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Call me Vidvad - I day trade futures

  • #581
  • Jan 20, 2025 7:34am Jan 20, 2025 7:34am
Quoting medici
{quote} This latter form of manipulation some would decry as "stop hunt" and want banned, but from the point of view of the market it's just speculators doing their job of bringing more complete price information to the market while some will have to pay for their ignorance.
Well, it is undeniable there are stop hunts, I often enter at a limit order at or just below a recent swing low or a recent M5 bar, knowing there are stops there and knowing that institutions will push the market there to grab them.

But when a derivative market spikes through 6 whole handles while the instrument of which it is a derivative doesn't budge even a tick, then that is stop hunting on a grand scale.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #583
  • Edited 9:14am Jan 20, 2025 8:36am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Well, it is undeniable there are stop hunts, I often enter at a limit order at or just below a recent swing low or a recent M5 bar, knowing there are stops there and knowing that institutions will push the market there to grab them. But when a derivative market spikes through 6 whole handles while the instrument of which it is a derivative doesn't budge even a tick, then that is stop hunting on a grand scale.
This is not towards vidvad but towards the subject.

Anything and Everything will happen in the Market. Market is an Authority I respect.

Statistics of your trading plan not in your favor, if trading scared of any PA action. Must take a trade based on what is in the plan.

You Can Not Trade Scared! Period.
  • #584
  • Jan 20, 2025 9:34am Jan 20, 2025 9:34am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It isn't cost effective if you cannot control your losses. Losses are the only thing we can control. All I'm saying is that this product as it is currently traded is untradable for any trader who wished to control losses.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #585
  • Jan 20, 2025 10:02am Jan 20, 2025 10:02am
Quoting vidvad
{image} It isn't cost effective if you cannot control your losses. Losses are the only thing we can control. All I'm saying is that this product as it is currently traded is untradable for any trader who wished to control losses.
Then it is simple, your plan no longer includes trading Micro contracts in ES and ENQ. Moving on.
  • #586
  • Jan 20, 2025 10:40am Jan 20, 2025 10:40am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Then it is simple, your plan no longer includes trading Micro contracts in ES and ENQ. Moving on.
That's all I've been saying lol.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #588
  • Edited 2:05am Jan 21, 2025 12:56am | Edited 2:05am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Driven The funny thing is MNQ is the fairest Future trading market and YM (DOW) is the most manipulated Futures market you can trade, here is why. If you follow Delta for directional trading bias like me, you will see that Buyers push up price around 98% of occasions on MNQ meaning there is little absorption occurring to this market by big players. Put another way, buyers push price up as they should. When you look at YM, probably 30% of candles are manipulated by big players. Meaning 30% of candles on YM have more buyers than sellers...
Thanks Rick, almost verbatim my experience and point of view.

And your final sentence - "Neither one of us is wrong, we just see different things." - makes an essential point. How one sees the market is not 'the truth' but comes with certain presuppositions, or modelling assumptions, which one needs to be aware of. Other market participants may act under different assumptions, and if they have deeper pockets than you there is no point in arguing.
  • #589
  • Jan 21, 2025 1:41am Jan 21, 2025 1:41am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Driven The funny thing is MNQ is the fairest Future trading market and YM (DOW) is the most manipulated Futures market you can trade, here is why. If you follow Delta for directional trading bias like me, you will see that Buyers push up price around 98% of occasions on MNQ meaning there is little absorption occurring to this market by big players. Put another way, buyers push price up as they should. When you look at YM, probably 30% of candles are manipulated by big players. Meaning 30% of candles on YM have more buyers than sellers...
Or all of these 3 are totally different products ?

YM - 30 stocks
NQ - 100 stocks
ES - 500 stocks

I read it some where is 85% of stock move up then index is moving up. How easy it is move 25, 85, 425 stock in same direction ? Is ES fairest to it trade or it takes too much money for manipulator to push to in a favorable direction.

For me YM is like EMA(30), NQ like EMA(100) and ES is like EMA(200) and it actually ( almost ) is average move of X stocks.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #590
  • Jan 21, 2025 4:36am Jan 21, 2025 4:36am
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} Or all of these 3 are totally different products ? YM - 30 stocks NQ - 100 stocks ES - 500 stocks I read it some where is 85% of stock move up then index is moving up. How easy it is move 25, 85, 425 stock in same direction ? Is ES fairest to it trade or it takes too much money for manipulator to push to in a favorable direction. For me YM is like EMA(30), NQ like EMA(100) and ES is like EMA(200) and it actually ( almost ) is average move of X stocks.
Hi Mndariin,

You ask some "big" questions which require a lot of detail to answer properly, which is alright. But this is vidvad's personal journal, and any discussion is in support of his trading journey, which he so admirably shares here.

Could you perhaps ask your question in another forum, while we let vidvad get back on his feet after his recent unpleasant experience? Then we'll see where he wants to take things.
  • #591
  • Edited 6:44am Jan 21, 2025 6:17am | Edited 6:44am
Let me repeat my point from above but a bit more stronger.

Anything and Everything will happen in the Market. Market is an Authority.

Who cares What, Who and Why manipulate markets? Nothing you or I can do about it. It just an excuse.

In my old country we have a saying "плохому танцору яйца мешают", which means "to a bad dancer's his balls always get in the way"

Trade your edge, if it is a loss after 50 trades(I went as far as 500 trades) - you have no edge. That is all it is.

vidvad for the reasons he stated does not like certain instruments. He will find the instruments he likes.

I found Dow Futures makes me 10% + a month. I am a good dancer and I like Dow Futures music.
  • #592
  • Jan 21, 2025 7:33am Jan 21, 2025 7:33am
Quoting RickM
{quote} That is why NO true DOM traders will ever trade the DOW Futures market using YM. No one.
I'm not a DOM trader. I'm a chart trader whose primary edge is trading level to level.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #593
  • Jan 21, 2025 7:50am Jan 21, 2025 7:50am
DOM trading, if I'm not mistaken, is primarily undertaken to capitalize on short term imbalances in the order book, with most DOM traders scalping for a tick or two, maybe a handful at times.

Driven is looking for swings that yield 150 tick profit targets. The DOM is, I would think, irrelevant to intraday swing traders.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #594
  • Jan 21, 2025 2:51pm Jan 21, 2025 2:51pm
Quoting vidvad
DOM trading, if I'm not mistaken, is primarily undertaken to capitalize on short term imbalances in the order book, with most DOM traders scalping for a tick or two, maybe a handful at times. Driven is looking for swings that yield 150 tick profit targets. The DOM is, I would think, irrelevant to intraday swing traders.
Just to say, I'm a chart trader too, going for 200-400 tick swings in NQ/MNQ, and I agree with Rick's assessment of MNQ being the fairest CME index futures contract with cleaner signals than NQ, and I'm saying that based on years of experience. If someone can make things work with YM that's good, but it's not my cup of tea.
  • #595
  • Edited 4:20pm Jan 21, 2025 3:07pm | Edited 4:20pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Just to say, I'm a chart trader too, going for 200-400 tick swings in NQ/MNQ, and I agree with Rick's assessment of MNQ being the fairest CME index futures contract with cleaner signals than NQ, and I'm saying that based on years of experience. If someone can make things work with YM that's good, but it's not my cup of tea.
Let's not forget that this whole arc started we me noting and SHOWING on a chart an instance where the MES spi0ked 6 points away from the current market while the ES sat on a steady bid-ask spread. That's all I did. Some took issue with my correctly pointing out that such an event is possible only if the matching engine allows it to happen.

I'm not here to debate which contract someone should trade and which should be avoided. I'm just noting that for me, I will be wary of the MES going forward.

I SIM traded MYM side by side with YM today and while it was SIM I was using the same data feed I use for my live account. One day is just one day, but they tracked each other well, occasionally one or the other would pullback to a low 1 tick higher or lower than the other, but no shenanigans.

I was also watching CL/MCL and GC/MGC and while I did not watch either of those as closely as I did the YM, both also seem stable enough to be considered candidates for me.

Good on you, medici, for swinging for those 50 to 100 point swings on the MNQ!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #596
  • Jan 21, 2025 3:23pm Jan 21, 2025 3:23pm
..and now you know what RickM and Medici did not want you to know. They secretly trading Dow Futures - as when trading Dow Futures, you will never lose money.

The secret it out.

P.S do I have to? Ok, ok, I am joking or kidding or joking...or am I?
  • #597
  • Jan 22, 2025 12:34am Jan 22, 2025 12:34am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Let's not forget that this whole arc started we me noting and SHOWING on a chart an instance where the MES spi0ked 6 points away from the current market while the ES sat on a steady bid-ask spread. That's all I did. Some took issue with my correctly pointing out that such an event is possible only if the matching engine allows it to happen. I'm not here to debate which contract someone should trade and which should be avoided. I'm just noting that for me, I will be wary of the MES going forward. I SIM traded MYM side by side with YM today...
All good then, I think. I am not here to debate anything either, but to support you in getting closure after a painful experience. To that end, I don't think it's in your interest to hold on to an incorrect interpretation of the event, but I won't force the issue. If you want to pursue it further, you can contact the CME market regulation team on 312.341.7970.

But when you say that MNQ isn't cost-effective to trade as one can't control losses due to market manipulation, I must for the benefit of others point out that you are plain wrong.

Good luck with your YM endeavours, if that's where you are heading!
  • #598
  • Jan 22, 2025 1:24am Jan 22, 2025 1:24am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} ...also watching CL/MCL and GC/MGC and ...
I trade Gold only. If your choice will be between Oil or Gold, then I recommend Gold.
I use same strategy to for both but I always got burned trading Oil.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #599
  • Jan 22, 2025 5:01am Jan 22, 2025 5:01am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Driven The funny thing is MNQ is the fairest Future trading market and YM (DOW) is the most manipulated Futures market you can trade, here is why. If you follow Delta for directional trading bias like me, you will see that Buyers push up price around 98% of occasions on MNQ meaning there is little absorption occurring to this market by big players. Put another way, buyers push price up as they should. When you look at YM, probably 30% of candles are manipulated by big players. Meaning 30% of candles on YM have more buyers than sellers...
Now that vidvad's MES experience has hopefully settled, I thought I'd share my interpretation of what you are saying here.

What you describe as YM manipulation, i.e. big players selling into an uptrend on the micro scale, I take to be market makers (who have the contractual obligation to provide liquidity, i.e. in this case selling to the buyer majority) simply doing their job in a market neutral way. That is, they are giving the buyers what they want while making sure they don't lose money in the process, and they are doing so in a way that is invisible to 99% of market participants, and they don't shake anyone but DOM traders out of their positions.

When you say that in NQ you observe 98% buying in an up candle, that can only be interpreted in one way: The market makers are not market neutral; they are participating in the market! So instead of being market neutral, they are manipulating the market by speculative activity ... which is the reason for the wild swings in NQ that we love so much. Still, market manipulation it is.

Yesterday, Tue 21 Jan, is a good example. Both YM and NQ are in an uptrend, and one would be justified in expecting it to continue. In YM there are nice and simple opportunities to enter the long side and hold for the rest of the day.

Not so in NQ. Market makers push it down in fast deep swings, one after the other, and the uptrend didn't resume properly until noon ET. My trading partner calls this practice 'shaking the tree', i.e. shaking weak longs out of their positions, and shaking would be longs out of their hope for a continued uptrend ... before the prop desks at the market makers start buying. Yesterday the golden opportunity was the deep pullback just before 10.15 ET, which few would see as a long trend setup.

Retired fund manager Tony Plummer put it like this: "Financial markets function so as to bring maximal pain to the maximal number of participants." And one needs to keep in mind that those who move the markets around are not guided by values such as fairness, transparency, or charity. Quite to the contrary, they are ruthlessly predatorial, and very happy to administer painful experiences.

And then there are safe havens like YM, where the volumes are too low for anyone to bother turning it into a BDSM club.
  • #600
  • Jan 22, 2025 8:07am Jan 22, 2025 8:07am
Just a quick review of yesterdays volumes

MNQ traded 2,098,591Contracts ..... The Winner
ES traded. 1,725,952 Contracts. .... Very Nice
NQ traded 662,316 Contracts. ....... Many traders claim to trade NQ but I reckon they are riding MNQ

AND LAST

YM traded. 121,477 Contracts ........ That's 17 times less the volume KING MNQ

I don't thing too many are trading YM Futures, they are trading DOW CFD mostly which is good because it has beautiful PA.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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