Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 12,231 Posts | Online Now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...l?d=1721753447

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

All SCREEN SHOTS show ALL Forex trades BEFORE and AFTER the FOREX Traes !!!

NOTE from BWM: This $50,000 US dollars FXCM UK Demo account was opened on January 15, 2025.

In the last 20 years, TOP FOREX traders rarely earn over 5% a month or 60% a year and NEVER more than 3 years in a row. There are reasons for this.

My students are expected to earn 5% a month under my guidance for 90 days, the length of my hands-on teaching.

Forex trading presents vast opportunities for profit through its high liquidity and leverage options. However, it also carries inherent risks, demanding a thorough understanding of market mechanics, disciplined trading strategies, and effective risk management. As a dynamic and complex financial market, Forex offers global challenges and rewards to participants.

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News from around the world. Please CLICK on the link below.

https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading and Information course by sending E Transfer of 125.00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

"Trader", does not mean that the sole objective is to make money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd which is unsuccessful

Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.

Each day around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or OFF.

No indicator can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down or up 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do. This happens sometimes in one day so normal charting cannot work.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed in 2003 when I started trading Forex and later in 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS.

A STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, making it almost impossible to make profits over one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, you are wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you, Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.

20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It consists of understanding supply and demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see daily on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. We review These Winning Trade Plans every three months or earlier if market circumstances require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data released daily worldwide. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't Forex trading, they stare at screens and force trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the Britain election have on forex markets? The election took place on Thursday, July 4, 2024.


The answers to your excellent questions will happen by you registering to post on Forex Factory so you can then post your questions or comments on my thread.

THE RETAIL SALES NUMBER FOR DECEMBER 2024 WILL BE RELEASED at 8:30 AM.

If the number is low the PERCEPTION, not the REALITY which they cannot do practically because it will lead to more inflation. Most commercial and retail Forex traders have no idea what QE (Quantative Easing) and QT (Quantative Tightning) do to CAUSE INFLATION.

If you want to call me and discuss it further I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer in Canadian funds to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

The fee is 125.00 dollars in Canadian funds from your bank account by E-Transfer.

We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.

We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year by signing up. You have zero risk as the information that you will have access to is invaluable.

Here is the link.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF TODAY and Every Forex trading day from Sunday at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Europe to 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when North American Equity Markets start trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on Monday.

This X-RAY and PATTERN repeats between Sunday and Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when All Forex Trading stops until 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when New Zealand opens for trading followed by Asia at 8:00 PM, Europe at 2:00 AM and North America at 9:30 AM.

ABSOLUTE FORTUNES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND !!! And you show that you have the DISCIPLINE by your results to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED and EGO !!! The markets are always right until they are not.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

If you want to call me and discuss it further I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. I will spend a minimum of 30 minutes with you on the telephone to answer any of your questions at NO COST TO YOU. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyr[email protected]

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

NOTE: PLEASE REGISTER TO POST ON THIS THREAD. WE CAN THEN HELP YOU BECOME SKILLED WITH 24/7 Guidance. It costs nothing to register and takes less than 5 minutes.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND LOOK AT THE REPEATING X-RAY Each Forex Trading Day.

You Need To Act So I Can Help You DISCOVER if you have the SKILLS to become a winning Forex trader using LEVERAGE of 100 to 1.

Our Forex Trade Plan from January 1, 2025, until March 31, 2025, is SHORT 50 UNITS of DOW 30, SHORT 50 UNITS of SP500, Go LONG 100 ounces of Gold and 5000 Ounces of Silver. I usually choose one of the MAJOR Currency Pairs to SHORT or GO LONG ON.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

CLICK ON THIS LINK - IT IS THE 5-Minute Chart Of Dow 30. See how the KNOWN PATTERNS REPEAT -
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

The Dow Jones 30 (DJIA) went UP OVER 700 points YESTERDAY when the actual trading started and 4:00 PM when the markets closed.

I was travelling between Montreal and my home in Riviere Rouge, Quebec and I did no Forex trades HOWEVER, I opened a NEW DEMO account and have already put on my FIRST FOREX TRADE for today with a PROFIT TARGET of $500.00.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...l?d=1722691331

THE WRONG PERCEPTION WORLDWIDE CONTINUED IN THE STOCK MARKETS.

WHY? Most Traders and EXPERTS do not understand ECONOMICS. READ THE JANUARY 2025 JOHN HUSSMAN NEWSLETTER.
HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF the last 24 hours as it repeats every day which is why my results are so spectacular and PROFITABLE.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND SIGN UP OR CALL ME FOR A ONE-ON-ONE 30-minute discussion. Thanks - BWM

PEOPLE who are viewing your thread, would DECIDE weather asking questions is DISRESPECFUL?? OR you have NO answer.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...oney-and-state

"Hoover Had The Largest Peacetime Deficits In US History"; Economists Debate Money And The State

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg

by Tyler Durden
Friday, January 17, 2025 - 02:45 PM
“He who controls the money supply of a nation controls the nation.” - James Garfield

From economic history to in-depth analysis of today’s financial plumbing, last night’s MMT Vs Austrian debate assessed the roles of debt and currency within the State.

In the Austrian corner was Bob Murphy, a senior fellow at the Mises Institute. Across from him, Fields Institute researcher Nathan Tankus made the case for Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Moderating was Jack Farley of Monetary Matters.
Here were the key moments:
Austrians & The Great Depression: The Textbooks Lied

Did “free market excesses” cause The Great Depression? This is what Americans learn in public school. Murphy, however, provided counterpoints to the narrative. Principally, Herbert Hoover was not laissez-faire:
“Contrary to what people may have heard, Herbert Hoover had the largest peacetime deficits in US history up to that point. And then FDR came and his new deal just expanded upon what Hoover did.”

MMT & Central Planning: Carbon Taxes?
The government must curb people’s behaviour. That is the argument from Tankus during his opening remarks, saying Climate Change necessitates a “massive mobilization of resources.”

“The private sector and some fancy price game is not going to be the thing that makes decisions about how our electricity grid works,” he said. “We kind of have to make choices on how our electricity grid works.”

According to Tankus, by shifting the understanding of money from ca onventional budget-constraint focus to the inflation-constrained view, these mass changes in human choices can be achieved.
“You need to make design choices to incentivize certain outcomes… we need public money to incentivize people to make choices.”

Asked how to deal with climate change without government, Murphy said he does not believe it is an existential threat nor would he put his faith in government if it were.

“If the governments of the world limited global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, that would be worse for humanity than doing nothing.”

Watch the full debate below:

These debates would not be possible without our sponsor, JMBullion.com, trusted and used by ZeroHedge.

1. Dec 5, 2016 6:43am | Edited 7:13am

1. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 12,942 Posts | Online Now

Good Morning Everyone

My subject this morning is PERCEPTION and REALITY. The results of the Italian referendum last night are a perfect example of that. In normal times which means free markets where we have proper price discovery, it is easier to make speculative decisions on market trades. Today we all live in a financial world where the truth is always distorted by those in control. The control for the moment rests with the Central Banks of the world led by The Federal Reserve and followed by the ECB and the BOJ and the BOE.

After the financial meltdown of 2008 involving Lehman Brothers and TARP, which originally was voted down in the USA and then approved, the financial world entered into uncharted waters never seen before. It started with QE in the USA and it continued with Draghi in Europe saying he would do whatever had to be done. We also see the failed monetary policies of the last ten years in Japan by the BOJ.

So now we live in a world of NIRP and the attempt all over the world especially recently in India to remove the 500 Rupee and 1000 Rupee as legal tender. Because of the Money Printing and Helicopter Drops clearly stated by Bernake in his role as Fed Chairman, there has been so much electronic cash created that now the Central Banks of the World must remove actual cash from the World before the Public figures out that the real cash does not exist and if everyone realized the truth that all monies would be removed from the banks of the world and our financial systems would immediately collapse.

So with the first two paragraphs as background is it any wonder that at times the ability to understand day-to-day movements in the various currencies is impossible? The fact that EUR/USD has gone up and the markets are ignoring the REALITY and looking at the market psychology of the PERCEPTION then it follows that the MARKET is always right until it is not. Another excellent example with real-life consequences is the behaviour of the US Stock Markets and the World Bond Markets since November 8, 2016, and the election of Donald J Trump.

Based only on hope and surely, NOT REALITY the wrong assumptions of stimulus in the USA with the NEW Trump Presidency have led to over Two Trillion Dollars of loss in the World Bond Markets and new highs in the Dow and SP500. There is no possibility that everything will NOT reverse when REALITY TRUMPS PERCEPTION and that is the whole point. It is in the knowledge of reality and the timing of the reality taking effect.

It would be most appreciated to have some feedback so intelligent discussions can be entertained. This week might be the week for REALITY when we hear from the ECB on Thursday and of course next week the FED meets on December 13, 2016 and comes out with their Rate Decision on December 14, 2016. This could be the principle of buying the rumour and selling the news which is what seems to have happened with Italy and the referendum results. When the FED raises rates for the first time in one year even last December when they raised there was a strong indication by them of 4 more raises during 2016. We live in interesting times.

NOTE: The more things change, the more they stay the same.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading

An Extract from the book of “Beat the Odds in Forex Trading” by Igor Toshchakov, published by Wiley

A successful trader’s career mainly depends on his or her psychological stability in stressful situations, which are common in the process of trading. Theoretical knowledge can be acquired by reading professional literature; practical skills and experience are acquired in the process of actual trading. The most difficult process is adjusting to psychological stress because in real life it is impossible to eliminate the stress factor influencing human activity. Underestimating the stress factor could play a mean trick on the trader and even completely block their abilities to make reasonable decisions in real trading situations. The psychological stress of those trading in the FOREX (and any other) market is extremely high. Traders must work under permanent psychological pressure, making decisions in highly unpredictable and uncertain market situations.

Each trader goes through mistakes, failures, and losses in his or her way, in accord with his or her personality and temper. Some might blame their failure on the market’s “wrong behaviour”, which didn’t comply with the trader’s brilliant forecast and caused the failure of the magnificently planned speculative combination. Others blame themselves and their inability to make right decisions in situations, which afterwards seem to be simple. It is an interesting fact that, in hindsight, traders usually find the decision that should have been made at the most critical moment and can reasonably prove their point of view. Why can they find the right decision so easily and quickly in hindsight? Was the trader unable to do so at the right moment? I don’t think it can be simply explained by looking at yesterday’s situation from today’s point of view. I do not think it can be explained by the fact that classical technical analysis allows for multiple explanations of almost any market situation. It is always possible to find an appropriate basic explanation for any market shift after the event takes place. In the heat of the moment, however, the trader was influenced by stress, and that stress caused the error. This is proven by the fact that most novice traders show exceptionally good (and even phenomenal) results trading dummy accounts but can’t even come near those results when trading with real money.

Being permanently under stress, a trader can often make insufficiently considered, impulsive, and therefore, wrong decisions that result in losses or premature liquidation of a profitable position, that is, in lost profit. Sometimes, after a few successive failures with various trades, traders become fearful of the market. They are in a state of psychological stupor, and even a simple market situation may cause panic. They cannot overcome their emotions or soberly evaluate the current situation, and they are unable to make any decision – reasonable or otherwise. In many cases when the market situation shifts against the trader’s position, they can only passively watch the growth of their losses, because they are unable to make any decision at all. Often, after the market stabilizes and traders have the opportunity to calmly analyze daily diagrams of currency fluctuations, they conclude that the main cause of failure was not the lack of knowledge or training but their own emotions. However, the situation cannot be reversed. Time has passed, money has been lost, even everything should begin again.

Another problem that causes severe and even catastrophic consequences is the trader’s wilful thinking. In this case, traders are sure that their forecast of market trends is solely correct. They feel the market cannot and should not give any surprises. They do not consider other options that could be helpful or they think of other options in a vague and uncertain form. Sometimes, traders consider a market shift against their positions. They acquire new contracts at a lower price in the hope that the market situation will come back, and all the positions will become highly profitable. Afterwards, as the situation worsens, they will be able to come out of the market without serious losses. Being sure they are right, traders lose the ability to critically evaluate the condition of the market and accordingly their position in the market. In this case, they consider only those basic and technical features that justify their wishful thinking, and they discard the contradicting features. This wishful thinking costs them dearly and can lead to psychological frustration. The market’s “wrong behaviour” not only deprives traders of a certain amount of money and often ruins their trading account, but also undermines their self-esteem and their hopes of being a winner in the trading battle.

After such a loss, traders blame themselves, repeatedly going through the details of the unsuccessful trade. They blame the market for the “wrong behaviour” or themselves for errors in what then seems an absolutely clear situation. Sometimes, the trader-market relationship takes the form of a vendetta. Traders consider the market as their enemy, treat it in an unfriendly way (even with hate) and dream of immediate revenge. Doing so, they miss the fact ht at they are essentially blaming nature for changing sunny weather to rain. It is very important to be prepared beforehand for this change. Traders should always have close at hand one or a few options in case of a sudden change of the situation/weather so that their foresight assures their good time or good profit.

The third main psychological problem is trader uncertainty, especially when traders are inexperienced in abilities and skills – specifically about each market position they hold. Immediately after each position is opened and a money contract is bought, traders start questioning their choices. This is revealed most vividly in the case of a moderately active market at the moment of fluctuations close to the opening price of the position. Any moment (even insignificant) against their position causes traders to have an irresistible desire to sell the recently acquired contract to limit losses until it is too late and the market does not shift too far away from their position opening price. On the other hand, an insignificant market shift in the desirable direction causes the same desire to eliminate the position, until it provides for any (even tiny) profit and before this profit does not turn into losses.

Sacred and trouble traders rush and race about. They open and liquidate their positions too often, and experience many small losses and gains. Within a short period, they turn intermittently into bulls or bears. As a result, they suffer losses on a dealer’s spread and/or commissions when there were no significant market changes, and all the market fluctuations were no more than just regular market “noise”. Such losses are typical for beginners and individual traders with small investment capital or little experience and insufficient psychological preparation.

Not uncommon are cases of traders’ impulsive decisions on trading, without any plans or serious preliminary market analysis. The position is opened under an impulsive, invalid emotional reaction. Often, it can be explained by traders’ fear of losing a brilliant opportunity to earn money they think is being offered by the market at that moment. I have witnessed these attempts to jump onto the last carriage of a departing train, and such attempts have ruined a lot of traders. Many traders cannot calmly watch any kind of market movements. Some of my students have confirmed this reality. If they have no positions at the moment of more or less significant market movement, they consider it as a lost opportunity to gain profit. This can inflict a serious shock on them.

When they have no position, they seem unable to realize that each market movement can be considered both ways, and the opposite situation can quite possibly develop. Statistics show that, at each market movement, the chances to lose are much higher than to profit. How does it happen that reasonable people (who in everyday life, without any emotion, can watch a bank cashier counting other people’s money) consider the fact of market movement as a threat to their own pockets? Why is other people’s money in the hands of a bank cashier not considered as a lost profit, whereas capital shift on the market and the corresponding quote fluctuations are causes of negative emotions? I think the answer is in the illusory simplicity of business itself, which is considered by many people as a good and simple opportunity to earn a lot of easy money. Similar notions are widely spread among novice currency traders. The sooner traders abandon such ideas, the sooner they become professionally efficient traders.

The most difficult problem for every trader (regardless of their experiences) is to learn as quickly as possible how to recover quickly from losses, which are inevitable in this business. At the same time, they must learn to handle shocks and psychological damage inflicted by the losses, because their situations could negatively influence their future work.

The losses themselves and the fear of losing, both of which permanently torture traders, negatively influence their ability to make reasonable decisions in a complicated situation. These factors also undermine traders’ ability to follow their own rules about trade strategies and systems.

I have become personally acquainted with hundreds of traders and have watched their activities. I have taught many students, and have had my own experience as a trader at various steps of my career in the currency market. Therefore, I have concluded that the main causes of trader failures in speculative operations in the FOREX market are without a doubt those associated with psychological trauma – the inability to control their own emotions and to find an adequate way to fight stress.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

1. Dec 6, 2016, 9:59 pm | Edited 10:47 pm

1. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 12,944 Posts | Online Now

The Wrap Up - Nightly

https://yragharris.com/2016/12/06/bannon/

The following article from above says it ALL for my Wrap.

Snippet:

Even though Steve Bannon is no Beau Brummel, the music of this early rock song must be ringing in his ears. It seems clear to all but the dumbest media talking heads that the Bannon plan for Trump's continued flow of tweeting is an attempt to make sure the Trump team controls the NARRATIVE. (See Ben Hunt's magnificent piece at Epsilon about the significance of the narrative.) This is important for investors and traders because Trump's ability to control the narrative makes us all focus away from the events of the greatest possible consequence. Today, the airwaves were echoing the Trump tweet of the President-elect threatening to cancel the orders for two new Air Force One planes, the President's fleet.

The Donald tweeted that the planes were far too costly and Boeing was gouging the U.S. government. The Trump tweet followed criticism from Boeing executives about the negative impact that Trump's foreign and trade policy could have on Boeing's business with China. Predictably, the media took the bait of the excessive pricing of Air Force One and failed to delve deeper into the trade concerns of Boeing and others. As Jon of Vine Street consistently says: It is just a three-card Monte game, but that is a game in which the dealer certainly controls the narrative. This is going to be the setting for investors so I warn that it becomes mandatory to not lose focus on the important issues as the tweeter-in-chief tells us to look over there.
To the mainstream media, Steve Bannon was heard singing:
Laugh, laugh, I thought I'd die
It seemed so funny to me
Laugh, laugh, you met a guy
Who taught you how it feels to be
Lonely, oh, so lonely

***Now for things to focus on: The Italian referendum was defeated by a huge margin in what was a heavy turnout. The Italian media noted that an increased percentage of voters would favour the YES outcome as young people would support Prime Minister Renzi. WRONG AGAIN! It seems that young voters were heavily opposed to the reform measures promoted by the Italian prime minister. This has to be a concern for the euro elite for they tried to spin the narrative of Brexit as the old versus the young. The younger voters who are a more enlightened and global-oriented constituency didn't turn out in large enough numbers and therefore BREXIT prevailed.

However, as I cautioned, a Renzi defeat would be beneficial for the sitting prime minister as Merkel, Juncker and Mario Draghi would increase aid to the Italian government to bolster Renzi. Eurogroup President Jeron Dijsselbloem maintained yesterday that Italy couldn't be EXPECTED to meet its 2017 budgetary commitments. A Reuters article quoted Dijsselbloem: Italy needs to take necessary measures to reduce its debt but it is impossible for now to demand more from the country given its current political uncertainty.

Wow, I wonder how the Greeks feel upon hearing this from Captain Javert of Greek austerity enforcement. Besides mercy from Brussels, Mario Draghi is actively purchasing massive amounts of Italian debt, trying to crush the yield differential between Germany and Italy. This is pure market manipulation by a man with a PRINTING PRESS. But the outcome of the ECB actions and forbearance by Brussels has been a positive for the Italian stock market, except for the beleaguered banks. The problems of Italy are still there regardless of how much sovereign debt the ECB buys. Draghi is just making it harder for the Germans to say NO to its EU partners when it comes to debt sharing. The significance of the ECB and Brussels's reaction function to the Italian referendum will be revealed at Thursday's ECB meeting.

Some analysts believe that the ECB may announce a TAPERING of ITS QE purchases. I am highly skeptical of such an outcome. Mario Draghi will probably extend QE to the end of September from March, or increase the purchases from the current 80 billion euros a month. A more difficult proposition for Draghi would be undertaking the buying of bank debt, which is currently not allowed, but under the legal direction of the ECJ, anything that preserves the EURO and the EU is allowed under EC law.

In the current political situation, there will be no ECB TAPERING. The ECB meeting will also reveal how much dissension there is from the German wing of the ECB board. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann was talking today about the need for structural reform and fiscal policy to deal with weak growth. Continuation of liquidity should not be the sole agent of economic growth. Even though this an official blackout period it reflects the unease of Germany with the ECB QE program.

***This was not tweeted: There is a vast difference of opinion between U.S. banks and EU banks on regulatory rules. In a Financial Times article, US Banks Face Clash With EU Over Plan For Holding Groups, it seems that EU regulators are proposing rules for the large U.S. money center banks that are in direct contravention of U.S. regulations. This seems to be a retaliatory move in response to U.S. regulators pursuing higher capital ratio rules for foreign banks with U.S. subsidiaries. This will push U.S. dollar-based funding higher as capital will not be available for currency swaps. Oh, but I will wait for Donald to tweet it before it gains any traction in the media. Laugh, laugh I'm beginning to cry.

***The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate policy tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. CST. The consensus calls for the overnight rate to be kept at 0.50%. I agree with that for things are steady in Canada with oil prices holding at recent elevated levels and the Canadian dollar is fairly stable. The only issue will be if Governor Poloz notes concern about the real estate market running hot, especially with the recent bout of fiscal stimulus from the Trudeau program (influenced by Larry Summers). The Canadian economy may begin running hot so let's see if Poloz signals any forward guidance on future rate hikes. Do you work on Canadian dollar support levels? Be patient and let the alga work for you.

Snippet:
Oil price surge and improving conditions to keep interest rate on hold
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will release its rate statement on Wednesday, December 7 at 10:00 am EST. The central bank is not expected to update its benchmark rate from 0.50 percent. Recovering oil prices thanks to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut agreement and improving Canadian data will help the BoC remain on the sidelines in the last meeting of 2016.

BoC governor Stephen Poloz was proactive in 2015 with two rate cuts ahead of further drops in oil prices that were forecasted to hurt the Canadian economy. Poloz was right and his decision softened the blow somewhat, but energy prices kept dropping, especially at the start of 2016 as a supply glut threatened to keep the price of crude in free fall. Saudi Arabia and Russia proposed an oil production curb agreement, that went to some failed attempts until finally crystallizing in the latest meeting in Vienna.

The weekly release of U.S. oil inventories will be published at 10:30 am EST giving insight into American crude stocks. CAD traders will be on alert as rhetoric from the Bank of Canada and its comments on the impending Fed interest rate hike later this month will be combined with oil stats ahead of the meeting in Vienna with non-OPEC members on Saturday.

https://www.oanda.com/labsds/graph/U...12-06_1d_m.png

The USD/CAD gained 0.19 percent in the last 24 hours. The pair is trading at $1.3286 after the release of Canadian trade data is showing a lack of competitiveness that is negatively impacting exports. The October trade report showed

http://www.marketpulse.com/20161206/...OERxc3M9In0%3D

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...ed-paper-money

Pillaged By Paper Money

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden

Friday, January 17, 2025 - 08:55 PM
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The American people will pay a high price for the 2024 U.S. presidential election and probably for years. I’m not speaking of the results which astonished the world; I’m speaking of the attempt to game the intended results that began more than a year earlier.
It won’t come in the form of higher taxes. It will be inflation, which is another form of taxation.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=ZSSevMC6

The problem of dollar devaluation could have been over by now but no. All evidence is that the Biden administration, in service of larger interests and accommodation of Congressional spending, deployed the printing presses starting in 2023 to ensure its reelection chances. It did not work and now we are stuck with the bill.

What I said above is a reasonable interpretation of why the Federal Reserve reversed its stance on the money spigot in 2023 and the following.
There was never an excuse to do so. Inflation had already ravaged producers and consumers. The priority was getting it under control. Instead, they went the other way, thus risking a second wave, which might just be getting going.

The latest producer and consumer price reports look simply awful, a full-on reversal of downward trends to reveal a renewed problem.

Now that Trump has taken office, the corporate media and the Bureau of Labor Statistics is suddenly being more forthcoming about the problem. Inflation is running at 3 percent or 50 percent above the target. The low-end estimate of purchasing power losses since 2020 is 23 cents on the dollar. The real-time estimates are closer to 30 cents. The reality depending on what you buy is far higher.

Let there be no confusion about the source of the problem.
It is not gouging grocers. It is not greedy consumers. It is not an opportunistic supplier. It is not even restrictions on energy production.
It is the money printers in D.C. who have deployed their powers to print in service of a Congress that has spent without limit as if the resources will all appear just like magic. The flood of debt has granted the Fed an enormous portfolio available for playing politics.

Again, one only needs to observe the relationship between M2, the most accurate rendering of the money stock we have, against the CPI. The relationship is impossible to deny both in terms of the data and also the theory. It’s not complicated really but requires just a bit of thought.

Thomas Massie gives the example of 10 apples and 10 dollars, in an economy where all money is spent. Each apple costs a dollar. If the money stock is doubled, each apple costs two dollars. And so on. It’s a simple example but gets the point across. In the real world, there is a lag of the effect, between 12 and 18 months. In this case, the lag hits the 12-month mark almost exactly.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=5nBhONyf
(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

None of this is a mystery. The hatred of paper-money printing traces to the very foundation of the nation. Thomas Paine wrote about it extensively. He was an opponent of tyranny and a very thoughtful and brilliant person. He read extensively on history and economic theory as it stood in his time. He stated very clearly:

1. “I know not why we should be so fond of paper money; it has no intrinsic value and is not money, but a promise to pay money.”
2. “Paper money is like dram-drinking, it relieves for a moment by deceit.”
3. “The evils of paper money have no end. It is a swindle upon the people, and the foundation of all other swindles.”

His views were shared widely among the Founding Fathers. When the Constitution was written, it included a clause requiring states (which managed money) to use only gold and silver in coinage. That clause was long adjudicated by the courts and eventually the proponents of paper money found a means around it, via various emergency declarations and suspensions. The gold standard was restored following the Civil War but suspended again and again. Eventually, the specie backing was removed entirely.

For a long time, between 1933 and 1974, it was illegal even to own gold for investment purposes. That changed and then the United States started minting gold coins again but not as part of official money. They are collectibles, very beautiful but not usable as legal tender. The link between U.S. monetary policy and gold is entirely broken.

Ideally, it would be restored. Problem: no one knows how this could happen. There is no real viable plan to get from here to there. The United States would have to own vast quantities of gold and there would need to be a fixed ratio of exchange, and this would have to pertain not only in the United States but also abroad. The decision alone would cause a mass repatriation of dollars and exhaust the gold stock in a day.

In short, the practical problems associated with restoring a genuine gold standard are inconceivably huge. An even bigger problem is mustering the political will to do it. Both parties benefit from the paper-money system and the flexible monetary policy, for which the U.S. citizen ultimately pays the highest price.
There are other paths toward sound money. The money stock could be instantly frozen, but that would induce deflation on a scale that would be seen as intolerable. I happen not to think this would be a bad thing. A growing purchasing power of money would benefit the people. But the expert class disagrees, warning of a terrible recession. And the reality would likely back that prediction.

The trouble is that the U.S. economy and, really, the world economy, are deeply addicted to debt finance. Putting a stop to that would be very painful. The political will to do that simply is not there.

The genuinely constitutional solution would be to return all responsibility for monetary policy to the states alone, abolishing the central bank entirely. The U.S. Treasury could mint its currency but that poses dangers of its own. Whether and to what extent those dangers would be as bad as the Fed now is another question.

In the near term, the solution is simply to force the Fed to stop playing politics with its monetary powers. The interest rates should be completely set free from Fed intervention. Open market operations and debt buying and selling should stop entirely. The rest would take care of itself.

Economists I respect suggest a quantity rule that would tie monetary policy to output. While that solution looks good on paper, measuring output accurately is no longer such an easy task. The GDP numbers as they stand are very sketchy and so are the numbers on the inflation rate itself. Without accurate numbers, the capacity of the Fed to conduct monetary policy in any scientific manner pretty well evaporates.

Let us hope that the new Trump administration eventually gets around to dealing with the problem of paper money inflation. It might have to do so given the genuine risk of a second wave of inflation that could doom its political legacy.

I hope someone in the Trump administration is listening: at minimum, the Fed must stop its quantitative easing and commit itself to a policy of monetary stabilization at the very least. Yes, we could face a technical recession and that is politically dangerous. But a continuation of inflation is even more so.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ks-faced-world

These Are What 'Experts' See As The Largest Risks Faced By The World

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by Tyler Durden

Saturday, January 18, 2025 - 09:35 PM

Over the next 10 years, climate change and its consequences will pose the greatest risk to the world. That’s according to more than 900 global experts from academia, business and politics, who were asked to evaluate 33 global risks over a two-year and a 10-year horizon for the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Risks Report.

With inflation having eased in most parts of the world, the experts no longer consider the cost-of-living crisis one of the most pressing issue in the short-term.

Instead, as Statista's Felix Richter details below, for the second year in a row, misinformation and disinformation is considered the most severe risk over the next two years. Following the "super election year" 2024, misinformation is still considered a major risk, as AI tools have facilitated the creation of false information, be it in the form of text, image or even video. It has the potential to further sow division, resulting in even more polarized societies, which are prone to radicalization and political unrest.

Looking at the 10-year horizon, misinformation is expected to remain a major threat, but the four most severe risks faced by the world are all predicted to be related to climate change over the coming decade.

Climate change is no longer seen as a long-term problem only, however, as this year's report reveals a growing sense of alarm in the short term as well. Extreme weather events are rated as the second most severe risk for the present and the near future, marking a notable shift from past editions of the report.

The following chart nicely illustrates the difference between what experts consider short-term risks and which challenges will shape the world for years or even decades to come.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/...mal/29197.jpeg

You will find more infographics at Statista

In conclusion, the 20th edition of the WEF’s Global Risks Report finds "an increasingly fractured global landscape, where escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal and technological change.


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VERY IMPORTANT TO READ AND UNDERSTAND - IT IS THE BOND MARKETS THAT LEAD THE WAY !!!

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/09/bo...te-repression/

“Bond Market Rout” in the UK (like in the US) Only Pushes the 10-Year Yield into Low End of Old Normal after Many Years of Interest Rate Repression
by Wolf Richter • January 9, 2025 •


A normal cost of capital is a form of much-needed discipline for governments and investors after years of free money turned their brains to mush.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The 10-year yield of UK government securities rose to 4.82% today, the highest since July 2008. The 30-year gilt yield rose at one point today to 5.47%, the highest since 1998, though it backed down to 5.38%. So the UK is a little ahead of US Treasury yields (4.69% and 4.93% respectively).

There was a lot of hand-wringing in the financial media today and recently about those surging yields, with terms like “gilt market rout” getting into the headlines, and some even seeing a “return of the bond vigilantes,” etc. etc. But wait a minute…

Back on July 29, 2020, the 10-year gilt yield had dropped to an all-time low of 0.09%, back when everyone holding gilts was clamouring for yields to go negative because these holders would benefit from falling yields. After all, bond prices rise when yields fall, and that path into the negative would be the necessary and logical continuation of the 40-year bond bull market and make it an eternal bond bull market, with yields falling ever deeper into the negative, or whatever.

But that final descent from the range of 4-5% in 2008 to nearly % in 2020 was caused by global interest rate repression, with the Bank of England cutting its Bank Rate to near 0% and keeping it there for 14 years (ZIRP), accompanied during some periods by large-scale QE.

Then inflation took off in 2021. The BoE eventually hiked its Bank Rate to 5.25%, and QE flipped to QT. After two careful rate cuts last year, the BoE’s Bank Rate is still 4.75%.

But the thing is, today’s 10-year gilt yield is back in the normal range – normal before ZIRP and QE. It’s actually at the low end of the normal range, and just barely above the BoE’s short-term Bank Rate. It’s at the low end of where it should be in normal times.

The return to normal, after those crazy years, should be seen as a good thing, even if sorting out some of the excesses of those crazy years isn’t always easy.
And a normal cost of capital, provided by the bond market, is a form of much-needed discipline for governments and investors after years of free money had turned their brains to mush.


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January 18, 2025
Trump Drops “Crypto Bombshell” After Musk Warns “Immediate Action Needed To Prevent America From Going Bankrupt”
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A compelling new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting the International Monetary Fund raised its Russian economic growth forecast for 2025 yesterday, says this came at the same time it was grimly reported: “In mid-January, the US national debt reached $36.174 trillion, or $106,400 per American” and the United States Congressional Budget Office gravely revealed: “From 2025 to 2035, debt swells as increases in mandatory spending and interest costs outpace growth in revenues...Federal debt held by the public rises from 100 percent of GDP this year to 118 percent in 2035, surpassing its previous high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946”.

Also yesterday, this report notes, top socialist Biden Regime official Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen notified Congressional leaders the nation will hit its debt ceiling the day after President Donald Trump is inaugurated and that the agency will begin “extraordinary measures” to stave off the threat of a national default—a notification swiftly followed by top President Trump advisor Elon Musk warning: “Major and immediate action is needed to prevent America from going bankrupt”.

Quickly after Musk issued his dire warning about America going bankrupt, this report continues, President Trump announced that his swearing-in ceremony was being moved indoors—an announcement joined by the shocking news that socialist Democrat Party cities around Washington refused to provide police forces to protect the planned outdoor Trump swearing-in ceremony—and it was then dangerously reported: “A poll conducted by RMG Research reveals a startling 42% of federal government managers who say they will actively oppose the incoming administration when Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20”

Following President Trump's announcement that his swearing-in ceremony is moving indoors, this report details, his former White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany observed: “What’s interesting to me is the Ronald Reagan comparison, because not only is the inauguration indoors, you have the hostage release right before Trump comes in...You had the assassination attempt, Ronald Reagan as well...Trump is a Reagan-esque president in more ways than one”, and his daughter-in-law Lara Trump defiantly declared: “Every time they take a shot and they miss, they strengthen President Trump, and they strengthen the movement around him”.

After Musk issued his dire warning about America going bankrupt at 11:05 AM yesterday, this report notes, that about 11 hours later, at 9:44 PM, it saw President Trump posting the cryptocurrency announcement: “My NEW Official Trump Meme is HERE!... It’s time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING!... Join my very special Trump Community...GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW...Go to http://gettrumpmemes.com — Have Fun!”—an announcement followed by the beyond staggering news: “President-elect Donald Trump’s “official” meme coin, TRUMP, has surged to a near $14 billion market capitalization within hours of its launch”.

In July, this report concludes, top President Trump ally United States Senator Cynthia Lummis stunned the world when she unveiled the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill, which would finance purchases of the cryptocurrency partly by revaluing gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve System—Senator Lummis revealed how a strategic cryptocurrency reserve could pay off the entire American national debt—American analysts are now preparing for the “Crypto Bombshell” about to be dropped by President Trump—and world-renowned economists Professor Robert Elliott and Associate Professor Huw Macartney at the University of Birmingham warningly proclaimed this week: “Trump’s plan for a strategic bitcoin reserve could trigger a crypto arms race and reshape the global economic order”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no counterpart.]


https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/otm22.png
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/otm21.png


January 18, 2025 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content is licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

Former World Has Passed Away—Future Is Up For Grabs
Terrified Tech Billionaires Establish Trump End Times Government

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Here's Why The Stage Has Been Set For War With Iran...

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by Tyler Durden
Saturday, January 18, 2025 - 10:10 PM


Authored by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com,
The stage is set for a major war with Iran. Let’s first go back to what’s happened and the potential implications.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=uzEvRf03

Ten days after the attacks of 11 September 2001, former US Army General Wesley Clark revealed a controversial military strategy. In a conversation in the corridors of the Pentagon, Clark learned of a secret plan to “eliminate seven countries in five years.” This 2007 revelation raised many questions about the real motivations of the “War on Terror” and the garbage narrative fed to the world via mainstream media.

Clark reported that the plan was to invade Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and, finally, Iran. The surprisingly extensive list raised questions about US intentions and global strategy after the 9/11 attacks.

According to Clark, the decision to attack Iraq was made without clear justification, underlining officials’ inability to deal with the terrorist threat effectively. The conversation that took place between Clark and another senior Pentagon official revealed the uncertainty and confusion within the upper echelons of the military. “Are we going to war with Iraq? Why?” asked Clark. The answer was puzzling: “I don’t know. I guess they don’t know what else to do.”

This admission highlighted the lack of a coherent strategy and a willingness to use military power to topple governments rather than directly confront the terrorist threat. Clark’s statement emphasized how the “War on Terror” had been executed ineffectively and for political reasons rather than a real need for national security.

The list of target countries seemed aimed at consolidating US political and military influence in strategically important regions rather than eliminating concrete threats. Twenty years after the 9/11 attacks, Clark’s words still resonate as a warning.

Remembering these events is crucial to understanding today’s geopolitical dynamics and the consequences of the decisions made then. The war in Iraq, which began in 2003, was only the first step in a series of military interventions conducted at the behest of Israel, which have had significant repercussions throughout the Middle East and beyond.

Remember General Wesley Clark?
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=SGntSut-
For a reminder, watch this.


In any event, the West is nearly wetting themselves with glee saying that Syria is now “free.” By free, of course, they have this guy.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=4GVtUxQv

Jolani, we are told, is the face of freedom. Who is he? Al-Jolani who fought against the US in Iraq before joining Islamic State and Al-Qaeda and later founding the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, earned a $10 million bounty on his head. As the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), he oversaw a regime of what the UN classified as “war crimes” in Idlib province.

But fortunately for Western media, they’re mostly talking to a bunch of ignorant peasants who won’t do even a cursory investigation into whether or not they’re being fed porkies or not, so here he is, a reformed, legitimate, moderate leader.

Since the 7 Countries in 5 Years project is entirely an Israeli-led initiative, it is no surprise to see Israel stampeding into the country and bombing the shit out of much of it. The operation to divide Syria will now commence. My guess is Erdy struck a deal and will get a chunk of the north, and Israel will move forward with the greater Israel project.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=0xxMMPJp
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=wOjw6omo


Just keep in mind that as we watch this taking place in front of our very eyes, any statements to the facts mentioned will be immediately met with the label of “anti-Semitism.”
It is the same strategy that has been used to silence truth. The labels of “conspiracy theorist,” “anti-vaxxer,” “climate denier,” etc. — all are specifically designed to shut down any debate on the topic at hand while ridiculing those pointing out the obvious. The “anti-Semitism” label is no different. Expect to see it wielded with greater tyranny over the coming years.

The US and therefore NATO will be brought to the fore to fight these wars on behalf of Israel. You didn’t think that Jeffrey Epstein’s hard work for Mossad wouldn’t be put to work, did you?

Which brings me to….

Did Erdy Just Sign His Death Warrant?
Erdy has been in power since March 2003. That’s a long time. He’s repeatedly made reference to his vision of restoring Turkey’s influence over former Ottoman territories.

This has led to a rebellious (and often ambitious) foreign policy, however, he is what I like to call politically promiscuous — he’ll screw anyone.
Before we get into what’s just happened — namely Turkey providing military support for the Jihadists to overthrow Assad — let’s dial back the clock to 2016.

In a CIA-led coup attempt, Erdy found himself in a pickle. He was trapped in his resort in Marmaris, pleading on FaceTime with the citizenry after narrowly escaping assassination. It was reportedly Russian intelligence that saved his skin, notifying him of the incoming threat. Since that event, Russian-Turkish relations have been a lot more positive.

So a couple of things happened there. Erdogan had become vehemently anti-Israel, and the coup was a strong message from the West that opposition to Israel would not be tolerated. Secondly, he now owed his life to the Russians.

The way he’s played it ever since has been with ever-increasing trade between the Russians while spewing empty rhetoric about his resistance to Israel but with no actions taken. For example, despite calling out the genocide in Gaza, he has continued the uninterrupted supply of oil to Israel. Furthermore, he’s continued to undermine the Assad government, which — aside from Iran — has been the most anti-Israel government in the region. This also goes against both Russian and Chinese interests, both of whom have been supporters of Assad. Like I said, politically promiscuous.

So as you can see, it’s complicated. But here’s the thing. When you travel around Turkey, you see that all the major developments are financed by… wait for it, Chinese banks. And much of the infrastructure development is in partnership with or exclusively with Russia. Mmmm, tricky!

So why did Erdy collaborate with Israel to take out Assad now? I suspect he’ll walk away with a chunk of northern Syria in a deal already struck. I see Israel taking Western Syria and Turkey taking the Kurdish areas and what it can. Plus, the Americans saying, “Well, we’re here for all the oil, but we’ll give it to Israel.”

The issue is Erdy now has decisively pissed off the Russians for sure as well as the Chinese. And you know what else?

Well, the recent cozying up to Russia and China by the Saudis is likely getting a rethink.

They’ll be correctly thinking, “Hmmm, they’re trying to grab the whole Near East. Maybe we should be very careful about joining BRICS and threatening to move our assets out of the dollar because we could be next.”

They’re familiar with what happened to the US puppet Saddam Hussein, who was originally installed by the CIA, only to then fall out of favour. They know what happened to him. He developed weapons of mass destruction so well concealed they’ve never to this day been found, and 9/11… you know, Al Qaeda was linked to… oh, I dunno. He was a bad man, OK.

The Saudis know that the stories told to the peasants in the West don’t even need to make sense and they will fall for it hook, line, and sinker.

This brings up a point I want to make regarding BRICS. It will shortly dawn on the Chinese in particular and the rest of BRICS that formalizing BRICS as an economic alliance will not be tolerated, and if they are to have a multi-polar world, then they will be forced to form a military alliance, too. And that means WW3. And yes, I know we are already in it, but it will by necessity go over.

What else? As is always the case it is worth following the money. Here is the money…

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=EhtSI_l0

So what we’re likely now to see is the Qatar-Turkey pipeline being pushed. I don’t think it’ll happen for the simple reason that it looks more likely that Syria will become the next Afghanistan. In other words, a fustercluck. Getting any infrastructure built with dozens of factions of warring tribes will prove costly and ultimately won’t happen — at least not within the next five years or so. This in turn is great news for another country, halfway across the world…

* * *

The Western system is undergoing substantial changes, and the signs of moral decay, corruption, and increasing debt are impossible to ignore. With the Great Reset in motion, the United Nations, World Economic Forum, IMF, WHO, World Bank, and Davos man are all promoting a unified agenda that will affect us all. To get ahead of the chaos, download our free PDF report “Clash of the Systems: Thoughts on Investing at a Unique Point in Time” by clicking here.

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Snippet:
10/January/2017


Trump's Ignorance

Hugo Salinas Price
The president-elect of the US, Mr. Trump, does not know what he is doing when he proposes protectionist measures to encourage the reindustrialization of the US and bring home again, the American industry that emigrated to foreign lands.

The US lost their industry as a result of the Bretton Woods Agreements, which were signed (under pressure) by representatives of the allied countries and of the countries conquered by the US in World War II. Those Agreements established the world's monetary system for the post-war world, after the victory of the Allies, which was already in sight in 1944.

The monetary system was to be based on gold, which would be the world's reserve currency, supplemented by the American dollar, which was to be considered "as good as gold". So the world's monetary system was founded upon a lie: that a promise can be as good as the physical thing it promises.

This lie has accumulated a negative "karma" for the US since the moment it was pronounced, and the financial disaster which will overtake the world in the not-distant future is its consequence.

In 1960, the economist Robert Triffin detected the central problem residing in the Bretton Woods Agreements. I detected the same problem without having any knowledge of "Triffin's Paradox", as it has come to be known. Many years ago, sitting in my office smoking my cigar and contemplating the world's financial situation, I came to the same conclusion as Triffin.

In a few words, it turns out that for the international monetary system established at Bretton Woods to function, the US is forced to run a permanent trade deficit with the rest of the world. Year after year, the US must purchase more from the rest of the world, than what the US sells to the rest of the world, thus creating a permanent flow of dollars to the rest of the world. This flow makes possible the creation of Monetary Reserves in the Central Banks of the rest of the world.

Without this constant flow of dollars from the US to the International Reserves of the Central Banks of the world, the currencies issued by those Central Banks would cease to exist. If Banco de México, the Mexican Central Bank, does not have dollars in its Reserves, then Mexicans do not have money: without dollar Reserves, the Mexican peso would not be worth peanuts - at least, in international terms.

To obtain dollars, it is necessary to sell to American customers some products at a lower price than that demanded by an American producer. It is self-evident that there is no other form of introducing an export into US territory, than using underselling an American competitor.

This is the reason why a large part of what was once the great American manufacturing industry has disappeared: the overwhelming need of the rest of the world to export to the US, to obtain dollars, caused the deindustrialization of the US.

It is quite unjust to blame the rest of the world for having caused the deindustrialization of the US and to point an accusing finger at Mexico, for instance, as an enemy of the US because it has been a successful exporter of manufactures to the US. Mexico has simply been operating according to the rules established by the US itself in the Bretton Woods Agreements: the dollar is the world's currency, and at all costs, it is imperative to have dollars for Mexico to have a monetary system.

If Mr. Trump should attempt to eliminate or reduce the US trade deficit and protect and encourage US reindustrialization using tariffs on imports, what he would achieve would be to choke the economies of the rest of the world with a scarcity of dollars obtained - how else? - by exports to the US.

Choking on dollar scarcity, because exports to the US decline or are eliminated, the world will not remain in paralysis. Another alternative to the dollar as the world's currency will be sought, simply because finding an alternative becomes a matter of life or death.

What can take the place of the dollar? Possibly it will be the SDR - the "Special Drawing Rights" created by the International Monetary Fund - another huge lie that has been nicknamed "paper gold". No one knows how what sort of acceptance will be given to this monetary fantasy.

On the other hand, there is gold, latent but repressed: true money that implies a world of balanced trade where there can be no trade deficits or trade surpluses.

Mr. Trump does not know it, but applying a policy of protectionism for American industry through tariffs on imports means the death of the world's monetary system based on the dollar.

Postscript: Dr. Agustin Carstens, Governor of the Bank of Mexico: would it not be convenient to think about the silver coin, given a monetary value by a simple procedure that I suggested years ago?

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1. trading Without a Specific Setup in Mind Like Hiking in the Amazon
   Without a Compass?
2. The person who chases four rabbits catches none.

Hedge Fund CIO: "This Is What A Credible Revolution Looks Like"

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by Tyler Durden
Sunday, January 19, 2025 - 07:15 PM

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

Each generation believes it can create a better world. Were it not so, we would still live in caves.

Some generations thirst for change through revolution. That probably has to do with longer-term economic and political cycles. But for whatever reason, amongst these revolutionary generations, some are more determined, and effective.

The 1960s-70s youth seemed radical, but they were far from French revolutionaries. Their actions failed to spark an inferno. My wife Mara grew up in a hippy enclave during that period. Her town sought to opt out of the system by going backward, living off the land, and returning to simpler times.

But history rarely turns back the clock for long. That generation never had a credible plan to replace the system with something better. Nor did it have new technology to amplify force. The establishment knew this. The youth back then presented no real threat, just the appearance of instability. Daisies and LSD.

But today’s youth have built the technologies to power revolution. Their protocols remain nascent, but if they’re allowed to flourish (or if they cannot be stopped), they will credibly replace incumbent industries that the masses have come to despise (retail banks, commercial banks, central banks, Wall Street, money transfer agents, credit card companies, social media companies, exchanges of every kind, censors, and the list has just started).

Someday these technologies may threaten our notion of centralized government control. In the 1960s-70s, incumbents knew the revolutionaries had no credible plan.
This time, revolutionary technologies are already being rolled out. They are more efficient, cheaper, and faster. They cut out the middlemen. And empower the individual.

Today’s incumbents are threatened with extinction. If today’s business leaders were 30yrs younger, most would be racing to build their companies/wealth in this new field of blockchain.

This is what a credible revolution looks like, waged by brilliant youth, impassioned, with fantastic ideas, immense wealth, and humanity’s most powerful technologies, applied in ways that incumbents can barely understand.

And it is too early to tell exactly where this new generation will lead us, only that it is to a profoundly different future.

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Snippet:
10/January/2017


Trump's Ignorance

Hugo Salinas Price
The president-elect of the US, Mr. Trump, does not know what he is doing when he proposes protectionist measures to encourage the reindustrialization of the US and bring home again, the American industry that emigrated to foreign lands.

The US lost their industry as a result of the Bretton Woods Agreements, which were signed (under pressure) by representatives of the allied countries and of the countries conquered by the US in World War II. Those Agreements established the world's monetary system for the post-war world, after the victory of the Allies, which was already in sight in 1944.

The monetary system was to be based on gold, which would be the world's reserve currency, supplemented by the American dollar, which was to be considered "as good as gold". So the world's monetary system was founded upon a lie: that a promise can be as good as the physical thing it promises.

This lie has accumulated a negative "karma" for the US since the moment it was pronounced, and the financial disaster which will overtake the world in the not-distant future is its consequence.

In 1960, the economist Robert Triffin detected the central problem residing in the Bretton Woods Agreements. I detected the same problem without having any knowledge of "Triffin's Paradox", as it has come to be known. Many years ago, sitting in my office smoking my cigar and contemplating the world's financial situation, I came to the same conclusion as Triffin.

In a few words, it turns out that for the international monetary system established at Bretton Woods to function, the US is forced to run a permanent trade deficit with the rest of the world. Year after year, the US must purchase more from the rest of the world, than what the US sells to the rest of the world, thus creating a permanent flow of dollars to the rest of the world. This flow makes possible the creation of Monetary Reserves in the Central Banks of the rest of the world.

Without this constant flow of dollars from the US to the International Reserves of the Central Banks of the world, the currencies issued by those Central Banks would cease to exist. If Banco de México, the Mexican Central Bank, does not have dollars in its Reserves, then Mexicans do not have money: without dollar Reserves, the Mexican peso would not be worth peanuts - at least, in international terms.

To obtain dollars, it is necessary to sell to American customers some products at a lower price than that demanded by an American producer. It is self-evident that there is no other form of introducing an export into US territory, than using underselling an American competitor.

This is the reason why a large part of what was once the great American manufacturing industry has disappeared: the overwhelming need of the rest of the world to export to the US, to obtain dollars, caused the deindustrialization of the US.

It is quite unjust to blame the rest of the world for having caused the deindustrialization of the US and to point an accusing finger at Mexico, for instance, as an enemy of the US because it has been a successful exporter of manufactures to the US. Mexico has simply been operating according to the rules established by the US itself in the Bretton Woods Agreements: the dollar is the world's currency, and at all costs, it is imperative to have dollars for Mexico to have a monetary system.

If Mr. Trump should attempt to eliminate or reduce the US trade deficit and protect and encourage US reindustrialization using tariffs on imports, what he would achieve would be to choke the economies of the rest of the world with a scarcity of dollars obtained - how else? - by exports to the US.

Choking on dollar scarcity, because exports to the US decline or are eliminated, the world will not remain in paralysis. Another alternative to the dollar as the world's currency will be sought, simply because finding an alternative becomes a matter of life or death.

What can take the place of the dollar? Possibly it will be the SDR - the "Special Drawing Rights" created by the International Monetary Fund - another huge lie that has been nicknamed "paper gold". No one knows how what sort of acceptance will be given to this monetary fantasy.

On the other hand, there is gold, latent but repressed: true money that implies a world of balanced trade where there can be no trade deficits or trade surpluses.

Mr. Trump does not know it, but applying a policy of protectionism for American industry through tariffs on imports means the death of the world's monetary system based on the dollar.

Postscript: Dr. Agustin Carstens, Governor of the Bank of Mexico: would it not be convenient to think about the silver coin, given a monetary value by a simple procedure that I suggested years ago?

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1. Dec 11, 2016, 2:04pm

1. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 12,956 Posts | Online Now

DRAIN THE SWAMP :-)

Who said that?

Please read the following article. http://townhall.com/columnists/johns...swamp-n2252366

Snippet:
Drain the Swamp!
http://media.townhall.com/townhall/ColPics/Stossel.jpg
John Stossel
|
Posted: Nov 30, 2016 12:01 AM

President-elect Trump says he's uniquely qualified to "drain the swamp" in Washington, D.C. He can do it, he said at one debate, because as a businessman, he understands American cronyism. "With Hillary Clinton, I said, 'Be at my wedding,' and she came to my wedding. Do you know why? She had no choice because I gave."

He said that's why he gives money to politicians from both parties. "When they call, I give. And when I need something from them two years later, three years later, I call them. They are there for me!"

That's crony capitalism. Ideally, laws are applied equally; no one gets a special break because he gives money. But today's complex government allows the politically connected to corrupt ... most everything.

Even parts of the government swamp designed to protect consumers, like Dodd-Frank banking rules, get corrupted. Banks watch little changes in rules far more closely than you ever will. Then they exploit them. Bank lobbyists make money off complex laws like Dodd-Frank. They fight tooth and nail to keep them, not abolish them.

Congress recently almost got rid of one obvious example of crony capitalism, the Export-Import Bank. To encourage exports of American products, bureaucrats give loans to Boeing and other big companies.

Some principled Republicans tried to eliminate this corporate welfare, but Ex-Im loans were voted back in during the final hours of budget negotiations.
Government programs rarely die.

Businesses in cozy relationships with the government don't die either. Jeff Deist, president of the free-market Mises Institute, says when the housing bubble burst, banks should have been allowed to fail and put through "the bankruptcy and liquidation process."


Investors would have lost big, but that's OK, says Deist. "That's the difference between free-market capitalism and state capitalism. With state capitalism, there are upsides for the parties involved -- but no downsides."

In the swamp, no one but taxpayers pays for their mistakes.

Politicians routinely promise to change this culture, but once they get to D.C., they lose interest, says Trump.
"They go to Washington, something happens - they become weak. ... I promise this is not going to happen to me."

I want to believe him. But even if he were an utterly principled man -- and I await evidence of that -- it's tough to constantly say "no" to people.
When you're in Congress, people ask you for money all day. "I need a grant for my charity -- we do so much good!" "My business needs a subsidy/protective tariff -- we employ so many people -- in your state!" So it goes, week after week.

Few people bother to go to Washington to ask for spending cuts. Even though America is heading toward bankruptcy, 90 percent of congressional testimony comes from people who want more stuff.

Politicians' cronies get more stuff. Solyndra got half a billion dollars from President Obama. The company went bankrupt, which shouldn't be a surprise. Government has no way of knowing which ideas will succeed.

But it's well worth it for companies to invest in lobbyists and fixers who dive into the swamp to extract subsidies.

For taxpayers? Not so much. While the benefits to lobbyists are concentrated, taxpayer costs are diffuse. Solyndra cost each of us a couple of bucks. Will you go to Washington to pester your congressman about that? Probably not.

Comments from Benjamin: We start to see a picture now that 60,000,000 Americans are starting to see and without understanding it KNOW that the STATUS QUO must change to make America great again.

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