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Call me Vidvad - I day trade futures

  • #622
  • Feb 9, 2025 3:15am Feb 9, 2025 3:15am
Quoting medici
Indeed, there's no shortage of working strategies. For example the one in the video below. For manual trading I'd suggest an EMA100/5ATR channel for targets, so effectively a channel trading strategy. Works well for NQ/MNQ, but for the cash session I'd recommend rescaling things to the 15s timeframe due to the higher volatility. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbN9OpKgBJE
Take a strategy and master it.
The hardest strategy is finding/creating the first positive strategy. After that there is a glimmer of light, insight.
  • #623
  • Feb 9, 2025 3:38am Feb 9, 2025 3:38am
Quoting DwnUndrTrdr
{quote} Take a strategy and master it.
Excellent advice in relation to what you said earlier about trading education, i.e. asking the learner to master a given strategy, instead of the much harder task of developing a solid strategy on their own.
  • #624
  • Feb 9, 2025 3:57am Feb 9, 2025 3:57am
Quoting medici
{quote} Excellent advice in relation to what you said earlier about trading education, i.e. asking the learner to master a given strategy, instead of the much harder task of developing a solid strategy on their own.
I think it gives foundation, structure.
I never went to university or pursued formal education. I was a book reader and self taught. To my freedom, benefit, ignorance and deficit. I never received the structure of learning.
A strategy and adherence to one gives valuable insight.
Patience…..

PS: Forgive the appearance of self indulgence. It’s self indulgence and honesty
  • #625
  • Feb 9, 2025 8:36am Feb 9, 2025 8:36am
I allowed myself to be distracted by the noise of the forum and lost the signal.

Had to take time off from trading to just sit and watch.

Now I'm back on the road to recovering the roulette mindset.

Current chart needs no indicators other than those I use to tell me when my timing window is open and when it is closed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #626
  • Feb 9, 2025 9:58am Feb 9, 2025 9:58am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #627
  • Feb 9, 2025 2:09pm Feb 9, 2025 2:09pm
Quoting vidvad
I allowed myself to be distracted by the noise of the forum and lost the signal. Had to take time off from trading to just sit and watch. Now I'm back on the road to recovering the roulette mindset. Current chart needs no indicators other than those I use to tell me when my timing window is open and when it is closed. {image}
It’s good that you were professional enough to recognise you weren’t in your zone. Possible next step is to take that professionalism to the next level and maintain the mind of the trader that you wish to be. The professional trader.
That said we aren’t machines, well I’m not, and time away from the game in whichever form that takes is necessary to revitalise and progress.
  • #628
  • Feb 9, 2025 2:40pm Feb 9, 2025 2:40pm
So what system works synonymously with the casino epiphany?

I like this working concept of time based exits, and taking what the market gives you.
  • #629
  • Edited Feb 10, 2025 5:33am Feb 9, 2025 2:44pm | Edited Feb 10, 2025 5:33am
Quoting DwnUndrTrdr
{quote} It’s good that you were professional enough to recognise you weren’t in your zone. Possible next step is to take that professionalism to the next level and maintain the mind of the trader that you wish to be. The professional trader. That said we aren’t machines, well I’m not, and time away from the game in whichever form that takes is necessary to revitalise and progress.
At first, I was disappointed in myself for allowing myself so easily to lose my grip on this gift I received, that gift being the roulette epiphany.

However, from where I sit today, I realize that it was a form of "blessing in disguise." Even as recently as last night I was really beating myself up for how fragile my hold on the roulette mindset had been. But today, I know that because of the break it forced me to take and the observations and reflections I Made during that break, I really should never lose my way again.

The method I chose to apply the roulette mindset abides, and I am back to it and if anything, I am even in more firm command of it because I've reduced it to its simplest form yet. Furthermore, I developed a money management schematic for the method that is "self-adjusting" to market volatility.

What threw me off balance was that the increased volatility destroyed my initial money management approach. Why? Well, because my money management was arbitrary and based on what I wanted, rather than based on what the market was potentially set up to give me.

My current approach to money management is flexible with respect to volatility, but still rule based so as to eliminate discretion.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #630
  • Feb 9, 2025 6:42pm Feb 9, 2025 6:42pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} At first, I was disappointed in myself for allowing myself so easily to lose my grip on this gift I received, that gift being the roulette epiphany. However, from where I sit today, I realize that it was a form of "blessing in disguise." Een as recently as last night I was really beating myself up for how fragile my hold on the roulette mindset had been. But today, I know that because of the break it forced me to take and the observations and reflections I Made during that break, I really should never lose my way again. The method I chose...
You got it pal %
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #631
  • Feb 10, 2025 7:25am Feb 10, 2025 7:25am
Quoting MachineLearn
So what system works synonymously with the casino epiphany? I like this working concept of time based exits, and taking what the market gives you.
Any system will work with it, ML.

The roulette epiphany is a process enlightenment, not a strategy enlightenment.

The key element of the roulette epiphany is that so long as you are certain your methodology has an edge, then take each trade as it presents itself, and periods of extended drawdown are normal, and that you must trade through the drawdown so as to be certain of also being there when the system experiences an extended period of profitability.

As for the method I use, you asked before and I said my method is one I learned from Will Rogers: "Don’t gamble! Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it."

I don't at all mean to be flippant.

My method is simply "if it is going higher get long, if it is getting lower get short."

Pick a trading instrument you like, and a time frame you like, and apply that principle. Add some money manegement in the form of a stop losss and take profit strategy, and you're good to go.

I know many say "the edge is the trader."

That is 100% NOT true.

The edge is your trading plan combined with your ability to execute your plan.

I saw turnip made a post today showing a system he is using. If you can take the trades, cut your losses, and remember to take profits, his system is as good as mine.

Pick one that you can trade comfortably.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #632
  • Feb 10, 2025 7:56am Feb 10, 2025 7:56am
"I know many say "the edge is the trader."

That is 100% NOT true."

Wrong, it is totally TRUE. The Edge is the trader.

Flip a coin and make an entry into the market...and now it is up to you, the trader and not the market to be a winner or to be a loser.
  • #633
  • Feb 10, 2025 8:04am Feb 10, 2025 8:04am
Quoting driven18
"I know many say "the edge is the trader." That is 100% NOT true." Wrong, it is totally TRUE. The Edge is the trader. Flip a coin and make an entry into the market...and now it is up to you, the trader and not the market to be a winner or to be a loser.
Nope.

Give the most disciplined trader a system with negative expectancy he won't magically conjure profits from it.

Math is math, and an edge is mathematically derived.

A coin flip method won't yield long run profits.

Given transaction costs, a 50/50 method will slowly bleed the account dry.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #634
  • Feb 10, 2025 8:09am Feb 10, 2025 8:09am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Nope. Give the most disciplined trader a system with negative expectancy he won't magically conjure profits from it. Math is math, and an edge is mathematically derived. A coin flip method won't yield long run profits. Given transaction costs, a 50/50 method will slowly bleed the account dry.
I agree that edge is mathematically derived. I call it statistics.

I disagree(for the last time) on the other stuff.

No one has any idea what market will do a second from now.

5% of winning traders will have discipline to deal with it. 95% of other traders will wish, hope and pray for market to go the direction of the trade.
  • #635
  • Feb 10, 2025 8:16am Feb 10, 2025 8:16am
Quoting driven18
{quote} No one has any idea what market will do a second from now.
I agree, and as Mark Douglas taught, "you don't need to know what is going to happen next to make money."

But that fact should not lead one to conclude that random entries will somehow yield long run profits.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #636
  • Feb 10, 2025 9:22am Feb 10, 2025 9:22am
Edward Thorp on gaining an edge in the market and in life
Inserted Video
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #637
  • Feb 10, 2025 9:34am Feb 10, 2025 9:34am
Quoting vidvad
Edward Thorp on gaining an edge in the market and in life https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hssp...vestingchannel
That is an excellent video. He makes some great points... Probably wise to listen to a guy who had only three down months out of 230 months.

Cheers
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #638
  • Feb 10, 2025 9:36am Feb 10, 2025 9:36am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} That is an excellent video. He makes some great points... Probably wise to listen to a guy who had only three down months out of 230 months. Cheers
And he's 92 and looks like mid 60's tops.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #639
  • Feb 10, 2025 9:42am Feb 10, 2025 9:42am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} And he's 92 and looks like mid 60's tops.
He obviously was exploiting an edge in his personal health and fitness.
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #640
  • Feb 10, 2025 9:50am Feb 10, 2025 9:50am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} And he's 92 and looks like mid 60's tops.

he does not excite his body so much like average Joe.
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