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Let's Trade Options

  • #19,901
  • Jan 2, 2025 3:09am Jan 2, 2025 3:09am
last trade of the year, entered Monday, looking for a bit of a bounce after fizzling Santa rally. Much of selling seen over last week was year-end profit booking, we'll see if there's a btfd appetite. If we rally well above 6000 I will start to tp on this by Friday, will hold some also...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,902
  • Jan 8, 2025 4:33pm Jan 8, 2025 4:33pm
Trades set up for post-inauguration....heavy on the put side but I have cheap long SPX diagonal calls to catch a bounce, 1-2 weeks out.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,903
  • Jan 8, 2025 4:36pm Jan 8, 2025 4:36pm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,904
  • Jan 8, 2025 4:46pm Jan 8, 2025 4:46pm
Quoting The Fool
last trade of the year, entered Monday, looking for a bit of a bounce after fizzling Santa rally. Much of selling seen over last week was year-end profit booking, we'll see if there's a btfd appetite. If we rally well above 6000 I will start to tp on this by Friday, will hold some also...
...came off for 45c profit, diags benefit from increased vol and might make decent money even if they're set up in the wrong direction...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,905
  • Jan 8, 2025 8:00pm Jan 8, 2025 8:00pm
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2025
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,906
  • Jan 8, 2025 10:19pm Jan 8, 2025 10:19pm
Could we get a VIX spike in the week or so after the inauguration?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,907
  • Jan 12, 2025 12:05am Jan 12, 2025 12:05am
Still looking for a post-inauguration slide, PPI/CPI/retail sales data will set up a deeper slide, or not...I'm only shooting long deltas with cheap diagonals. Adding to put side a bit, though. Idk, maybe inauguration angst already baked in, but I don't think so. I think we could slide 10% into Feb, or more.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,908
  • Jan 12, 2025 11:54pm Jan 12, 2025 11:54pm
Looking for a low of <5,000 in 2025, but there will need to be some catalyst(s). Namely, the threat of Systemic Risk. Remember that old booger? Look for it yes once again the regional banks, but also in the insurance/reinsurance market. No amount of RTO will save the commercial property bag holders if their loans come due while the rates are pushing 5%. And the insurers can not survive too many more $50 billion fires or $100 billion hurricanes.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,909
  • Jan 15, 2025 11:22pm Jan 15, 2025 11:22pm
Quoting The Fool
Still looking for a post-inauguration slide, PPI/CPI/retail sales data will set up a deeper slide, or not...I'm only shooting long deltas with cheap diagonals. Adding to put side a bit, though. Idk, maybe inauguration angst already baked in, but I don't think so. I think we could slide 10% into Feb, or more.
Once again my tender hopes trampled by the bulls. For consolation I have the call diagonals shown....if we could get a push to opex pin 6,000 that'd be ideal. Most will come off at tomorrow's close most likely, but I might take a chance on letting the AM run....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,910
  • Jan 16, 2025 6:30pm Jan 16, 2025 6:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}For consolation I have the call diagonals shown....if we could get a push to opex pin 6,000 that'd be ideal. Most will come off at tomorrow's close most likely, but I might take a chance on letting the AM run....
no luck, out at $1, flat for long deltas, hanging in for the freak show next week, probably will be disappointed
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,911
  • Jan 17, 2025 7:42pm Jan 17, 2025 7:42pm
Quoting The Fool
Trades set up for post-inauguration....heavy on the put side but I have cheap long SPX diagonal calls to catch a bounce, 1-2 weeks out.
bot back $560 short puts for 12c, now just sitting on Jan31 $575 long puts. We'll see if the Trump EOs shake things up, but more likely just the usual V-bottom play
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,912
  • Jan 19, 2025 5:48pm Jan 19, 2025 5:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}bot back $560 short puts for 12c, now just sitting on Jan31 $575 long puts. We'll see if the Trump EOs shake things up, but more likely just the usual V-bottom play
The SPX set looking grim, the big PPI/CPI bounce screwed me. I will need a drop below 5825 by Thurs/Fri just to break even (or a rise to 6050 and a perfect finish on the no-cost BWB.) I had such high hopes for a 1st Trump week meltdown,....silly me. Don't fight the Fed maybe now don't fight the Trump.....?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,913
  • Jan 21, 2025 2:43pm Jan 21, 2025 2:43pm
rolled in the 6120 to 6110 to mend the broken wing, for $1.50, will sleep better in the continuing meltup
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,914
  • Jan 22, 2025 7:14am Jan 22, 2025 7:14am
looking for US market euphoria to continue through the meat of earnings season next week. Could be the Fed casts a shadow, we'll see. Trump's promised announcements about tariffs in early Feb could be first real chance for a pullback....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,915
  • Jan 22, 2025 8:36pm Jan 22, 2025 8:36pm
Looking for a slow Thurs-Fri and SPX to diddle around 6100. I will look to hold into Fri close and a perfect finish if it'll do that...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,916
  • Jan 22, 2025 9:47pm Jan 22, 2025 9:47pm
following are ideas for a post FOMC pullback....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,917
  • Jan 23, 2025 2:23am Jan 23, 2025 2:23am
get ready for fomo orgy next week with bigcap tech stocks er's...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,918
  • Jan 23, 2025 2:44am Jan 23, 2025 2:44am
big boy

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,919
  • Jan 23, 2025 3:04am Jan 23, 2025 3:04am
blowing big wads of cash shorting SPX in a bull mkt, not good....until it works....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,920
  • Jan 23, 2025 10:11am Jan 23, 2025 10:11am
Quoting The Fool
Looking for a slow Thurs-Fri and SPX to diddle around 6100. I will look to hold into Fri close and a perfect finish if it'll do that... {image}
Took off around 1/2 of the SPX call fly just before Trump began to address Davos. In for $1.50 out for $4.30....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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