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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #61
  • Feb 6, 2025 4:14pm Feb 6, 2025 4:14pm
aDtr Today

13 pairs
Get ready for Friday 7!
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  • #62
  • Edited 7:39pm Feb 7, 2025 3:20pm | Edited 7:39pm
Heuristics for the Gaming Prop Firm today update:

Negativa, always remove what we already know is wrong or bad. Reduction.

1. An account above 100K is not sustainable for a prop firm. The payout can be too large for a trader in a single month if they succeed. Imagine if the 10% target is reached — that’s already an 8K payout from just one account 100k, even though the current overall target still very tough 20% (which is unrealistic for monhtly). Accounts under 25K, as well, are not very significant for profit—except in low-income countries; this isn’t the case for middle-income or high-income countries.

2. Cap the number of accounts to just one at a time. This prevents manipulation practices, such as account hedging, by having multiple accounts. However, if a hedging detection tool can be developed, it would be acceptable for the prop firm to offer multiple accounts.

3. Static challenge is mandatory. Trailing loss cap dd (balance/equity) is not part of real-world trading. A 7% profit target and a -7% drawdown are within the normal distribution limits in a month. If this gaming prop firm is always on the lookout for extreme traders above limit, then it's just lol policy, without a real live account after funded.
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  • #63
  • Edited 8:55am Feb 8, 2025 8:14am | Edited 8:55am
Wine-tasting: it's junk science.

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His studies have irritated many figures in the industry. "They say I'm full of bullshit but that's OK. I'm proud of what I do. It's part of my academic background to find the truth."


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People could tell the difference between wines under £5 and those above £10 only 53% of the time for whites and only 47% of the time for reds. Overall they would have been just as a successful flipping a coin to guess.
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Meanwhile the blind tasting contests go on. Robert Hodgson is determined to improve the quality of judging. He has developed a test that will determine whether a judge's assessment of a blind-tasted glass in a medal competition is better than chance. The research will be presented at a conference in Cape Town this year. But the early findings are not promising. "So far I've yet to find someone who passes," he says.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/lifeands...ience-analysis
Warning: This article more than 11 years old!
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  • #64
  • Edited 5:07pm Feb 8, 2025 10:40am | Edited 5:07pm
Reviewing the TVT PVSRA Setup from GU yesterday:

1. The Asian session showed many signs of high activity below the Dragon, and the Dragon was pointing downward. A bullish pattern was forming.
2. High buy activity finally appeared before the Frankfurt Open.
3. Price was then pushed upward, breaking through the Dragon and Golden Belt, but later retraced downward below the Golden Belt and above the Dragon.
4. High activity occurred during news releases. Price then trended upward again, breaking through the Dragon and Golden Belt.
5. However, it stalled at the previous resistance area.
6. Price was then pulled down, with signs of high sell activity.
7. It reached the previous day’s Support area and gradually retraced below the Dragon.

Ideal Entry Point Criteria (based on post #42):

1. Not before the London Open
2. Do not trade against the Dragon and Golden Belt
3. Do not speculate on Red News
4. Points 4 and 5 after Red News may be entry areas 15 minutes after
5. Without a proper Stop Loss, or one that is too small, your trade will quickly turn into a loss
6. Instead of a small SL, use one that is appropriate to the 14-day ATR, which is 38 pips, or place it above the last Resistance
7. The end result is a 1:1 Reward or more (in theory)

In yesterday's trading, I opened 3 trades, one trade at a time, but with small stop-losses (SL) set well before the London Open. It wasn’t ideal at all, although it still resulted in a decent profit percentage. Strong Long bias
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  • #65
  • Feb 8, 2025 1:59pm Feb 8, 2025 1:59pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Wine-tasting: it's junk science. {quote} {quote}{quote} {quote} Source: https://www.theguardian.com/lifeands...ience-analysis Warning: This article more than 11 years old! {image}
I once brought a €250 wine to a party and jokingly said that the wine only cost €25 - everyone agreed that it couldn't be a good wine!
  • #66
  • Edited 5:08pm Feb 8, 2025 4:35pm | Edited 5:08pm
- And you should only trade if there’s an edge (on whichever currency pair it appears as has been determined by your criterias); long visuals are better than short visuals because of how our eyes work -
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  • #67
  • Feb 8, 2025 7:52pm Feb 8, 2025 7:52pm
Quoting RowanYoung
{quote} I once brought a €250 wine to a party and jokingly said that the wine only cost €25 - everyone agreed that it couldn't be a good wine!
Lel. You should be the one getting paid big bucks to be an expert wine tester.
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  • #68
  • Edited 8:27am Feb 9, 2025 8:07am | Edited 8:27am
Quote
I want to know the amount of M2 money supply in circulation, presented in a table for GBP and USD overall for the last 4 months, indicating which one shows inflation and which one shows deflation. Look at the TradingView Economic-USM2 or Economic-GBM2 for the data


DeepSeek R1 + Search:
Latest Analysis

Based on the available data from TradingView (Economic-GBM2) and other sources, here’s a summary of the M2 money supply for GBP and USD over the last four months (November 2024 to February 2025). Inflation/deflation is inferred from monthly changes in M2, as sustained growth in money supply often correlates with inflationary pressures, while contraction suggests deflationary trends .

Key Observations
1. GBP M2:
- Inflationary Period: November–December 2024 saw modest growth (+0.39% to +0.19%), indicating mild inflation .
- Deflationary Shift: By January–February 2025, M2 contracted (-0.23% to -0.39%), signaling deflationary pressures .
2. USD M2:
- Deflation in November 2024: M2 dropped by -0.5%, likely due to tighter monetary policy .
- Recovery in December–February: Gradual growth (+0.16% to +0.77%) suggests renewed inflationary trends .

Data Sources and Methodology
- GBP Data: Derived from the Bank of England and Trading Economics, with December 2024 values at 3.089 T GBP.
- USD Data: Based on Trading Economics forecasts, with actual December 2024 M2 at 21,533.80 B USD .
- Inflation/Deflation: Classified using monthly M2 growth rates. Sustained growth ≥0.1% = inflation; contraction = deflation .

Limitations
- GBP: Recent data for February 2025 is preliminary and subject to revision .
- USD: Forecasts for January–February 2025 are speculative and may not reflect actual policy shifts .

For real-time updates, refer to:
- [TradingView: UK M2](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ECONOMICS-GBM2/)
- [Trading Economics: US M2 Forecast](https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/money-supply-m2)

Note: For many years, I don't know why the Fed St. Louis hasn't been releasing its M2 report regularly, while the Bank of England is still able to provide the data.
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  • #69
  • Feb 9, 2025 9:55am Feb 9, 2025 9:55am
3. Static challenge is mandatory. Trailing loss cap dd (balance/equity) is not part of real-world trading. A 7% profit target and a -7% drawdown are within the normal distribution limits in a month. If this gaming prop firm is always on the lookout for extreme traders above limit, then it's just lol policy, without a real live account after funded.

I agree with this statement. Over last 3 years of Live trading(no props), my goal is +10% a month and therefore I often withstand -10, -12% Relative DD.
  • #70
  • Feb 9, 2025 10:51am Feb 9, 2025 10:51am
Quoting driven18
3. Static challenge is mandatory. Trailing loss cap dd (balance/equity) is not part of real-world trading. A 7% profit target and a -7% drawdown are within the normal distribution limits in a month. If this gaming prop firm is always on the lookout for extreme traders above limit, then it's just lol policy, without a real live account after funded. I agree with this statement. Over last 3 years of Live trading(no props), my goal is +10% a month and therefore I often withstand -10, -12% Relative DD.
I don't blame your target, but for me personally, given everything I’ve explained, 10% per month is still too high. A maximum would be 7% per month. If you’ve been successful over the past three years, what’s the approximate annual profit percentage? And with how much capital did you start? If you don’t want to answer, that’s okay. And if I’m not mistaken, you trade futures, right? If you've been successful for three years, you should consider applying to reputable real prop firms around the world—unless, of course, you simply prefer trading independently.
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  • #71
  • Feb 9, 2025 10:56am Feb 9, 2025 10:56am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} I don't blame your target, but for me personally, given everything I’ve explained, 10% per month is still too high. A maximum would be 7% per month. If you’ve been successful over the past three years, what’s the approximate annual profit percentage? And with how much capital did you start? If you don’t want to answer, that’s okay. And if I’m not mistaken, you trade futures, right?
Yes, I trade futures. After spending 14 hours a day for 5 years developing my techniques and learning how to control MindFuck, I had a nice size capital but started live trading with 1 micro contract and build on it, adding 1 micro contact each positive week and subtracting 1 micro contract each negative week. My goal is 100% a year.
  • #72
  • Feb 9, 2025 11:03am Feb 9, 2025 11:03am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Yes, I trade futures. After spending 14 hours a day for 5 years developing my techniques and learning how to control MindFuck, I had a nice size capital but started live trading with 1 micro contract and build on it, adding 1 micro contact each positive week and subtracting 1 micro contract each negative week. My goal is 100% a year.
Okay, 100% per annum is incredible, but the target should not be 10% but rather 5.95% per month. If calculated with annual compounding, it becomes 100.08% per annum.
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  • #73
  • Feb 9, 2025 11:07am Feb 9, 2025 11:07am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Okay, 100% per annum is incredible, but the target should not be 10% but rather 5.95% per month. If calculated with annual compounding, it becomes 100.08% per annum.
My goal is 10% a month, regardless compounding(not every month is the same % profit), new month - new 10%.
  • #74
  • Feb 9, 2025 11:19am Feb 9, 2025 11:19am
Quoting driven18
{quote} My goal is 10% a month, regardless compounding(not every month is the same % profit), new month - new 10%.
Ah yeah yeah, I’ve also thought about this before, like when we open a trade with a 1% risk. However, if the trade is going poorly, it might still be possible to secure a small positive outcome, say 0.3%, instead of rigidly targeting 0.3% and risking a -0.3% loss. Good way.
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  • #75
  • Feb 9, 2025 4:28pm Feb 9, 2025 4:28pm
Today's aDtr

12 pairs. The CAD and JPY gap looks extremely large. See ya after the London Open.
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  • #76
  • Feb 10, 2025 4:07pm Feb 10, 2025 4:07pm
Today's aDtr

13 Pairs
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  • #77
  • Feb 11, 2025 5:32am Feb 11, 2025 5:32am
"What is the greatest success in life? To have a clear, rational mind and a pure, untainted heart. That’s why there’s nothing wrong with looking in the mirror alone on some mornings."
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  • #78
  • Feb 11, 2025 10:49am Feb 11, 2025 10:49am
Quoting RoelsMajor
"What is the greatest success in life? To have a clear, rational mind and a pure, untainted heart. That’s why there’s nothing wrong with looking in the mirror alone on some mornings."
I think greatest success in life as it relates to this subject is to realize, that

Mind is just another organ in your human body and "You are not your mind and You have power over your mind"
  • #79
  • Edited 2:17pm Feb 11, 2025 11:05am | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} I think greatest success in life as it relates to this subject is to realize, that Mind is just another organ in your human body and "You are not your mind and You have power over your mind"
Some call it the mind; sometimes, for more religious reasons, it’s referred to as the soul. The mind is not an organ but rather the result of processes within the body (organs), such as the brain (neural activity), neurotransmitters, chemical signals, physical receptors, and so on. It’s actually simple: You think, therefore you are (exist). A human, A mind.
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  • #80
  • Edited 2:01pm Feb 11, 2025 1:02pm | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Some call it the mind; sometimes, for more religious reasons, it’s referred to as the soul. The mind is not an organ but rather the result of processes within the body, such as the brain (neural activity), neurotransmitters, chemical signals, physical receptors, and so on. It’s actually simple: You think, therefore you are (exist). A human, A mind.
Yes, the mind/brain is just a functional organ, just like heart is beating, brain must spew thousand of thoughts. I learned and comprehended allot about this subject.

Soul is actually You, not your body and not your mind.

My first guru who explain it to my understanding was and continues to be Sadhguru(he is on youtube).
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