157237    | 144619    | Nov-24    | VES Million         |  8,72%  |
| Sao Tome And Principe       | 3012      | 2697      | Dec-24    | STN Million         | 11,68%  |
| Vietnam                     | 15998956  | 14226792  | Dec-23    | VND Billion         | 12,46%  |
| Argentina                   | 71439210  | 61783242  | Dec-24    | ARS Million         | 15,63%  |
| Guyana                      | 754       | 623       | Dec-23    | GYD Billion         | 21,03%  |
| Laos                        | 252993    | 189849    | Dec-23    | LAK Billion         | 33,26%  |
+-----------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+---------------------+---------+
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #123
  • Mar 2, 2025 10:07pm Mar 2, 2025 10:07pm
aDtr 21 Today

14 Pairs
Attached Image
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #124
  • Mar 2, 2025 11:56pm Mar 2, 2025 11:56pm
Quote
When I trade, I don’t have an agency problem; I have my neck on the line. When a bank or banker trades, it’s not his neck on the line.


Quote
My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my trading boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.


- NNT -
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #125
  • Edited Mar 8, 2025 12:21am Mar 7, 2025 3:44pm | Edited Mar 8, 2025 12:21am
Money Supply M2 Update

GBP Vs USD
Data Jan 25
+0.84% Vs +0.06%

Severe M2 inflation might slightly curb GBP's strengthening against USD, but currency movements are not solely determined by this single condition-random effects- like 'red news' also play a role but still random.

Currency movements are driven by 'the extremes, potentially chasing futures contract targets. A movement of 700 pips or even 1000 pips is not a problem for the economy because PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) is more critical for a country, except for international travel or export/import tariffs.

Note:
CAD +0.49
Next Week Say Goodbye to GBPCAD at the Top...
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #126
  • Edited 11:28am Mar 8, 2025 1:19am | Edited 11:28am
Gaming Prop Firm Rules Revisited

It's the weekend, so relax. So, I'm writing to unwind. Revisit the rules implemented by Gaming Prop Firms to see how far they have come. Red for irrational rules, Green for good rules, Grey Love for simply neutral ones.

Source: https://propfirmmatch.com/prop-firm-rules?page=1

1. News Trading
What's the point of news trading restrictions? Simply put, they're unnecessary because this is just a game. Traders can lose or win, which is good for both them and the prop firm, whether they succeed or fail.

2. Weekend Trading
What's the point of weekend trading restrictions? Nada.

3. Capital Allocation Limit
This rule is entirely for the survival of the Prop Firm. As stated in this post: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15167691 let's say 13k is the maximum monthly payout limit per trader. For new Prop Firms, it’s best not to go above 100k per person (ID) per test.

4. Multiple Profile Accounts, Third-Party Trading
This rule is wisdom—it's good, just like code in blockchain, to eliminate and minimize bad actors such as third-party hedging or account jockeying. Since accounts can be hedged and jockeyed, there should be only one profile ID per trader, one email, with national data verification (standard KYC).

5. Position Sizes, Margin Rules, Risk Exposure Limitation
What's the point of size limits and margin rules? If a trader doesn't understand the basics, that's their own fault because they can read the provided leverage.

6. Copy Trading, EA Advisor
What's the point of copy trading and EA Advisor restrictions? Nada.

7. Forbidden Trading Practices
Yes, restrictions on certain trading methods like HFT are useful because even regular brokers struggle with this trading style, especially from a system perspective.

8. Minimum Trading Days
Simply not Needed.

9. Inactivity Rules
Simply not Needed.

10. All challenges beyond a 1-Step
What's the point of all challenges beyond a 1-Step? One step is enough and straightforward. This is the weirdest rule created by FTMO, and strangely, traders follow it—probably because it's cheaper. Then there's the instant challenge with a high price. Evaluation in trading should happen just once—if a trader succeeds. Even a 1-Step process can take a long time.

11. TP target 10% and above; DD (Static) below -6%
A TP target above 7% is simply one of the most absurd rules. TP should be capped at around 7% max. Scientifically, as explained in this thread, 6% per month can lead to 100% in a year, while -6% per month can wipe out -50%. Perhaps Prop Firms believe that, in the long run, a trader can achieve 10% in some months. However, to be consistently profitable, they would need to reach 20% in many months. And of course, if someone manages to achieve this over a year, they are already quite successful. The same goes for a -6% DD per month. So if there’s a drawdown below that, it’s basically the same thing.

12. Trailing DD and all forms of daily profit and loss limits
What's the point? Yeah, there’s no logic to it, and it actually benefits the prop firm. Trading shares many similarities with gambling since it's still within the same main financial product system (scientifically speaking), so why impose such limits?

13. Static DD
Excellente!

14. Consistency Rules
What’s the point of Consistency Rules? No trader is truly consistent over a day, a month, and a year—they always have ups and downs each month, and people who tend to support consistency rules are still influenced by psychoanalysis thinking rather than real science of randomness. If it's just about 3% per month, anyone can hit that in a single lucky shot or as an average trader. Some traders are consistent for years, but that’s a different level and doesn’t need promotion. It feels a bit sarcastic when you realize that the trading world is 90% failure and only 10% success. We're basically stepping into a world full of losers. Lol . Why? Maybe it's the adrenaline, the neurotransmitter rush—dopamine doping—and the unparalleled satisfaction of winning. We can win and lose in a single day, but never stop thinking—because we are the smartest creatures on this planet.

15. The IP Address rule
The IP Address rule is scientifically okay, but it shouldn't be limited to one IP per account. Let traders use a VPN to bypass government restrictions as long as they remain within the same country—I think that’s fine.

16. Excessive Scalping
What's with this excessive scalping rule? Honestly, if I could, I'd slap the person who made this rule out of sheer frustration—LOL . In reality, it actually benefits firms that charge commissions since traders' profits get eroded anyway. As long as it's not HFT, it should be fine. Imagine Maven enforcing this rule while ranting non-stop—I’m sure you'd challenge them to a Power Slap Game.

17. All or Nothing
Simply not Needed.

18. Average Trade Duration
Simply not Needed.

19. Order Block Spamming
Order block spamming is useful for preventing HFT.

20. News Trading on Qualified Analyst Accounts
What du heck, Dude!

21. Minimum days For Evaluation account, Minimum days For Funded account, and Maximum days
Simply not Needed.

22. SL Rules
SL Rules are a must and a wisdom, no matter what percentage of risk you take. This is an example of a good psychological rule, and promotion is also necessary.

23. Payout-On-Demand Rules, Advanced Program Payout Policy
For payouts, just set the rule to 3 times a month—a cycle of 7, 14, and 21 days for the prop firm's bookkeeping. Simple.

24. Profit Days Requirements
Simply not Needed.

25. One-Sided Bets
What?

26. Social Media & Public Conduct
You project your own pain by accusing others of being weak, but some of us are not amateurs in psychology—we are experts, both in statistical science and medicine.

27. Choice of Strategy
Lel

28. Risk Management & Trading Limits
No Need. Complexity.

29. Prohibition on Same-Sized Challenge Accounts
Traders should be allowed to trade multiple challenges as much as they want, as long as they don’t exceed 300k for well-funded prop firms and 100k for new prop firms.

30. Scenario
What?

31. Unethical trading practices are strictly prohibited
Latency arbitrage, Account arbitrage, Tick scalping, Any other forms of cheating: Dude, you don’t know what you don’t know.

32. Exploitation of System Errors
OK

33. Market Closure Rule
Simply not Needed.

34. Tradeable Pairs
Just No.

35. Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)
DCA is fine, as long as it's not HFT.

36. Challenge Breach Suspension and Funded Account Breach Suspension
Not needed.

As seen from the total 36 rules for example, broadly speaking, only 5 rules are green and 4 rules are gray, with one rule earning a purple dot for being overly complicated ill manner. Ultimately, only wisdom rules are necessary. We achieve progress by reducing, not by adding unnecessary rules.

Cheerz
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #127
  • Mar 8, 2025 5:02am Mar 8, 2025 5:02am
$400 for $100k in a year, just 1 account, 1 challenge ...

Quote
And I have a question that keeps tickling my mind: Even with all the above rules and high complexity, you only need to pay $400 for a $100K account, then pass a 10% test, and you get a chance to get $100K (100%) for a year. Then you will eligible to receive 80%(80k). However, if you hit a -6% drawdown, you fail. What makes you uninterested?
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #128
  • Edited Mar 9, 2025 9:11am Mar 8, 2025 2:13pm | Edited Mar 9, 2025 9:11am
Quoting RoelsMajor
So The Guidelines: Rules of 7 PVSRA TVT 1/3 ATR 14 Days Pair Selection: Scan all 28 pairs using ATR (14 Days). A broader range, such as 99 pips and above, might be a better choice for trading pairs as it provides more room for SL (risk). Minimum SL is 33 pips. Optimal Maximum Leverage for Forex: 10:1; Kelly = SR/σ, where SR = 0.1 and σ = 1% per day. However, we use a scale target, Percentage Daily - Trading Day Profit Target, TP/SL 1/1 (like a Sniper: "aim small, miss small") - based on 1/3 ATR 14 Days. Stop Loss is mandatory. Never target...
Minor revision to the guidelines: now only trading TVT without reversal and red news. Results may improve with the addition of a killzone range indicator every 8 hours (3 ranges). Lets try this with discipline like a robot . Lel .

Inserted Code
Rules of 7
PVSRA TVT 1/3 ATR 21 - Daily Ranger
1. Pair Selection: Scan all 28 pairs using ATR 21 Days. A broader range, such as 90 pips and above, might be a better choice for trading pairs as it provides more room for SL (risk). Minimum SL is 30 pips. There are more pairs available with ATR 21 in a day—up to 14.
2. Optimal Maximum Leverage for Forex: 10:1; Kelly = SR/σ, where SR = 0.1 and σ = 1% per day. However, we use a scale target, Percentage Daily Profit Target, TP/SL ratio 1:1 (like a Sniper) - based on 1/3 ATR 21. Stop Loss is mandatory.
3. Timing Entry: Enter better after 8 hours from New Day (after Range 1).
4. Buy should be from the bottom or sell must be from the top - of the range (universal rules).
5. Trends: Golden Belt stacked below Blue Dragon for Long, and above Blue Dragon for Short. Check full-chart bars in H1 or D for a broader trend perspective.
6. Key Levels & Volume: Pay attention to consolidation above or below whole/half levels, S/R levels, and high-volume activity.
7. No trade during Red News events, and Discipline like a robot.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.piM15.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #129
  • Edited 6:27am Mar 10, 2025 5:36am | Edited 6:27am
A fortunate result this afternoon from trading USDJPY and CADJPY. It wasn't a perfect entry—ideally, the short should have been at the Top Range 2. However, it still managed to generate a profit of 1/3 ADR 21, USDJPY 52 pips today and CADJPY 42 pips.

Then, there was a DST adjustment. Local time here, there was no change during the London Open, but the broker's time shifted to GMT +3 (Moscow). As a result, the Kill Zone shifted by +15 minutes.

Lucky Luck!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY.piM15-C3-37-3.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.piM15-C3-38-3.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GXsaTqnWgAAdM2s.jpg Size: 232 KB
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  • #130
  • Mar 11, 2025 2:51pm Mar 11, 2025 2:51pm
Sometimes the jackpot saves the day. A boom moment in the middle of the night. Good Night...
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  • #131
  • Mar 12, 2025 7:00am Mar 12, 2025 7:00am
Even though it's only 0.5% per day, the results are decent if consistent.
I think it's not the number of pips that matters, but the percentage profit scale from 1/3 aDtr 21 (pips range).
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  • #132
  • Mar 12, 2025 10:26pm Mar 12, 2025 10:26pm
aDtr Today
14 pairs 90 pips range and above
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  • #133
  • Edited 11:02pm Mar 12, 2025 10:51pm | Edited 11:02pm
About price consolidation at the Half and Whole levels

Example from yesterday:
GBPNZD and GBPAUD consolidated below the Trends and the Half Level, and then the price broke upward by 1/3 ATR before being taken down from the Whole Level. The Trends were bullish at that time.

For EURNZD, the price consolidated below the Trends and Whole Level, still broke upward slightly even though it was a fake break, and then dropped. The Trends were bullish at that time.

For EURAUD, the price consolidated below the Trends and Half Level, still broke upward slightly despite a fake break, and then dropped. The Trends were bullish at that time.

For GBPCAD, consolidation occurred below the Trends and Whole Level, and then it broke upward by 1/3 ADR before dropping. The Trends were bullish.

For EURCAD, consolidation occurred below the Trends and Half Level, it broke upward by 1/3 ADR, and then the price dropped. The trend was bullish at that time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.piM15.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.piM15.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.piM15.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.piM15.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD.piM15.png Size: 26 KB
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  • #134
  • Edited 11:34pm Mar 12, 2025 11:16pm | Edited 11:34pm
Today, consolidation is seen in JPY pairs, occurring above and below the Trends, or above and below the Whole Level or Half Level.

The best solution for predicting price movement is to trade along with the Trends (wait until Range 2) and set a target of 1/3 ATR or ADR for today, while avoiding trades in the opposite direction of the trends for safety until the trends change. Break movements always cut through the Dragon. In addition, if the distance between the Dragon and the Golden Belt is too wide, the likelihood of the price returning to the Golden Belt increases.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY.piM15.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY.piM15.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY.piM15.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY.piM15.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.piM15.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #135
  • Mar 13, 2025 12:41am Mar 13, 2025 12:41am
14 pairs + 2 pairs are all moving in the opposite direction of The Trends after Range 2 is opened, so No Trade so far. Wait until the London Open, maybe.
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  • #136
  • Mar 13, 2025 4:26am Mar 13, 2025 4:26am
16 pairs all Bull Mode after LO except /CAD? Lol 3 hours before Red News...
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  • #137
  • Mar 13, 2025 7:22am Mar 13, 2025 7:22am
EU formed a mighty bottom blue candle 15 minutes before the red news. Lel Lets see after red news...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.piM15.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #138
  • Mar 13, 2025 11:51am Mar 13, 2025 11:51am
Enough loss for today. Cant Win and No Luck ...
Lel
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  • #139
  • Mar 14, 2025 4:01am Mar 14, 2025 4:01am
USDCAD Today: Big Red Candle Win , Big Green Candle Loss ...
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  • #140
  • Mar 14, 2025 7:05am Mar 14, 2025 7:05am
Lets see after last Red News this week, in 2 hours, 8 candle M15.

Quote
Aim high and aim small, miss high and miss small

- Mark Spitznagel -
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