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The PriceBob Strategy

  • #61
  • Mar 10, 2025 10:39am Mar 10, 2025 10:39am
Quoting vidvad
Today's MeBob live trading video https://youtu.be/ox717XUDPoE
Great breakdown and patience
  • #62
  • Mar 10, 2025 10:41am Mar 10, 2025 10:41am
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Remember you can also just target 1x the MEBOB range from the trigger candle.
Imo, the money management is trader's choice on MeBob. If someone wants to target +2 points that's his choice. If someone want to target 1:1 measuring to the failed breakout high as fream1 did, that too is a valid choice.

The most important part of any trading plan, assuming a positive expectancy edge exists, is does the trader feel comfportable with the stop loss risk and the reward hoping to be offered.

BTW, new MeBob short at the close of the 11:40 candle.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #63
  • Mar 10, 2025 10:42am Mar 10, 2025 10:42am
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Remember you can also just target 1x the MEBOB range from the trigger candle.
You are right, seeing so many rejections from above, I opted for the option of using those zones as stop loss.
  • #64
  • Mar 10, 2025 10:42am Mar 10, 2025 10:42am
Second MeBob short another +10 profit. I didn't record it, but it will be included in tonight's MeBob review video.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #65
  • Mar 10, 2025 10:44am Mar 10, 2025 10:44am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Imo, the money management is trader's choice on MeBob. If someone wants to target +2 points that's his choice. If someone want to target 1:1 measuring to the failed breakout high as fream1 did, that too is a valid choice. The most important part of any trading plan, assuming a positive expectancy edge exists, is does the trader feel comfportable with the stop loss risk and the reward hoping to be offered. BTW, new MeBob short at the close of the 11:40 candle.
I agree 100%, just want to make sure he knew he didn't have to use 1:1 with top of MB range, not saying what he did was wrong!
  • #66
  • Mar 10, 2025 10:44am Mar 10, 2025 10:44am
Quoting vidvad
Second MeBob short another +10 profit. I didn't record it, but it will be included in tonight's MeBob review video.
  • #67
  • Mar 10, 2025 11:01am Mar 10, 2025 11:01am
The old floppy disk in my head has being whirring and clicking away....
Why? Well if I could understand why me Bob chose that particular candle... Then perhaps it would shed some light on further ideas of capturing the trend or a larger move..

First and foremost in my head is 10:00 a.m. is not only the hourly rotation but it's the 4-Hour rotation..

So perhaps I may look at the 4-Hour chart with some very simple technicals... In the spirit of always keeping things simple.

My other thought perhaps he's using first 30 minutes of the equity open as an opening range. 930-10 and simply the 10:05 is the setup.. perhaps he had a bias from that first 30 minutes....

Again just spitballing some ideas out there.

Cheers
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #68
  • Mar 10, 2025 11:15am Mar 10, 2025 11:15am
Quoting bluesteele
The old floppy disk in my head has being whirring and clicking away.... Why? Well if I could understand why me Bob chose that particular candle... Then perhaps it would shed some light on further ideas of capturing the trend or a larger move.. First and foremost in my head is 10:00 a.m. is not only the hourly rotation but it's the 4-Hour rotation.. So perhaps I may look at the 4-Hour chart with some very simple technicals... In the spirit of always keeping things simple. My other thought perhaps he's using first 30 minutes of the equity open as...
If I had to guess the logic behind that choice of candle it would be this: 10 AM is the opening 30 minute range. 20+ years ago, that was a very popular range amongst all traders, retail and institutions, and it remains a favorite of institutions today. By waiting for 10 minutes after the close of the 30 minute opening range, it allowed for brekaout and failed breakout of that range to settle. The assumption MeBob probably used was that after the first breakout attempt, the next move would likely be sustained. So it was a way of not getting chopped by a failed breakout, as well as a good time to catch what could be a swing lasting an hour or two. Back in those days of the 1990's and early 2000's day traders, catching swings, or at least, trying to catch and ride swings, was popular as recall.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #69
  • Mar 10, 2025 11:23am Mar 10, 2025 11:23am
If you are a new trader or a veteran struggling with consistency, fighting the demons of FOMO and over trading, watch this video:

Inserted Video


Then watch this video:

Inserted Video


Then use the information in the first to complete the exercise in the second. Do it for 20 trading days. During that time, do not worry about profits and losses. Just do the exercise. Use a SIM account, or if you insist on trading live, use micro contracts. Do this for 20 trading days and you will likely put most of your trading demons behind you and be well on your way to becoming a consistently profitable trader.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #70
  • Mar 10, 2025 11:49am Mar 10, 2025 11:49am
Well - a chart for SP500 and Nasdaq. Seems Nas might offer more bang per buck ?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #71
  • Mar 10, 2025 11:55am Mar 10, 2025 11:55am
Quoting bluesteele
The old floppy disk in my head has being whirring and clicking away.... Why? Well if I could understand why me Bob chose that particular candle... Then perhaps it would shed some light on further ideas of capturing the trend or a larger move.. First and foremost in my head is 10:00 a.m. is not only the hourly rotation but it's the 4-Hour rotation.. So perhaps I may look at the 4-Hour chart with some very simple technicals... In the spirit of always keeping things simple. My other thought perhaps he's using first 30 minutes of the equity open as...
My head hurts too But I keep reading and testing after trading
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #72
  • Mar 10, 2025 12:09pm Mar 10, 2025 12:09pm
Quoting bluesteele
The old floppy disk in my head has being whirring and clicking away.... Why? Well if I could understand why me Bob chose that particular candle... Then perhaps it would shed some light on further ideas of capturing the trend or a larger move.. First and foremost in my head is 10:00 a.m. is not only the hourly rotation but it's the 4-Hour rotation.. So perhaps I may look at the 4-Hour chart with some very simple technicals... In the spirit of always keeping things simple. My other thought perhaps he's using first 30 minutes of the equity open as...
In my opinion, it's simple. By the 8th 5-minute bar, the market has moved past the initial volatility of the opening bell and the immediate reaction to economic news or overnight sentiment. The market begins establishing a directional bias after the first half-hour of trading, and this bar captures that transition

You can see just from simple volume that one bar before the MB setup candle, volume was equal to the highest it's been all day, and after this candle the volume is not even close.

Basically, the most liquid and volatile part of the day is over, and the first five or so minutes proceeding this part of the day can create a logical zone traders can use to gauge market direction.
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  • #73
  • Mar 10, 2025 1:40pm Mar 10, 2025 1:40pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Imo, the money management is trader's choice on MeBob. The most important part of any trading plan, assuming a positive expectancy edge exists, is does the trader feel comfportable with the stop loss risk and the reward hoping to be offered.
How have you/will you determine that this strategy has a positive expectancy edge?
NinjaTrader/cTrader Coder, @backtested on telegram
  • #74
  • Edited 2:01pm Mar 10, 2025 1:46pm | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting backtested.
{quote} How have you/will you determine that this strategy has a positive expectancy edge?

Forward testing with live trades in the live market now. Probably need about 100 days of data to be sure.

The lone variable for me with respect to money management is that the take profit most likely will best be determined through an ATR function.

This thread is a systems thread, but it is a shared work-in-progress. The strategy was created by a trader back in the 1990's who recently passed away. So while we have his rules, we don't know what his data looked like, not if his view of the method changed over the course of the past 30 years.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #76
  • Mar 10, 2025 2:03pm Mar 10, 2025 2:03pm
Quoting backtested.
{quote} Just trying to understand your methodology because you seemed to have an issue with me saying that discretion is the edge, rather than the rules of a system in another thread, but in this one it seems like you are saying that you don't have mechanical rules and are using price action to determine how to trade around these levels. Surely forward testing would show that you have an edge using the system but to me it doesn't show that the system itself has an edge. Backtesting with concrete rules would show the system itself has an edge. Maybe...
Have you watched the live trading videos? I'm using the original MeBob entry rules, stop loss rule, and currently a 10 point take profit. The problem with a multi year backtest at this time is I'm still working on a proper ATR function for the take profit. 10 points is great for now. A month ago, 4 or 5 points would have been more appropriate.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #77
  • Mar 10, 2025 2:15pm Mar 10, 2025 2:15pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Have you watched the live trading videos? I'm using the original MeBob entry rules, stop loss rule, and currently a 10 point take profit. The problem with a multi year backtest at this time is I'm still working on a proper ATR function for the take profit. 10 points is great for now. A month ago, 4 or 5 points would have been more appropriate.
I watched a bit of one video but the voice changer stuff put me off a bit to be honest.

As for backtesting I feel like I'd start with the backtesting to try and work out these parameters and how they should be adjusted to different market conditions and then proceed with the live forward test, even if it needed to be adjusted later.
NinjaTrader/cTrader Coder, @backtested on telegram
  • #78
  • Mar 10, 2025 2:32pm Mar 10, 2025 2:32pm
Quoting backtested.
{quote} As for backtesting I feel like I'd start with the backtesting to try and work out these parameters and how they should be adjusted to different market conditions and then proceed with the live forward test, even if it needed to be adjusted later.
I'm just doing my thing and having fun with it.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #79
  • Mar 10, 2025 2:36pm Mar 10, 2025 2:36pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Have you watched the live trading videos? I'm using the original MeBob entry rules, stop loss rule, and currently a 10 point take profit. The problem with a multi year backtest at this time is I'm still working on a proper ATR function for the take profit. 10 points is great for now. A month ago, 4 or 5 points would have been more appropriate.
Great video, thanks for sharing.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #80
  • Mar 10, 2025 2:41pm Mar 10, 2025 2:41pm
Quoting backtested.
{quote} I watched a bit of one video but the voice changer stuff put me off a bit to be honest. As for backtesting I feel like I'd start with the backtesting to try and work out these parameters and how they should be adjusted to different market conditions and then proceed with the live forward test, even if it needed to be adjusted later.
Then do it, rules are on first page ..good luck!
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NeilBrew