Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Bank of Japan Raises Rates, Yen Strengthens


The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised short-term interest rates to 0.5%, the highest level in 17 years. While this move was anticipated, the currency market responded with a significant strengthening of the yen, with USD/JPY falling by approximately 0.6%.
At a press conference, BOJ Governor Ueda stated that there is no predetermined course for future rate adjustments. Meanwhile, media reports cite analysts’ opinions suggesting that the rate could be raised again before the end of 2025.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

S&P 500 Index Sets Record High


As shown by the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the stock index:
→ has increased by approximately 3.5% since the start of the year;
→ surpassed its previous all-time highs set in December.
Market participants’ optimism was driven by:
→ a strong start to earnings season and expectations of robust reports from major tech companies;
→ statements made by Donald Trump at the Davos forum, where the US president urged Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices and expressed the view that interest rates should be reduced. Overall, such measures are expected to foster economic growth.
Reuters quoted Lindsay Bell, Chief Strategist at 248 Ventures: buyers "like the idea of interest rates coming down, of oil prices coming down. All in all, the market is optimistic the more they hear about Trump policies. We're just seeing a reflection of that optimism."



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Are Financial Derivatives and How to Trade Them?



Financial derivatives are powerful instruments used by traders to speculate on market movements or manage risk. From futures to CFDs, derivatives offer potential opportunities across global markets. This article examines “What is a derivative in finance?”, delving into the main types of derivatives, how they function, and key considerations for traders.

What Are Derivatives?
A financial derivative is a contract with its value tied to the performance of an underlying asset. These assets can include stocks, commodities, currencies, ETFs, or market indices. Instead of buying the asset itself, traders and investors use derivatives to speculate on price movements or manage financial risk.
Fundamentally, derivatives are contracts made between two parties. They allow one side to take advantage of changes in the asset's price, whether it rises or falls. For example, a futures contract locks in a price for buying or selling an asset on a specific date, while a contract for difference (CFD) helps traders speculate on the price of an asset without owning it.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Bounce Back: Are Further Gains Ahead?



AUD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6200 and 0.6250 levels. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.5685.
Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today
· The Aussie Dollar rallied after forming a base above the 0.6165 level against the US Dollar.
· There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6290 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
· NZD/USD is consolidating gains from the 0.5650 zone.
· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5685 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6165 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6200 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.
There was a close above the 0.6250 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6330 zone. A high was formed near 0.6330 and the pair recently saw a minor pullback.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

XNG/USD Analysis: Bears Pressure Key Support



On 5 December, while analysing the natural gas chart, we noted that price movements:
→ were forming an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ support from the lower boundary of the channel (reinforced by the psychological level of 3.000) was already evident in a nascent price reversal (indicated by an arrow).
As the XNG/USD chart illustrates, since that time (marked by a blue arrow), the price indeed rose, using the support from the lower boundary of the channel to reach its upper boundary on 30 December.
However, we now see supply forces displaying aggression – whenever the natural gas price climbs above 3.700, bears quickly intervene (marked by red arrows), pushing the price back down.
What could happen next?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Apple (AAPL) Stock Price Analysis: Worst Start to the Year Since 2008



On 27 December, while analysing Apple (AAPL) stock, we noted: "Traders should consider the possibility of a pullback below the key psychological level of $250, with the price potentially retreating to the lower purple boundary."
A month later, Bloomberg reports:
→ By the close of trading on Friday, 24 January, the company's shares had fallen 11% since the start of 2025, marking the worst performance among the "Big Seven" companies.
→ This represents the worst start for AAPL shares since 2008, when the global financial crisis was in full swing.
→ Apple has also significantly underperformed the S&P 500, which has risen approximately 3.7% this year and hit a new record high earlier this week.
Can the bulls reverse this disappointing trend?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Insights with Gary Thomson: BoC, Fed & ECB Interest Rates, PCE Price Index, Earnings Reports


In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode:
- BoC Interest Rate Decision
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
- ECB Interest Rate Decision
- US PCE Price Index
- Corporate Earnings Statements

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.
Watch YOUTUBE VIDEO

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.
Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Index Investing: A Practical Approach to Market Participation


Index investing has become a popular way for traders and investors to access the broader market. By tracking the performance of financial indices like the S&P 500 or FTSE 100, index investing offers diversification, lower costs, and steady exposure to market trends. This article explores how index investing works, its advantages, potential risks, and strategies to suit different goals.

Index Investing Definition
Index investing is a strategy where traders and investors focus on tracking the performance of a specific financial market index, such as the FTSE 100 or S&P 500. These indices represent a collection of stocks or other assets, grouped to reflect a segment of the market. Instead of picking individual assets, index investors aim to match the returns of the entire index by investing in a fund that mirrors its composition.
For example, if an investor puts money in a fund tracking the Nasdaq-100, it’s effectively spread across all companies in that index, including tech giants like Apple or Microsoft. This approach provides instant diversification, as the investor is not reliant on the performance of a single stock.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Drops by Approximately 17%



The start of 2025 appeared favourable for Nvidia (NVDA) shares from a fundamental perspective:
→ On 6 January, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivered a keynote at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES).
→ On 22 January, the company's stock prices rose following President Trump's Stargate project announcement.
However, news from China triggered a sharp decline, with Nvidia's stock price plunging approximately 17% yesterday, as shown on the Nvidia (NVDA) chart.
According to Reuters, last week the Chinese startup DeepSeek launched a free AI assistant requiring minimal resources. By Monday, the assistant had surpassed its American rival, ChatGPT, in downloads from Apple’s App Store.

CNN reports that the R1 model is both powerful and significantly cheaper than AI technologies from OpenAI, Google, or Meta. DeepSeek claimed to have spent just $5.6 million on its base model, compared to the hundreds of millions or billions invested by American companies in their AI technologies.
This may have led market participants to conclude that the AI industry requires fewer Nvidia chips than previously thought, prompting a sell-off of Nvidia shares. This decline also impacted other companies in the sector, with sharp drops in Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), and others.
As a result, Nvidia lost its title as "the world's most valuable company" to Apple, and its CEO saw his fortune decrease by 20%.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is a Spot Rate and How It Is Used in Trading?



Spot rates are a cornerstone of trading, reflecting the real-time price for immediate settlement of assets like currencies and commodities. They provide traders with crucial insights into market conditions and influence strategies across various domains. This article explores what spot rates are, how they work, and their role in trading.

Spot Rate Definition
The spot rate is the current price at which an asset, such as a currency, commodity, or security, can be bought or sold for immediate delivery. In essence, it’s what the market says something is worth right now, reflecting real-time supply and demand. Unlike future prices, which are influenced by expectations and contracts for later delivery, this type of pricing is all about the present.

Spot rates are especially crucial in highly liquid assets like forex and commodities, where prices can change rapidly based on global events. To use an example, if the rate for the euro against the dollar is 1.1050, that’s the price at which traders can exchange euros for dollars at that moment. It’s dynamic, adjusting instantly to factors like economic news, interest rate changes, and geopolitical developments.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

S&P 500 Rebounds After Monday’s Drop



The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) has recovered following Monday’s sharp decline, which was triggered by the success of Chinese startup DeepSeek and its AI model. As of this morning, the index is trading above the week’s early high.
This resilience suggests that the stock market has stabilised ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, scheduled for today at 22:00 GMT+3. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but the key question is what stance Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take now that Donald Trump has officially assumed the U.S. presidency. Trump has already stated at the Davos forum that interest rates should be lowered. Powell’s press conference is set for 22:30 GMT+3.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Alibaba (BABA) Shares Surge Following AI Model Launch



Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba has unveiled an upgraded version of its artificial intelligence model, Qwen2.5 Max. According to the company, the model:
→ Outperforms DeepSeek, the AI model that made headlines this week, in several key areas.
→ Achieves "competitive performance compared to top-tier models," referencing OpenAI and Meta, based on benchmark tests.
The news was met with enthusiasm, driving Alibaba's (BABA) stock price up by more than 6% in a single day, pushing BABA shares to their highest level of the year.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: Gold Prices Climb as Oil Takes a Hit



Gold price rallied further and traded above the $2,750 resistance. Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $72.20.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today
· Gold price started a steady increase from the $2,715 zone against the US Dollar.
· It cleared a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $2,750 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
· Crude oil prices failed to clear the $80.00 region and started a fresh decline.
· There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $73.85 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $2,715 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $2,730.
There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $2,750. The bulls pushed the price above the $2,765 and $2,770 resistance levels. Finally, the price climbed as high as $2,785 before there was a pullback.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice. c

Using Interest Rate Parity to Trade Forex



Interest rate parity stands as a cornerstone concept in forex trading, offering a lens to assess currency value shifts based on interest differentials. This article explains how traders can leverage this principle to make strategic decisions, delving into its mechanics, implications, and practical applications in the forex market.

Understanding Interest Rate Parity
Interest rate parity (IRP) is a foundational theory in foreign exchange markets that provides a link between exchange rate parity and the cost of borrowing. At its core, IRP posits that the difference in interest rates between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward and spot exchange rates when adjusted across compounding periods.

To understand IRP, one must first grasp the concepts of spot and forward rates. The spot rate is the current price at which one currency can be exchanged for another. For instance, if the EUR/USD spot price is 1.10, one euro can buy 1.10 US dollars today.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Dollar Slightly Strengthened after the Fed Meeting



Yesterday’s Fed meeting proceeded in line with expert forecasts. The base interest rate remained at 4.50%. Jerome Powell, who spoke after the Fed’s decision was announced, did not clarify the future direction of monetary policy. The head of the US regulator, in particular, noted that the Fed would not rush to cut rates and that, in order to change the course of monetary policy, real progress in reducing inflation needed to be seen.

GBP/USD
The GBP/USD currency pair tested key support at 1.2400 yesterday. At the moment, the price is holding above this level, and if positive news for the pound emerges, the pair could rise towards recent highs at 1.2530–1.2500.

If GBP/USD buyers manage to consolidate the price above 1.2570 in the coming trading sessions, the pair may continue to rise towards 1.2660–1.2610. A break below the 1.2400 support level could trigger a renewed decline towards 1.2320–1.2260.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nasdaq 100 Hovering Near Weekly Highs in a Volatile Week



As shown on the 4-hour chart of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), the index stood around the 21,600 level this morning, near the weekly high that formed at Monday’s open.
This suggests that the tech-stock index has almost fully recovered from the decline triggered by the launch of AI from the Chinese startup DeepSeek. According to media reports:
→ Experts have pointed to signs that the Chinese startup used a technique known as “distillation” – in simple terms, this means that DeepSeek’s model extracted knowledge from more advanced models such as ChatGPT. In other words, this is not about innovation but rather an unfair practice.
→ Nassim Taleb believes that the sharp drop in NVDA shares is only the beginning of a potential market downturn inflated by AI-driven expectations. Further declines could be more significant than what we witnessed on Monday.Apart from news surrounding DeepSeek, traders were also focused on earnings reports from major corporations (which we will cover in detail in separate articles):
→ Tesla (TSLA) is holding above $400 in pre-market trading today, despite earnings per share falling short of expectations. Meanwhile, company executives believe that Trump’s policies could negatively impact Tesla’s operations.
→ Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell by more than 4%, Meta Platforms (META) surpassed $700 per share in post-market trading for the first time, and IBM surged by approximately 9%.
Additionally, the fundamental backdrop became even more eventful following yesterday’s Fed updates, which, however, contained no surprises:
→ As expected, interest rates remained unchanged.
→ According to The Wall Street Journal, the Fed has entered a “Wait-and-See” phase, showing less confidence that inflation will continue to decline.[img][/img]


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/CAD Chart Analysis Following Bank of Canada’s Rate Cut



Unlike the Federal Reserve, which opted to leave its monetary policy unchanged, the Bank of Canada cut its interest rate yesterday. According to Forex Factory, as expected by analysts, the Overnight Rate was lowered by 25 basis points from 3.25% to 3.00%.
According to Reuters:
→ The Bank of Canada reduced interest rates to support the economy ahead of anticipated US trade tariffs.
→ This weakened the Canadian dollar, as the gap between Canadian and US bond yields widened.
→ Market participants estimate a 41% probability that the Bank of Canada will cut rates again in March.
→ The depreciation of the Canadian dollar is also influenced by oil prices (one of Canada’s key export commodities), which have fallen by over 8% since their mid-January peak.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

High-Impact News Trading Strategies



Trading in the dynamic world of foreign exchange demands a constant adaptation to the ever-evolving factors influencing currency markets. Among these factors, high-impact forex news stands out as a catalyst capable of reshaping market action. In this article, we explore some of the nuances of high-impact news trading, aiming to offer insights that may help manage high volatility and harness its power.

Trading High-Impact News
Understanding which news releases wield significant influence over the forex market and what market reaction can be expected is paramount for any trader.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Microsoft (MSFT) Shares Drop Over 6% After Earnings Report



According to the Microsoft (MSFT) stock chart:
→ The candle on 29 January closed around $441 before the company released its Q4 2024 earnings report.
→ As a result, the 30 January session opened with a significant bearish gap and closed lower at around $415, marking a total decline of over 6%, despite the company exceeding analysts' expectations.
Media reports indicate:
→ Earnings per share (EPS) stood at $3.23, surpassing the forecast of $3.11.
→ Total revenue reached $69.63 billion, beating the projected $68.78 billion.
However, investor concerns arose due to slowing growth in Microsoft's Azure cloud segment and rising AI development costs. Business Insider reports that Microsoft plans to spend $80 billion on AI infrastructure this financial year. While this substantial investment aims to strengthen its AI position, doubts remain about its long-term profitability.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Rises Despite Disappointing Earnings Report



Following the close of the main trading session on 29 January, Tesla (TSLA) released an earnings report that fell short of analysts' expectations. The company reported:
→ Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66, below the expected $0.74.
→ Revenue of $25.7 billion, missing the forecasted $27.3 billion.
Despite this, Tesla’s stock chart shows that the candle on 30 January closed around the key psychological level of $400, approximately 2% higher than the previous day’s close.
Investor concerns over weak quarterly results may have been offset by Elon Musk’s optimistic outlook, as he suggested Tesla’s business would return to growth in 2025, driven by:
→ New, more affordable electric vehicle models.
→ Progress in autonomous driving technology.
According to Business Insider, Musk stated that:
→ Tesla will begin testing a paid autonomous vehicle service in Austin, Texas, by June 2025.
→ The Full Self-Driving (FSD) software will undergo human-free testing in multiple states, including California, within a year.
→ Tesla is on track to become “the most valuable company” in the world, with strengthened production lines making 2026 an “epic” year.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.