Only EURUSD

Sell 0428 - 20, TP before 0397

The EUR/USD exchange rate rose to 1.0429 yesterday following an announcement from Donald Trump stating that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to begin negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Currently, the pair is exhibiting a bullish trend, with potential targets at the 1.0441 zone and 1.0467, or even reaching 1.0500/34 if the upward momentum continues. The 1.0379 support level is currently holding the trend steady. However, if the pair drops below this support, the next likely level to watch would be 1.0350.

Green pips!


Daily volatility (range) 54 pips

Option expiries for Thursday: 1.0500 (EU2.04b), 1.0400 (EU1.7b), 1.0375 (EU1.36b) Source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims

4H

So do you think based on latest trend it will rise?

Good morning fellows!

Technical Analysis, Price Action & Key Levels

1. Current Price: Trading near 1.0455, approaching the critical resistance level of 1.0458.

Resistance Levels:

1. 1.0440, 1.0458, 1.0490, 1.0500:
2. 1.0530, 1.0575, 1.0600, 1.0624: Major hurdle.
3. Targeting 1.0575, 1.0624 if 1.0458 is breached decisively.

Support Levels:

1. 1.0397, 1.0378, 1.0365, 1.0355,1.0350: Immediate supports.
2. 1.0300,1.0290, 1.0270: Critical zone.

Fundamental Drivers:
Central Bank Policies:

1. ECB Dovishness: The ECB maintains rates at 2.90%, with weak Eurozone growth (Germany’s PMI at 42.5) pressuring the euro.
2. Fed Hawkishness: The Fed holds rates at 4.25–4.50%, supported by resilient U.S. labor data. Markets now price only a 40% chance of a 2025 rate cut post-CPI.

Economic Data:

1. U.S. CPI (Feb 12): Headline inflation rose 0.3% MoM, reinforcing Fed caution. Core CPI held at 3.1% YoY, limiting EUR/USD upside.
2. Eurozone GDP (Feb 14): Weak growth forecasts (e.g., Germany’s potential recession) could renew bearish pressure.

Geopolitical Risks:

1. Trade Wars: Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel/aluminum imports and threats against the EU/UK have fueled USD safe-haven demand. Retaliatory EU measures (e.g., counter-tariffs) remain a risk.
2. Middle East Tensions: Escalating conflicts bolster USD’s safe-haven appeal, capping EUR/USD gains.

Trump’s Statements & Impact:
Tariff Policies:

1. Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada/Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods, aiming to curb migration and drug trafficking. These measures could disrupt supply chains, raise consumer prices, and strain EU-U.S. trade relations.
2. Market Reaction: Initial USD strength faded as markets downplayed near-term escalation risks. EUR/USD rebounded to 1.0450 on fading tariff concerns.

Dollar & Trade War Rhetoric:

1. Trump emphasized using tariffs to “protect American jobs,” which could sustain USD strength through 2025. However, retaliatory tariffs (e.g., Mexico’s threats) risk weakening USD long-term.
2. USD Outlook: Tariffs may generate $100B/year in federal revenue but risk stagflation, complicating Fed policy.

War & Geopolitical Stance:

1. While Trump hasn’t directly addressed military conflicts, his focus on trade wars and energy dominance (e.g., boosting U.S. oil exports) indirectly supports USD as a global reserve currency.

Long-Term Outlook:

1. 2025 Forecast: Median year-end target at 1.0500, contingent on Fed easing and EU recovery. Parity (1.0000) risks persist if structural weaknesses deepen.
2. Institutional Views: Analysts project moderate EUR/USD gains to 1.1275 if Fed cuts rates, but geopolitical tensions and Trump’s policies favor USD dominance.

Risk Management:

1. Monitor Fed speeches and EU GDP data (Feb 14) for volatility.
2. Position sizing should account for tariff-related whipsaws.

Good luck!

Simple: H4 S&R!

Almost excellent ahmer! Just double check the ECB rate currently at 2.90% not 3.65% as you mention. Sure it is a typo!

Thanks for sharing!

Seeing so many things is sometimes confusing, Sorry for that, It has been corrected, Thank you for catching my mistake!

EURUSD H1
trendlines

So, time to sell??

Given these technical indicators, the outlook for EUR/USD appears bearish. Traders should monitor key support levels at 1.0350 and 1.0300. A break below these levels could signal further declines. Conversely, resistance levels are observed at 1.0450 and 1.0500; a move above these could indicate a potential reversal.

TP All

Waiting for Trump to announce reciprocal tarriffs as said by the media, but until then eu might rise again. Don't know what to do but wait.

1.0400 area is critical and must avoid choppy market!

DXY H1
trendlines

if we stay above S, it is good for sellers (eurusd)...
at least 2 candles (H1) above S

you may be right it's back above the trend line and now may rise

Looks like patience is key right now. If Trump announces reciprocal tariffs, we could see some sharp movements, but until then, EU might gain some ground. 1.0400 is definitely a critical zone, so avoiding choppy conditions is a smart move. Best to wait for a clear breakout or strong confirmation before making a move

dont u want to try dark theme on tw??

I will

Price reached almost 1.0442 which is critical for a continuation up to 1.0500 + but you also have to watch for 1.0467 resistance which might cap



4H possible scenarios for today and tomorrow.

Looking toward $0.06000
Attachment g

update
EURUSD H1
trendlines

this chart is totally bearish for me, if we are below today's top
pattern: rising wedge

Yes, but the market is still sleeping.

I am waiting for news to favor dollar but the uptrend is intact above todays low - 1 hour timeframe.

Many buts...