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Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

  • #19,261
  • Jan 19, 2025 1:19pm Jan 19, 2025 1:19pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} DO NOT CONFUSE POSSIBILITY WITH PROBABILITY. The possibilities are price goes up or down or stays the same. There is no probability in trading. However, there are statistics. Probability deals with the future. Statistics deal with the past.
Actually probability and possibility are very similar in that probability is simply the quantification(evaluation) of possibility. And one would argue that the HOLO system rules give the trader a higher probability of a successful trade. Furthermore, probabilities are the basis of statistics which, as you pointed out, depend on past data to predict future events.
Just sayin'

Nice system by the way.
  • #19,262
  • Jan 19, 2025 2:56pm Jan 19, 2025 2:56pm
Quoting Malkolm
{quote} Duly noted, thanks Mate! Am I correct in understanding that statically, if ATR exceeds 50%, it would be appropriate to enter against the breakout?
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Does the daily range usually end at 50% of the ATR?

What do the statistics tell you?


Socratic method is named after the classical Greek philosopher Socrates. It is a form of inquiry and discussion between individuals, based on asking and answering questions to stimulate critical thinking and to illuminate ideas.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,263
  • Jan 19, 2025 3:05pm Jan 19, 2025 3:05pm
Quoting Pip_Monk
{quote} Actually probability and possibility are very similar in that probability is simply the quantification(evaluation) of possibility. And one would argue that the HOLO system rules give the trader a higher probability of a successful trade. Furthermore, probabilities are the basis of statistics which, as you pointed out, depend on past data to predict future events. Just sayin' Nice system by the way.
People see what they want to see. Reality will always be reality no matter what you think you see.

When arguing, one side chooses to point out the differences while the other side points out the similarities. No communication happens.

What do you mean by similar?

Possibility means something can happen.

Probability is the likelihood that it will happen.

It is possible it can rain today. What's the probability?

Probability versus Statistics

Probability and statistics are related areas of mathematics which concern themselves with analyzing the relative frequency of events. Still, there are fundamental differences in the way they see the world:

 

  1. Probability deals with predicting the likelihood of future events, while statistics involves the analysis of the frequency of past events.
  2. Probability is primarily a theoretical branch of mathematics, which studies the consequences of mathematical definitions. Statistics is primarily an applied branch of mathematics, which tries to make sense of observations in the real world.

https://www3.cs.stonybrook.edu/~skie...nd%20face%20up.

Socratic method is named after the classical Greek philosopher Socrates. It is a form of inquiry and discussion between individuals, based on asking and answering questions to stimulate critical thinking and to illuminate ideas.

My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,264
  • Jan 19, 2025 6:12pm Jan 19, 2025 6:12pm
"Your mistakes aren’t the best teacher—just the most expensive.
You can start at the bottom of the mountain and make every mistake from scratch on the way to the top, or you can take a sherpa with you and master the best of what other people have already figured out.
The successful learn vicariously; the foolish insist on firsthand pain."
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,265
  • Jan 19, 2025 6:15pm Jan 19, 2025 6:15pm
A lot of advantages can be gained simply by avoiding the standard paths to failure.
Inversion is not the way we are taught to think. We are taught to identify what we want and explore things that will move us closer to our objective. However, by identifying and avoiding things that will ensure we don’t get what we want, we dramatically increase our odds of success.
Often, we get so fixated on solving a problem in a particular way that we miss simpler, more elegant solutions. Inversion forces us to consider the opposite side of the equation. Instead of asking, “How do I solve this problem?” inversion asks, “What would guarantee failure?”
Instead of asking, “How can I achieve this goal?” it asks, “What is preventing me from achieving it?” By inverting the question, we can gain insights that our normal thought patterns might miss.
The next time you find yourself struggling, try inverting your thinking. Ask yourself how you could guarantee failure. The answers may surprise you and open up new avenues for possible solutions.
— Source: The Great Mental Models v1: General Thinking Tools
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,266
  • Jan 20, 2025 1:13am Jan 20, 2025 1:13am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} {image} Does the daily range usually end at 50% of the ATR? What do the statistics tell you? Socratic method is named after the classical Greek philosopher Socrates. It is a form of inquiry and discussion between individuals, based on asking and answering questions to stimulate critical thinking and to illuminate ideas.

If I am interpreting the data correctly, over the last 1000 candles (1000 days):
ATR 50 was in 87.2% of cases
ATR 100 - in 50.1% of cases
ATR 125 - in 36.8% of cases

Based on this, statistically, a daily reversal is possible at:

ATR 50 = 100-87.2%=12.8%
ATR 100 = 100-50.1%=49.9%
ATR 125 - in 100%-36.8%=63.2%

Did I understand the data correctly? Cheers!
  • #19,267
  • Jan 20, 2025 1:30am Jan 20, 2025 1:30am
Quoting Malkolm
{quote} If I am interpreting the data correctly, over the last 1000 candles (1000 days): ATR 50 was in 87.2% of cases ATR 100 - in 50.1% of cases ATR 125 - in 36.8% of cases Based on this, statistically, a daily reversal is possible at: ATR 50 = 100-87.2%=12.8% ATR 100 = 100-50.1%=49.9% ATR 125 - in 100%-36.8%=63.2% Did I understand the data correctly? Cheers!
No.

The table is high - low or range not ATR.

The % is percent of time range exceeded the level.

Range exceeded 100 pips 50.10% of the time. So a trader can expect price to make a new daily high or daily low or both about 50% of the time.

If daily range is 150 or higher then statistically there is only a 25% chance price will make a new extreme that day. So looking for reversals would be wise.

Now do you understand the reason for caution on breakouts?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,268
  • Jan 20, 2025 4:12am Jan 20, 2025 4:12am
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  • #19,269
  • Edited 5:14am Jan 20, 2025 4:19am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting Igumapips
{quote} TooSlow, This is my question. This this pattern occur always. {image}
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Hi.
Firstly your drawing is wrong.
The first RED candle closed BULLISH (UP) and the second GREEN candle appears to have also closed BULLISH (UP) because the third RED candle seems to have opened at the close of the second candle.
THEREFORE the first and second candles SHOULD have been the same color and the third BEARISH (DOWN) candle SHOULD have been a different color.
That would help a bit. In the future I suggest you use a setup from a chart to ask questions like this, please. It would help.

To your question if I understand it ......
Q...Did the first candle make a daily high ?
A...Yes
Q...Did the second candle make a NEW daily high?
A...YES
Therefore the FIRST candle is no longer valid and should be ignored.

The second candle printed the NEW daily high AND also the new Highest H1 OPEN of the day.
Therefore it has created the NEW "area of interest" between the NEW daily high.....and the NEW Highest H1 open.

So when we see the third candle open in the "area of interest" then you need to be looking at a trade entry at the Highest H1 open price which is the OPEN of the second candle.
I hope that helps. There may be a language issue as it seems these questions are basic rules of the model so I hope I haven't caused you any confusion.
In actual fact it is the ideal setup for Tooslow's other entry method (123).
Cheers and good luck. Michael
  • #19,270
  • Jan 20, 2025 5:30am Jan 20, 2025 5:30am
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  • #19,271
  • Jan 20, 2025 5:54am Jan 20, 2025 5:54am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} No. The table is high - low or range not ATR. The % is percent of time range exceeded the level. Range exceeded 100 pips 50.10% of the time. So a trader can expect price to make a new daily high or daily low or both about 50% of the time. If daily range is 150 or higher then statistically there is only a 25% chance price will make a new extreme that day. So looking for reversals would be wise. Now do you understand the reason for caution on breakouts?
Thanks for the explanation, Mate!

Yes, now it is clear that every breakout, statistically, will not reverse immediately and you have to be careful.
Maybe it's easier for me, because I reduce my stop-loss extremely fast to take +5 and exit the market

Could you please tell me where I can familiarize myself with the indicators you post?
Is it all #advancedalientrading?

Any information would help me grow multiples in my understanding of trading
  • #19,272
  • Jan 20, 2025 6:50am Jan 20, 2025 6:50am
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“Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:
1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)
2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)
They happen regardless of time frame.
They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden


Price Action #advancedalientrading

1) Price will either breakout of the high, low or both of the previous bar
2) Price will not breakout of the previous bar.
3) Price will either close above a level (line) or not.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,273
  • Jan 20, 2025 6:51am Jan 20, 2025 6:51am
Quoting Malkolm
{quote} Thanks for the explanation, Mate! Yes, now it is clear that every breakout, statistically, will not reverse immediately and you have to be careful. Maybe it's easier for me, because I reduce my stop-loss extremely fast to take +5 and exit the market Could you please tell me where I can familiarize myself with the indicators you post? Is it all #advancedalientrading? Any information would help me grow multiples in my understanding of trading
Yes, Mate.

Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,274
  • Jan 20, 2025 6:53am Jan 20, 2025 6:53am
Quoting Pasha7777
{image}
Would be better to see your trades on a lower time frame chart like M5.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,275
  • Jan 20, 2025 7:03am Jan 20, 2025 7:03am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,276
  • Jan 20, 2025 7:15am Jan 20, 2025 7:15am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,277
  • Jan 20, 2025 7:17am Jan 20, 2025 7:17am
That's all I did today...I didn't fix the last deal because I was hoping to catch a good move....in vain
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  • #19,278
  • Jan 20, 2025 7:26am Jan 20, 2025 7:26am
Why when price crosses previous day high/low it will move away from that level?
  • #19,279
  • Jan 20, 2025 7:34am Jan 20, 2025 7:34am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #19,280
  • Jan 20, 2025 7:41am Jan 20, 2025 7:41am
Quoting lorecavoli
Why when price crosses previous day high/low it will move away from that level?
When price crosses a line, is it moving towards the line or away from it?

Socratic method is named after the classical Greek philosopher Socrates. It is a form of inquiry and discussion between individuals, based on asking and answering questions to stimulate critical thinking and to illuminate ideas.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
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