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  • #10,721
  • Feb 21, 2025 11:09am Feb 21, 2025 11:09am
EU PMI data was mixed, and traders are now expecting more ECB rate cuts. Negative feelings about possible Ukraine-Russia peace talks also pushed the EUR/USD down, even though US data missed expectations. The downward trend should continue for now, but if the 1.0441 support holds and the euro rises, it could reach 1.0492 or 1.0500-06 next.

I’ll be signing off for the week, enjoyed sharing my thoughts with everyone. Have a great weekend!



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  • #10,722
  • Feb 22, 2025 1:56am Feb 22, 2025 1:56am
The EURUSD pair stayed flat this week and closed in red, unable to hold above 1.0500. This was due to fading hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and concerns about new tariffs from the Trump administration. Mixed PMI data also supported expectations for more ECB rate cuts.

For now, the 1.0506/14 level is a resistance, breaking it could push the pair to 1.0534 or even 1.0573 if momentum builds. On the downside, 1.0441, once a resistance, is now a key support. Holding there keeps the current trend alive, but a strong break below could send it to 1.0400, or even the 1.0373 - 1.0350 range if selling intensifies.

Green pips!


Weekly volatility (range) 114 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.0470 (EU1.82b), 1.0460 (EU1.68b), 1.0400 (EU1.58b) Source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US New Home Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP QoQ & US PCE

4H
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  • #10,723
  • Feb 22, 2025 1:10pm Feb 22, 2025 1:10pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EURUSD pair stayed flat this week and closed in red, unable to hold above 1.0500. This was due to fading hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and concerns about new tariffs from the Trump administration. Mixed PMI data also supported expectations for more ECB rate cuts. For now, the 1.0506/14 level is a resistance, breaking it could push the pair to 1.0534 or even 1.0573 if momentum builds. On the downside, 1.0441, once a resistance, is now a key support. Holding there keeps the current trend alive, but a strong break below could send it to...
I could be wrong, but I thought I read this morning that a peace deal with Russia was now very likely. If so, does that send the EU down? I think that it does, but I am not certain.
  • #10,724
  • Feb 22, 2025 3:41pm Feb 22, 2025 3:41pm
Quoting unlv_tj
{quote} I could be wrong, but I thought I read this morning that a peace deal with Russia was now very likely. If so, does that send the EU down? I think that it does, but I am not certain.
Of course not, it sends EU UP. Once a deal is confirmed, EU will be back above 1.10 in no time.

It was the war in Ukraine that started the EU descent from 1.12+.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #10,725
  • Feb 22, 2025 4:21pm Feb 22, 2025 4:21pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Of course not, it sends EU UP. Once a deal is confirmed, EU will be back above 1.10 in no time. It was the war in Ukraine that started the EU descent from 1.12+.
Ah, thank you very much. I will know better how to play it then, if it happens.
  • #10,726
  • Feb 23, 2025 1:55am Feb 23, 2025 1:55am
Quoting unlv_tj
{quote} I could be wrong, but I thought I read this morning that a peace deal with Russia was now very likely. If so, does that send the EU down? I think that it does, but I am not certain.
Hey, that happened last week, like I said in my post! Oh, and we should keep an eye on how the German elections and security spending might shake up a possible peace deal. Also, those tariffs? They’re not doing the EUR/USD any favors, huh?
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  • #10,727
  • Feb 23, 2025 2:31am Feb 23, 2025 2:31am
I don't know how market will open bit 4h chart made nice looking double top so I will look for short trades targeting 1.04 at least
  • #10,728
  • Feb 23, 2025 8:26am Feb 23, 2025 8:26am
1hr n 30m also, I'm thinking we're still falling, daily is also bearish but as we know fundamentals also dictate change. Could there be another gap maybe we hit .042 or trendline tho .044 been holding a lil
It is what it is
  • #10,729
  • Feb 23, 2025 9:14am Feb 23, 2025 9:14am
weekend euro dropped further.

expecting monday open GAP DOWN .
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  • #10,730
  • Feb 23, 2025 10:28am Feb 23, 2025 10:28am
Quoting paogeh
weekend euro dropped further. expecting monday open GAP DOWN . {image}
back up again
  • #10,731
  • Feb 23, 2025 11:26am Feb 23, 2025 11:26am
40 pip gap up currently
  • #10,732
  • Feb 23, 2025 2:13pm Feb 23, 2025 2:13pm
Quoting shay14
40 pip gap up currently
May I ask where you get the price frm?

Edit: Never knew we could check price on weekend. Gt it at bloomberg showing 1.0482
Fundamental provide Volume, Technical shows Direction
  • #10,733
  • Feb 23, 2025 2:38pm Feb 23, 2025 2:38pm
Quoting LucasT
{quote} May I ask where you get the price frm? Edit: Never knew we could check price on weekend. Gt it at bloomberg showing 1.0482
Another source, which I got through the thread is the following:

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/market...weekend-eurusd
  • #10,734
  • Edited 4:26pm Feb 23, 2025 4:00pm | Edited 4:26pm
Quoting LucasT
{quote} May I ask where you get the price frm? Edit: Never knew we could check price on weekend. Gt it at bloomberg showing 1.0482
I get weekend price off www.xe.com.
This is the price action for the last 24 hours before Oanda market open at 5:05 p.m. EST.
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You cannot fail if you never give up.
  • #10,735
  • Feb 23, 2025 5:33pm Feb 23, 2025 5:33pm
Long @1.0464
  • #10,736
  • Feb 23, 2025 5:34pm Feb 23, 2025 5:34pm
Quoting xtradex
Long @1.0464
Short 1.04772
Why go long...When you can go short!
  • #10,737
  • Feb 23, 2025 6:28pm Feb 23, 2025 6:28pm
First trade short 1.0495
  • #10,738
  • Feb 23, 2025 6:30pm Feb 23, 2025 6:30pm
Asian...Green pips
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Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #10,739
  • Feb 23, 2025 7:23pm Feb 23, 2025 7:23pm
Seems like bull is trying to break north

we are at resistance level now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #10,740
  • Feb 23, 2025 10:36pm Feb 23, 2025 10:36pm
The EURUSD rebounded above the 1.0506/14 resistance zone following the German elections, which indicated that the country could form a coalition. However, the more significant resistance at 1.0534 is still capping the uptrend. Support lies at the previously mentioned zone and 1.0500, but if this level fails to hold, the next support at 1.0467 or the 1.0454/49 range should prevent a decline otherwise, the trend may turn bearish again. On the upside, 1.0560 and 1.0573 remain potential bullish targets.

Green pips!


Daily volatility (range) 53 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.0470 (EU1.82b), 1.0460 (EU1.68b), 1.0400 (EU1.58b) Source: financialjuice.com

4H
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