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  • #9,621
  • Jan 11, 2025 9:25am Jan 11, 2025 9:25am
Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} If things turn around quickly next week you may be right, and I hope that you are, but the candles and MACD haven’t turned around yet. {image}
.

I think for the MACD to change there must be a significant upward push. Although I don't tend to rely much on MACD changes in and of itself.
GOOD LUCK!
  • #9,622
  • Jan 12, 2025 10:29pm Jan 12, 2025 10:29pm
The EUR/USD experienced a sharp decline this morning after hitting 1.0250. Current resistance has capped any potential upward movement, and the pair has now reached the Friday low of 1.0211. If it trades below this level, there could be further downside movement towards 1.0200. If the bulls fail to push the price higher from here, the pair might continue to fall towards the next support level at 1.0155.

Happy week!


Daily volatility (range) 58 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.0475 (EU4.09b), 1.0300 (EU3.35b), 1.0200 (EU2.98b) Source: financialjuice.com

1 hour
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-01-13_06-27-36.png Size: 74 KB
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,623
  • Jan 13, 2025 12:02am Jan 13, 2025 12:02am
FX option expiries for 13 jan 25 - 10am New York cut
- 1.0200 (€3.9bn)
- 1.0250 (€2.5bn)
- 1.0300 (€5.1bn)
- 1.0310 ((€2.4bn)
- 1.0325 (€526m)
- 1.0375 (€3.4bn)

if the price goes below 1.02 today before the NewYork cut then I think it will be blood bath for this pair because there are huge options expiring for this pair on Tuesday and Wednesday

FX option expiries for 14 jan 25 - 10am New York cut
- 1.0200 (€2.6bn)

FX option expiries for 15 jan 25 - 10am New York cut
- 1.0200 (€2.1bn)
  • #9,624
  • Jan 13, 2025 3:37am Jan 13, 2025 3:37am
I'm sure it will retrace, but in the bigger picture this thing can't even come up for air. I've been milking this thing like a prized cow

Just a side not but as an European this is just sad but expected and i don't think i can see any improvements in the near future, too many problem and too many structural problems. China and the US will just leave us in the dust, even with their own problems, they are on another league. Maybe I'm just too pessimistic idk
  • #9,625
  • Jan 13, 2025 4:16am Jan 13, 2025 4:16am
Quoting Polimini
I'm sure it will retrace, but in the bigger picture this thing can't even come up for air. I've been milking this thing like a prized cow Just a side not but as an European this is just sad but expected and i don't think i can see any improvements in the near future, too many problem and too many structural problems. China and the US will just leave us in the dust, even with their own problems, they are on another league. Maybe I'm just too pessimistic idk
It retraces now but below 1.0211 previous low. The drop can be swift. Hold on your chair!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,626
  • Jan 13, 2025 10:48am Jan 13, 2025 10:48am
Today, the EURUSD pair dropped sharply below 1.0211 in the early London session due to a strong US Non-Farm Payrolls report. It continued to fall, hitting a new two-year low below 1.0200, influenced by risk-aversion, hawkish Fed expectations, and dovish ECB comments. Later in the US open, it traded around key technical levels, including a significant long-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the lows of September 2022 to the highs of July 2023.

For now the pair is anticipated to face continued bearish pressure, potentially testing the weekly support at 1.0155, with immediate resistance at 1.0231 & 1.0250 zone.

Have a great rest of the day!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,627
  • Jan 13, 2025 11:08am Jan 13, 2025 11:08am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 24 KB
  • #9,628
  • Jan 13, 2025 4:19pm Jan 13, 2025 4:19pm
eurusd h4
we are close to resistance

trendlines
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 144 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #9,629
  • Edited Jan 14, 2025 12:34am Jan 13, 2025 10:38pm | Edited Jan 14, 2025 12:34am
The EUR/USD rose past the 1.0250 resistance level following news of a soft pace to Trump's tariffs, but it later fell back due to lack of sustained trader interest. It appears the pair might now trade within a range, with resistance at 1.0277 and support at the psychologically important 1.0200. Should it surpass this resistance, the next targets could be the weekly pivot at 1.0295 and then 1.0300. If the EUR/USD declines further, it may test the lows around 1.0177.

Green pips!


Daily volatility (range) 64 pips

Option expiries for Tuesday: 1.0200 (EU2.71b), 1.0500 (EU1.18b), 1.0400 (EU727.1m) Source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US PPI

1 hour
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-01-14_06-36-23.png Size: 94 KB


Possible drop to 1.0200 or lower below 1.0238 - 30 min chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-01-14_08-29-28.png Size: 65 KB
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  • #9,630
  • Jan 13, 2025 11:52pm Jan 13, 2025 11:52pm
President Trump's economic team is considering a gradual increase in tariffs for china and European goods in order to control inflation
Eur/usd bulls are expected to take advantage
  • #9,631
  • Jan 14, 2025 3:03am Jan 14, 2025 3:03am
Looks like the bull has left the building!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,632
  • Jan 14, 2025 3:14am Jan 14, 2025 3:14am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Looks like the bull has left the building!
Waiting game for PPI news, 14.30 today
  • #9,633
  • Jan 14, 2025 3:25am Jan 14, 2025 3:25am
Quoting ayodeyleh
{quote} Waiting game for PPI news, 14.30 today
Yes its going to be interesting to see. Until then scalping allowed!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,634
  • Jan 14, 2025 7:33am Jan 14, 2025 7:33am
Finally some bad USD news PPI
Consistency is key
  • #9,635
  • Jan 14, 2025 7:48am Jan 14, 2025 7:48am
Quoting death-wish
{quote} its not bad news for USD, let the dust settle before making trades
Red is bad. It did not meet expectations and that’s been rare for usd lately no matter what news it has been. Is it devastating? No and I didn’t say it was. I also don’t trade based on it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_1059.png Size: 169 KB
Consistency is key
  • #9,636
  • Jan 14, 2025 7:53am Jan 14, 2025 7:53am
Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} Red is bad. It did not meet expectations and that’s been rare for usd lately no matter what news it has been. Is it devastating? No and I didn’t say it was. I also don’t trade based on it. {image}
ya bad figures however think bulls struggling
  • #9,637
  • Jan 14, 2025 8:00am Jan 14, 2025 8:00am
I got short short 2 contracts on the March 6E futures at 1.03 this morning. I'd prefer to caterpillar my way to riches and hold on, adding contracts to a winning position. This scalping business is no joke! Can be stressful at times
  • #9,638
  • Jan 14, 2025 9:17am Jan 14, 2025 9:17am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD rose past the 1.0250 resistance level following news of a soft pace to Trump's tariffs, but it later fell back due to lack of sustained trader interest. It appears the pair might now trade within a range, with resistance at 1.0277 and support at the psychologically important 1.0200. Should it surpass this resistance, the next targets could be the weekly pivot at 1.0295 and then 1.0300. If the EUR/USD declines further, it may test the lows around 1.0177. Green pips! Daily volatility (range) 64 pips Option...
1.0238 survived. Lets see now!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-01-14_17-15-09.png Size: 65 KB
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,639
  • Jan 14, 2025 10:05am Jan 14, 2025 10:05am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} 1.0238 survived. Lets see now! {image}
Done with weekly R1. A retrace to 1.0250 from here or from 1.0300/06/12 should be next.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,640
  • Jan 14, 2025 10:10am Jan 14, 2025 10:10am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Done with weekly R1. A retrace to 1.0250 from here or from 1.0300/06/12 should be next.
I think 0320-40 will act as a strong resistance until CPI.
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