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  • #1,541
  • Mar 12, 2025 5:55pm Mar 12, 2025 5:55pm
Quoting Fadhl
End of day analysis! {image} We got an irrelevant daily close. Tomorrow, we have PPI data. NQ will behave in the same CPI manner: 1- Overshoot: NQ down; 2- Inline or Undershoot: A bounce and down (zigzag). What I want to highlight is that the current area 19100-19600 seems to become ST/MT Support or Resistance. Hence price might continue to be around it until the end of the week and the next few days. When price will break it, it will give the sign of next direction: 1- Recession, inflation and tariffs are all negative factors. NQ should continue...
Appreciate the context, price ranges and your candid take on the market ... as always !!

I assume you have already seem this, but this article by a JP Morgan analysts puts recession at 40% chance.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/13...s-recession-jp

I am not sure if points like "stopping the war, some benefits from the current president, etc" can IN TIME prevent recession. Not sure why CPI came down, but basic things like grocery items have gotten expensive. In the end the tariffs have to be passed on to the consumers !! We don't use moving averages in thie thread, but indices are at/below the 300 EMA. The daily chart smells trouble to me !!
  • #1,542
  • Mar 13, 2025 7:25am Mar 13, 2025 7:25am
Quoting BikB
{quote} Appreciate the context, price ranges and your candid take on the market ... as always !! I assume you have already seem this, but this article by a JP Morgan analysts puts recession at 40% chance. https://www.forexfactory.com/news/13...s-recession-jp I am not sure if points like "stopping the war, some benefits from the current president, etc" can IN TIME prevent recession. Not sure why CPI came down, but basic things like grocery items have gotten expensive. In the end the tariffs have to be passed on...
Thanks BikB!
Stopping the war has a positive impact on Equities (i.e., NQ) and stocks, but it will be short live. This said, Trump is doing that only to receive the Noble peace reward; He doesn't care about people!
The recession is already here and the tariffs will make it worse. Trump's team are manufacturing the recession to press the FED for free money and rate cuts which it will benefit him and the billionaires around him. The ordinary American won't get anything from it. This self-inflicted recession won't be resolved easily with free money as Trump is making enemies across the bord starting with the closest allies and neighbors. The rest of the world and investors won't trust anymore US order. So the damage is way beyond the ST.
Regarding the EMA indicator or any other indicator, the thread is open. You can share your ideas using any tools which it will make the thread dynamic.
  • #1,543
  • Mar 13, 2025 7:25am Mar 13, 2025 7:25am
Heads-up... PPI news is coming.
  • #1,544
  • Mar 13, 2025 7:32am Mar 13, 2025 7:32am
PPI data came undershoot! Really strange but anyhow.. same behavior as yesterday is expected: zigzag; up and down.
  • #1,545
  • Mar 13, 2025 7:39am Mar 13, 2025 7:39am
@Fadhl your analysis has been right on point time and time again. This has really helped me understand the ebbs and flows of Nas, thank you for showing up daily!
  • #1,546
  • Mar 13, 2025 8:08am Mar 13, 2025 8:08am
Quoting Fadhl
PPI data came undershoot! Really strange but anyhow.. same behavior as yesterday is expected: zigzag; up and down.
Here is my potential Sell entry after NY opening.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NAS100_2025-03-13_09-06-59.png Size: 37 KB
  • #1,547
  • Mar 13, 2025 8:09am Mar 13, 2025 8:09am
Quoting scapitalllc
@Fadhl your analysis has been right on point time and time again. This has really helped me understand the ebbs and flows of Nas, thank you for showing up daily!
You're so welcome and thank you for your appreciation!
  • #1,548
  • Mar 13, 2025 8:36am Mar 13, 2025 8:36am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Here is my potential Sell entry after NY opening. {image}
You think we are going back to that lvl?
  • #1,549
  • Mar 13, 2025 8:42am Mar 13, 2025 8:42am
Quoting Mattisanti
{quote} You think we are going back to that lvl?
I don't know. But here the two scenarios that might happen. And I'll wait for a break and retest.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NAS100_2025-03-13_09-41-46.png Size: 35 KB
  • #1,550
  • Mar 13, 2025 8:48am Mar 13, 2025 8:48am
The bounce was very shy and it happened before NY opening. It seems market is going down.
Here my entry if the retest is bearish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NAS100_2025-03-13_09-47-30.png Size: 32 KB

Edit:
I'm in.
  • #1,551
  • Mar 13, 2025 8:57am Mar 13, 2025 8:57am
Quoting Fadhl
The bounce was very shy and it happened before NY opening. It seems market is going down. Here my entry if the retest is bearish. {image} Edit: I'm in.
It was very quick. Already took off some!
  • #1,552
  • Mar 13, 2025 8:58am Mar 13, 2025 8:58am
Not for today, but recession and any delay from the FED to intervene, NQ will reach 16700.
  • #1,553
  • Mar 13, 2025 9:05am Mar 13, 2025 9:05am
Another opportunity to sell with a tight STP=35 points.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NAS100_2025-03-13_10-04-14.png Size: 34 KB
  • #1,554
  • Mar 13, 2025 9:25am Mar 13, 2025 9:25am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} It was very quick. Already took off some!
And stopped at BE my last position.
  • #1,555
  • Mar 13, 2025 9:35am Mar 13, 2025 9:35am
In again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NAS100_2025-03-13_10-34-15.png Size: 35 KB
  • #1,556
  • Edited 10:43am Mar 13, 2025 10:19am | Edited 10:43am
Quoting Fadhl
In again {image}
Banked 130 points and moved STP to BE.
Edit:
Banked another 100 points and BE is +100
  • #1,557
  • Mar 13, 2025 11:01am Mar 13, 2025 11:01am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Banked 130 points and moved STP to BE. Edit: Banked another 100 points and BE is +100
Closed all and I'm done for the day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NAS100_2025-03-13_11-57-58.png Size: 35 KB
  • #1,558
  • Mar 13, 2025 12:13pm Mar 13, 2025 12:13pm
NQ is going to drop heavenly... The lower TL is reachable from today to Friday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,559
  • Mar 13, 2025 3:42pm Mar 13, 2025 3:42pm
End of day analysis!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NAS100_2025-03-13_16-37-03.png Size: 41 KB

We got a strong red daily candle. It's very bearish, but no brake yet!
Tomorrow, we have Consumer Sentiment.
1- With an undershoot data, price will break down with no return;
2- Inline or an overshoot data, price will bounce and stay within TL as market is not ready to move up until the FED jump in or Tax cut be in place.

Trade safely!
  • #1,560
  • Mar 13, 2025 3:48pm Mar 13, 2025 3:48pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Banked 130 points and moved STP to BE. Edit: Banked another 100 points and BE is +100
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 819 KB
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