Harmonic Wave Journal

Not yet below 240, so far it's on track tho. Now it looks like GBP/JPY will try to bomb the stops above first. To 247s maybe before resuming major correction? Let's make a guess.

USD/JPY has confusing waves now imo. But it bounced exactly so far at 78.6% retracement of previous impulse (was labeled big wave 3 (116.37 - 124.13), but it's questionable now).

Opportunity #E22/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3712
Stop (initial): 1.3672

End of subwave A or 1 or 4 down (?).

Update 1: Set TP1 at 1.3744 for +32. S/L will move to 1.3696 once TP1 is hit.
Update 2: S/L tightened to 1.3691 (guarantees -21).
Update 3: TP1 was hit for +32. S/L tightened to 1.3728 (guarantees +16).
Update 4: Game over for +16 x2.

Total gain: +64

Opportunity #E23/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3646
Stop (initial): 1.3606

End of first 5-wave sequence, end of wave A or 1 (?).

Opportunity #G32/07
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0278
Stop (initial): 2.0228

End of first 5-wave sequence, end of wave 1 or A (?).

Opportunity #G32/07
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0278
Stop (initial): 2.0228

End of first 5-wave sequence, end of wave 1 or A (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 2.0318 (+40). S/L tightened to 2.0278 (guarantees breakeven).

Oi! Leave my GBPUSD shorts in peace!

Currently going by an ABC logic myself, but waiting to see what'll get hit...

2.0260 wold be nice. Wouldn't mind 2.0200 either.


You and your high risk maneuvers

Good job =)

Opportunity #E23/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3646
Stop (initial): 1.3606

End of first 5-wave sequence, end of wave A or 1 (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.3638 (guarantees -8).

Opportunity #G32/07
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0278
Stop (initial): 2.0228

End of first 5-wave sequence, end of wave 1 or A (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 2.0318 (+40). S/L tightened to 2.0278 (guarantees breakeven).
Update 2: Stopped out at breakeven.

Total gain: +40


Opportunity #E23/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3646
Stop (initial): 1.3606

End of first 5-wave sequence, end of wave A or 1 (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.3638 (guarantees -8).
Update 2: Stopped out for -8 x3.

Total gain: -24

Done for the week. Enjoy weekend everyone.

Is anyone counting...


Just curious whether anyone had any opinion on this one's lunatic's count on USDJPY =)

Don't know diddley about counts but we are sitting right on the 62% retrace from the move up started on 5 March. We have divergences on daily charts w's % R and rsi for move up.

However if we break below current levels and yesterdays low just above 117.55 (which level contained an admittedly much smaller drop on 19 Apr) then we could fall back to where we started on 5 Mar at 115.00?

Is the carry trade over, no but I think the US stock market drop has a lot of fund managers cutting short their positions. They will definitely borrow low interest jpy to buy elsewhere though soon enough, they have to for their returns.

Hi SL, you´ve started me thinking....´here´s an alternative. I´m not certain at what stage a correction (ABC) is allowed to become an impulsive (1,2,3,4,5) move.

Either way, USDJPY has retraced more than 62%, whilst GBPJPY has only managed just over 38%, leaving it open to a further fall to complete its correction.....which would suggest a further drop in USDJPY......mm back to waiting for the BoE announcement.

Post at http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...&postcount=708

Well, turns out I am not that blind after all.

Retested 1.1985 as I guessed and bounced BUT then pulled through. Didn't realize the e would be THAT strong!!! But here is the updated count now, only had to change the height of the e:

Cable is still prolly in its corrective big wave 4 of even bigger wave 5 up. Wave (red) B might have already or nearly finished by now. Wave C might reach 2.0000 area or below before resuming uptrend as final big wave 5 and then confirm a very big ending diagonal wave 5 (?).

EUR/USD has similar wave count as Cable with subwave (orange) B or 2 up already or nearly done; only that in what bigger wave it is now, might it be wave A down? Abit confusing in longer term wave count now.

USD/JPY resumed its downtrend, thus making previous big wave 4 hypothesis as invalid. Now it looks like to be forming a long 5-wave sequence from 124+ top (it's prolly in wave 5 now). Prolly in a big wave A of an even bigger wave 2 down (correction of a long rally from 109 bottom last year as very big wave 1).

GBP/JPY really went down to below 240 (so far until just above 23.6% retracement of very big wave 3 (192.61 - 251.09) at 237.30). Next target after this area is 38.2% retracement at 228+. Pretty far away to go, right?

Weekly review (last week as this week I took a break):

Total trades closed = 3, winners = 2, losers = 1
Total gain in winners = 104, total loss in losers = 24
Net gain last week = +80

No short-term and medium-long term trades open.

July monthly review:
4 weeks this month, 16 weeks (1 week break not counted) since start on the Easter Day 7th April
Total trades closed = 9, winners = 6, losers = 3
Winning weeks = 3, 1 losing week
Net gain this month = +1019 (approx. +30.9% of capital)
Successful wave riding (capturing at least 50% of wave) = 2
Net gain since start of journal = +5341 (approx. +293.8% compounded return)

I won't trade as often as last time now as my classes have started again.

Good luck to everyone next week and in August.

HUGSIES! Welcome back Traex and THANK YOU for having the same counts on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY ;D

Well, although I miscounted USDJPY by "1" so to say. Thought we were making a 4 wave, instead it appears it's only 3.4 we just finished and are heading down to around 115.80 perhaps in the 3.5? Well, in some sort of Wave 5 either way, who's counting, right? ;p

Just wanted to post my humble attempt as well.

I would also love to hear your opinion on USDCHF, as I am TOTALLY lost on that on the last few weeks on the longer term count..will post in a second.

BTW, if USDJPY is in an impulse down and USDJPY, too, then GBPJPY won't be able to make any higher high and we'd have to assume that that in turn will attempt to make new lows in the CURRENT move already, no?

All three counts would have to match since all that GJ is is a product of GU x UJ, right?


And I see a C down on GU coming and USDJPY moving to break that 118. If we do break 118 and go C down on GU, well, then GJ is ready to be hurdled down into a world of pain


My secret magic fibs hint at 115.80 - 116.85 as highly likely target area for UJ for now ;p

I hope you don't mind me having a shot. I'd love to hear your opinion, even if it is all very amateurish

Big pic. This is only the last partial swing of the rather GIGANTIC one, but that'd be too much to use. Some projections from the 1-2-3.
It lines up perfectly if we drop without any new retrace high right now.