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The Swamp

  • #121,501
  • Mar 7, 2025 6:06am Mar 7, 2025 6:06am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} Alright! It's getting near the anticipated target. Now watch November lows for a turnaround {image}
DXY possible scenario
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  • #121,502
  • Mar 7, 2025 6:20am Mar 7, 2025 6:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} St the Gu may run back to 2890.X I will look there to long. The better support it may not reach about 2800ish.
I dont see it now. Especially as equity's slipping has outflow unbalanced recently. But one has to have a back up. Sustained below 2700 is likely bearish
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  • #121,503
  • Mar 7, 2025 6:22am Mar 7, 2025 6:22am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} DXY possible scenario {image}
If NFP is bad, it will likely hit the bottom. NFP probably doesn't have all the firings in this months data.. Next month should be worse.
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  • #121,504
  • Mar 7, 2025 6:40am Mar 7, 2025 6:40am
EU trendline with AU example a short trade which I ignored.
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  • #121,505
  • Mar 7, 2025 6:40am Mar 7, 2025 6:40am
We got 1h before NFP. I had hoped the GU reached 2890 b4 NFP. I expect NFP to be a bad number. I dont know if, or how much of this rise is priced in. I just took a smaller GU long. I'm anticipating the number is bad, sinking the usd. I may be wrong. I canceled pendings. EU 0877 has a chance to resist, but I canceled fearing NFP could run it over. I left the pending for 1.0982
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  • #121,506
  • Mar 7, 2025 8:02am Mar 7, 2025 8:02am
Quoting gatorinla
We got 1h before NFP. I had hoped the GU reached 2890 b4 NFP. I expect NFP to be a bad number. I dont know if, or how much of this rise is priced in. I just took a smaller GU long. I'm anticipating the number is bad, sinking the usd. I may be wrong. I canceled pendings. EU 0877 has a chance to resist, but I canceled fearing NFP could run it over. I left the pending for 1.0982
I closed, I was not impressed with a small profit... 2890 I may again. I'm hoping the support at 2897/2900 lets it fall a little. Enough for the attraction at 2890.x to work
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,507
  • Mar 7, 2025 8:13am Mar 7, 2025 8:13am
Quoting gatorinla
. EU 0877 has a chance to resist, but I canceled fearing NFP could run it over. I left the pending for 1.0982
We may get 817 or adr on the eu dropping from 877 area.
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  • #121,508
  • Mar 7, 2025 8:44am Mar 7, 2025 8:44am
I took one eu short. 0877 area is where It had potential. It's a potentially larger R. I have 08717x as a possible tp st. But since it is a larger R, it can go more. I know the recent trend is up, and 1.0994/1.1 is probably a better R. But it may not get there.
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  • #121,509
  • Mar 7, 2025 8:48am Mar 7, 2025 8:48am
I'm late posting the uj has support 107
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  • #121,510
  • Mar 7, 2025 10:13am Mar 7, 2025 10:13am
Quoting gatorinla
I'm late posting the uj has support 107
The eu is extremely bullish. It's also way past its average's ranges. PA is being very jerky.. 877 to me was a place it may retrace. It can easily blow past up or down 100 pips.
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  • #121,511
  • Mar 7, 2025 10:54am Mar 7, 2025 10:54am
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  • #121,512
  • Mar 7, 2025 11:39am Mar 7, 2025 11:39am
Quoting gatorinla
I'm late posting the uj has support 107
107 uj is a support. But if its sustained below 107. It may drop 500. It's not a trade for me because of swap to short. It would be nice if it held on as support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,513
  • Edited 12:04pm Mar 7, 2025 11:52am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
EU Technical Analysis: The pair is trading near a four-month low, indicating potential for further downside. Trade Idea: Consider shorting EUR/USD with a target of 500 pips downward. Optimal Entry: Around 1.0800, after a confirmed break below support.. Invalidation Level: A sustained move above 1.1000. I have week trend resistance at 1.0984. psych number 1.1 As as it rising. I will try to enter 1.0984 area. On the smaller timeframes some type of reversal to get the better entry. {image}
Between those magenta lines, there’s a strong chance of forming a top. I’m not certain if a top is already in, but the rejection at 1.0877 might have done it. Tops always look bullish on the way up—that’s just how price action works. The broader trend has been down since July 2008, and it’s also lower than last year. If this isn’t the top, the area near 1.1 could be another key level to watch.
Declining employment and persistent inflation make it difficult for the Fed to justify rate cuts. In fact, they may even be forced to hike, which would be bullish for the USD. However, if equity markets continue to fall, some investors will liquidate positions, reducing demand for the USD and weakening it. At the same time, declining equities push investors toward bonds, which allows bond sellers to offer lower yields. A falling yield might mislead people into thinking it's a positive signal, but it’s not. This kind of rate drop isn’t the same as a Fed cut—it’s a warning sign for equities.



4o
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  • #121,514
  • Mar 7, 2025 12:07pm Mar 7, 2025 12:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 107 uj is a support. But if its sustained below 107. It may drop 500. It's not a trade for me because of swap to short. It would be nice if it held on as support.
Good luck if long.. I'm out. UJ
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  • #121,515
  • Mar 7, 2025 12:13pm Mar 7, 2025 12:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I closed, I was not impressed with a small profit... 2890 I may again. I'm hoping the support at 2897/2900 lets it fall a little. Enough for the attraction at 2890.x to work
I have no doubt 2900 area can support the GU. With some profit taking it may fall. I see the 2800 as a place to long. But if it sustains below 2700.. Its likely bearish -2700. 2700/2800 is a place to me to look for a long.
2890 is over... that was short term
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  • #121,516
  • Mar 7, 2025 12:19pm Mar 7, 2025 12:19pm
EU
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  • #121,517
  • Mar 7, 2025 12:27pm Mar 7, 2025 12:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Between those magenta lines, there’s a strong chance of forming a top. I’m not certain if a top is already in, but the rejection at 1.0877 might have done it. Tops always look bullish on the way up—that’s just how price action works. The broader trend has been down since July 2008, and it’s also lower than last year. If this isn’t the top, the area near 1.1 could be another key level to watch. Declining employment and persistent inflation make it difficult for the Fed to justify rate cuts. In fact, they may even be forced to hike, which...
Add: Whenever/wherever the EU tops, I expect 500+ pips down.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,518
  • Mar 7, 2025 12:57pm Mar 7, 2025 12:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Add: Whenever/wherever the EU tops, I expect 500+ pips down.
High likely 1.0374 would be revisited. Wether from here or above.
  • #121,519
  • Mar 7, 2025 1:01pm Mar 7, 2025 1:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Add: Whenever/wherever the EU tops, I expect 500+ pips down.
GU
ATM 1.2908
Fundamental Analysis: The UK economy is struggling with issues like a weak construction sector and business uncertainty. But the pound is holding up, maybe because big stores are raising wages.
Technical Analysis: The pair has been moving a lot but staying in a wide range.
Trade Idea: A 300-pip move could happen, but hitting 500 pips would need big news or events.
Optimal Entry: Buy near 1.2800 support or sell near 1.3000 resistance.
Invalidation Level: If price drops below 1.2700, buying isn’t great.
If it breaks above 1.3100, selling is risky.
I look to sell 1.300/3100.
I look to buy 1.2800/2700.
I will try to find something on a shorter time to signal either buy sell in those areas.
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  • #121,520
  • Mar 7, 2025 1:05pm Mar 7, 2025 1:05pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} High likely 1.0374 would be revisited. Wether from here or above.
Thats 500+
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