Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Quoting auslanco

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Forex Toss a coin strategy

Win Rate 30%
Investment $1700

Toss a coin at every London start and Buy or Sell

1 mini lot
Pair GBP/JPY
SL 40pips (2%)
TP 120pips(6%)

3/10 wins . Do your math. You still make money.

The whole idea about the above example is to point out if you have a sound money management plan and even if your trading strategy is crap, you still make money. If you have a strategy which only gives 50% winning trades coupled with a sound money management strategy that’s more than enough for you to make loads of cash.

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Quoting fourxtrader

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Looks good anyway you calculate it!

7 losses at 40 pips = -280

3 wins at 120 pips = +360
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average net gain per trade = +80

21.25 trading sessions per month
21.25 X +80 = +1700 pips per month per mini lot traded

Dr. D.

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Quoting auslanco

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Dear traders....
I decided to start my own thread because there are some other great traders who can provide very valuable analysis of GBP/JPY on the other thread , and I feel that my trade calls are overshadowing those good analysis contributed by other experienced traders.
This thread is mainly focused for new traders who want to learn my trading methods.

Money Management & Trading habits:
Maximum 2% risk per pair. What that means is when you calculate your stop losses your stop loss amount has to be within 2% of your account .If the trade goes against you, the maximum you will loose is 2% of your account. This way it also prevents you from getting panic attacks when the trade retrace against you resulting you close the trade pre maturely. If your desired stop losses do not come within 2% of your account don’t take that trade. As I always say, you may miss one trade but there are millions more to come.
You always have to calculate your risk every time before you enter your trades.
Your risk to profit ratio has to be minimum 1:1. That means if you are taking a 2% risk on a trade make sure your profit target would be at least 2%.
Always have realistic targets. My aim is 300 % capital growth per year. The lesser your target is lesser the risk of losing your own money. Even if you have 50% capital growth per year you are doing better than 90% of the worlds biggest hedge funds.
More trades you take the more you expose your account for losses. No trader in this world can profit from every single market move.
Patience plays a big part in trading. Take the trades only if you are at least 90% sure of profiting from it. If you are not sure stay away from the trade. Staying on the sideline is as good as winning.
Never trade against the trend. Specially with a high volatile pair like GBP/JPY. It may give you couple of winning trades. But it’s going to get you in the long run.
Always have a trading strategy ... make a habit to stick to it doesn’t matter how desperate you are. Always trust your strategy but not bloomberg or some statement from citibank. Don’t go with your gut feeling because 95% of the time your gut feeling is wrong.
Your charts are your forex bible. Everything what you need to know about forex is on your charts. You will learn something new everyday from you charts.
Specialize in one or two pairs. Every single pair has it’s own characteristics. No two pairs are the same. Don’t trade all the pairs your broker can offer. If you specialize in one or two pairs very soon you will be able to read the pair like a road map .
Stay away from the ranging markets. There will be enough of trend break outs on this pair than you ever want. Why take any extra risks trying to chase 20 pips on a ranging markets when you can grab 200 pips on a break out.
As Monarc mentioned traders are a greedy bunch. Less greedy once are the most successful once.
Don’t try to chase every single pip or market movement. Have a realistic weekly or monthly target as a percentage of your account . Not the number of pips. If you have already achieved that target stay away from the market. As I mentioned before.. the more you trade there is more risk of losing your money.
The losses are part of the game. Do not try to cover all your previous losses from your next trade. First your trading plan has to include at least 50% of losing trades. Then you can cut down on the number of losing trades while you gain experience and confidence.
When you start you must demo trade at least for the first 3 months to build a trading strategy. Then for the next 3 months trade on a demo account or a micro account and test your strategy coupled with a good money management strategy. When you are fully confident then trade with your real account.
Use minimum account leverage. Don’t abuse it. My recommendation for new traders is maximum one mini lot for every $2500 or one full lot for every $25000.
At last ... remember there is no easy way to become a good consistently profitable trader. No one can become a profitable trader overnight. As everything else in life it takes time, patience lots of sacrifices and learning. Don’t be afraid of mistakes.
It took me 8 months to make my first consistent $100 per week. Since then making money is like a walk in the park.

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Quoting Que

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Actually its 80 pips total for the 10 trades and +8 pips per trade average.

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Quoting auslanco

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Today I decided to write about my trading startegy. Culdnt figure out where to start. It's not easy to summerize something which took me over 3 years to learn. I decided to explain my startegy on real market scenarios on this thread. Therefor I will give a GBP/JPY market analysis start of every session (Tokyo,London,NY). I may cut down on giving signals since I feel that most of the newbies follow the trade calls blindly and they will skip that most imporatnt learning curve of this pair. Hope everyone will enjoy this thread and learn .
Happy Trading.

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Quoting MikeW

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I also think some of the noobies should be referred to Babypips.com for their beginner lessons.





Mike

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Quoting Que

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This is also not a good example as GU does not always have a Open to Peak or Open to Low range of 120 pips minimum. So by default, many of your trades will not reach 120 pips.

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Quoting bundubill

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Auslanco nominated GBY/JPY not GU.

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Quoting auslanco

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I use
Stochastic RSI 8,3
Momentum 10 C
RSI 14
ADXR 14
Strength Indicator(very simillar to MACD) as the trend confirmation indicator.

If daily 4hr and 1hr all lined up together I go for a 500 pip profit target.
If only 4hr and 1hr lined up together I go for a 200-300 pip target.

If you want more detailed information I would suggest you to have a look @ other GBP/JPY analysis thread, where i have explained about the indicators on number of posts. Thanks for joining this thread& hope you will enjoy

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Quoting bundubill

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I think the thing that most puzzled newbies (I am one of them) the other day was the direction of the trend. There is another thread on this forum run by a highly esteemed trader who says that to determine which way the trend is, simply display your chart and if the price slopes up from left to right you are an uptrend and vive versa. He even suggests that if this puzzles you show it to your six year old daughter and she will point it out to you. What Auslanco did was demonstrate that there are trends within trends and he did it with pinpoint accuracy. Some of you with more experience may understand how he did this - I don't - and if he can show me how to do this I will be everlastingly grateful

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Quoting fourxtrader

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Looks good anyway you calculate it!

7 losses at 40 pips = -280

3 wins at 120 pips = +360
_____________________________
average net gain per trade = +80

21.25 trading sessions per month
21.25 X +80 = +1700 pips per month per mini lot traded

Dr. D.

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Quoting MikeW

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Hi Bundubill,

A trend within a trend is simply a trending movement that is contrary to, but still lies within the larger trend ie. hasn't broken the larger trends' trendline. The first chart shows a downtrend on a 4H chart, but if you pull back or go to a larger timeframe (second chart) you can see that it is contained within a larger uptrend. If your question was how to draw a trendline or when is the
trend deemed to have changed, ask again and if Auslanco doesn't mind then I can explain that.

regards

Mike

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Quoting MikeW

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Geez -I'm better off just tossing a coin!

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Quoting maestr2

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great idea to have your own thread. will be avid learner. also, did you get a chance to look at website link i sent you for site i built for you to put your trading instructions, etc on

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Quoting MikeW

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Good move on having your own thread Auslanco. I think things were starting to get a bit heated over on the other one with the non GJ calls. I don't know how you were managing to call the trades as well as keep an eye on them and answer peoples questions. I also think some of the noobies should be referred to Babypips.com for their beginner lessons.

Your calls have been wonderful and everyone appreciates them but you seemed to become too involved in making it a success for everyone (which shows what a caring person you are). I don't think that anyone would mind if you just made your calls for yourself and we just followed them and learned from them. (and it would make life a lot more pleasant for you).

For most of us the true value is in watching how a successful trader trades (as the trade unfolds) and understanding the thought process that goes behind the decision making.

This last week I have learnt so much from you and I will be following your trades as often as I can, but I won't be acting on your signals as I feel that I'll become too reliant on them and it would impede my learning process. (If my signals come up half as good as yours I'll be happy ).

Thanks again for coming to this forum and I look forward to learnig heaps more this week.

All the best

Mike

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