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Call me Vidvad - I day trade futures

  • #601
  • Jan 23, 2025 1:51am Jan 23, 2025 1:51am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Driven The funny thing is MNQ is the fairest Future trading market and YM (DOW) is the most manipulated Futures market you can trade, here is why. If you follow Delta for directional trading bias like me, you will see that Buyers push up price around 98% of occasions on MNQ meaning there is little absorption occurring to this market by big players. Put another way, buyers push price up as they should. When you look at YM, probably 30% of candles are manipulated by big players. Meaning 30% of candles on YM have more buyers than sellers...
I think if you look at micro YM, youll find it makes more sense, esp. on delta's. So my guess micro has more retail traps that are visable to vol trader.
  • #602
  • Jan 23, 2025 9:15am Jan 23, 2025 9:15am
One key element of the roulette epiphany for me is that this message from TRO finally made sense. I thought I understood it before, but like so many things in trading, I was fooling myself.

Are you looking for your next trade or waiting for your next trade? There is a huge difference between the two.

Inserted Video


NQ hourly chart with a turnip Zeppelin and 8 consecutive bars of overlapping price action.
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #603
  • Jan 23, 2025 10:17am Jan 23, 2025 10:17am
Quoting vidvad
One key element of the roulette epiphany for me is that this message from TRO finally made sense. I thought I understood it before, but like so many things in trading, I was fooling myself. Are you looking for your next trade or waiting for your next trade? There is a huge difference between the two. https://youtu.be/Oqb51OQDB8Q?si=v1eTfuiBeF92p5EE NQ hourly chart with a turnip Zeppelin and 8 consecutive bars of overlapping price action. {image}
I'll never live this down
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #604
  • Jan 24, 2025 7:41am Jan 24, 2025 7:41am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} I'll never live this down
Nothing to live down, my friend.

The Zeppelin break was a profitable opportunity. Today it was a Zepplin Reversal. Sometimes they are Zeppelin Continuations. Either way, this is a very fitting pattern to use to show the difference between "looking for a trade" (the wrong way to trade) and waiting for a trade (the right way to trade).

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #605
  • Jan 24, 2025 12:18pm Jan 24, 2025 12:18pm
Quoting vidvad
One key element of the roulette epiphany for me is that this message from TRO finally made sense. I thought I understood it before, but like so many things in trading, I was fooling myself. Are you looking for your next trade or waiting for your next trade? There is a huge difference between the two. https://youtu.be/Oqb51OQDB8Q?si=v1eTfuiBeF92p5EE NQ hourly chart with a turnip Zeppelin and 8 consecutive bars of overlapping price action. {image}
Had a conversation last week with a young novice trader I met whilst on vacation OS. He had blown his account and was building a bankroll to play again. He explained to me he wanted to do the digital nomad thing and trade 1 hour a day blah blah you know the story. I said to him,” how do you know your setup will present in that hour? Trading is a game of patience amongst other things. Better to sit and wait for a whole day/ week etc for your setup, trade size ( prepare for any eventuality) and then take a break away from the table if that’s how you want to play.” I’ve been there myself. Funny how youth has the time but not the patience. Older I get, the more patience I have
  • #606
  • Edited 12:51pm Jan 24, 2025 12:38pm | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting DwnUndrTrdr
{quote}... He explained to me he wanted to do the digital nomad thing and trade 1 hour a day blah blah you know the story. I said to him,” how do you know your setup will present in that hour? Trading is a game of patience amongst other things...
Excellent post, DwnUndr, thank you for sharing.

Trading for 1 hour a day only works under two situations:

1) if you have a specific set up that either does or does not appear at a certain time of day. For example, there are traders who trade an opening range breakout strategy, whereby they define the opening range by some bar duration, e.g. M5 OR, M30 OR, M60, OR, and then they can place their trade, buy stop above the opening range, sell stop below. If filled, the platform automatically will place a stop loss and take profit, and then the trader can leave for the day, letting each trade be resolved by the market itself; or

2) You have the discipline to sit there for your pre-defined 60 minute trading window, and you are disciplined enough to WAIT for your trades, and then take them, IF they appear. If no set ups occur, you have to be willing to shut it down for the day with nothing and come back the next day. Also, this means you will have days that simply will end with a loss for the day. The patience and self-discipline required by your young friend will be immense, and to the point you made, he will likely lack the patience (which I imagine is a by-product of discipline) to sit there for an hour and NOT trade is his set up doesn't manifest.

I have what I call a trading window, typically a few hours between 8 AM US Eastern and 12 noon US Eastern, and almost never do I commit to the whole four hours. This where waiting for your trade rather than looking for a(ny) trade makes all the difference. I myself have come to prefer trading plans that are defined by a mechanical entry per the clock rather than waiting for indicator based set ups to appear. It is precisely those sort of set ups that gave me such initial success following the roulette epiphany. I let the volatility in the NQ during the five or six weeks starting around mid-December through last week to shake my new found discipline somewhat. I SIM traded only this week, and will do so again for one more week before allowing myself to again trade for money. This is in and of itself an form of discipline and patience which I'd not have easily mustered in the past.

"Trading is a game of patience amongst other things." - DwnUndrTrdr That is an important quotable quote, imo.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #608
  • Edited 1:43pm Jan 24, 2025 1:20pm | Edited 1:43pm
I finished trading for the month, +15%.

I have to tell you, vidvad, you are fooling yourself, if you do not take 50 trades challenge. The longer you wait, the longer your non performance curve will be.

Sim/Live/Sim/Live, that is what is going to be happening month after month, just like any other trader. I know, a bit brutal, but there is no other way to say it.

I am moving to 1 Hour charts, it is even more peaceful and the new goal for profit will be increased from 10-12% to 15% a month.

I started with 50 trades challenge 4 years ago and 3 years as trading live with the same edge.
  • #610
  • Jan 25, 2025 9:20pm Jan 25, 2025 9:20pm
Just a reminder that this is a journal and not a systems thread nor a trading discussion thread.

If I dislike a post, please note it is the post to which I am objecting and not the aurthor of that post.

I welcome and I have benefitd from the sharing that others have and I hope will continue to provide here. But the discussion has gone too far afield and it needs to recenter itself on what really matters to this journal: The increased ability to refrain from common trading errors as a result of the insights of the roulette epiphany.

Toward that end, i.e. regaining the proper intended focus, I will repost the link to the roulette videos that provided the insight that has been so helpful to me.

This was the first video I watched about Gonzalo that really opened my eyes:

Inserted Video


This is a more complete documentary. It is probably the original source used by the creator of the above posted video:

Inserted Video


Again, if you see that I disliked a post it is not because I dislike you. It is because I feel that that particular post is a distraction from what is the real purpose of this journal and by "disliking" a post, this will hide that post from my view as I review my journal. Again, I welcome everyone and anyone to participate. I harbor no ill will toward any of you and I appreciate you all. If you see I disliked your post, it is only to keep my own mind focused on the task I have set for myself.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #611
  • Jan 25, 2025 9:23pm Jan 25, 2025 9:23pm
Quoting medici
{quote} But this is vidvad's personal journal, and any discussion is in support of his trading journey, which he so admirably shares here. Could you perhaps ask your question in another forum, while we let vidvad get back on his feet after his recent unpleasant experience? Then we'll see where he wants to take things.
Yes, this exactly, and thank you medici. I appreciate you, your participation here in my journal, and all you have done for the FF community.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #612
  • Jan 25, 2025 9:42pm Jan 25, 2025 9:42pm
The increase in volatility that we saw in the NQ starting around the middle of December led me to revert in some ways. I started to doubt my method and also myself. I gave in to the temptation to strategy jump, instrument jump, time frame jump. All very disappointing.

However, unlike in the past, I did (finally) become mindful that I had deviated in an adversely from the Way of the Roulette Epiphany. This self-awareness is itself a win for me. Of course, I'd rather have had the realization immediately instead of almost two weeks into wandering in the desert once more, but all wins are wins, right?

Rather than compound past errors with present relapses, I will be returning to the NQ M15 method that brought me so much success in November and December.

I have made a study of the MNQ relative to the NQ, and I will use the MNQ as necessary to stay within my risk parameters, and I will also add some additional buffers to minimize the degree to which periodic discrepancies between the NQ and the MNQ can effect my risk on those trades where I Must trade MNQ's instead of the full size mini.

What this means is this: Let's suppose my money management is to limit risk to $250/trade. If the stop loss required to initiate the trade is larger than 12.50 NQ points, then I will "size down" using MNQ's to keep the risk in line with the trading plan, and I will allow up to a 10% margin of error in cases where mantaining strict risk would require a partial MNQ, which, of course, does not exist as a futures contract. In the days and weeks following the roulette epiphany, the NQ was such that based on my set ups, 12.50 points was sufficient, and I was taking profit at 25 points. The increase in volatility will require larger stops but also demand larger take profits to maintain a reward to risk as close to 2 to 1 (or better) as possible.

So if, as an example, a particular set up required a 33 point stop loss, I could not possibly trade 1 NQ, as the risk would be $660. In the case of such a set up, I would instead trade 4 MNQ's which would keep my risk within a 10% margin or error. 33 points * $2/point per MNQ = $66 risk per MNQ. $250/ $66 = 3.78 MNQ's. I would trade 4 MNQ's, and the risk would be $264, within the 10% margin of error.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #613
  • Jan 25, 2025 10:27pm Jan 25, 2025 10:27pm
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #614
  • Jan 30, 2025 8:55am Jan 30, 2025 8:55am
ENQH25 5 Min TF

@RickM and @Medici, I would like for you to know, that after tremendous pressure from you , I started back on trying to trade @ENQ Futures.

I come back to it every 3 months or so, this time I am doing it again with the premise that "They can and I can't?"...BE so far today.
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  • #615
  • Jan 31, 2025 4:28am Jan 31, 2025 4:28am
Quoting vidvad
I will be returning to the NQ M15 method that brought me so much success in November and December.
How's it going? I guess your M15 method is less successful now that the market isn't strongly trending like it was in November and December?
  • #616
  • Jan 31, 2025 7:13am Jan 31, 2025 7:13am
Quoting medici
{quote} How's it going? I guess your M15 method is less successful now that the market isn't strongly trending like it was in November and December?
It isn't a reversal method and not a trend method, and it is built to take a defined take profit. Some set ups occur after a pullback from a trend, so the "reversal" is a pullback reversing to again move with the trend. Those do tend to be the best signals. Monday's signal was like that. Tuesday's signal was at one of my pivots (the previous day's close, and it was a reversal from that level. Wednesday was also a reversal from a pivot, but I did not trade it because I don't trade FOMC days. More often than not those are the days I get chopped. Yesterday was a losing day. Both of the first two signals whipsawed me and after two losses I stop trading.

Profitable on the week so far, but just barely.

Hindsight being 20/20 I wish I had taken the Wednesday signal. I'd be ahead by more than +1R on the week if I had. Also, again with hindsight, the third signal yesterday would have made back all of what was lost on the first tow. But my rule is 2 consecutive losses I quit for the day. It protects me from getting tempted into revenge trading.

I feel I'm getting my mojo back. Keeping quiet here and in the discord for the time being to focus on getting back in the roulette groove.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #617
  • Jan 31, 2025 7:33am Jan 31, 2025 7:33am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} It isn't a reversal method and not a trend method, and it is built to take a defined take profit. Some set ups occur after a pullback from a trend, so the "reversal" is a pullback reversing to again move with the trend. Those do tend to be the best signals. Monday's signal was like that. Tuesday's signal was at one of my pivots (the previous day's close, and it was a reversal from that level. Wednesday was also a reversal from a pivot, but I did not trade it because I don't trade FOMC days. More often than not those are the days I get chopped....
Come on vidvad, get your mojo back!
  • #618
  • Jan 31, 2025 7:43am Jan 31, 2025 7:43am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} I feel I'm getting my mojo back. Keeping quiet here and in the discord for the time being to focus on getting back in the roulette groove.
Sounds good. Just remember that the roulette groove is a losing one unless you have an edge.
  • #619
  • Edited 9:21am Jan 31, 2025 8:01am | Edited 9:21am
If you have an edge in roulette, every once in a while you win really big, and that's what makes you have an edge.

Similarly in trading, if you have an edge you should have one or two days a week, at least, when you win really big.

So that's what the trading statistics should look like - days with small wins, days with small losses, and days when you win really big. And at the end of a week there should be no question of whether you have an edge or not.
  • #620
  • Feb 1, 2025 12:51am Feb 1, 2025 12:51am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Excellent post, DwnUndr, thank you for sharing. Trading for 1 hour a day only works under two situations:……. "Trading is a game of patience amongst other things." - DwnUndrTrdr That is an important quotable quote, imo.
Happy to hear you appreciated it and it provided some input to conversation. Yes, we had a wide ranging conversation, but as I’m sure you’re aware it’s very difficult to convey one’s trading experience and thoughts to another as trading is such a unique individual experience and my way is not the only or right way.
You can, when talking to another trader evaluate relatively quickly where they are on the curve, having been there oneself. The things you know that you really don’t know. The things you’ve learned that you will have to unlearn , the psychological, and so it goes….
When you step back after one of these conversations you also can see how far that you yourself have come on that journey and gain little insights into yourself if you keep an open honest mind and heart.
I would not know how to structure the learning of another trader as trading education I feel is such an organic process. So many ifs, buts, maybes and intangibles. The nuance of confidence and humility.
I’m still currently in South East Asia and have visited many Buddhist temples and properties. Talked with monks. The zen Buddhist mindset would be the stereotypical mindset I would suggest for the game of trading. If there was such a thing as a stereotypical trader
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