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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #10,161
  • Feb 16, 2025 1:46am Feb 16, 2025 1:46am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Maybe I could explain Friday trading a bit more. You are right in thinking a short coming up at our trade time as was I, the H1 had the makings of a HD right on previous EMA level. The H1 EMA target was around 30 pips below. No trade yet.{image} The M15 showed no Bear divergence at this point but did start heading back to the EMA. No trade yet. {image}On the M5. Also no Bear divergence at our trade time that I could see and price comes back to the EMA and makes an ABCD. I am starting to think Long at this point due to the lack of divergence...
Thank 40PipsAlan for your guidance, i will paraphrasejust to make sure i'm not misunderstand, as english is not my language.
You mean: When H1 make HD possible, M15 at that time don't have bear DIV--> no trade here. Check M5, still no DIV bear here, price come back EMA, form ABCD, and seem can't build bear support for move down yet --> maybe HH with ABCD target at least.

All clue combine make you thought price may have chance to go up, but still unsure (70%up - 30% down) --> you put buy stop on M5 EMA swing high and short stop on open daily. And after that, bull support on M5 appear make you more confident price will go up.
  • #10,162
  • Feb 16, 2025 2:04am Feb 16, 2025 2:04am
Quoting eliotjng
{quote} Thank 40PipsAlan for your guidance, i will paraphrasejust to make sure i'm not misunderstand, as english is not my language. You mean: When H1 make HD possible, M15 at that time don't have bear DIV--> no trade here. Check M5, still no DIV bear here, price come back EMA, form ABCD, and seem can't build bear support for move down yet --> maybe HH with ABCD target at least. All clue combine make you thought price may have chance to go up, but still unsure (70%up - 30% down) --> you put buy stop on M5 EMA swing high and short stop on open daily....
sounds like you have it spot on. I tend to use a lot of pending trades to confirm the direction I think it is going. When it goes opposite to my way of thinking I watch closely because sometimes it does reverse quick. Take the small loss and have another pending trade waiting the other direction. The ranging zones are painful for me with price unable to decide direction.
  • #10,163
  • Feb 16, 2025 3:21am Feb 16, 2025 3:21am
Example of my hated trade on Thurs. H1 shows Bear divergence also M15. Here on the M5 we get a Bear support candle. Jump in with a short targeting the H1 EMA and what does it do? Decides to retest the last EMA swing taking me out for BE whilst I am away doing other stuff. It then hits my target because it hates me.
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  • #10,164
  • Feb 16, 2025 11:32pm Feb 16, 2025 11:32pm
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My view today, it seem stuck around 50% AB=CD, so we have down side target 2540
Currently, H1 still above EMA and RSI fast is rather low, any bear bar on H1 may form DIV bull, combine with GBP news may make spike kill short
  • #10,165
  • Feb 17, 2025 2:10am Feb 17, 2025 2:10am
Don't expect too much action today. Our American buddies are on holiday again.
  • #10,166
  • Feb 17, 2025 3:16am Feb 17, 2025 3:16am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Don't expect too much action today. Our American buddies are on holiday again.
Yep, and the market looks pretty scrappy. Sitting on hands today.

Anyway, my Internet has only just come back on. It has been off for about ten hours or so. It would be risky under these circumstances.
  • #10,167
  • Feb 17, 2025 4:16am Feb 17, 2025 4:16am
Bugger the Internet just went down again, glad I am not trading.
  • #10,168
  • Feb 17, 2025 4:21am Feb 17, 2025 4:21am
Quoting Nala66
Bugger the Internet just went down again, glad I am not trading.
My Broker data feed has stopped too. Never had that before.
  • #10,169
  • Feb 17, 2025 5:35am Feb 17, 2025 5:35am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} My Broker data feed has stopped too. Never had that before.
Trump/Musk must be closing everything down
  • #10,170
  • Feb 17, 2025 5:54am Feb 17, 2025 5:54am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Trump/Musk must be closing everything down
Has come back now boss after an hour of no data feed. Looks like i haven't missed much action. Best go fishing for the day.
  • #10,171
  • Feb 17, 2025 6:37pm Feb 17, 2025 6:37pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Has come back now boss after an hour of no data feed. Looks like i haven't missed much action. Best go fishing for the day.
This serves to warn us about always placing stops when placing trades. In the past I have had to call my broker to simply shut down the trade even for a loss. Times were more volatile then and one could easily be wiped out without a stop in place.

Stops are vital to ensure we never lose more than we feel acceptable. I see many trade without them thinking their trade MUST come good and so many lose big time.

Remember the rules:
1) Never add to a losing trade.
2) Never lose more than is acceptable.

The market is far more patient than we are and will wait to pounce on your account sooner or later. Don't join the suckers league unless you want to be a sucker.
  • #10,172
  • Feb 17, 2025 11:38pm Feb 17, 2025 11:38pm
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Yesterday market sideway, i give up after few hours.
It seem today H1 DIV REG bear make price comeback to EMA. H4 also in DIV bear so maybe target today will be ABCD or EMA H4
I would be more confident to short if it build bear support. RSI fast is bottom so in our trade time, will it build bear support?
  • #10,173
  • Edited 2:19am Feb 18, 2025 2:09am | Edited 2:19am
On the 15-min chart the ABCD has already hit the D1.

On the 1-hour chart we seem to be stuck between the 50% levels of the ABCD.

On the 5 and 15 we had bear HD's, but they failed to cross and find bear support
  • #10,174
  • Feb 18, 2025 2:44am Feb 18, 2025 2:44am
H1 Divergence failed to cross the EMA and find support= HH?
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  • #10,175
  • Feb 18, 2025 2:52am Feb 18, 2025 2:52am
Cheese and rice that wasn't much of a HH hey!
  • #10,176
  • Feb 18, 2025 3:34am Feb 18, 2025 3:34am
C'mon which way is it going to break.
  • #10,177
  • Feb 18, 2025 3:37am Feb 18, 2025 3:37am
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Ok, i'm warp up for today work. Move stop and pray for bear support on M5 work.

I'm short due to price reach ABCD 50% D and M15 DIV bear at EMA swing. The target is ABCD D1, but i'm doubt target can be reach as everything above EMA and all about build support bull.
  • #10,178
  • Feb 18, 2025 4:19am Feb 18, 2025 4:19am
At last, it made the average swing low. Some 20 bars to make 20 pips.
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  • #10,179
  • Feb 18, 2025 8:26pm Feb 18, 2025 8:26pm
And then it later turns to hit the D on the hour chart. I was well asleep by that time

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The thing to note is that it hit in Divergence and a nice trade short could also have been taken.
  • #10,180
  • Feb 18, 2025 11:08pm Feb 18, 2025 11:08pm
Quoting Nala66
And then it later turns to hit the D on the hour chart. I was well asleep by that time {image} The thing to note is that it hit in Divergence and a nice trade short could also have been taken.
The magic of target D, D', 50%D & 50%D'.
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