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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #12,081
  • Jul 28, 2007 8:01pm Jul 28, 2007 8:01pm
Quoting mrroboto
That was your chance to buy, and you blew it. next stop 251.00 according to my crystal ball. LOL
runner up to the most ridiculous post of the week
  • #12,082
  • Jul 28, 2007 9:18pm Jul 28, 2007 9:18pm
Quoting Que
I am not making any calls, as I obviously suck at making trades. I am still learning. I am just currious what others think.



Que,

Here's my 2 cents and then some.

On one level, you are smarter than most traders. Limited to such a small trading account balance, through controlling both the size of your entries (micro lots) and the extent of your losses, you’ve allowed yourself the opportunity to execute nearly 200 trades in this account and still have ~66% of your account remaining to trade another day. That’s a lot of trade executions and a lot of trade experience gained. Can you improve the timing of your entries with the next 200 trades while maintaining the same risk management? Then you’ll surely succeed.

Success comes through repetition provided it is coupled with proper corrections until a desired consistency is reached.

In any physical activity such as golf and other sport this is called muscle memory... a form of neuro-physical training occurs. Whether it is a muscle or even a thought coupled with an action, repeated time and time again, each repetition creates a 'filament or groove' (a linkage so to speak) in the nervous system which is processed and stored in the brain and throughout the associated neural pathways. Every thought has form just as every action. Each repeated repetition (physical or mental) causes its own neuronal pathway or 'groove' to form and deepen to where if maintained can result in consistent repeatable actions. The intended affect, such as the same golf swing, becomes more repeatable each and every time. Even new nerve fibers form for each of these mental and / or physical actions (like liquid flowing towards the goal) until there is a solid pathway created to produce the newly formed action. This is why it is being called ‘plasticity’ in neurophysiology. Amazingly, marvelously, magnificently even a paralyzed limb still has the potential and capacity to be restored to function, despite the considered known limitations of matter.

Still, little is known as to the capacity of matter and its limitations. What is known, through recent discoveries into ‘plasticity’, now greatly reduces the former notions into these so called limitations and what really can or can’t be reached or fully harnessed to produce the desired repair or effect. So never say, never! And, why not expect a miracle today.

Lee Trevino never considered himself to have any raw, natural talent toward golf... but he had desire and guts. He was a 'bag boy' / caddie even in his 20’s to earn the money to golf because he couldn’t afford to play the game but said he committed himself to hitting 300 golf balls each and every day. That's a lot of swings… a lot of plasticity occurring in his nervous system. Most golfers hit a bucket of balls (30 or 50), then go out and play a live round of golf… first shooting 90 - 120 strokes and then walk away and then return the following week to repeat the same inconsistency and still improve their games to even shave enough strokes down to shooting in the 80's over time.

With such a late start at the game, as an amateur, Lee got so good he'd challenge unsuspecting golfers to a wager where he would only tee off using a coke bottle rather than a driver. Who wouldn't take that bet? He was known to have suckered enough duffers into 'his game' and ended up taking their money. He is considered one of the greatest to have played the game.


Best regards,

Dr. D.
  • #12,083
  • Jul 28, 2007 10:28pm Jul 28, 2007 10:28pm
Dr D.

Thanks for your reply. I broke down last week and lost more last week then I did the 6 weeks prior. I know what happened and corrected my mistake. It was me being mentaly on tilt and trying to "Buy Back" my losses. Rookie mistake and I learned a lesson.

If you have not seen it, take a look at my Money Management CalcuLog.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=38909

It may not fit your style, but it is accurate. I am currently trying to learn a decient system. I am part of the PF and the problem is not the information within the forum, it is my interpretation of it. I see how it is sucessful, I seem to lack the trading dicipline (Muscle Memory) to be consistant in making only A trades.

I hope to learn more from you guys......

Speaking of witch, what do you think about the trend lines and confluence of the current GJ. I am not calling a long here, but it looks like it is hitting a few points of definate support.
Que
  • #12,084
  • Jul 28, 2007 10:44pm Jul 28, 2007 10:44pm
I hope that you don't think of it as a joke , it's serious

Next step 230 , 222 then 201

If i am not mistaken

Many thanks
  • #12,085
  • Jul 28, 2007 10:51pm Jul 28, 2007 10:51pm
Quoting Clusterwise
I hope that you don't think of it as a joke , it's serious

Next step 230 , 222 then 201

If i am not mistaken

Many thanks

I do not think you are "Joking". But if you are going to make a 4000 pip call, do you not think it prudent to back it up with something?

I am not saying you are wrong, as you very well may be right. But the fact is, you just posted some numbers my wife could have posted. They mean nothing without anything to back it up to me.

Assuming you are right that it will hit 201, I am sure there will be Several more "Stops" along the way then you posted. Even this pair, as volitile as it does, does not usually make a 4000 pip run so smoothly. Granted in October of 1998 it went down 3500 pips in 1 week without much resistance at all.
Que
  • #12,086
  • Jul 28, 2007 11:16pm Jul 28, 2007 11:16pm
Quoting Que
I do not think you are "Joking". But if you are going to make a 4000 pip call, do you not think it prudent to back it up with something?

I am not saying you are wrong, as you very well may be right. But the fact is, you just posted some numbers my wife could have posted. They mean nothing without anything to back it up to me.

Assuming you are right that it will hit 201, I am sure there will be Several more "Stops" along the way then you posted. Even this pair, as volitile as it does, does not usually make a 4000 pip run so smoothly. Granted in October of 1998 it went down 3500 pips in 1 week without much resistance at all.

Does your wife know about terminal Impulse ???

Take a look to the leader USDJPY

GBPJPY chart is not ready yet, I will post it as soon as I finish my calculations

Many thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,087
  • Jul 28, 2007 11:25pm Jul 28, 2007 11:25pm
no kidding.

Quoting Spanishfly
Hi Angler... I am a forex and share trader for the last 6 years.I have been monitoring FF for the last 1 year. I have been studying auslaco's post from last Monday.I will tell you why people are crazy over Auslanco strategy. After visiting so many forums I have never seen a trader like Auslanco who is more sure about break out. His strategy is a break out strategy .When the whole world was not sure what happening to the GBP/JPY on monday.. only Auslanco was 100% sure it's going down . He also gave reasons. This guy is the real deal.Iam not a newbie. Iam a experinced trader. The most atrraction to auslanco is he's damn good trend catcher and he like to share it with new trader, unlike some other pricks ("b") here.
sorry for my english
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #12,088
  • Jul 28, 2007 11:25pm Jul 28, 2007 11:25pm
Like I said, just post something to back up a 4000 pip claim. I did not say you were wrong, I just would like to see something more then 3 numbers.

If you were calling 100 pips, a few words would be great. But when you publicly call 4000 pips.......
Que
  • #12,089
  • Jul 29, 2007 12:02am Jul 29, 2007 12:02am
Quoting Spanishfly
Hi Angler... I am a forex and share trader for the last 6 years.I have been monitoring FF for the last 1 year. I have been studying auslaco's post from last Monday.I will tell you why people are crazy over Auslanco strategy. After visiting so many forums I have never seen a trader like Auslanco who is more sure about break out. His strategy is a break out strategy .When the whole world was not sure what happening to the GBP/JPY on monday.. only Auslanco was 100% sure it's going down . He also gave reasons. This guy is the real deal.Iam not a newbie. Iam a experinced trader. The most atrraction to auslanco is he's damn good trend catcher and he like to share it with new trader, unlike some other pricks ("b") here.
sorry for my english
I dont know how a trader can be good if he
-didnt know the simplest rules for trading
-left his work and charts and keep posting a post every 2 sceconds
-a trader whose left 300 pips drop on the table and sell after this and saying the hourly candle didn't turned bearish yet
-trader whose sell low and buy high
-trader that based his whole analysis on indicators

look at his calls man!!

and why people are crazy about him!!
this is always happened
I saw this in many forums
anyone can come to a public forum and say I'm an old trader and will give a free signal to all and the people will appreciating this

you know why
cause all those people are the losers
and those losers always look for recovery
so they look for any chance to recover, any hope
even if this hope from a public forum
and believe me the end of those stories didn't beautiful every time

and about the early calling for the drop
you can search the thread about a guy called MKTrader
this is the real trader
he speak about this very early

Quoting MKTrader
Hi guys,

I'm a long-term trader in GJ pair and i had some forecast about of GJ in here usually my forecast have good accuracy.

I think GJ will be break ~251 to ~235... also i checked all JPY pairs i think JPY is very strognly in remain 2007.

If i find a suitable point in next week i'll sell GJ as long-term same as the past times and i post in here.

PLEASE DO NOT SELL GJ YET! GJ IS IN A STRONG RESISTANCE LINE AT 251

Good luck.
look at his entries/exits/planning/target
this is the real trader
and you know even he is a long term trader
he didn't found the time to post regularly here
  • #12,090
  • Jul 29, 2007 1:34am Jul 29, 2007 1:34am
Quoting Que
Like I said, just post something to back up a 4000 pip claim. I did not say you were wrong, I just would like to see something more then 3 numbers.

If you were calling 100 pips, a few words would be great. But when you publicly call 4000 pips.......

There are people calling for U/J to drop down to 108-109 area!! It's based on the ending diagonal in elliotwave analysis. These waves exhibits sharp reversal upon completion of wave 5 and retraces 100% minimum to the start of the wave.

I dont know if that 4000 pips call would be true, but if you look at the G/J chart, there's one possibility (fromed around june 8th) right now and we are doing a big sharp retrace back, targeting 237 area.

It's interesting to see if G/J will in fact drop down below 220, but even if it does, it still fits well within ew analysis as wave 4. We should then ride the wave up to 270 later ... of course, I dont mean this year.
  • #12,091
  • Jul 29, 2007 2:05am Jul 29, 2007 2:05am
I am very new to this kind of trading. I have been going through babypips.com and I understand a great deal of it. I just don't know how to plot the charts. They don't describe in detail how to do it. It is very general, I guess this is because they expect the person to know how to do it. Is there anywhere I can go to teach me how to input EMA's and SMA's? To be able to identify a retracement or a retractment. I tried to do it myself and put some trades in a demo and hit my SL everytime. My primary way of trading has been very good to me, I have $5000 of extra money that I want to put into this style of trading, but I want to understand how to do it before I jump in. I started trading in March and I'm at 120% right now. I now that you all have put in some major hours developing your systems and strageties. I am not looking for the quick $$$, I'm looking to be able to understand what's going on and to be able to be an asset to this forum. I don't believe in riding on the coattails of the successful trader. I'm using interbank, FYI.

Thank you all for your time.

Brandon
  • #12,092
  • Jul 29, 2007 3:26am Jul 29, 2007 3:26am
hi...


Your 120% up since March....why mess with your trading as that is a good amount your earning...

Why not just increase the number of lots your trading within reason of course depending on the MM your using..

You would be surprised the number of people that have a good system working but still cant help themself in looking at other systems...
  • #12,093
  • Jul 29, 2007 3:37am Jul 29, 2007 3:37am
I think we can seriously think about 230 next week.
  • #12,094
  • Jul 29, 2007 3:43am Jul 29, 2007 3:43am
Quoting Angler
hi...


Your 120% up since March....why mess with your trading as that is a good amount your earning...

Why not just increase the number of lots your trading within reason of course depending on the MM your using..

You would be surprised the number of people that have a good system working but still cant help themself in looking at other systems...
I understand completely what you are saying, but to be honest the way I trade is very conservative and I am comfortable with it. By no means am I going to put the bulk of my investment into this. That would be the stupidest thing that I could do. I would just like to get into something a little more fast moving, that requires thought, and has you on the edge of your seat! I'm just trying to diversify a little. I have a program that tells me what to buy, I buy it and then just wait for a minimum 6% before I close and do it all over again. So there really is no "feeling of accomplishment". I'm not physically calculating anything.
  • #12,095
  • Jul 29, 2007 4:18am Jul 29, 2007 4:18am
Quoting Clusterwise
I hope that you don't think of it as a joke , it's serious

Next step 230 , 222 then 201

If i am not mistaken

Many thanks
When NewstraderFX post something, he gives an explanation of some fundamentals. Then he makes a call of the possible direction. One understand what and why he did it. We see his point of view and analysis. Often he post even a chart. That is the meaning of discussion. This is a place, I suppose, of discussion on GBP/JPY analysis and not a journal. If we start posting charts and arguments on our analysis, others will be able to learn and experienced traders would be attracted to comment and add their professional views. Unless the Pro's sees a reason to participate, our trading knowledge will stagnate at the present level.
Maybe we could all post not only a call but also WHY.
If we are new traders, we will get a word of correction from the older traders. And the older traders may be helped by having their memories refreshed.
I certainly detest those who have an attitude to constantly laugh and humilate others.
Some funny jokes in between calm trading time seems to be a good idea too.
  • #12,096
  • Jul 29, 2007 2:18pm Jul 29, 2007 2:18pm
Quoting Scrat
i hope everyone enjoyed the ride. right now we're at 38.2 fibo retracement from the last run between 221.07 and 251.08. there's still room down to 50% retracement but this one would be tested later.
by the way... july 20th was one of the days marked by sq9 time calculator (gann users know what i'm talking about)... september 3-4 is next one.
have a great weekend.
I assume Sept 3rd-4th will be the low reversal, correct?

Z
  • #12,097
  • Jul 29, 2007 2:32pm Jul 29, 2007 2:32pm
i get 150 pips after open forex

good
  • #12,098
  • Jul 29, 2007 2:44pm Jul 29, 2007 2:44pm
is it gonna go down or retrace?
  • #12,099
  • Jul 29, 2007 3:13pm Jul 29, 2007 3:13pm
Quoting auslanco
just thought you may be able to help us find a charity in africa, which what I had in my mind initialy and take controll of this fund thing... or may be with Blue Rose.
Hey, i heard about this organization called Doctors for Life. They work in africa... i'll find out more. but i think they are a good organization.
  • #12,100
  • Jul 29, 2007 3:39pm Jul 29, 2007 3:39pm
What The Fudge Just Happened? Whats Happening. Damn!
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