Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb
Exit Attachments

Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #81
  • Feb 11, 2025 1:40pm Feb 11, 2025 1:40pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Yes, the mind/brain is just a functional organ, just like heart is beating, brain must spew thousand of thoughts. I learned and comprehended allot about this subject. Soul is actually You, not your body and not your mind. My first guru who explain to my understanding was and continues to be Sadhguru(he is on youtube).
Well, that means we have differing opinions on the matter. We usually approach things through logic and reason.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #82
  • Feb 11, 2025 2:17pm Feb 11, 2025 2:17pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Well, that means we have differing opinions on the matter. We usually approach things through logic and reason.
Part of the mind/brain organ responsibility inside your body is to function as a a vessel that brings Logic and Reasoning, however, the same mind/brain functionality is also here to bring Anxiety, Fear and Greed(I am relating this discussion to trading).

Soul, which is You, should rule over your Mind, therefore should rule the MindFuck in trading.

P.S. wow, RoelsMajor, this is the most guru like statements I have ever written in a span of 1 hour.
  • #83
  • Edited 2:37pm Feb 11, 2025 2:27pm | Edited 2:37pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Part of the mind/brain organ responsibility inside your body is to function as a a vessel that brings Logic and Reasoning, however, the same mind/brain functionality is also here to bring Anxiety, Fear and Greed(I am relating this discussion to trading). Soul, which is You, should rule over your Mind, therefore should rule the MindFuck in trading. P.S. wow, RoelsMajor, this is the most guru like statements I have ever written in a span of 1 hour.
Well, I think mind isn't brain in our term, but who knows if you're American lol, maybe you know your language better. Have you ever learn Sobotta? We refer to the brain as merely an organ—the cerebrum, cerebellum, and so on. However, your mind is not processed solely within the brain; each aspect operates through distinct pathways, different locations, and separate small systems. Then, is your psychology course already popular? Lel
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #84
  • Feb 11, 2025 2:41pm Feb 11, 2025 2:41pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Well, I think mind isn't brain in our term, but who knows if you're American lol, maybe you know your language better. Have you ever learn Sobotta? We refer to the brain as merely an organ—the cerebrum, cerebellum, and so on. However, your mind is not processed solely within the brain; each aspect operates through distinct pathways, different locations, and separate small systems. Then, is your psychology course already popular? Lel
O my, I forgot you are a doctor ...my fault. Will leave it at that...and on to the next trade!
  • #85
  • Feb 11, 2025 2:43pm Feb 11, 2025 2:43pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} O my, I forgot you are a doctor ...my fault. Will leave it at that...and on to the next trade!
Among the many facts in medicine, there is one interesting story. If the part of the brain responsible for perceiving hunger is blocked, you will still feel hungry because another component—the "mind" (located in the stomach)—also signals the need to eat.

On to the next trade then... Lol
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #86
  • Feb 11, 2025 3:21pm Feb 11, 2025 3:21pm
Quote
Before he slept he reflected, as he had often reflected in other moments of triumph at the card table, that the gain to the winner is, in some odd way, always less than the loss to the loser.

Ian Fleming (in Moonraker)
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #87
  • Edited 10:38pm Feb 12, 2025 10:14pm | Edited 10:38pm
aDtr Today

Today, there are 15 pairs that meet the ADR (ATR) criteria of over 99, and there are numerous TVT edge setups (9 from 15 pairs, 8s Long, 1 Short), all of which are in positions since before the Asian session, it will yield good pips for a 1/3 ADR target. Unfortunately, can not open more than one position, can not be aggressive.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.piM15.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.piH1-Trade171-5.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.piM15.png Size: 26 KB
Attached Image
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #88
  • Feb 13, 2025 6:18am Feb 13, 2025 6:18am
Forex
ZERO Not Sum Game

Financial markets are not determined by the total number of sell or buy orders; it’s not a zero-sum game (at the end), but a game of extremes—the extremes of the markets. And 90%+ of traders still always lose da game.

Note:
In the stock market, one of the clear sign is that good company earns profits every quarter, generates cash, and distributes dividends periodically—even within the continuous auction market system.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #89
  • Feb 13, 2025 6:54am Feb 13, 2025 6:54am
Some wisdom heuristics always reminded in notes are:

  1. Do not trade before red news; trade at least 15 minutes after it.
  2. A daily profit target of 1/3 of today's ADR (ATR) is sufficient, as long as the trade size is proportional (not too small, not too large, and close to the Kelly criterion).

fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #90
  • Feb 13, 2025 5:03pm Feb 13, 2025 5:03pm
Quote
"I suspect that they put Socrates to death because there is something terribly unattractive, alienating, and nonhuman in thinking with too much clarity."
by: @nntaleb
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #91
  • Feb 13, 2025 6:16pm Feb 13, 2025 6:16pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} by: @nntaleb
They were playa haters
  • #92
  • Edited 7:31pm Feb 14, 2025 6:43pm | Edited 7:31pm
Weekend Data and Gap

Mowning (Goode Morning) to All!
There might be another large gap for JPY pairs similar to the end of January(?) The last trade hasn’t been closed yet.

CHF/JPY
Closing Price Broker MT4 169.194
Closing Price Netdania 168.540
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY.piH1-Trade 184-Weekend-2.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF_JPY (Bid)_ - 15 minutes - Candlestick.jpg Size: 141 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY.piM15-Big Gap.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #93
  • Feb 14, 2025 7:47pm Feb 14, 2025 7:47pm
Saturday, Weekend, Rain, and Time after time..

Cheerz

Inserted Video
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #94
  • Feb 15, 2025 10:06pm Feb 15, 2025 10:06pm
Quote
The most active days are those in which you try to do nothing.
(@nntaleb)
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #95
  • Feb 16, 2025 1:42am Feb 16, 2025 1:42am
Quote
While the meetings included traders, that is, people who are judged on their numerical performance, it was mostly a forum for salespeople (people capable of charming customers), and the category of entertainers called Wall Street “economists” or “strategists,” who make pronouncements on the fate of the markets, but do not engage in any form of risk taking, thus having their success dependent on rhetoric rather than actually testable facts.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #96
  • Edited Feb 17, 2025 2:50pm Feb 16, 2025 5:52pm | Edited Feb 17, 2025 2:50pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Weekend Data and Gap Mowning (Goode Morning) to All! There might be another large gap for JPY pairs similar to the end of January(?) The last trade hasn’t been closed yet. CHF/JPY Closing Price Broker MT4 169.194 Closing Price Netdania 168.540 {image} {image} {image}
Update:

The weekend closing price was rejected upward, Lol , which matched the interbank rate when the market opened. However, the broker opened almost an hour later. At most, could gain around 20 pips, but it’s impossible to close the trade when the spread is still around 14 pips. Little Luck!

Note: And shit happen! Big red candle after... Lel F-o-o-k Luck!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF_JPY (Bid)_ - 15 minutes - Candlestick.jpg Size: 139 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY.piH1-Trade183-6.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY.piM15.png Size: 27 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #97
  • Edited 7:50pm Feb 17, 2025 4:53pm | Edited 7:50pm
M2 Money Supply Inflation / Deflation Data (So far)

Teaching Deepseek or Chat-GPT not to mix up CPI inflation data with the actual inflation or deflation of a currency is like teaching a baby to repeat words. And Grok, especially discussing logic with Grok, there's no hope. Lel What can be gained from shorting NZD/JPY yesterday? Just 5 or 10 pips. Lel

CHM2 (CHF) +1.95%
USM2 (USD) +0.40%
GBM2 (GBP) +0.39%
JPM2 (JPY) +0.22%
EUM2 (EUR) +0.20%
CAM2 (CAD) +0.14%
AUM2 (AUD) No Data Estimate -1.00%
NZM2 (NZD) -1.61%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 13 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #98
  • Edited 4:27pm Feb 19, 2025 3:28pm | Edited 4:27pm
Notes on Daily Range:

The daily range is broadly divided into three parts—a foundational theory and practice often overlooked, and frequently rebranded across different time periods in forex trading:

  1. Range I: Formed during the Initial Balance (IB) and Asian Session up to the transition into the Frankfurt Session.
  2. Range II: Formed after the London Open.
  3. Range III: Formed after the New York Open until the end of the trading day.

Other indicators, regardless of which ones are used (especially for MT4), serve to estimate directional bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY.piM15.png Size: 30 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #99
  • Edited 5:47pm Feb 19, 2025 4:39pm | Edited 5:47pm
Today, there are 13 pairs with aDtr of 99 pips or higher. Let’s observe what happens until the London Open.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.piM15.png Size: 30 KB
Attached Image
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #100
  • Edited 8:41pm Feb 20, 2025 8:30pm | Edited 8:41pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Today, there are 13 pairs with aDtr of 99 pips or higher. Let’s observe what happens until the London Open. {image} {image} {image}
Observation Result:

So here are all the observation points from GU yesterday if your guess on the direction is correct, Range III Bull Run, but it's not necessarily guaranteed to yield good profits for a scalper. The timing of Entry (E) and where the stop loss (SL) is placed are influential, and there is no single consensus that everyone agrees on, but if you are lucky to buy at the bottom or top of the Dragon (EMA, moving average, mean), usually the price will not touch the SL point again. Good Luck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.piM15-20 February 2025.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
0 traders viewing now