The Swamp | Page 6073 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #121,441
  • Mar 5, 2025 5:17am Mar 5, 2025 5:17am
Currency outflows refer to the movement of financial assets out of a country, often due to factors like political or economic instability. This phenomenon can lead to a depreciation of the nation's currency, as decreased demand reduces its value.
investopedia.com
Mechanisms of Currency Outflows:
Capital Flight: Investors may transfer assets abroad to safeguard against domestic economic uncertainties, reducing demand for the local currency and leading to depreciation.
Trade Deficits: When a country imports more than it exports, foreign currency is used to pay for these imports, increasing currency outflows.
Foreign Investments: Domestic entities investing in foreign assets contribute to currency outflows, affecting the exchange rate.
Impact of Currency Outflows:
Currency Depreciation: Increased outflows can lead to a weaker currency, making imports more expensive and potentially fueling inflation.
Interest Rates: To attract foreign capital and stabilize the currency, central banks may raise interest rates, impacting borrowing costs domestically.
Foreign Exchange Reserves: Countries might utilize foreign exchange reserves to manage excessive currency depreciation resulting from significant outflows.
Understanding currency outflows is crucial for comprehending a nation's economic health and the factors influencing exchange rate dynamics.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,442
  • Mar 5, 2025 5:18am Mar 5, 2025 5:18am
Quoting gatorinla
Currency outflows refer to the movement of financial assets out of a country, often due to factors like political or economic instability. This phenomenon can lead to a depreciation of the nation's currency, as decreased demand reduces its value. investopedia.com Mechanisms of Currency Outflows: Capital Flight: Investors may transfer assets abroad to safeguard against domestic economic uncertainties, reducing demand for the local currency and leading to...
I got stopped on several trades. I got a little greedy and didnt close enough in profit.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,443
  • Mar 5, 2025 5:39am Mar 5, 2025 5:39am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} A lot of farmers from rural farmlands in US voted for him. They are reaping the seeds they have sown. No one knows better than farmers how that works.
We are due for inflation, We are do for even higher interest rates. The idiot bragged on the interest rate drop. That's only because people are fleeing the stock market. And are buying bonds. The demand is driving interest rates lower. The market is setting those rates lower. Its not a good outlook. Consumer sentiment is dropping. Cars and pickups just got a price hike. It's all coming to a head.

I asked "how many non government workers are needed to support each government worker. The multiple is 10 to 20.
The latest I got is 30,000 government workers fired. The multiple is 300,000 to 600,000 non government workers. Minimal is 330,000 workers may lose their job shortly. With more to come.

The exact number of non-government workers needed to support one government worker varies significantly depending on the specific government role, industry sector, and economic conditions, but a commonly cited estimate is around 10 to 20 non-government workers to support a single government employee, meaning that for every government worker, there are 10 to 20 people in the private sector providing services that indirectly contribute to their work.
Key factors influencing the number:

  1. Government job type:
    A government worker in a highly technical field like engineering might require more specialized support from private sector professionals than someone in a more administrative role.
  2. Geographic location:
    The availability and cost of services in different regions can impact how many private sector workers are needed to support a government employee.
  3. Economic conditions:
    During economic downturns, the number of non-government workers supporting each government employee might be higher due to increased unemployment and reliance on government services.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,444
  • Mar 5, 2025 5:43am Mar 5, 2025 5:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} We are due for inflation, We are do for even higher interest rates. The idiot bragged on the interest rate drop. That's only because people are fleeing the stock market. And are buying bonds. The demand is driving interest rates lower. The market is setting those rates lower. Its not a good outlook. Consumer sentiment is dropping. Cars and pickups just got a price hike. It's all coming to a head. I asked "how many non government workers are needed to support each government worker. The multiple is 10 to 20. The latest I got is 30,000 government...
Well, maybe it took Trump as an accelerator to finally bring down US which is a house of cards built on debt.
  • #121,445
  • Mar 5, 2025 5:56am Mar 5, 2025 5:56am
Quoting gatorinla
Currency outflows refer to the movement of financial assets out of a country, often due to factors like political or economic instability. This phenomenon can lead to a depreciation of the nation's currency, as decreased demand reduces its value. investopedia.com Mechanisms of Currency Outflows: Capital Flight: Investors may transfer assets abroad to safeguard against domestic economic uncertainties, reducing demand for the local currency and leading to...
The outflow is greater than the increase in inflation, not cut, maybe even raise argument.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,446
  • Mar 5, 2025 5:59am Mar 5, 2025 5:59am
https://www.theguardian.com/business...ce=chatgpt.com
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 41 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,447
  • Mar 5, 2025 6:06am Mar 5, 2025 6:06am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Well, maybe it took Trump as an accelerator to finally bring down US which is a house of cards built on debt.
He was the accelerator for sure. Over the past 7 yrs. The tax cuts did not pay for themselves as promised. They have cost 2.666T per year on average. They expire this year. He wants to renew them and add another 4.5T. The debt now it 36.6T. 18.6 of that is what the tax cuts added. This year at the expiration it will be an additional 2.666T more. That gets us to 39T. More if the unemployment rate rises, rate increase.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,448
  • Mar 5, 2025 6:12am Mar 5, 2025 6:12am
ST&MT View for EU:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-03-05_07-04-55.png Size: 43 KB
  • #121,449
  • Mar 5, 2025 6:25am Mar 5, 2025 6:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} He was the accelerator for sure. Over the past 7 yrs. The tax cuts did not pay for themselves as promised. They have cost 2.666T per year on average. They expire this year. He wants to renew them and add another 4.5T. The debt now it 36.6T. 18.6 of that is what the tax cuts added. This year at the expiration it will be an additional 2.666T more. That gets us to 39T. More if the unemployment rate rises, rate increase.
Well, he has a stellar record of 6 bankruptcies. He is going for the 7th. It's going to be so huge the likes of which no one has seen before and of course it's all Biden's fault.
  • #121,450
  • Mar 5, 2025 6:32am Mar 5, 2025 6:32am
The market dropped nearly 7%. A 20% one may be where the outflows turn. -20% is considered a bear market. 19.9/10% a correction. Near 20% usually springs back. With the exception being the Black Friday like crashes. We may continue to see outflow (usd pressure) until closer to the 20% mark. Inflation has not equalized with the out flow pressure. When it does a hard EU drop would be in order. Bond demand may lessen up in the 20% area. Stock investors come back. The s/p may be eyeing -5,000. See chart 4,917
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 10 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,451
  • Mar 5, 2025 6:52am Mar 5, 2025 6:52am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Well, he has a stellar record of 6 bankruptcies. He is going for the 7th. It's going to be so huge the likes of which no one has seen before and of course it's all Biden's fault.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. It took the Germans about 6 weeks to lose it all. We are at the 6 week mark now. If its all lost, it's a reset. It starts over from scratch. No debt, no law, No law means we own nothing legally, land, home car, pension, social security, etc. It may also bring a new currency. Meaning any wealth in the currency may be 0. If they get what they asked for. They dont realize it. 0 dollar value has happened before in the U.S. Just ask the confederates. If its lost, all rights have to be fought for again. The guys with the followers make the law. Those guys may be across the ocean now. But hey the dice were tossed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,452
  • Mar 5, 2025 7:46am Mar 5, 2025 7:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. It took the Germans about 6 weeks to lose it all. We are at the 6 week mark now. If its all lost, it's a reset. It starts over from scratch. No debt, no law, No law means we own nothing legally, land, home car, pension, social security, etc. It may also bring a new currency. Meaning any wealth in the currency may be 0. If they get what they asked for. They dont realize it. 0 dollar value has happened before in the U.S. Just ask the confederates. If its lost, all rights have to be fought...
I thought fool me twice was about Trump getting elected again which fits.
In the name of cutting and savings, he is destroying various institutions in other to centralize the gov which he is in charge of. With the checks and balances gone, he can finally become the dictator he always wanted to be and do what all dictators do and create an elite ruling class of people he chooses. Totally a Putin style of governance. After that, he will build it back up with what will keep the system as such. So far he is successful at it.
  • #121,453
  • Mar 5, 2025 8:53am Mar 5, 2025 8:53am
Quoting LoneTrader1
XAUEUR has 2 Gaps {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEURH44.png Size: 14 KB
  • #121,454
  • Mar 5, 2025 12:30pm Mar 5, 2025 12:30pm
Sold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-03-05_13-29-30.png Size: 33 KB
  • #121,455
  • Mar 5, 2025 5:34pm Mar 5, 2025 5:34pm
I had a pending at 2893 trigger. i have 1.2900 as a significant resistance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 4 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,456
  • Mar 5, 2025 5:37pm Mar 5, 2025 5:37pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} I thought fool me twice was about Trump getting elected again which fits. In the name of cutting and savings, he is destroying various institutions in other to centralize the gov which he is in charge of. With the checks and balances gone, he can finally become the dictator he always wanted to be and do what all dictators do and create an elite ruling class of people he chooses. Totally a Putin style of governance. After that, he will build it back up with what will keep the system as such. So far he is successful at it.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,457
  • Mar 5, 2025 7:43pm Mar 5, 2025 7:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
I had a pending at 2893 trigger. i have 1.2900 as a significant resistance {image}
It likely to break.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 5 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,458
  • Mar 5, 2025 8:47pm Mar 5, 2025 8:47pm
This isn't good for the usd.
https://www.11alive.com/article/mone...0-a086df88d80e
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 40 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,459
  • Edited 10:36pm Mar 5, 2025 9:05pm | Edited 10:36pm
Its very bullish into the residue of the R at 1.29.. It may be a buy if it can stop dropping 1.2867/68 attraction
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 4 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,460
  • Mar 5, 2025 9:18pm Mar 5, 2025 9:18pm
Here we go.


The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was a law passed in 1930 that increased tariffs on foreign imports. The law was intended to protect American farmers from foreign competition, but it ultimately made the Great Depression worse.
How it was passed

  1. The bill was sponsored by Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley.
  2. President Herbert Hoover signed the bill into law on June 17, 1930.
  3. The bill passed the Senate by a narrow margin of 44 to 42.
  4. The bill passed the House of Representatives by a vote of 245 to 177.

How it impacted the economy

  1. The tariff froze international trade.

  1. The tariff was not well received by voters.

  1. The tariff helped make the Great Depression worse.

  1. The tariff sparked retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

  1. The tariff increased import duties by about 20%.

Other impacts

  1. The tariff increased the effective tariff rate by at least an additional 30%.

  1. The tariff reduced imports by an estimated 12-20%.

You can also watch this video to learn more about the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act:
https://www.google.com/search?q=snot...9FOGmt7x0,st:0

Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
26 traders viewing now